september 19 experimental probability

8/4/2019 September 19 Experimental Probability

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September 19, 2012

Warm Up: Part IWrite the equivalent percent.1. 2.3. 4. 25%30%

16%20%

Objective: We will determine the experimental probability ofan event and share ideas using probability to makepredictions.Vocabulary: experiment, trial, outcome, sample space, event,

probability, prediction


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An experiment is an activity involving chance. Eachrepetition or observation of an experiment is a trial, andeach possible result is an outcome. The sample space ofan experiment is the set of all possible outcomes.


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Example 1: Identifying Sample Spaces and Outcomes

Identify the sample space and the outcome shown foreach experiment.

A. Rolling a number cubeSample space:{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Outcome shown: 4

B. Spinning a spinnerSample space:{red, green,orange, purple}

Outcome shown: green


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An event is an outcome or set of outcomes in anexperiment. Probability is the measure of how likely anevent is to occur. Probabilities are written as fractions or

decimals from 0 to 1, or as percents from 0% to 100%.


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ImpossibleAs likely as not

Certain

Unlikely Likely

0%

Events with aprobability of 0%

never happen.

50%

Events with a probabilityof 50% have the same

chance of happening asnot.

100%

Events with aprobability of

100% alwayshappen.


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Example 2: Estimating the Likelihood of an Event

Write impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, orcertainto describe each event.

A. A shoe selected from a pair of shoes fits the right foot.

as likely as not

B. Katrina correctly guesses the last digit of a phonenumber. unlikely

C. Max pulls a green marble from a bag of all green marbles.

certain

D. A randomly selected month contains the letter R.

likely


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You can estimate the probability of an event byperforming an experiment. The experimentalprobability of an event is the ratio of the number of

times the event occurs to the number of trials. The moretrials performed, the more accurate the estimate will be.


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Example 3A: Finding Experimental Probability

7Pink8Purple

10Orange

15Green

FrequencyOutcomeAn experiment consists ofspinning a spinner. Use theresults in the table to find theexperimental probability of the

event.

Spinner lands on orange


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Example 3B: Finding Experimental Probability

7Pink8Purple

10Orange

15Green

FrequencyOutcomeAn experiment consists ofspinning a spinner. Use theresults in the table to find theexperimental probability of the

event.

Spinner does not land on green


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You can use experimental probability to makepredictions. A prediction is an estimate or guessabout something that has not yet happened.


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Example 4A:Quality Control Application

A manufacturer inspects 500 strollers and finds that 498have no defects.

What is the experimental probability that a strollerchosen at random has no defects?

Find the experimental probability that a stroller has nodefects.

= 99.6%

The experimental probability that a stroller has no defects is99.6%.


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Example 4B:Manufacturing Application

A manufacturer inspects 500 strollers and finds that 498have no defects.

The manufacturer shipped 3500 strollers to a

distribution center. Predict the number of strollers thatare likely to have no defects.

Find 99.6% of 3500.

0.996(3500) = 3486

The prediction is that 3486 strollers will have no defects.

september 19 experimental probability

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