september 2009 harrisonburg & rockingham county real estate market report

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  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

    1/16

    September 2009

    Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

    Real Estate Market Report

    and Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker,

    Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors

    provided courtesy of

    October 8, 2009

  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    Perhaps as a result of the $8,000 tax credit, this month we see that home sales

    were not as low as could be expected given the year-to-date trends. During the rst

    nine months of this year, we have seen an overall decline of 21% in home sales, yetSeptember 2009 versus September 2008 only shows a 11% decline. Furthermore,

    both the median sales price and average sales price increased when comparing

    September 2009 sales to September 2008 sales. The year-to-date median and

    average sales prices are sll showing declines (4%, 2%), so we wont call this a trendyet -- but hopefully a sign of posive changes to come.

    Harrisonburg & Rockingham County October 8, 2009

    # Home Sales 2008 2009 % Change

    September 80 71 -11.25%

    Year To Date 762 603 -20.87%

    762

    603

    2008 2009

    Median Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change

    September $199,942 $203,000 1.53%

    Year To Date $197,900 $190,000 -3.99%

    $198k $189k

    2008 2009

    Average Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change

    September $216,034 $219,781 1.73%

    Year To Date $223,704 $219,956 -1.68%

    $225k $220k

    Average Days on Market 2008 2009 % Change

    September 200 219 9.50%

    Year To Date 167 189 13.17%

    157190

    2008 2009

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    Between 2005 and 2008, sales declined an average of 28% between August and

    September. This year, however, we have only seen an 8% decline in home sales.

    This, again, is likely an elevated number of home sales related to the $8,000 taxcredit to rst me home buyers. The deadline for closing on a home as a rst me

    buyer to receive the $8,000 tax credit is November 30th, thus we will likely connue

    to see relavely strong sales through October and November, at least in the lower

    price ranges, and as compared to previous years. Within the next month we shouldalso know whether Congress will extend this tax credit.

    200

    Month-By-Month Home Sales History

    2005

    2006

    1752007

    2008

    2009

    125

    150

    CondoSales

    95

    100

    ,Townhom

    e

    57

    75

    86

    77

    71

    50

    75

    SingleFamil

    37

    51

    25

    0

    JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    This graph tracks the overall pace of home sales in our market, aer eliminang

    the seasonal increases and decreases that we always experience regardless of

    the annual pace of sales. Each data point on this graph represents the sum of theprevious 12 months of home sales, thus the most recent data point is showing the

    total number of home sales between October 1, 2008 and September 30, 2009.

    Home sales connue to decline when examined from this perspecve, and I predict

    that we may see several more months of declines before this trendline (hopefully)stabilizes and starts to slowly increase.

    1,800

    Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All HomesSum of Preceding 12 Months

    1,600

    1,200

    ,

    800

    1,000

    600

    200

    400

    0

    Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    This graph provides excellent overall insight into the performance of the residenal

    real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We see, via the yellow

    bars, that the pace of home sales will likely again show a decline when 2009 drawsto a close, though we are not likely to see another 25% decline as we experienced

    between 2007 and 2008. The median sales price, shown with the blue line, connues

    to stay relavely stable, though with a slight decrease when comparing 2008 and

    2009. This decrease is actually a bit larger when considering the changes in thecontext of moderate year to year inaon.

    $250,0001,800

    Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes & Townhomes

    1,507

    1,669

    1,438$195,

    100

    $195,

    500

    $190,

    000

    $200,000

    1,600

    +14%

    +11%

    -14%

    +1% +0.2%

    1,071

    1,153

    1,324

    1,248

    ,900

    $192,

    983

    1,200

    ,-13%

    -25%

    +15%

    +8%

    +14%

    +14%

    829

    936

    0 ,900

    ,588

    7,

    700 $

    149,

    00

    0 $169 ,

    800

    1,000+29%

    +6%

    -0.3% +4%

    +17%

    603$116,

    0

    $122

    $122

    $12 $100,000

    600

    $50,000

    200

    400

    $00

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    Single family homes connue to show a moderate decline in median sales price, as

    shown by the blue line in this graph. We have now seen an overall decline of 7.8%

    between 2006 and 2009 year-to-date. This averages out to an approximate 2.5%decline per year during this me frame. This decline is unfortunate for home owners,

    but is quite mild within the context of sales price and value declines seen in most

    other parts of Virginia and the naon as a whole. The pace of single family homes

    also connues to slow, with only 412 home sales thus far this year, as compared tothe total of 654 sales in 2008.

    $275,0001,200

    Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes

    1,024 1,025 $226,8

    00

    $223,

    57

    5

    $215,

    000

    $209,

    000

    $225,0001,000+16%

    n/a-11% -1% -4%

    868851

    880

    798

    0

    $210,

    000

    $175,000800

    -12%

    -18%

    +3%-2%

    +29%

    +24%

    +

    674654

    ,850

    133,

    239

    136,

    000

    $147,

    000 $1

    70,

    0

    $125,000600+9%

    +2%+8%

    +16%

    412$122 $

    $75,000400

    $25,000200

    -$25,0000

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    Between 2006 and 2008, townhomes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County

    managed to escape the general sales price declines seen in the overall residenal

    market. However, it appears that there will be a small downward shi in this medianhome price by the me 2009 comes to a close. Thankfully, however, there has been a

    relavely small year-to-year shi in the number of townhomes in 2009 compared to

    2008. This is in contrast to the staggering 37% decline in townhome sales between

    2007 and 2008. This may be related to the $8,000 tax credit for rst me homebuyers, as many rst me buyers purchase townhomes.

    0

    700

    Home Sales & Price Trends

    Townhomes

    644

    $160,

    85

    0

    $163,8

    00

    $167,

    25

    $163,

    000

    $160,000

    $180,000

    600

    +33% +19%

    +2%+2%

    444

    483

    450

    ,100

    4,

    950

    $120,000

    $140,000500

    +9%

    -18% -15%

    +14%

    302282

    $89,0

    00

    $94

    ,600

    $10

    $108,

    200

    $118,5

    00 $

    1

    $100,000

    300

    400

    -37%

    +47%

    +6%

    +9%

    +5%+10%

    155

    203191 $60,000

    ,

    200

    +49%

    +31%

    $20,000

    $40,000

    100

    $00

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    While our local market sll has an excess of supply of homes for sale (as shown on

    the next page), we do sll see a decline in overall inventory levels when comparing

    September 2009 to September 2008. Ulmately, however, we will need to see moreof a decline to return to a closer balance between buyers and sellers. If last years

    trend is any indicaon, we should start to see steady declines in inventory as we

    move through October, November, December and January -- as many homeowners

    decide to take their homes o the market during this me frame. This will mean(perhaps only marginally) fewer choices for buyers.

    1200

    Inventory Levels

    944

    909888

    932 928 932904

    917 914

    1000

    866

    828

    794

    838

    800

    600

    400

    200

    0

    Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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    October 8, 2009

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    Another measurement of value over me is shown in the median price per square

    foot of single family homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- pictured

    above. As can be seen, this value has gradually shied down since 2006, as we sawin the median sales price of single family homes during this same me period. This

    is not an absolute guide on what to expect to pay for a house in todays market, since

    this median value includes new homes, very old homes, homes with and without

    basements and garages, and many other variaons of homes that could aect theoversimplied value judgement of price per square foot.

    $150.00

    Median Price Per Square Foot TrendsSingle Family Homes

    $113 $

    119

    $123

    $126

    $13

    0

    $13

    1

    $125

    $129

    $128

    $127

    $126

    $125

    $126

    $121

    $115

    $116

    $120

    $117

    $125.00

    24 3 $

    86

    $87

    $92

    $90

    $96

    $99

    $105

    $105

    $100.00

    $

    76

    $73

    $73

    $73

    $

    76

    $77

    $7

    4 $78

    $79

    $80

    $8 $ $

    $75.00

    $50.00

    $25.00

    $0.00

    2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    Expect to pay a bit more per square foot for smaller homes --- it has been that way

    for almost 10 years now. The graph above shows how median price per square foot

    varies based on the size of the house in queson. Interesngly, the median price persquare foot of mid-sized and large homes have remained relavely closely paired

    over the past nine years, but have separated quite dramacally over the past year.

    Price per square foot of the largest homes in our market is now just over $100 per

    square foot, while the median price per square foot of mid-sized homes is muchcloser to the overall median value for this metric.

    Median Price Per Square Foot by Home SizeSingle Family Homes

    0 - 1 ,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF

    $138$140

    $133

    140

    150

    $123

    $128

    $123 $123

    $116

    $120

    $122120

    130

    $105

    $113

    $106

    $119

    $115

    $105

    110

    $84

    $89

    $93

    $84

    $94

    $9290

    $77

    $71

    $74

    $77

    $71 $72

    $83

    70

    80

    60

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    The graph above illustrates the drasc decrease in lot sales that our local market

    has experienced over the past several years. With lot sizes smaller than one acre,

    most of these lots are in subdivisions, on public water and sewer. The main causefor this drasc decrease is that new construcon has slowed -- most builders are no

    longer buying building lots and building houses speculavely. Furthermore, many lot

    end users are no longer considering building, because of changing circumstances

    with their nances, or because of general economic and market uncertaines. Thedecrease in median lot prices is not surprising, given the large decrease in sales.

    $120,000450

    Lot Sales & Median Prices

    less than 1 acre

    408

    $99,

    900

    $100,000

    400

    261

    304

    $76,

    500

    ,250

    $80,000300

    201

    247

    ,000

    $54,5

    00

    $58,

    300

    $6

    $60,000

    200

    250

    165

    111$26,

    000

    $30,

    500

    $32,

    208

    $36,

    900

    $42

    $40,000150

    8574

    30

    $20,000

    50

    100

    $00

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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    October 8, 2009

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    Land sales of parcels larger than one acre have not decreased as signicantly as

    small lot sales have. We connue to see a decline, but aside from the spike in land

    sales in 2005, there has always been quite a bit of variaon in the number of landsales happening in a given year. Of note, however, the median price per acre of the

    land that is selling has slipped tremendously over the past two years, from a high

    of $24k per acre down to the current level of $15k per acre. This is likely to slip a

    bit further if land sales connue to decline, or even if they connue to stay at theircurrent low level.

    $30,000180

    Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre

    1 acre or more

    168

    $24,

    184

    250

    $25,000

    160

    107 $17,

    713

    0

    $21,

    24

    $20,000120

    87

    76 77

    83

    $12,

    003

    $15,

    00

    $15,

    4

    $15,000

    80

    100

    58

    42

    53$8,

    245

    $8,

    333

    $9,

    535

    $10,00060

    30$8,

    234

    $5,000

    20

    40

    $00

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    This graph isolates new or almost new single family homes that have sold for each of

    the past ten years. We have seen a steady decline in the number of new construcon

    single family homes selling since 2005, but of note, the median price per square footof these homes has not shied as much as we might otherwise expect. While this

    metric includes houses with signicant variaon in their characteriscs (basement,

    garage, lot size), this price per square foot metric can likely be a helpful rule of thumb

    in discussing price per square foot or building costs with a builder.

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

    200

    New Construction Single Family Home Sales TrendsNumber of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot

    186

    158

    200

    160

    180

    138 137

    121

    140 139

    $150

    146

    $144

    $138

    150140

    89

    109

    05 $

    114

    $133

    $

    100

    100

    56

    $87 $

    94 $

    9 $

    60

    80

    50

    20

    40

    00

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    Most homes that sell (62%) are selling (and closing) within six months of coming

    onto the market. This, of course, does not factor in the many (many) homes that

    languish on the market and do not sell -- leading to a higher average days on marketstasc. Given that it typically takes 45 - 60 days to move from a raed contract to

    the closing table, it is quite remarkable that a full 30% of home sales in the past six

    months have taken place within 3 months of the date when those properes came

    on the market. This means that they were under contract within the rst 30 or 45days of being listed, which is likely a surprising gure for many hopeful sellers.

    Harrison urg Roc ing am County

    Days on Market Analysis

    Residential Listings Sold Apr '09 - Sept '09

    1 - 2 years

    < 2 years

    4

    1%

    0 - 3 months

    139

    30%9 - 12 months

    12%

    10%

    6 - 9 months

    67

    15%

    3 - 6 months

    147

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.

  • 8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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    October 8, 2009

    1 7/ / 3:1 :3

    The me that it takes to sell a home in todays market varies quite signicantly based

    on the price range of the home in queson. For example, a full 37% of homes that

    sold for less than $200,000 sold in the rst 90 days of being on the market, whileonly 7% of homes between $300,000 and $400,000 were able to sell in that same

    me period. On the other end of the spectrum, only 9% of homes that sold for less

    than $200,000 took more than a year to sell, but a full 26% of homes priced over

    $400,000 took over a year to sell.

    Days on Market Analysis by Price RangeApril 2009 - September 2009

    0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years

    31% 32% 15% 10% 12%All Homes

    37% 31% 13% 11% 9%Under $200k

    27% 33% 17% 6% 14% 2%$200k - $300k

    7% 40% 24% 14% 14%$300k - $400k

    26% 26% 7% 15% 26%$400k and up

    0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

    A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.