september 4, 2013seasonal and extended range prediction groupslide 1 forecast verification

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September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 1 Forecast Verification Forecast Verification

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Page 1: September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification

September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 1

Forecast VerificationForecast Verification

Page 2: September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification

September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 2

Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013

Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11

member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final

forecasted onset date.Y axis on each panel is in

mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for

850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset

date and also written at the top of each panel

Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013

Page 3: September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification

September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 3

NCEP/TRMMAnalysis

Wind (850hPa)and R/F

Verification

CFSv2 GFSbc

F/C from16May IC

F/C from16May IC

Page 4: September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification

September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 4

NCEP/TRMMAnalysis

Wind (850hPa)and R/F

Verification

CFSv2 GFSbc

F/C from26May IC

F/C from26May IC

Page 5: September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification

September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 5

16 May IC 21 May IC

MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS

Page 6: September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification

September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 6

26 May IC 31 May IC

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days