sesnewyork09 brand bubble jgerzema
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Corporate strategy on (Online) Branding in crisis 2009TRANSCRIPT
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CALAMITY:MARKETING YOUR WAY OUT OF THIS RECESSION
Source: Conde Naste Portfolio, January 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam2
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
RESULTS 1–10 OF ABOUT22,200,000 FOR RECESSIONAND MARKETING
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FUNDAMENTAL SOCIETAL SHIFTFROM A CREDIT TO A CONFIDENCE CRISIS
SEA CHANGES IN CONSUMER BEHAVIORS
COMPANIES MUST CHANGE
HOW THEY CONNECT WITH CONSUMERS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam4
MANAGING FOR AN UPTURN
SUSTAINABLE GROWTHALIGN BRAND AND BUSINESS STRATEGYACQUIRE TALENT AND QUALITYDO MORE WITH LESSSHARPEN MESSAGING AND ROIRETURN TO YOUR COREFACE YOUR CUSTOMER
5 Source: Y&R Strategy, HBR: Anthony T Jan, John Quelch Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
HALF OF ALL GLOBAL WEALTHHAS EVAPORATED
$36 TRILLION DOLLAR LOSS WORLDWIDES&P 500 DECLINED 64.4% FROM 200045% OF AMERICAN WEALTH FROM LOSS OF EQUITY AND HOUSING VALUESAVERAGE RECESSION IS 6-12 MONTHS. THIS IS A MARATHON
6 Source: Bloomberg, Iconoculture March 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
UNEMPLOYMENT
HOUSING VALUES
EQUITY MARKETS
INTEREST RATES ?
COMMODITY PRICES
IN(STAG)FLATION ?
BAILOUT ?
THE NEW FEAR ECONOMY
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NATIONAL DEBT
DETROIT
CURRENCY VALUATION ?
PROTECTIONISM ?
BANK LENDING
FACTORY & HOUSING STARTS
CREDIT CARD EXPOSURE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
EXCLUDING 2003 / IRAQ WAR PERIOD
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:LOWEST SINCE 1967 (INCEPTION)
Source: ABC News8
THE LARGEST U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT POST WWII
9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
VISUALIZING THE BAILOUT
10 Source: The Atlantic Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
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FRACTURED FAITH INTHE AMERICAN DREAM
11
HOUSING VALUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS THE U.S.
12 Source: “Irrational Exuberance”, 2nd edition, 2006, by Robert J. Schiller Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
AMERICAN’S HOMES NO LONGER PERSONAL LINES OF CREDIT
13 Source:Us Department of Housing and Labor, 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
WHILE THE CREDIT CRISIS HAS HALTED HOUSING STARTS
14 Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
15 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN
UNEMPLOYMENT 8.1%; HIGHEST IN TWENTY-FIVE YEARSTHIRD STRAIGHT MONTH OF 600,000 JOBS LOST
THIS PERIOD MARKED BY MOST JOB LOSSES, WEAKEST RECOVERY
16 Source: Change in Nonfarm Pay rolls, Reported Monthly, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S Dept of Labor Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
17
MILLIONAIRES HAVE LOST ONE-THIRD OF THEIR NET WORTH.
AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY RECESSION
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
AFFLUENT MORTGAGE RATE DEFAULTS
18 Source: LPS Applied Analytics Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
20 Source:New York Times
ONE STORY IN THE AMERICAN NIGHTMARE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
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A GROWING REALITY:
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A MORTGAGE IS FOREVER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam2121
MASLOW UPENDED: MARKETING MUST MOVE FROM PASSION TO COMPASSION
19 Source: American Progress.org February 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
2007
2009
YES WE CAN?
22 Source: Pew Research Center
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“WE HAVE A STRONG CAPITAL POSITION”
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TECTONIC SHIFTS IN CONSUMERISM:
LACK OF LEADERSHIP AND RESPONSIBILITY
SELFISHNESS AND
COLLUSION
PROLONGEDCONFLICTS AND PARTISANSHIPEGREGIOUS
AND CRIMINALBEHAVIOR
FAILURE OF REGULATORS
TAXPAYERS ARE NOW
SHAREHOLDERS
DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE
LACK OFPERMANENCE
TRUST
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LACK OF LEADERSHIPAND RESPONSIBILITY
PROLONGED CONFLICTSAND PARTISANSHIP
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FAILURE OF REGULATORS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
2531
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
TAXPAYERS ARE NOWSHAREHOLDERS
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DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
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LACK OF PERMANENCE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
34
THE NEW CULTURAL FAULT LINE
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28 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam35
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WE EXAMINED 15 YEARSOF DATA FROM BRANDASSETVALUATOR®
WORLD’S LARGESTDATABASE OFBRANDS
OVER 500,00CONSUMERS
40,000 BRANDS
215 STUDIES
ACROSS 44 COUNTRIES
QUARTERLY U.S.PANEL OF 15,000+RESPONDENTS
72 DIFFERENTBRAND METRICS
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Source: Millward Brown Optimor 2007
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam37
BRANDS NOW ACCOUNTFOR 30% OF THE VALUE OFTHE S&P 500
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THE 250 MOST VALUABLEGLOBAL BRANDS ARE$2.197 TRILLION DOLLARSWHICH EXCEEDS THE GDPOF FRANCE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam38
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BRAND ESTEEM ANDREGARD IS DOWN 12%
BRAND AWARENESS HASDECLINED BY 20%
PERCEPTIONS OF BRANDQUALITY HAS ERODED 24%
TRUST IN BRANDS HAS DECLINED BY 50%
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam3939
TRUST IS DESIRABLE, BUT IT HASN’TDIFFERENTIATED
40 Source:BrandAsset Valuator 1993-2007 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
Base: BAV USA Q4 2007, Q4 2008; All AdultsCopyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
IN THE PAST QUARTER, A ‘TRUST VIRUS’INFECTED MANY CATEGORIES
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“I SCREWED UP”42 Source: Barack Obama Press Conference, February 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
CONSUMERS ARE BEGINNINGTO OWN THEIR PROBLEMS
43 Source: Time Magazine Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THEY REALIZE THERE’S A LONG,HARD SLOG AHEAD
44 Source: Reinhart and Rogoff, The Aftermath of Financial Crises, 2009
SAVINGS RATE HAS RISEN IN PAST FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS
45 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
Q4 SPENDING FELL 3.7% FROM Q3 -STEEPEST DECLINE IN 62 YEARS. $3 TRILLION IN SPENDING STOPPED IN Q4, WAS SUSTAINING US GDP
46 Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
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MOST POPULAR TAG’S ABOUT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
Source: Del.icio.us
3948
REATE COMPETITIVE DVANTAGE NOW
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
EVERY RECESSION ENDS...EVENTUALLY
CONSUMERS MOVING FROM ANXIETY TO ACTION
HOW YOU ACT NOW WILL SHAPE YOUR FUTURE
PERFORMANCE
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THE NEW RULES OF ‘POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM’
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
NEW CULTURAL VALUES
NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIORS
NEW MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #1
CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLESPIRIT
CONSUMER STRATEGY = DURABLE LIVING
MANAGEMENT = BRAND THAT PRINCIPLE LASTS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam50
DURABLE LIVING
51 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRITCONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS
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BRAND THAT LASTSCULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVINGMANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
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POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #2
CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY
CONSUMER STRATEGY = EMPATHY AND RESPECT
MANAGEMENT = VALUE AND PRINCIPLE VALUES
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
54 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAYCONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUESEMPATHY AND RESPECT
VALUE AND VALUESCULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUES
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam55
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #3
CULTURAL VALUE = LIQUID LIFE
CONSUMER STRATEGY = DÉCLASSÉCONSUMPTION
MANAGEMENT = DOLLARS AND PRINCIPLE SENSE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam56
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DÉCLASSÉCONSUMPTION
CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFECONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
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DOLLARS AND SENSECULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTIONMANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #4
CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THEFOLD
CONSUMER STRATEGY = COOPERATIVECONSUMERISM
MANAGEMENT = COMMUNITY PRINCIPLE ORGANIZER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam59
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COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM
CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLDCONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
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COMMUNITY ORGANIZERCULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISMMANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
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BAD COMPANIES ARE DESTROYED BY CRISIS. GOOD COMPANIES SURVIVE THEM. GREAT COMPANIES ARE IMPROVED BY THEM.”—ANDY GROVE
THE CHINESE CHARACTER FOR CRISIS ALSO MEANS OPPORTUNITY
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
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THE SEARCH ENGINE ISN’T YOU…IT’S YOUR CONSUMER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam62
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FROM SEARCH OPTIMIZATIONTO BRAND OPTIMIZATION
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam63
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RECESSION-PROOFYOUR BRAND
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