Session 01 1

Hazard Risk Management

Establish the Context

Objectives

Stakeholders

Criteria

Define key elements

Identify the Risks

Hazards analysis

Vulnerability analysis

Analyze the Risks

Review controls

Likelihoods

Consequences

Level of risk

Evaluate the Risks

Evaluate risks

Rank Risks

Treat the Risks

Identify options

Select the best responses

Develop risk treatment plan

Implement

Communicate and Consult

Monitor and Review

Emergency Management Australia, 2002. Emergency Risk Management

Session 01 2

Stan Kaplan’s Theorems of Communication

From the plenary Address at the 1996 Meeting Society for Risk Analysis

Theorem 1: 50% of the problems in the world result from people using the same words with different meanings.

Theorem 2: The other 50% comes from people using different words with the same meaning.

Session 01 3

Meanings of the word

RISK

RISK

ColloquialDangerVenture

Opportunity

TechnicalHazard

ProbabilityConsequence

InsuranceChance

Uncertainty

Jardine and Hrudley, 1997. “Mixed Messages in Risk Communication”

Session 01 4

Etymology of ‘RISK’

• The Arabic word risq - “anything that has been given to you [by God] and from which you draw profit.”

• The Latin word risicum - maritime term, described the scenario faced by sailors attempting to circumvent dangers posed by a barrier reef.

From F. Wharton, “Risk Management: Basic Concepts and General Principles”

Session 01 5

RISK

The product of a hazard’s likelihood of occurrence and its consequences to society.

RISK =

LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE

Session 01 6

HAZARDS

“Events or physical conditions that have the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or loss.”

- FEMA, 1997

FEMA. 1997. Multi Hazard Identification and Assessment. FEMA. Washington, D.C.

Session 01 7

What makes something a hazard?

If a storm occurs at sea, in an area of no shipping traffic

and where there are no land masses, is it a hazard?

Session 01 8

DISASTER

“A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material, or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources”

- The United Nations, 1992

United Nations, Department of Humanitarian Affairs. 1992. Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management. (DNA/93/36). United Nations. Geneva.

Session 01 9

Is it a DISASTER?

• House fire in Newark, NJ - the house is destroyed, but there are no injuries.

• Brush fire in Arizona - results in the burning of 100,000 acres of unoccupied land, 5 firefighters need to be admitted to the hospital for various injuries. The fire is finally extinguished by members of more than 10 fire departments.

• The Great Chicago Fire of 1871 - the destruction included 28 miles of roads, 120 miles of sidewalk, 2000 lampposts, 18,000 buildings, totaling over $200 million in property damage (1/3 of the value of all property in the city at the time). 200-300 people died.

Session 01 10

Terms Describing EVENTS

AccidentsIncidents

Disturbances

Emergencies

Crises

Tragedies

Catastrophes

Calamities

Disasters

Session 01 11

Sample Linear Taxonomy of ‘Event’ Terminology

An “Incident” is considered to be minor situation;

An “Emergency” a more serious situation;

A “Disaster” a yet more serious situation; and

A “Catastrophe” the most serious situation of all.

Renee Pearce, L.D. 2000. An Integrated Approach For Community Hazard, Impact, Risk and Vulnerability Analysis: HIRV. Excerpt, Doctoral Dissertation, University of British Columbia.

Session 01 12

VULNERABILITY

“The degree of susceptibility and resilience of the community and environment to hazards.”

- Emergency Management Australia, 2000

Emergency Management Australia. 2000. “Emergency Risk Management”

Session 01 13

What is the difference?

• Preparedness – “Those activities, programs, and systems that exist prior to an emergency that are used to support and enhance response to an emergency or disaster.”

• Mitigation – “Any action taken to eliminate or reduce the long-term risk to human life and property from hazards.”

Preparedness: FEMA. 1992. Federal Response Plan; With Revisions. FEMA.Mitigation: FEMA. 1999. The Professional in Emergency Management (IS-513). Emergency Management Institute. Emmitsburg, MD.

Session 01 14

SAFE

“A risk becomes safe, or acceptable, if it is associated with the best of the available alternatives, not with the best of the alternatives which we would hope to have available.

Do you agree or disagree?

Derby, S. L., and R. L. Keeney. 1981. “Risk Analysis: Understanding ‘How Safe is Safe Enough’”. Risk Analysis. 1:217-224.

Session 01 15

How safe is safe enough?

• Zero risk per person?

• 1 in a million risk per person?

• 1 in 100,000 risk per person?

• 1 in 10,000 risk per person?

IT DEPENDS!

Session 01 16

Some Odds of Death

Hazard Annual Risk Lifetime RiskCar Accident 1/18,752 1/244Accidental Fall 1/20,728 1/270Accidental Poisoning 1/22,388 1/292Murdered With a Gun 1/25,196 1/328Hit by Car While Walking 1/45,117 1/588Drowning (Accidental) 1/77,308 1/1,008Fire/Smoke Inhalation 1/81,487 1/1,062Lightning 1/ 4,262,813 1/55,578

Memmott, Mark. 2002. Fear may be overwhelming, but so are the odds. USA Today. October 18. p.6A

Session 01 17

Probability

Classical: Probability of getting 2 heads in 3 flips of a coin

Subjective: Probability of Puerto Rico becoming a state in the next 20 years

Frequency: Probability of a person getting in a car accident while talking on their cell phone, over a 1-year period

Jardine and Hrudley, 1997. “Mixed Messages in Risk Communication”

Session 01 18

Hazard Risk Management

Establish the Context

Objectives

Stakeholders

Criteria

Define key elements

Identify the Risks

Hazards analysis

Vulnerability analysis

Analyze the Risks

Review controls

Likelihoods

Consequences

Level of risk

Evaluate the Risks

Evaluate risks

Rank Risks

Treat the Risks

Identify options

Select the best responses

Develop risk treatment plan

Implement

Communicate and Consult

Monitor and Review

Emergency Management Australia, 2002. Emergency Risk Management

Session 01 19

Disaster Management Cycle

• Mitigation

• Preparedness

• Response

• Recovery

Session 01 20

Disaster Resistant Communities

• Establish a Community Partnership

• Identify and Assess Community Risks

• Mitigation

• Generate Community Support

Session 01 21

Sustainable Communities

• Disaster Resilience

• Development

Session 01 22

Risk Perception

• Definition

• Perceived Risk

• Personal Experience

Session 01 23

Risk Communication

• Technical Data

• Messages

• Community Partnerships

• Consensus Building