session 2: china’s urbanization in historical and ... ·...

11.S945'Urbanizing'China''

Is#China#an#Outlier?#''

China’s#Urbanization#in#Historical#and#International#Contexts

Liyan Xu, Jinhua Zhao 9/9/2013

1

Facts'of'World'Urbanization

This image is in the public domain.

Urbanization'rate:'percentage'of'population'living'in'urban#areas#(as#defined#by#the#country).'@Source:'hAp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Urbanized_population_2006.png 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Urbanized_population_2006.png

Urbanization'History'by'Countries

Source:'various;'available'upon'request.

UK@

France@

Prussia/Germany@

US@

Russia/USSR@Japan@

S.Korea@

Brazil@

Colombia@

China@

India@

South'Africa@

Kenya@

0@

10@

20@

30@

40@

50@

60@

70@

80@

90@

100@

1800@1810@1820@1830@1840@1850@1860@1870@1880@1890@1900@1910@1920@1930@1940@1950@1960@1970@1980@1990@2000@2010@

Urb

aniz

atio

n*R

ate/

*%

Year

World*Urbanization*by*Countries,*1800;2010

UK@ France@ Germany@ US@ Russia/USSR@ Japan@ S.Korea@

Brazil@ Colombia@ China@ India@ South'Africa@ Kenya@

3

The'Urbanization'Curve

Courtesy of Elsevier, Inc., http://www.sciencedirect.com. Used with permission.

Source:'Mulligan,'G.'F.'(2013).'Revisiting'the'urbanization'curve.'Cities,'32(0),'113–122.'doi:hAp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2013.03.014@ 4

http://www.sciencedirect.com

Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Compendium#of#Statistics#1949F2008,'and'the'UN#World#Population#Perspective#2012.

0@

10@

20@

30@

40@

50@

60@

70@

80@

90@

100@

0@

20000@

40000@

60000@

80000@

100000@

120000@

140000@

160000@

1949

@19

52@

1955

@19

58@

1961

@19

64@

1967

@19

70@

1973

@19

76@

1979

@19

82@

1985

@19

88@

1991

@19

94@

1997

@20

00@

2003

@20

06@

2009

@20

12@

2015

@20

18@

2021

@20

24@

2027

@20

30@

2033

@20

36@

2039

@20

42@

2045

@20

48@

Urb

aniz

atio

n*R

ate/

%

Popu

latio

n/10

*Tho

usan

ds

Year

China’s*Urbanization*1949;2050

Urban'Population@ Rural'Population@ Urbanization'Rate@

First'5cyear'Plan

The'“Great'Leap'Forward”

The'Culture'Revolution

Reform'and'Opencup

China'Entering'WTO

UN'Forecasting

5


Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Compendium#of#Statistics#1949F2008.

0@

1000@

2000@

3000@

4000@

5000@

6000@

7000@

0@

10@

20@

30@

40@

50@

60@

Per*c

apita

*GD

P/20

10*U

SD

Urb

aniz

atio

n*R

ate/

%

Year

China’s*Urbanization*and*Economic*Development*1952;2012

Per'capita'GDP@ Urbanization'Rate@

6


Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Statistics#Yearbook'2012,'2006,'1990.

0.0'@

5.0'@

10.0'@

15.0'@

20.0'@

25.0'@

30.0'@

35.0'@

40.0'@

45.0'@

50.0'@

0@

10@

20@

30@

40@

50@

60@

1952

@

1954

@

1956

@

1958

@

1960

@

1962

@

1964

@

1966

@

1968

@

1970

@

1972

@

1974

@

1976

@

1978

@

1980

@

1982

@

1984

@

1986

@

1988

@

1990

@

1992

@

1994

@

1996

@

1998

@

2000

@

2002

@

2004

@

2006

@

2008

@

2010

@

2012

@

Per*c

apita

*hou

sing

*are

a/m

2

Urb

aniz

atio

n*R

ate

Year

China’s*Urbanization*and*Housing*Improvement,*1952;2012

Urban'per'capita'housing'area@ Rural'per'capita'housing'area@ Urbanization'Rate@

7


Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Statistics#Yearbook'2012,'1996.

0@

0.5@

1@

1.5@

2@

2.5@

3@

0@

10@

20@

30@

40@

50@

60@

1952@1954@1956@1958@1960@1962@1964@1966@1968@1970@1972@1974@1976@1978@1980@1982@1984@1986@1988@1990@1992@1994@1996@1998@2000@2002@2004@2006@2008@2010@2012@

Tota

l*Ene

rgy*

Con

sum

ptio

nto

ns*o

f*Sta

ndar

d*C

oal

Urb

aniz

atio

n*R

ate

%

Year

ChinaPs*Urbanization*and*Per*capita*Energy*Consumption,*1952;2012

Per'capita'Energy'Consumption@ Urbanization'Rate@

8


Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China’s'5th'and'6th'National'Census'data.

0@

10@

20@

30@

40@

50@

60@

70@

80@

90@

100@

0@ 200@ 400@ 600@ 800@ 1000@ 1200@ 1400@ 1600@ 1800@ 2000@

Gro

wth

*Rat

e/%

Rank

Population*Growth*of*Chinese*Cities*of*Different*Sizes,*2000;2010T

Larger'cities'grew'faster

9

China’s'Urbanization:''What’s'So'Special?

  Speed   Economic Outcomes   Resource/Environment Costs

10

Speed'of'Urbanization

  Rapid urbanization: far from “unprecedented” o  Historical counterpart: Lowell, MA o  Contemporary counterpart: Dubai o  Country-level counterparts:

  USSR, Japan, South Korea   Latin America

11

Urbanization'History'by'Countries

Source:'various;'available'upon'request.

UK@

France@

Prussia/Germany@

US@

Russia/USSR@Japan@

S.Korea@

Brazil@

Colombia@

China@

India@

South'Africa@

Kenya@

0@

10@

20@

30@

40@

50@

60@

70@

80@

90@

100@

1800@1810@1820@1830@1840@1850@1860@1870@1880@1890@1900@1910@1920@1930@1940@1950@1960@1970@1980@1990@2000@2010@

Urb

aniz

atio

n*R

ate/

*%

Year

World*Urbanization*by*Countries,*1800;2010

UK@ France@ Germany@ US@ Russia/USSR@ Japan@ S.Korea@

Brazil@ Colombia@ China@ India@ South'Africa@ Kenya@

12

Shanghai@@1990c2010

13© sources unknown. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our CreativeCommons license. For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.

http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/

Lowell,'MA@@1821c1845

These maps are in the public domain.14

Dubai@@c.1990c2010

Top image © source unknown. Bottom image © Hatim Saleh, ChopperShoot.com. All rights reserved. This contentis excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/. 15


Urbanization'and'Economic'Development@

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.

Argentina@

Australia@

Brazil@

China

China,'Taiwan@

Cuba@

Dem.'Peopleks'Republic'of'Korea@

Democratic'Republic'of'the'Congo@

Egypt@

Equatorial'Guinea@ France@

Gabon@

Germany@Greece@

India@

Iran'(Islamic'Republic'of)@

Iraq@

Italy@ Japan@

Jordan@

Kenya@

Libya@Malaysia@

Mongolia@

Ghana@

Philippines@

Qatar@

Republic'of'Korea@

Russian'Federation@

Somalia@

South'Africa@

Sri'Lanka@ Syrian'Arab'Republic@

Thailand@Ukraine@

United'Kingdom@United'States'of'America@

Viet'Nam@

R²'='0.65291@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(P

PP*p

er*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World,*2010T

Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ Annotations@ Linear'Lg'(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@

16

Healthy'Urbanization


Australia@Austria@ Belgium@Canada@

Chile@

Czech'Republic@

Denmark@

Estonia@

Finland@France@Germany@Greece@

Hungary@

Ireland@

Israel@Italy@ Japan@

Mexico@

Netherlands@

New'Zealand@

Norway@

Poland@Portugal@ Republic'of'Korea@

Slovakia@Slovenia@

Spain@Sweden@

Swirerland@

Turkey@


R²'='0.65291@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(P

PP*p

er*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*OECD*Members,*2010T

Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ OECD'Countries@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@

17


Australia@Austria@ Belgium@Canada@

Chile@

Czech'Republic@

Denmark@

Estonia@

Finland@France@Germany@

Greece@

Hungary@

Ireland@

Israel@Italy@

Japan@

Mexico@

Netherlands@New'Zealand@

Norway@

Poland@

Portugal@ Republic'of'Korea@Slovakia@

Slovenia@Spain@

Sweden@Swirerland@

Turkey@


Australia)

Austria)

Belgium)

Canada)

Chile)

Denmark)Finland)

France)

Greece)Ireland)

Israel)

Italy)

Japan)

Mexico)

Netherlands)

New@Zealand)

Norway)

Portugal)

Republic@of@Korea)

Spain)

Sweden)SwiHerland)

Turkey)

United@Kingdom)

United@States@of@America)

R²'='0.66121@2@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(G

DP*

per*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*OECD*Countries,*1960*;*2010T

PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@ OECD'Countries'2010@ OECD'Countries'1960@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012. 18


Photographs of suburb and suburban neighborhoodremoved due to copyright restrictions.

Photograph courtesy of global_jet on Flickr. Under CC-BY.

ManhaAan;'Suburb'(Harry'PoAer’s'aunt’s'house'in'suburban'London) 19

https://www.flickr.com/photos/global-jet/1028077389/

Overcurbanization/Pseudo'Urbanization


Argentina@

Bolivia'(Plurinational'State'of)@

Brazil@

Chile@

Colombia@Costa'Rica@

Ecuador@El'Salvador@

Guatemala@Honduras@

Mexico@

Nicaragua@

Panama@

Paraguay@

Peru@

Uruguay@Venezuela'(Bolivarian'Republic'of)@

R²'='0.65291@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(P

PP*p

er*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*Continental*Latin*America,*2010T

Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ Continental'Latin'America@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@

20

Overcurbanization/Pseudo'Urbanization

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012.

Argentina@

Bolivia'(Plurinational'State'of)@

Brazil@Chile@

Colombia@Costa'Rica@

Ecuador@El'Salvador@

Guatemala@Honduras@

Mexico@

Nicaragua@

Panama@

Paraguay@

Peru@

Uruguay@Venezuela'(Bolivarian'

Republic'of)@

Argentina)

Bolivia@(Plurinational@State@of))

Brazil)

Chile)

Colombia)

Costa@Rica)

Ecuador)El@Salvador)Guatemala)

Honduras)

Mexico)

Nicaragua)

Panama)Peru)

Uruguay)

Venezuela@(Bolivarian@Republic@of))

R²'='0.66121@

2@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(G

DP*

per*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*Continental*Latin*America,*1960*;*2010T

PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@ Continental'Latin'America'2010@

Continental'Latin'America'1960@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@

21

Overcurbanization/Pseudo'urbanization

Photograph courtesy of dany13 on Flickr. Under CC-BY. Photograph courtesy of dany13 on Flickr. Under CC-BY.

Rio:'skyscrapers'and'favelas'(screenshot'from'Fast#and#Furious#5#and'Rio,#the#2011#carton#movie#featuring#two#blue#macaws) 22

https://www.flickr.com/photos/dany13/10422262646/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/groundzero/140526329/

Undercurbanization

Albania@

Armenia@

Azerbaijan@

Belarus@

Bosnia'and'Herzegovina@

Bulgaria@Croatia@

Czech'Republic@Estonia@

Georgia@

Hungary@

Kazakhstan@

Kyrgyzstan@

Latvia@Lithuania@

Mongolia@

Montenegro@

Poland@

Republic'of'Moldova@

Romania@

Russian'Federation@

Serbia@

Slovakia@Slovenia@

Tajikistan@

TFYR'Macedonia@

Turkmenistan@Ukraine@

Uzbekistan@

R²'='0.65291@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(P

PP*p

er*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*Post;Soviet/Socialist*Countries,*2010T

Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ PostcSoviet/Socialist'Countries@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012. 23

Undercurbanization

Photograph of Soviet baku removed due to copyright restrictions.

Soviet'Baku 24

Overcurbanization'and'Economic'Stagnation


Angola@

Benin@

Botswana@

Burkina'Faso@

Burundi@

Cameroon@

Central'African'Republic@

Chad@

Congo@

Côte'dkIvoire@


Equatorial'Guinea@

Ethiopia@

Gabon@

Gambia@Ghana@

Guinea@

Kenya@Lesotho@

Liberia@

Madagascar@Malawi@Mali@

Mauritania@

Mozambique@

Namibia@

Niger@

Nigeria@

Rwanda@

Senegal@

Sierra'Leone@

Somalia@

South'Africa@

Swaziland@

Togo@Uganda@ United'Republic'of'Tanzania@Zambia@

Zimbabwe@ R²'='0.65291@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(P

PP*p

er*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*Sub;Saharan*Africa,*2010T

Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ SubcSaharan'Africa@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@

25

Overcurbanization'and'Economic'Stagnation

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012.

Angola@

Benin@

Botswana@

Burkina'Faso@

Burundi@

Cameroon@

Central'African'Republic@

Chad@

Congo@

Côte'dkIvoire@


Equatorial'Guinea@

Ethiopia@

Gabon@

Gambia@

Ghana@

Guinea@

Kenya@Lesotho@

Liberia@Madagascar@

Malawi@

Mali@

Mauritania@

Mozambique@

Namibia@

Niger@

Nigeria@

Rwanda@

Senegal@

Sierra'Leone@

Somalia@

South'Africa@

Swaziland@

Togo@Uganda@ United'Republic'of'Tanzania@

Zambia@

Zimbabwe@Benin)

Botswana)Burkina@Faso)Burundi)

Cameroon)

Central@African@Republic)

Chad)Congo)

Côte@dSIvoire)Democratic@Republic@of@the@

Congo)Gabon)

Ghana)

Kenya)

Lesotho)

Liberia)Madagascar)

Malawi)

Mauritania)Niger)

Nigeria)

Rwanda)

Senegal)

Somalia)

South@Africa)

Swaziland)Togo)

Uganda)

Zambia)Zimbabwe)

R²'='0.66121@

2@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(G

DP*

per*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*Sub;Saharan*Africa,*1960*;*2010T

PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@ SubcSaharan'Africa'2010@ SubcSaharan'Africa'1960@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@

26

Overcurbanization'at'a'Low'Development'Level

Kibera,'Nairobi‘s'largest'slum

Map data ©2009 Google, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye. All rights reserved. This Photograph courtesy of dany13 on Flickr. Under CC-BY.content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For moreinformation, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.

27


https://www.flickr.com/photos/newbeatphoto/3726803818/

Countries'with'Dutch'Diseases

Algeria@

Angola@Ecuador@

Equatorial'Guinea@

Gabon@Iran'(Islamic'Republic'of)@

Iraq@

Kuwait@

Libya@

Nigeria@

Oman@

Qatar@

Saudi'Arabia@

United'Arab'Emirates@

Venezuela'(Bolivarian'Republic'of)@

R²'='0.65291@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(P

PP*p

er*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*OPEC*and*Other*Major*Oil*Exporters,*2010T

Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ OPEC'and'Other'Major'Oil'Exporters@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@



World map displaying cost of living removed due to copyright restrictions.

Source:'hAp://www.numbeo.com/costcofcliving/@ 29

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/


Article text removed due to copyright restrictions.

Source: Jones, Barbara. "Hamburgers cost £32 and a one-bed flats go for £7,500 amonth... this boy lives in the most expensive city in the world (sadly for him, he's onthe wrong side of the tracks)." DailyMail, Aug. 04, 2012.

Source:'hAp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articlec2183616/LuandacTheccapitalcAngolacexpensiveccitycworld.html@ 30

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articlec2183616/LuandacTheccapitalcAngolacexpensiveccitycworld.html

Country'Trajectories


Argentina

Australia

Brazil

China, Taiwan

Cuba

Dem. People's Republic of Korea

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Egypt

Equatorial Guinea

France

Gabon

Germany

Greece

India

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Iraq

Italy Japan

Jordan

Kenya

Libya

Malaysia

Mongolia

Ghana

Philippines

Qatar

Republic of Korea

Russian Federation

Somalia

South Africa

Sri Lanka Syrian Arab Republic

Thailand

Ukraine

United Kingdom United States of America

Viet Nam 1800@1810@1820@1830@1840@

1850@1860@ 1870@

1880@1890@ 1900@ 1910@ 1920@ 1930@

1940@

1950@1960@

1970@1980@

1990@2000@2010@

R²'='0.66121@

2@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(G

DP*

per*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*World,*2010*with*Urbanization*Trajectories*of*Various*CountriesT

Annotations@ Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)@ UK'1830c2010@ USA'1800c2010@

Japan'1920c2010@ South'Korea'1960c2010@ China,'Taiwan'1952c2012@ Brazil'1960c2010@

India'1950c2010@ Ghana'1960c2010@ Dem.Rep.Congo'1960c2010@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@

31

  Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.

Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina, Chapter 1

Deriving'a'Model…

32

China:'the'Middle'Kingdom


Argentina

Australia

Brazil

China

China, Taiwan

Cuba

Dem. People's Republic of Korea

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Egypt

Equatorial Guinea

France

Gabon

Germany

Greece

India

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Iraq

Italy Japan

Jordan

Kenya

Libya

Malaysia

Mongolia

Ghana

Philippines

Qatar

Republic of Korea

Russian Federation

Somalia

South Africa

Sri Lanka Syrian Arab Republic

Thailand

Ukraine

United Kingdom United States of America

Viet Nam 1800@1810@1820@1830@1840@

1850@1860@ 1870@

1880@1890@ 1900@ 1910@ 1920@ 1930@

1940@

1950@1960@

1970@1980@

1990@2000@2010@

R²'='0.66121@2@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(G

DP*

per*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*World,*2010*with*Urbanization*Trajectories*of*Various*CountriesT

Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)@ Annotations@ USA'1800c2010@ UK'1830c2010@Japan'1920c2010@ India'1950c2010@ Brazil'1960c2010@ South'Korea'1960c2010@China,'Taiwan'1952c2012@ Ghana'1960c2010@ Dem.Rep.Congo'1960c2010@ China'1952c2012@Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@

33

Resource/Environment'Costs?

   

34

Land'Resources'Consumption

0@

100@

200@

300@

400@

500@

600@

700@

800@

900@

1000@

Per*c

apita

*urb

an*la

nd*u

se/m

2Per*capita*urban*land*use*2010T

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'data'from'hAp://www.demographia.com/' 35

http://www.demographia.com/


Australia@

Brazil@

Canada@

China

Danmark@

Egypt@

Frace@

Germany@

India@

Italy@

Japan@

Mexico@

Netherlands@

Philippines@

Poland@ Russia@

S.Korea@

Spain@UK@

US@y'='8.2016x'c'256.29@

R²'='0.28754@

c200@

0@

200@

400@

600@

800@

1000@

30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Per*c

apita

*urb

an*la

nd*u

se/m

2T

Urbanization*Rate/%*

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Per*capita*urban*land*use*2010T

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'data'from'hAp://www.demographia.com/,'and'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012. 36



Australia@

Brazil@

Canada@

China

Danmark@

Egypt@

Frace@

Germany@

India@

Italy@

Japan@

Mexico@

Netherlands@

Philippines@

Poland@Russia@

S.Korea@

Spain@UK@

US@y'='340.47x'c'1106.8@R²'='0.44924@

c200@

0@

200@

400@

600@

800@

1000@

3@ 3.2@ 3.4@ 3.6@ 3.8@ 4@ 4.2@ 4.4@ 4.6@ 4.8@ 5@

Per*c

apita

*urb

an*la

nd*u

se/m

2

Per*capita*GDP/2010*USD

Per*capita*GDP*vs.*Per*capita*urban*land*use*2010T

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'data'from'hAp://www.demographia.com/,'and'the'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012. 37


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Energy Use Per Capita

ui

vale

ntK

g of

Oil

Eq

China

United States

Energy'Consumption

Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for' IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request. 38

Energy*Intensity*;*Total*Primary*Energy*Consumption*per*Dollar*of*GDP*T

(Btu*per*Year*2005*U.S.*Dollars*(Market*Exchange*Rates))T90000@

80000@

ear*2

005*

U.S

.*Dol

lars

T 70000@

60000@

50000@

40000@

BTU

*per

*Y

30000@

20000@

10000@

0@

1980

@19

81@

1982

@19

83@

1984

@19

85@

1986

@19

87@

1988

@19

89@

1990

@19

91@

1992

@19

93@

1994

@19

95@

1996

@19

97@

1998

@19

99@

2000

@20

01@

2002

@20

03@

2004

@20

05@

2006

@20

07@

2008

@20

09@

2010

@20

11@

United'States@

China@

Energy'Consumption


Energy'Consumption

Germany Singapore

India

Japan

Russia

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

R² = 0.1378

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Ene

rgy

Inte

nsity

(kg

oil

equi

vale

nt p

er 1

,000

US

D)

Urbanization Rate (Urban Population / Total Population)

Urbanization Rate and Energy Intensity


Energy'Consumption

Germany

India

Japan

Russia

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

R² = 0.17351

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ene

rgy

Inte

nsity

(kg

oil

equi

vale

nt p

er 1

,000

US

D)

Per Capita GDP (2000 constant USD)

Per Capita GDP and Energy Intensity


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Energy Intensity

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n P

er C

apita

Year

US Energy Intensity vs. Energy Consumption Per Capita

Energy Per Capita Energy Intensity

China,'2011@

China,'2011@

Energy'Consumption


Pollution

Photograph of person surrounded by smog removed due to copyright restrictions.

Beijing,'2013.'Source:' http://gbtimes.com/life/china-gets-tough-air-pollution 43

http://gbtimes.com/life/china-gets-tough-air-pollution

Pollution

Photograph of person surrounded by smog removed due to copyright restrictions.

London,' 952.'Source:'hAp://blog.ifeng.com/article/22421665.html 44

http://blog.ifeng.com/article/22421665.html

China’s'Urbanization:'What’s'So'Special?

  Then, what’s so special about China?

  Is China really an outlier?

45

Concluding'Remarks

  China is unique o  Normative vs. Positive Standards

  Why? o  Scale matters o  Internal complexities are unprecedented

46

Normative'vs.'Positive'Standards

  To be good doesn’t necessarily mean to be normal

o  Despite the “norm” given by the fitting line (in terms of the relationship between urbanization and economic development), most countries have failed to adhere to the norm.

o  China is among the few developing countries economies where urbanization is relatively healthy.

o  Even among these few countries/economies China is probably the one with the worst beginning conditions, which makes China’s achievements even more valuable.

47

Winners

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'on'China#Compendium#of#Statistics#1949F2008,

1952@

1962@ 1972@

1982@

1992@2002@

2012@

1960@1970@

1980@

1990@

2000@

2010@

1952@

1960@1978@

1990@

2000@

2005@

2012@

R²'='0.66121@2@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(G

DP*

per*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*World,*1960*;*2010;*China,*1952;2012T

PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@ Annotations'2010@ World'2010@World'1960@ China'1952c2012@ China,'Taiwan'[email protected]@ China'Annotation@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@

48

Scale'MaAers


Argentina@

Australia@

Brazil@

China

China,'Taiwan@

Cuba@

Dem.'Peopleks'Republic'of'Korea@


Egypt@

Equatorial'Guinea@ France@

Gabon@

Germany@Greece@

India@

Iran'(Islamic'Republic'of)@

Iraq@

Italy@ Japan@

Jordan@

Kenya@

Libya@Malaysia@

Mongolia@

Ghana@

Philippines@

Qatar@

Republic'of'Korea@

Russian'Federation@

Somalia@

South'Africa@

Sri'Lanka@ Syrian'Arab'Republic@

Thailand@Ukraine@


Viet'Nam@

R²'='0.65291@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(P

PP*p

er*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World,*2010T

Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ Annotations@ Linear'Lg'(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@

49

Scale'MaAers


Scale'MaAers

  Fast speed and fair economy outcomes may not be unique, but these achievements become valuable when considering the huge scale of the country.

  Why scale matters? o  Huge scale may change the basic settings of the stage. o  Partial equilibrium -> general equilibrium

o  Absolute amount usually matters when it comes to public goods, or public “bads”, negative externalities such as air pollution or GHG emission

51

Internal'Complexities


Urbanization'Rate'at'the'Province'Level

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China’s'6th'National'Census'data 53

Urbanization'Rate'at'the'Prefecture'Level

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China’s'6th'National'Census'data 54

Argentina)Brazil)

China@

China,@Taiwan)

Dem.@PeopleSs@Republic@of@Korea)

Equatorial@Guinea)Greece)

India)

Japan)

Jordan)

Kenya)

Mongolia)Philippines)

Qatar)

Republic@of@Korea)

Russian@Federation)

Somalia)

Sri@Lanka)

Thailand)

Ukraine)


1952@

1960@1978@

1990@

2000@

2005@

2012@

Beijing@

Tianjin@

Hebei@

Liaoning@

Shanghai@

Jiangsu@Zhejiang@Fujian@Shandong@ Guangdong@Shanxi@

Jilin@

Heilongjiang@

Anhui@

Jiangxi@Henan@Hubei@Hunan@

Inner'Mongolia@

Guangxi@

Chongqing@

Sichuan@Guizhou@Yunnan@

Shaanxi@

Gansu@Qinghai@

Ningxia@

Xingjiang@

''Beijing@

''Fujian@ ''Guangdong@

''Hainan@''Hebei@

''Jiangsu@''Liaoning@''Shandong@

''Shanghai@''Tianjin@''Zhejiang@

''Anhui@''Henan@ ''Heilongjiang@''Hubei@''Hunan@

''Jilin@

''Jiangxi@''Shanxi@

''Gansu@''Guangxi@

''Guizhou@

''Inner'Mongolia@

''Ningxia@''Qinghai@''Shaanxi@''Sichuan@

''Tibet@

''Xinjiang@

''Yunnan@

''Chongqing@

R²'='0.66121@

2@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(G

DP*

per*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*China*Provinces*1952;2012;*Background:*World,*2010T

World'2010@ Annotations@ China'1952c2012@ China'Annotations@China'East'1952@ China'Middle'1952@ China'West'1952@ China'East'2010@China'Middle'2010@ China'West'2010@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@

Unbalanced'Urbanization

Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'China’s'6th'National'Census'data 55


Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'China’s'6th'National'Census'data

Argentina)Brazil)

China@

China,@Taiwan)



India)

Japan)

Jordan)

Kenya)


Qatar)

Republic@of@Korea)

Russian@Federation)

Somalia)

Sri@Lanka)

Thailand)

Ukraine)


1952@

1960@1978@

1990@

2000@

2005@

2012@

R²'='0.66121@

2@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(G

DP*

per*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*China*1952;2012,*with*China*Prefectures*2010;*Background:*World,*2010T

World'2010@ Annotations@ China'1952c2012@ China'Annotations@

China'East'Prefectures'2010@ China'Middle'Prefectures'2010@ China'West'Prefectures'2010@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@

56


Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'China’s'6th'National'Census'data

Argentina)Brazil)

China@

China,@Taiwan)



India)

Japan)

Jordan)

Kenya)


Qatar)

Republic@of@Korea)

Russian@Federation)

Somalia)

Sri@Lanka)

Thailand)

Ukraine)


1952@

1960@1978@

1990@

2000@

2005@

2012@

Guangdong'1952

Guangdong'2012

Guangzhou@

Shaoguan@

Shenzhen@Zhuhai@

Shantou@

Foshan@

Jiangmen@

Zhanjiang@Maoming@Zhaoqing@

Huizhou@

Meizhou@ Shanwei@Heyuan@

Yangjiang@Qingyuan@

Dongguan@Zhongshan@

Chaozhou@Jieyang@Yunfu@

R²'='0.66121@

2@

2.5@

3@

3.5@

4@

4.5@

5@

0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@

Lg(G

DP*

per*C

apita

)20

10*D

olla

rs*($

)

Urbanization*Rate/%

Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*China*Provinces*1952;2012;*with*Guangdong*Prefectures*2010;*Background:*World,*2010T

World'2010@ Annotations@ China'1952c2012@ China'Annotations@Guangdong'1952@ Guangdong'2012@ Guangdong'Prefectures'2010@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@

57

  Despite similar urbanization level, rural Vermont(right) is different from rural Guizhou(left).

  In the developed countries, the countryside and the city imply different styles of life; however in developing countries, they mean different qualities of life.

  The two differ in terms of infrastructure accessibility, consumption level, educational quality, or even life expectancy.


Photograph courtesy of kenner116 and sterlingcollege on Flickr. Under CC-BY.

58

https://www.flickr.com/photos/kenner116/5217517192/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/sterlingcollege/8056852462/

  Therefor, China’s urbanization (and the developing world’s in general) can be viewed as a process of “voting with feet”.

  Putting another way, the developed world is in a state of urban-rural equilibrium, but the developing world isn’t.

  In China, the mobility is further facilitated by characteristics of regional economy (rather than international economy, as seen in the Europe): perfect factor mobility, same currency, etc.

  Challenges: natural tendency toward over-urbanization (Harris and Todaro. 1970)

  Corrective policy tools: Hukou?


59

Thank'you!

60

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11.S945 Urbanizing China: A Reflective DialogueFall 2013

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