session 3 system thinking
DESCRIPTION
This is the lecture slides that I used for System Thinking.TRANSCRIPT
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Webster's definition:
An assemblage of objects united as an organized whole
Our 'system thinking' definition:
Relations among attributes of entities
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Looking up, they are parts of wholes
Looking down, they are wholes with parts
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Cause Map Shows causal relationship among factors that affect the outcome of a system
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Everyday thinking sees linear causal relations.
System thinking looks for circular causal relations.
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Factor 1
Factor 3
Factor 2
Factor 4
Factor 5
Negative feedback
cycle
Positive feedback
cycle
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InflationRate Growth
Rate ofEconomy
MinimumWage
Number ofPeople on
Welfare
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FederalInterest
RateGrowthRate of
Economy
Number ofPeople
UnemployedNumber ofPeople on
Welfare
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FederalInterest
Rate
GrowthRate of
Economy
Number ofPeople
Unemployed
Number ofPeople on
Welfare
InflationRate
MinimumWage
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You are on the Board of Directors of a major automobile manufacturer. The Senior VP of Marketing has just presented a “brilliant” plan to increase sales.
Car rental fleets that currently replace their automobiles every 10 to 12 months will be induced (through appropriate discounts) to speed up their purchases and replace their automobiles every 5 to 6 months.
Everyone thinks this is a wonderful idea, but does it still look good after a cause map analysis?
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Boundary
Relation
Level
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Study of communication and control
"Communication is control in the animal and the machine." (Norbert Wiener 1948)
Cybernetics means 'steersman' and indicates that a system is guided by results
Communication of actual conditions and results of previous actions are fed back into the system to control subsequent actions.
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Always begin by defining the output. Start your analysis by questioning the boundary. Look both ways: up and down. Expect side-‐effects -‐-‐ loops, delays and lagged impacts; look for them, it they are not evident.
Know what kind of complexity (detail or dynamic) you are dealing with
Identify feedback and feed forward controls. How does the system learn?
Worry about using just one view of a system.
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Who is the client? What is the environment? What are the components? Who is the management? What is the measure of performance?
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When you are busy earning money you have no time to spend it
Picking the low-hanging fruit Software is so far behind hardware that
hardware producers push to make ever faster cheaper computers that will make software further behind
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Quick fix rather than long term solution that addresses the key problem Crisis management rather than fundamental
process redesign--people create crises to be heroic
Outsider fixes problem, but insiders become dependent on him/her and never learn to solve problems themselves
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Individuals benefit until everyone loses New highways leading to new traffic jams Every fax is urgent
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Unintended long-term consequences worsen the performance or condition that is fixed in the short term Borrowing money to pay debts Downsizing to improve profits Expediting customer orders
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People who want to work together end up bitterly opposed Producers’ price promotions at odds with
retailers’ stocking strategies GPS with built in traffic information bring
all the drivers in the same area