1. Outlook of the liner traffic at the Northern Baltic Sea in 2020 Results from PENTA projectAnssi LappalainenTransportforum 201310.1.2013 Linkping University of Turku 1 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

2. Agenda Centre for Maritime Studies PENTA project Transport history Drivers of demand in cargo and passenger traffic Future expectations Conclusions and outlook University of Turku 2 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

3. Centre for Maritime Studies Founded in 1980 Special unit of the University of Turku from 1984 Located in four coastal cities in Finland Turku Rauma Pori Kotka Employ about 40 persons University of Turku 3 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

4. PENTA project PENTA project explores the alternatives of how the five Central Baltic ports together can face and better comprehend the challenges of today and in the future. Timetable: 01/2011 08/2013 Funding: Central Baltic INTERREG IV A programme, Ports of Stockholm, Helsinki, Turku and Naantali, and the Government of Estonia. University of Turku 4 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

5. PENTA project WP1 Project coordination WP2 Passenger and cargo flows, and estimations for future WP3 Noise as an environmental challenge WP4 Barriers in safety, security and administrative procedures University of Turku 5 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

6. PENTA ports 2010 2010 1,6 mln tonnes 0,6 mln tonnes 3,2 mln passengers 2,4 mln passengers2010 2,0 mln tonnes 0,17 mln passengers 2010 2,8 mln tonnes 6,9 mln passengers 2010 0,2 mln tonnes 2010 0,015 mln passengers 0,29 mln tonnes 0,9 mln passengers University of Turku6 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

7. Transport history University of Turku7 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

8. Transport history University of Turku8 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

9. Transport history University of Turku9 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

10. Transport history University of Turku10 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

11. Transport history University of Turku11 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

12. Transport history University of Turku12 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

13. Drivers of demand in cargo traffic Gross domestic product Consumer demand Economic structure Logistic system Mode characteristics University of Turku 13 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

14. Drivers of demand in passenger traffic University of Turku 14 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

15. Future expectations Cargo traffic GDP Trade between Russia and Germany Baltic States and Poland Amount of transported units 20-30% growth by 2020 Increases faster than the volume of transported goods The share of fast moving consumer goods increases Transit traffic Decreses in BSR University of Turku 15 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

16. Future expectations Passenger traffic Increases in the long run Interests for entertainment and destination can change The gap between work-related trips and leisure cruises will be more visible Cost structure and the price level in Estonia are key issues Vessel traffic The future vessel size is more dependent on the development of passenger traffic The increasing demand for capacity between PENTA ports will be solved with higher frequency Same departure times of different shipowners are undesirable for cargo traffic University of Turku 16 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

17. Future expectations Sulphur directive The price of marine fuel is estimated to increase by 50-70% The costs of sea transports in BSR are estimated to increase up to 30% Road transportation from Finland to Europe is currently ~20% more expensive compared to sea transportation Russia Russian sea traffic rises from 540 million tonnes in 2011 to 700 million tonnes in 2015 and nearly 900 million tonnes by 2020 (Rosmorport) The capacity of Ust Luga +100% (2011-2015) The capacity of Saint Petersburg +30% (2011-2015) University of Turku 17 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

18. Conclusions and outlook The operational environment in 2020 Moderate economic growth in BSR Bunker costs doubles Sulphur directive takes effect as planned Relative share of road transport in BSR increases more than sea or rail transport Stronger focus on environmental issues with new legislations Significance of Russia increases in trade in BSR Growing Russian economy decreases traffic via PENTA ports Minor decrease in the number of ports in BSR University of Turku 18 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

19. Conclusions and outlook Traffic flows in 2020 STO-TKU Cargo traffic decreases moderately The amount transported units remains unchanged Passenger traffic increases mildly STO-HKI Cargo traffic increases slowly The number of transported units remains at the present level A small decrease in passenger traffic STO-TLL Freight traffic increases for both total volume and units Passenger traffic increases steadily University of Turku 19 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

20. Conclusions and outlook Traffic flows in 2020 KPS-PDS Cargo traffic increases but the relative share of transported units increases faster Passenger traffic remains very modest KPS-NLI Cargo traffic increases but the relative share of transported units increases faster Passenger traffic increases moderately HKI-TLL The strongest increase in cargo traffic among the routes between PENTA ports The increase of transported units is even faster Passenger traffic increases steadily University of Turku 20 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES

21. Thank you for your attention!_____________________________________________Anssi Lappalainen | Project Manager | M.Sc. (Econ.)University of Turku | Centre for Maritime StudiesICT-building | Joukahaisenkatu 3-5 B | FI-20014Tel: +358 2 333 8172 | Mob: +358 40 779 9488anssi.lappalainen@utu.fi | http://mkk.utu.fi University of Turku21 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES