session 42 michael baldauf

World Maritime UniversityDr.-Ing. Michael BaldaufE-Mail: [email protected]

Advanced Maritime Systems for operational risk management

Transportforum 2010Linköping13 - 14 January

Michael Baldauf Jens-Uwe Schröder

(WMU Malmö, Sweden)

Knud Benedict & Matthias Kirchhoff(Wismar University, MSCW)

Advanced Maritime Systems for operational risk management

Transportforum 2010Linköping13 - 14 January

3World Maritime University Malmö

Outline

Introduction The problem Maritime Operational Risks Studies into onboard collision warnings Approach to advanced system of warnings


Introduction

Collision under conditions of good visibility in open sea Source: Investigation Report of BSU


Manage Maritime Operational Risk - Collision Situation Assessment

• Data collection (Observing Sea area, Sensors)

• Construct Traffic image

Decision finding• Analysing Traffic Image:• Analysis of Risk of Collision wrt:• Obligations acc. to COLREGS• Evaluation of alternative actions

Action to avoid a danger of collision• Selection and Initiating of a certain

Measure for Collision Avoidance

Monitoring Action, Measure• Checking Manoeuvre performance and• Effect- and Risk analysis

not acceptable Risk

Correct, Adjust Manoeuvre

Risk acceptable

Return to original course, path


Background

Proliferation of alarm signals on the bridge Revised INS standard [MSC.252(83)] introduces requirements for an alert

management system for navigational alerts Umbrella term alerts comprises 3 categories: alarms, warnings, cautions

Development of IMO Bridge Alert Management standards and e-Navigation initiative of IMO/IALA Framework: revision of IBS standard International Correspondence Group coordinated by Germany, supported by WMU

Field studies on board to support IMO work Framework: project regarding modular concept for ship bridges funded by the

German Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs with support by EU-Project MarNIS

Purpose: analyze the current situation of the management and presentation of all alerts on ships bridges and identify user needs


Definitionse-Navigation (IMO/IALA Definition):Is the harmonised collection, integration, exchange, presentation and analysis of maritime information onboard and ashore, by electronic means to enhance berth to berth navigation and related services for safety and security at sea and protection of the marine environment.

Expected outcome:…Onboard navigation systems will be developed that benefit from integration of own ship sensors, supporting information, a standard user interface and a comprehensive system for managing guard zones and alerts.…


DefinitionsAlertAlerts are announcing abnormal situations and conditions requiring attention. Alerts are divided in three priorities: alarms, warnings and cautions. An alert provides information about a defined state change in connection with information about how to announce this event in a defined way to the system and the operator.

CautionLowest priority of an alert. Awareness of a condition which does not warrant a alarm or warning condition, but still requires attention out of the ordinary consideration of the situation or of given information. WarningCondition requiring no-immediate attention or action by the bridge team. Warnings are presented for precautionary reasons to make the bridge team aware of changed conditions which are not immediately hazardous, but may become so, if no action is taken. AlarmAn alarm is a high priority alert. Condition requiring immediate attention and action by the bridge team, to maintain the safe navigation of the ship.


Methodology

Interviews with mariners Presentation of alerts Handling Related operational problems Centralized alert display

Recording occurrence of alerts on the bridge • Type of alert• Time of occurrence• System / device announcing alert• Presentation (visual / acoustical / both)• Handling of alert • Alarm limits• Sea area (open sea / coastal / confined)


4 Container vessels, 3 Ferries, 1 Cruise vessel Built or reconstructed 2001-2007 Different equipment Medium or high integration level

Average time of observation: 19 hours Min: 11 hours, Max: 27 hours Total: > 120 hours

Interviews with 13 mariners Average age: 36 Average overall experience: 14 years 2 Masters, 11 mates

Empirical Field Studies


On 5 of 6 vessels: CPA limit 0,5 NM (with TCPA 6/ 10/ 12/ 15/ 15 min) one exception (ferry) BCR/BCT mostly same as CPA/TCPA Majority of OOW resp. vessels no specific adjustments of alarm

limits throughout voyageAudible alert announcement• switched off all the time on 2 vessels• off during departure and arrival on 2 other ships

On three ships ECDIS running in Auto-Acknowledge mode throughout the whole voyage

Settings for Collision warnings


4,9

21,4

9,2

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

open sea coastal confined

Navigational situation

Freq

uenc

y of

ala

rms

per h

our

High number of alerts depending on sea area and limits major portion AIS related alerts

Waypoint alarms

8%Off track / Off course

12%

Chart data warning7%

Other23%Collision avoidance

alarms30%

Lost target20%

Results regarding Collision warnings


Results regarding Collision warnings

Other23%

Waypoint alarms9%

Off track / Off course

12%

Lost target20%

Chart data warning

7%

Collision avoidance

alarms31%

AIS 72 % Radar 28 %

AIS 57 % Radar 43 %

Sources of lost target

Sources of CPA/TCPA


Situation dependent Limits - challenges: Determination of type of sea area (Open Sea, Coastal waters with

TSS and VTS monitoring, Confined Waters) Determination of visibility according to COLREGs Determination of type of encounter situation according to COLREGs

Ongoing developments: Available Models from COST 301 (GLANSDORP, FLAMELING et al) Risk model for situation assessment by HILGERT/BALDAUF Comments on COLREGs (as e.g. by COCKCROFT / LAMEIJER) Taking into account further recent publications

Need for situation dependent adaptation of alarm thresholds


Need for situation dependent adaptation of alarm thresholds

Kind of encounter situation

fx(good visibility)

fx(restricted

visibility)

Head-on situation meeting port/port-side 2.5 5

Overtaking 2.5 5

Head-on situation meeting stb/stb-side 5 10

Crossing situation 5 10

Suggestion for recommended situation dependent CPA-thresholds = f (sight, sea area)

Suggestion for minimum TCPA threshold for Collision Alarm (acc. to simulation based scenario studies):

time for 90° course changet90°

16World Maritime University MalmöSteering Parameter

• Rudder angle, • Engine revolution / power• Bow-/Aft-thrusters• …

Status Parameter• max available rudder angle, • Time for rudder command• max engine revolution /

power• Time for reverse engine

manoeuvre• …

Actual moving parameter

• course, speed (x, y) • ROT, heading, draft,• Lateral wind area• …

Actual environmental condition

• Wind (force, direction), • Depth of water• Course of fairway• Aids to Navigation• targets

VDR based manoeuvringData base• Manoeuvring data

depending on• Loading

conditions• Environmental

conditions• Steering and

Control parameters

• Steering and control conditions

• …

Fast-time Simulation

Calculation of:• Response time

according to manoeuvring parameters of the actual conditions

• Safe passing distance according to type of situation and sea area

Application and Display of adapted

CPA-, TCPA-thresholds

for situation-dependent

Collision alertscaution, warning,

alarm

Navigation Displays - for Collision and Grounding Avoidance -

VDR-based Fast-Simulation-Module for Adaptation of alert thresholds


Ship dynamic model and technological setup for simulation The following equation of motion was used as math model for prediction of the ships dynamic:

ruvmxrINrxruvmYrxrvumX

Gz

G

G

2

This equation of motion can be written in the form: ),,()(' tuxftx c

Where: state spaces: ...],,,,,,,,,[ THME nnrvux controls: ...],,,[ __ CmdTHCmdMECmdc nnu

with initial conditions at t=t0: x(t0)=x0; u(t0)=uc0;

...],,,,,,,,,[x 0000000000 THME nnrvu

...],,,[u 0_0_0c0 CmdTHCmdMECmd nn


HMI of Fast-time simulation module

Calculation of situation-dependent TCPA-Limits according to actual ship conditions (speed, loading parameters, rudder constraints) and actual environmental conditions (water depth, wind)


Situation-dependent calculation of TCPA-Limit

90° course change manoeuvre using different rudder angles with/without windballast loaded


Display of situation-dependent action – limits for Collision Avoidance

Suggestion for the integrated display of action limits on the basis of an adapted rule-based risk model and similar to TCAS used in aviation(indication: green – caution; yellow – warning; red – alarm)

Galileo based InformationGalileo based Information


Outlook - Application and test of enhanced warning algorithms

Test setup for new Collision Avoidance Display with enhanced Collision alarms on a Bridge in full mission Shiphandling Simulator


Summary and Conclusions• Fixed limits for collision warnings are sometimes not helpful and lead to superfluous alarming

• New technologies and equipment (VDR, AIS) installed onboard allow for information integration and combination with fast-time simulation techniques

• adaptation of thresholds for collision alarms taking into account the actual ship dynamic behaviour possible

• Reduction of collision alarms by 40% to be expected

• further simulation-based investigations to evaluate suggested limits and


Thank you for your attention!Awaiting your questions!

WORLD MARITIME UNIVERSITY Malmö - Sweden Dr.-Ing. Michael BaldaufAssistant Professor Maritime Safety and Environmental Administration

session 42 michael baldauf

Business