Helena Kyster-Hansen,

Seniorkonsult, transport & utveckling

Tetraplan A/S, Köpenhamn

FP7 Project for DG TREN18 months (Sept. 2008-Feb. 2010)

road raillong-distanceInland navigation

GHG/CO2Fossil Fuel Share

2050FORESIGHT

shaping

sustainabilityCongestion

Accidents

Action planTransport policy

Technology policyDemonstration projects Vision

2020-2035-2050

Targets

Progress

Policy

Measures‘ Assessment & Action Scenario

Vision and Action Plan

Technology Mega Trends

BAU Forecasts & Preliminary Vision

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

1. Forum

2. Forum

3. Forum

4. Forum

Final Conference

Policy , Technology & Mega-Trends

TechnologyPropulsion Systems & Energy

ITS Logistics TechnologiesDemonstration Projects

Policy European PolicyNational Policies

Mega-TrendsFreight Transport Demand

Energy Emissions

Logistics Trends

BAU Forecast

3 Business as usual forecasts:

• A trend forecast consisting of the most likely development

• A low forecast, which combines positive developments that result in easier mitigation (lower limit)

• A high forecast that describes a future, which is more difficult to mitigate than the other two (upper limit)

Preliminary Vision

What progress will be socially and politically expected from long distance freight transport until 2020, 2035 and 2050?

2020 2035 2050

Reduction of GHG emissions -20% -70% -80%

Fossil Fuel Share 80% 60% 40%

Reduction of accidents -40% -65% -80%

Reduction of congestion -17% -33% -50%

BAU Forecast & Preliminary Vision (1)

GHG – emissionsTotal CO2 equivalents (in tonnes) that are caused by LDFT by road, rail and IWW within the EU27 (including upstream).

GHG emissions (Mt CO2 equ)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2020 2035 2050

High Forecast

Trend Forecast

Low Forecast

Preliminary Vision

Input:•Freight transport demand•Modal split•Average load•Bio-fuels•Non-convent. foss. Fuels•Carbon capture and storage•Electricity production

BAU Forecast & Preliminary Vision (2)

Fossil Fuel ShareFossil fuel energy input (primary energy) for LDFT by road, rail and IWW within the EU27 divided by Total energy input (primary energy) for LDFTby road, rail and IWW within the EU27.

Fossil fuel dependency (in %)

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

50,00%

60,00%

70,00%

80,00%

90,00%

100,00%

2005 2020 2035 2050

High Forecast

Trend Forecast

Low Forecast

Preliminary Vision

Input (same as GHG):•Freight transport demand•Modal split•Average load•Biofuels•Non-convent. foss. Fuels•Carbon capture and storage•Electricity production

BAU Forecast & Preliminary Vision (3)

CongestionDelay time measured as the difference between travel time in a loadednetwork and an unloaded network multiplied with the number of trucksaffected for an average day.

Congestion (in mio h)

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

2005 2020 2035 2050

Trend Forecast

Preliminary Vision

Input:•Transport demand•Infrastructure•Total cost/veh.km

BAU Forecast & Preliminary Vision (4)

AccidentsThe number of road fatalities within EU27 attributable to HGV.

Accidents (Number of Fatalities)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005 2020 2035 2050

High Forecast

Trend Forecast

Low Forecast

Preliminary Vision

Input:•Deployment of techn. Develop.•Veh.km

Measures' Assessment (1)

• After the 2nd Forum 35 measures have been identified

• These 35 measures have been evaluated (desk research) by the project partners

Measures' Assessment (2)

Road transport related measures:• Investment in ITS• Investment in TEN-road• Internalisation of external costs• HGV weights and dimensions• Liberalisation of cabotage• Progressive distance pricing• Different pricing type of freight• Harmonised speed limits• Congestion charge• Enforcement of regulations

Rail transport related measures• Investment in new railway lines• Freight prioritisation• Funding for ERTMS/ETCS• Electrification of rail corridors• Longer trains• Heavier trains

IWW & maritime transport related measures• Investment in IWT infrastructure• Develop new technologies in IWW• Investment in maritime port infrastructure.

Supply chain related measures• Training for eco-driving• Automated platooning• Standardized Loading Units• E-freight• Network optimisation – cargo owner• Network optimisation –

logistics service provider• CO2 labels• Intermodal transport• Transport consolidation & cooperation• Transport route planning & control

Energy suppliers related measures• Taxation of fossil fuels• Hydrogen Infrastructure• Improved Batteries (energy storage)• Vehicle Supplier related measures• Including CO2 standards into HGV

regulation• Best available technology – BAT

vehicle certification for HGVs• Clean vehicle technologies

Aerodynamics – Alt. engines/fuels

Measures' Assessment(3) - Methodology

•

Measures Assessment(4) – ABC Analysis

GHG 'A's: Internalisation of external costs, Network optimisation logistics service providers, CO2 labels, Intermodal transport, Taxation of fossil fuels, Improved batteries, BAT certification for HGV, Clean vehicle technologies

• GHG 'B's: Liberalisation of cabotage, congestion charge, ....

• GHG 'C's ...

•

Scenario (1)

Goal: One realistic scenario where the preliminary vision is reached

• It is impossible to estimate the impact of a certain measure.

• What development of the models' input parameters is necessary and possible?

• Assumptions for transport demand are unchanged)

•

Scenario (2)

GHG & Fossil Fuel – Model Input parameters

• Engine efficiency (42% → 60%)

• Vehicle energy demand (-50%)• Low carbon electricity (-88%)• Bio-fuels (2% → 33%, emissions -93%)

• Efficient usage of vehicle (-45%)• Electric engines in road transport (25%)• Modal shift (road 75% → 65%, rail 19% →

25%, IWW 6% → 10%)

• Vehicle split/Larger Trucks (10%)• Electrification of rail (63% → 80%)

Scenario (3)

Scenario (4)

Ceteris Paribus Analysis

•Impact if one parameter fails (and all other reach their goal)

•

Scenario (5)

Congestion – Model Input Parameters • transport costs (toll costs pass. veh. 15 ct,

30 ct HGV)• logistics efficiency (+20%)• infrastructure availability (20%)

Scenario (6)

•Until 2035•Truck vehicle km TRANSTOOLS based•Ratio of Fatality per vehicle km to 1/3

•

Scenario (7)

These input parameters have been discussed.

• The conclusion of the discussion was

• That some assumptions seem to be very optimistic and have to be looked in detail, but in general

• the preliminary vision seems to be possible to achieve

Final Step

• Elaborate for each measure• Market perspective• Demand for RTD actions (demonstration

projects, Basic & Applied Research)• Demand for Transport Policy actions• Demand for actions in Related policy areas• Milestones

Vision• What progress should be achieved by 2020,

2035 and 2050?

Final Conference: 24th Feb. 2010, Brussels

Thanks for your attention!

www.freightvision.eu

Helena Kyster-Hansenhkh@tetraplan.dk