Session 5: Applications Studies

UK activities

Julia Slingo

UK-India Collaboration

• DEFRA Phase I UK-India Programme on Impacts of Climate Change in India completed in 2005: Report available from http://www.defra.gov.uk/ENVIRONMENT/climatechange/internat/devcountry/india2.htm

• DEFRA Phase 2 Programme will commence in 2007 focusing on: Water resources

Agriculture

Forestry

Human health

• UK India Education and Research Initiative (UKIERI) Major Project on Science of Regional Climate Change, Variability and Impacts. 4-year programme of PhD Studentships, Visits and Workshops addressing:• Improving our understanding of monsoon processes, variability and change;

• developing a world class monsoon simulation in the UK’s climate model, HadGEM;

• sharing operational monthly and seasonal predictions for India and assessing their skill;

• developing downscaling methodologies for all time-scales to produce tailored products for applications and impact assessments in India.

DEFRA Phase I: Mean Annual Cycles of All-India Rainfall and Temperature for end of 21st century

A2: High Emissions

B2: Low Emissions

DEFRA Phase 1: Impacts on Water Resources

Hydrological cycle is projected to be more intense, with increase in extremes and daily intensities.

Change in no. of rainy daysChange in rainfall over

major catchments

Hadley Centre PRECIS Regional Model

Current: 1961-1990 Future: 2071-2100

The impact of water and temperature stress at anthesis on groundnut yields: A2 (high emission) scenario

• Current risk is dominated by water stress • Future climate is dominated by temperature stress in the north.

DEFRA Phase 1: Impacts on Agriculture