Session 5.1 Adaptation for extreme eventsTerry Cannon

Hazardous places are livelihood places

• People often trade the risks of a place and a hazard for the livelihood benefits of that location– Volcanic soils– Floods and soil fertility and fish – Coasts for fishing– Water supplies and fault zones– Florida, California, Netherlands…

Disaster

Death

Injury

Illness

Hunger/ Dehydration

Loss of Assets

Livelihood loss or disruption

Life support loss or disruption

Hazard

Flood

Cyclone

Earthquake

Tsunami

Volcanic eruption

Drought

Landslide

Biological

Vulnerability component

Livelihood & its resilience

Base-line statusWell-being

Self-protection

Social Protection

Governance

EXPOSURE

“Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model

Disaster

Death

Injury

Illness

Hunger/ Dehydration

Loss of Assets

Livelihood loss or disruption

Life support loss or disruption

SocialStructures & Power Systems

Class

Gender

Ethnicity

Caste

Other power relationships

Hazard

Flood

Cyclone

Earthquake

Tsunami

Volcanic eruption

Drought

Landslide

Biological

Vulnerability component

Livelihood & its resilience

Base-line status

Well-being

Self-protection

Social Protection

Governance

EXPOSURE

SOCIAL

FRAME

“Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model

ROOT

CAUSES

National & International

Political Economy

Power relations

Demographics

Conflicts & War

Environmental Trends

Debt Crises

Etc

SocialStructures & Power Systems

Class

Gender

Ethnicity

Caste

Other power relationships

Hazard

Flood

Cyclone

Earthquake

Tsunami

Volcanic eruption

Drought

Landslide

Biological

DISASTER

Vulnerability component

Livelihood & its resilience

Base-line status

Well-being

Self-protection

Social Protection

Governance

SOCIAL

FRAME

“Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model

ROOT

CAUSES

Components of Vulnerability• Livelihood & its resilience

– Assets and income earning activities

• Base-line status - well-being– Health (physical & mental), nutrition,

• Self-protection– Quality of house construction & location

• Social Protection– Adequacy of building controls; large-scale measures

• Governance– Power system, rights, status of civil society

Household & livelihood

Baseline status

Household & livelihood

Baseline status

Other households

Livelihood

Baseline status

Other households

Governance (power)

People & risk priorities

• Natural hazards may not be at the top of people’s priorities

• Daily life – the pursuit of livelihoods – takes precedence above all

• Changing people’s perception of risk and their behaviour is crucial but difficult!

• Reducing disaster vulnerability requires FIRST strengthening livelihoods

Photo: La Paz, Bolivia

Fabien Nathan

Risk hierarchyExtreme but infrequent“Little we can do about them..”

Damaging & within memory

Common & coped with

EQ

Landslide

Flood

DroughtFire

Tropical

cyclones

Severeflood

Everyday life: poverty, illness,hunger, water, traffic accidents Priorities !

Vulnerability reduction = Development?

• Protect and strengthen livelihoods of the vulnerable

• Improve people’s base-line conditions• Improve quantity and quality of assets available

for income-generating activities• Preserve natural sources of protection – e.g.

mangroves, forests• Make assets hazard-proof• Reduce risk of disruption of employment

activities by hazards

Main CC impact themes

• Climate Hazards (shocks): – requires vulnerability analysis and livelihood

protection to prevent disasters.– Is it same as Disaster Risk Reduction?

• Climate Trends (changes in expected conditions):– requires assessment of livelihood impacts –

primary and secondary. – Potentially worse than disasters?

• Combinations of shocks & changes to norm– Surprises, variability, intensities, what is normal

for some is a shock for others

Adaptation gap issues

• “Adaptation is the form that development must take in response to climate change”

• What has prevented or constrained development so far? Will those factors go away simply because of CC?

• We should explore in what ways CBA can provide the evidence required to ‘cost’ or fill these different adaptation gaps

• The gaps defined by the people may be different from that defined by outsiders (who have a different set of priorities)