setting the context. introduction welcome & acknowledgement background workshops action plan...
TRANSCRIPT
Setting the context
Introduction
Welcome & Acknowledgement
Background
• Workshops action plan
• General Manager’s support
Housekeeping
• Facilities, OH&S, Turn off mobiles
[Insert Council logo]
Purpose• Developing a Climate Change Action Plan
Program• Keeping to time • Respectful discussion• Climate change deniers?
IntroductionsEvaluation forms
Introduction
Progress
Gain internal support
Gain internal support
Steering Committee Meeting 1-Develop a planning program
Steering Committee Meeting 1-Develop a planning program
Workshop 1-Introduction Workshop 1
-Introduction
Steering Committee Meeting 2-Research adaptation options
Steering Committee Meeting 2-Research adaptation options
Steering CommitteeMeeting 4 -Action plan
Steering CommitteeMeeting 4 -Action plan
Steering CommitteeMeeting 5 -Review
Steering CommitteeMeeting 5 -Review
Steering Committee Meeting 3 -MitigationSteering Committee
Meeting 3 -MitigationWorkshop 4
-Mitigation actions
Workshop 4-Mitigation actions
Identify Planning Team
Identify Planning Team
Workshop 2-Risk assessment
Workshop 2-Risk assessment
Workshop 3-Adaptation
actions
Workshop 3-Adaptation
actions
Expected outcomes
Participants will :• Understand sources of uncertainty for projections • Appreciate projected impacts for the region• Describe potential impacts for the LGA and council • Record likely impacts, assumptions and decisions
Projections
Projections based on modelling by the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• IPCC assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information
• 2,500 scientific expert reviewers for Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
Rajendra Pachauri, Then Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2009. Photo by the UN.
Uncertainty of projections
Climate change projections are not certain.
Projections are uncertain because:• Future emissions are unknown• The relationship between the level of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere & global warming is uncertain
• The link between global warming & localised climate change is uncertain
Uncertainty should not stop action
Councils should apply the precautionary principle and not use lack of certainty as an excuse to delay action planning:
Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation. Principle 15 of the ‘Rio Declaration on Environment and Development’ United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Rio, 1992.
Source: Environmental Defenders Office http://www.edo.org.au/edosa/publications/newsletter/edo%20newsletter%20october%202005.htm
Managing uncertainty
• Uncertainty can be managed by regularly updating climate change action plans
(i.e. adaptive management)• Risk assessment and adaptation planning should
be completed based on projected trends and revisited rather than setting permanent values
Projections could be conservative
• Actual emissions are at the upper end of all projections
Steffen, W. 2009
Temperature projections
Likely impact - NSW Source
Temperature Year: Projection:
Likely impact – This Region Source
Temperature Year: Projection:
www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
Rainfall projections
Likely impact - NSW Source
Summer Rainfall
Year: Projection:
Winter Rainfall
Year: Projection:
Likely impact – This Region Source
Summer Rainfall
Year: Projection:
Winter Rainfall
Year: Projection:
www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
Projected extreme events
Likely impact - NSW Source
Extreme Rainfall
Year: Projection:
Storm surge Year: Projection:
Days over 35°C
Year: Projection:
Cyclones Year: Projection:
Fire days Year: Projection:
www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
Projected sea level rise
Likely impact - NSW Source
Sea level rise
2030: +17cm CSIRO 2006
Sea level rise
2050: +40cm2100: +90cm
DECCW 2009
Damage to beach access, Wooli, May 2009 (Photo by Scott Lenton)
Current and Projected Climate Change in the Catchment Area – Temperature (CSIRO, 2007)
1990 2030 2070
Average (deg C)
No. days below
0 deg C
No. days above 35 deg C
No. days above 40 deg C
Current and Projected Climate Change in the Catchment Area – Rainfall (CSIRO, 2007)
1990 2030 2070
Annual average (mm)
Extreme rainfall
Evaporation
No. droughts per decade
Local example
Social information
Stakeholders
• Consulting:
• Informing:
• Any questions?
Exercise
How climate change may impact on CouncilSpecifically, impacts on:• Service delivery• Related services and service providers • Personnel• General public• Systems and equipment• Administration and support
Exercise – ‘Drawing out the Impacts’
• Consider a specific point in the future (e.g. 2030, 2050, 2070)• Think laterally• On the maps, draw how projected
climate changes may impact the LGA• Record your assumptions and
decisions in the template• Present your map • Develop a list of agreed impacts
Agreed impacts
Achievements from the workshop
During the workshop we have:• Described how climate change will impact the
LGA and council• Recorded our assumptions and decisions• Developed a list of agreed impacts as a group
that can be used in the risk assessment workshop
Conclusion
• Thank you
• Evaluation forms
References
• IPCC, 2000, Special Report: Emissions Scenarios: Summary for Policymakers http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf
(visited December, 2009)• IPCC, 2009, http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm
(visited December, 2009)• Rio Declaration on Environment and Development 1992
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=78&ArticleID=1163 (visited December, 2009)
• Steffen, W., 2009 Climate Change 2009: Faster Change & More Serious Risks.
http://www.anu.edu.au/climatechange/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/climate-change-faster-change-and-more-serious-risks-final.pdf (visited December, 2009)