setting the scene an overview of state of air transport ... · world air transport in 2013 11 3.1...
TRANSCRIPT
Boubacar Djibo
Director of the Air Transport Bureau
ICAO/CAAC Symposium on Low Cost Carriers Kunming, China, 23-24 October 2014
SETTING THE SCENE
An Overview of State of Air Transport
and Regulatory Developments
1
2
The air transport industry
The air transport industry is not only
• a vital engine of global socio-economic growth
• but is also of vital importance as a catalyst for
economic development,
– creating direct and indirect employment,
– supporting tourism and local businesses, and
– stimulating foreign investment and international trade.
Economic benefits of aviation
58.1million
Jobs supported by
aviation worldwide
Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014
$2.4 trillion
Global economic
impact*
*including direct, indirect, induced and tourism catalytic
3
World international cargo shipment
Volume of world international
cargo shipment
Value of world international
cargo shipment
Aviation
Aviation
Surface modes
Surface modes
4Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
1.9%
2.4%2.7%
3.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Economic development in 2013
Real GDP Quarter-on-Quarter growth
(2013 vs. 2012)
GD
P g
row
th r
ate +2.5% = 2013 vs. 2012
Real GDP annual growth
Economic growth recorded
an increasing trend over
the successive quarterly
growth rates of 2013
5Source: IHS Global Insight
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Turboprop Turbojet
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Turboprop Turbojet
85%88%
Nu
mb
er
of
air
cra
ft*
*Active and parked aircraft are included; aircraft having a maximum take-off mass of less than 9 000 kg (20 000 lbs) are not included
Commercial air transport fleet in 2013
Turbojets:- 88% of world fleet in 2013
- this share increased every year since
2004
2013: - 1 500 aircraft deliveries
- More than 3000 aircraft net ordersfor the world’s major aircraft manufacturer
6Source: Reed Business Information (RBI), aircraft manufacturer websites
706 717 687 692
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2012 2013
Operating Revenues
Operating Expenses
Operating result
US
do
lla
rs(b
illi
on
)
706 717 687 692
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2012 2013
Operating Revenues
Operating Expenses
Operating result
US
do
lla
rs(b
illi
on
)
706 717 687 692
2.6%
3.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2012 2013
Operating Revenues
Operating Expenses
Operating result
Op
era
ting
resu
lts (% o
f Re
ven
ue
s)
US
do
lla
rs(b
illi
on
)
Airline operating revenues in 2013:
717 billion USD
+1.7% vs. 2012
Airline operating results in 2013:
3.5% of operating revenues
+0.9 p.p.* vs. 2012
*percentage points
Air carrier financial results in 2013
7Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
World Tourism in 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1,087million
International tourist arrivals
+52 million Vs. 2012
Inte
rna
tio
na
l To
uri
st A
rriv
als
(mil
lio
n)
8Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Distribution of International
Tourist Arrivals in 2013
Europe
52%
Asia / Pacific
23%
Americas
15%
Africa
5%
Middle-East
5%
World Inbound Tourism:
International Tourist Arrivals, 2013
Europe represents
the largest share of
international tourists
arrivals with one half
of the World total
9Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
19
45
19
47
19
49
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Re
ve
nu
e P
ass
en
ge
r-K
ilo
me
tre
s(b
illi
on
)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
19
45
19
47
19
49
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Re
ve
nu
e P
ass
en
ge
r-K
ilo
me
tre
s(b
illi
on
)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
19
45
19
47
19
49
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Re
ve
nu
e P
ass
en
ge
r-K
ilo
me
tre
s(b
illi
on
)
Fre
igh
tT
on
ne
-Kilo
me
tres
(billio
n)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
19
45
19
47
19
49
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Re
ve
nu
e P
ass
en
ge
r-K
ilo
me
tre
s(b
illi
on
)
Oil
cri
sis
Gu
lf c
risis
Asia
n c
risis
Iran
-Ira
q
war
SA
RS
9/1
1 t
err
ori
st
att
ack
Wo
rld
re
cessio
n
Fre
igh
tT
on
ne
-Kilo
me
tres
(billio
n)
Air Transport Development
5.8 trillion RPK
+5.5%growth rate vs. 2012
Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services
10Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
World Air Transport in 2013
11
3.1billionPassengers carried
32 million
Commercial flights performed
5.8trillion
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres
186billion
Freight Tonne-Kilometres
+4.5%vs. 2012
+1.2%vs. 2012
+0.4%vs. 2012
+5.5%vs. 2012
Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services
11Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013
World Air Transport in 2013
by Region
12
3.1billionPassengers carried
32 million
Commercial flights performed
5.8trillion
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres
186billion
Freight Tonne-Kilometres
+4.5%vs. 2012
+1.2%vs. 2012
+0.4%vs. 2012
+5.5%vs. 2012
41.5
3.1
22.6
74.0
39.1
5.3
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia and Pacific
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
7.9
0.9
1.1
8.6
11.0
2.6
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia and Pacific
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
817
73
161
1,008
815
230
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia and Pacific
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
1,556
134
500
1,785
1,505
303
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia and Pacific
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
Passengers carried (million)Aircraft departures (million)
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) Freight Tonne-Kilometres (billion)
-0.4%
-0.4%
+4.9%
+6.3%
-1.3%
+0.4%
+3.1%
+3.5%
+7.8%
+8.0%
+0.9%
+5.7%
+4.6%
+4.4%
+11.2%
+7.7%
+2.0%
+6.7%
-0.1%
+4.0%
+12.0%
+0.2%
-4.9%
+2.7%
Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services
12Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f R
PK
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f R
PK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Middle East
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f R
PK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Europe
Middle East
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f R
PK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Asia/ Pacific
Europe
Middle East
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f R
PK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Asia/ Pacific
North
America
Europe
Middle East
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f R
PK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa
Since 2010:
Asia/Pacific ranks 1st
Analysis
Since 2012:
Europe ranks 2nd
Middle East has
gained market share
every year
Passenger traffic:
Worldwide distribution (1/2)
Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services
13Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
Passenger traffic:
Worldwide distribution (2/2)
2007
Distribution in Revenue Passenger-Kilometres
North America
32%
Asia/ Pacific
29%
Europe
27%
Middle East
6%
Latin America/
Caribbean
4%
Africa
2%
Asia/ Pacific
31%
Europe
27%
North America
26%
Middle East
9%
Latin America/
Caribbean
5%
Africa
2%
20131st: North America
2nd: Asia/Pacific
3rd: Europe
1st: Asia/Pacific
2nd: Europe
3rd: North America
Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services
14Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f F
TK
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f F
TK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Middle East
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f F
TK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Europe
Middle East
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f F
TK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
North
America
Europe
Middle East
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f F
TK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Asia/ Pacific
North
America
Europe
Middle East
tra
ffic
sha
re i
n t
erm
s o
f F
TK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa
Asia/Pacific’s FTK
share is 40%
Analysis
Europe ranks clearly 2nd
Asia/Pacific declined in
2011 and 2012
in 2013:
Middle East has gained
market share every year
North America declined
Freight traffic:
Worldwide distribution (1/2)
Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services
15Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
Asia/ Pacific
42%
North America
25%
Europe
23%
Middle East
6%
Latin America/
Caribbean
3%Africa
1%
2007
Distribution in Freight Tonne-Kilometres
1st: Asia/Pacific
2nd: North America
3rd: Europe
1st: Asia/Pacific
2nd: Europe
3rd: North America
2013
Asia/ Pacific
40%
Europe
22%
North America
21%
Middle East
12%
Latin America/
Caribbean
3%
Africa
2%
Freight traffic:
Worldwide distribution (2/2)
Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services
16Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
Global traffic flows
Major markets 2012
Source: based on OAG 17
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2013
Inter-region capacity offered
from Asia/Pacific to the World
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013 39%
34%
24%
3%
0%
26%
38%
33%
2%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013 39%
34%
24%
3%
0%
26%
38%
33%
2%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
+13 pts
-3.8 pts
-9.6 pts
+0.4 pts
-0.1 pts
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
FROM ASIA/PACIFIC:- 1st destination in 2013 : to Middle East (+13 pts) � to Middle East was 3rd in 2004
- Fastest growth destination: to Middle East and to Africa � few seats to Africa
- Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalancedScheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) servicesNote: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 18
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/ Caribbean
sea
ts o
ffe
red
(in
de
x 1
00
in
20
04
)
- Top 3 airlines: Only Chinese carriers
- Each airport of the Top 5 recorded an increase
- Beijing (PEK) � Largest airport in Asia/Pacific : 40% more departures than the 2nd
���� 2nd largest airport in the world
- Asia/Pacific : +7.7% RPK growth in 2013
Asia/Pacific
Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports
Note: scheduled services
Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates
- 25 50 75 100 125 150
China Southern
Air China
China Eastern
Singapore Airlines
Cathay Pacific
RPK (billion)
+ 8.6%*
+ 8.6%
+ 11.3%
+ 2.6%
- 0.5%
- 50 100 150 200 250 300
Beijing (PEK)
Tokyo (HND)
Jakarta (CGK)
Guangzhou (CAN)
Hong Kong (HKG)
Departures (thousand)
Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services
Source: ACI
- 50 100 150 200 250 300
Beijing (PEK)
Tokyo (HND)
Jakarta (CGK)
Guangzhou (CAN)
Hong Kong (HKG)
Departures (thousand)
+ 1.9%
+ 3.1%
+ 4.7%
+ 5.7%
+ 5.7%
*2013 vs. 2012
Total (international and domestic) services19
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Tra
ffic
Sh
are
by
nu
mb
er
of
Se
ats
Asia/ Pacific
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Tra
ffic
Sh
are
by
nu
mb
er
of
Se
ats
Middle East
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Tra
ffic
Sh
are
by
nu
mb
er
of
Se
ats
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Tra
ffic
Sh
are
by
nu
mb
er
of
Se
ats Europe
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Tra
ffic
Sh
are
by
nu
mb
er
of
Se
ats
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Tra
ffic
Sh
are
by
nu
mb
er
of
Se
ats
North America
Low Cost Carriers in 2013
20
Scheduled commercial traffic
Percentage of States served by LCC - 2004 vs 2013LCC Traffic Share by Region (intra-regional traffic)
22%
47%
79%
69%62%
100%
37%
84%
94%
78%
100% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America/
Caribbean
Middle
East
North
America
2004 2013
Latin America/
Caribbean
+16
States
+7
States
Total (international and domestic) services
+3
States
+5
States
+8
States
- Largest LCC presence: Europe (37%) and Latin America/Caribbean (31%)
- Strongest growth: Asia/Pacific and Middle East (+17 pts in 10 years)
- Smallest LCC presence: Africa
- All States in Middle East have LCC presence in 2013
- 94% of States have LCC traffic in Europe in 2013
- Asia/Pacific : +16 new States served by LCCs
Source: ICAO, OAG 20
2013
Note: distribution in terms of number of seats intra-region
Low Cost Carriers in 2013
LCCs
7%
Legacy
carriers
93%
LCCs in
2004
3%
LCCs
21%
Legacy
carriers
79%
LCCs in
2004
4%
LCCs
40%
Legacy
carriers
60%
LCCs in
2004
20%
LCCs
37%Legacy
carriers
63%
LCCs in
2004
26%
LCCs
18%
Legacy
carriers
82%
LCCs in
2004
1%LCCs
31%Legacy
carriers
69%
LCCs in
2004
24%
Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services
Source: ICAO, OAG 21
Focus on LCC in Asia-Pacific
4%6%
8%10%
12%14%
16%
18%19% 21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pe
rcen
tag
e o
f Av
aila
ble
Se
ats
Offe
red
by
LCC
s
Nu
mb
er
of
Av
ail
ab
le S
ea
ts
(mil
lio
n)
Available Seats Offered by LCCs Percentage in the Region
• In 2013, 21% of the
available seats within the
region were offered by
LCCs
• The number of seats
offered by LCCs has
increased from 2004 to
2013
• Percentage of seat
offered by LCCs: 4% to
21% in 10 years
Evolution of seat offered by LCC
Source: ICAO, OAG 22
47%
58%65%
70%74% 74% 77% 79% 79%
84%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pe
rcen
tag
e o
f Nu
me
r of S
tate
s
Nu
mb
er
of
Sta
tes
States with LCCs Traffic Percentage in the Region
Focus on LCC in Asia-Pacific
• In 2013, 84% of States
have LCC traffic in Asia
Pacific
• In 10 years, the number
of States with LCC traffic
has grown from 20 to 36
• The growth of LCC
penetration in Asia-Pacific
is higher than the world
average
Evolution of the number of States with LCC traffic
Source: ICAO, OAG 23
Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO”
Scheduled passenger traffic
24Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO
Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO”
Scheduled freight traffic
25Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO
�Air traffic will continue to grow(at 4.6% annual average growth rate to 2030)
� International share bigger than domestic
(64% of total traffic in 2030)
�Asia/Pacific traffic grow at higher rate (at 6.2% to 2030 against world average 4.6%)
� China =>Major market, huge potentials
Future trends - Summary
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Regulatory changes:
� Regulatory regimes become more open and liberalized
� Liberalization progress uneven
� Regulatory/liberalization approaches varied[national, bilateral, regional, multilateral; heavy, light, off-handed]
ICAO to facilitate and assist (forum, policies and guidance, multilateral agreements…)
Regulatory developments
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States which signed open skies agreements with both the US and third countries
States which signed open skies agreements with the US only
States which signed open skies agreements with the third countries only
Bilateral Open Skies (by March 2013)
400+ OSA involving 145 States
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Full liberalization arrangements (ASEAN, CARICOM, EU, LACAC. Trans-Tasman cooperation)
Gradual liberalization arrangements (AFCAC, Damascus Agreement signatory states, South Pacific Islands)
Regional Liberalization
Most world regions
have liberalization
programs
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Leadership role in:
� Developing policy guidance (e.g. long term vision for liberalization, core principles for consumer protection)
� Modernizing regulatory framework (developing international agreements for liberalizing market access, air carrier ownership and control, air cargo services)
� Facilitating liberalization (e.g. enhanced ICAN facility, global & regional forums to address topical issues)
� Fostering regulatory harmonization and compatibility (updating ICAO policy guidance, compendium on competition policies & rules, exchange forum for dialogue/cooperation between air transport & competition authorities)
� Supporting aviation system bloc upgrades (ASBUs), and infrastructure development and regulatory oversight (exploring new funding/financing mechanisms)
ICAO’s current work in economic
regulation
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• Liberalization-widespread and will continue
• Industry undergoing transformation
• Marketplace dynamic, competition intensified
• Traffic will continue to grow, but vulnerable to impacts
• Growth needs policy support, favourable environment
• Policy makers/regulators, Industry facing many challenges & opportunities
• Need to cooperate and work as a community
ICAO’s role: Uniting Aviation to create a better environment for sustainable development of air transport
Conclusions
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More information available at:
www.icao.int
THANK YOU, 谢谢！
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