severe space weather
TRANSCRIPT
Resilience and Emergencies Division
Severe Space Weather H56 and marmite. Hollywood or Business Continuity for Dummies. Science versus the facts.
Robert ThirdResilience Team - North
September 2014
• Introduction
– Conflicting scientific evidence/facts
• Space weather
– the sun and its magnetic activity
• Severe space weather risk
– H56 reasonable worst case scenario
– Impacts and/or common consequences
• Next steps
– International collaboration – advance space science, forecasting, alerting and measures quantifying severity
– Government work programme - High Impacts Hazards Team
– Local Resilience Forums’ considerations and preparedness
Conclusion
– Myths and hype
The Sneeze
With a large sneeze there are three things that spring to mind that can be likened, sort of, to space weather events: - explosive eruption/gust/wind, like solar storms/solar flares/CMEs - unseen germs like solar energetic particles causing radiation- sound and noise ‘atchoo’ like x-rays and solar radio noise [sic]
Space weather Space weather events are changes in space of: plasma, radiation and magnetic fields, driven by the energy from the sun and carried by the solar wind.
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections released; causing disturbances in magnetic field and geomagnetic storms
Solar energetic particle emissions increase radiation levels, causing radiation storms
X-ray emissions (and solar radio noise) cause radio disturbances/blackouts
Space weather summary table Space weather/solar storm event
Occurrence Consequence Impacts Timings
Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections(‘gusts’ in solar wind)
Disturbance of the earth’s magnetic field
Geomagnetic stormsGenerate induced currents
Risk to power networks 17 hours to 4 daysDamage to satellite
electronics
Degradation of radio communications
Solar energetic particles
Large numbers of energetic particles emitted from the sun
Radiation stormsIncreased radiation levels
Radiation dosage 30 minutes to 20 hours
Damage to satellite electronics
Degradation of radio communications
X-rays and solar radio noise
Disturbances of the ionosphere
Radio blackouts Loss of radio (HF) communications
8 minutes
Degradation of navigation systems
H56 reasonable worst case scenario
•Recent solar storm events have had less severe impacts and appear relatively benign:
1921 – Geomagnetic storm
1958 – USA radio blackout
1989 – Hydro-Quebec blackout
2003 – ‘The Halloween event’
Carrington Event 1859; the largest space weather event recorded
– Solar activity of significant magnitude and overlap/synchrony– Duration 1-2 weeks (storm lasting for approx 3 days – some
effects felt for weeks or months - build up, slow down) – Probability 1% per annum during solar maximum– Impacts were globally felt but the severity and scale varied
with location [and academic report/scientific interpretation]
2013 National Risk RegisterNational risk rating: high (requires and national and local response)
National likelihood assessment: medium – high
National impact assessment: moderate
Potential disruptive impacts to numerous technologies and infrastructure:
– power networks– aviation sector– satellite services– communications systems– GPS
H56 impacts & consequences: Power
Official sensitive 8
• Factors of local vulnerability:• Local geology – granite (Aberdeen)• Length and resistance of power lines -
urban vs rural/popn./conurbation size• Proximity to the coast – end of line
(Kings Lynn)• Types of transformers – new or old
• In UK, 13 super grid transformers possibly damaged or taken out of service; two English coastal substations affected with outages lasting a few hours - localised blackouts - medium term 1 month
UK electricity network is more resilient than those in other countries (USA)
• Smaller generators could be affected but National Grid would manage this in their operating reserve – minimal impact on end user.
National Grid - planning for power outages
• Planning for over 20 years:
H56 Impacts and consequences: Communications
UK mobile/cellular network is more robust than the USA and much of Europe
• Concerns over future standards (near miss 4G network)
But relies on power supplies
• Airwave not significantly affected – mitigation measures; engineered out the issues
H56 impacts & consequences: Satellites
An estimated 10% of the satellite fleet will be inoperative or lost for a few days
Most will be recovered, all will be aged
Satellite navigation and accurate timing losses (GPS) 1 – 3 days
• Satellite disruptions: interruptions & degradations lasting several days
• Temporary short-term (1hour) nationwide losses of wireless systems including: mobile phones, internet and other related services.
H56 Impact and consequences: Aviation
Increased pilot and ATC workload
Aircrew and passengers subject to 20mSv of radiation
Disturbances to Satcom and HF communications affecting ships & aircraft
• Work to understand the nature of the risk for the UK since first appeared in National Risk Assessment in 2011.
• Met Office ‘own’ space weather risk - developing 24/7 forecasting capability.
• Co-ordination provided by CCS in Cabinet Office. Severe Space Weather and Effusive Volcanoes Projects set up in April 2013.
• Accountable to High Impact Hazards Programme Board.
• Expert Advisory Groups ensure work of the projects informed by evidence.
• Continue international collaboration (US, EU, NATO)
• Main outputs: enhanced capabilities to be reflected in preparedness strategy for responding to a severe space weather incident.
Next steps: UK Government's approach
• There remain significant uncertainties. Science still evolving and hard to evaluate interdependencies between impacts.
• Impacts likely to be felt internationally. How closely aligned do international responses need to be?
• Affected organisations might have global reach. How should Governments work with them?
• Can capability required be built by individual organisations or does it need intervention at national or international level?
• Time from notification of an event to impacts being experienced is short.
• How best should local responders plan for these types of events?
Policy implications
Conclusion•Known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns…•H56 Severe space weather risk is based upon our best current understanding of a complex risk but• It involves a high degree of interdependency and interconnectivity between
vulnerable technologies
• It has theoretical impacts which are not necessarily proven or tested or fully understood
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