Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration project for southern African countries

Portfolio committee, 21 August 2007

Application of weather forecast information

The application of weather forecast information to the benefit of society and economy at large is quite diverse and complicated in the case of Southern Africa,

for example, due to its mixture of mostly developing and few developed areas.

The significant impact that tropical cyclone Eline and FAVIO had on the rural communities in Mozambique is a telling example.

South Africa held emergency meeting three days before tropical cyclone FAVIO land in Mozambique, this was the first successful planing meeting before the occurrence of weather disaster. Weather forecast once more made it possible to plan accordingly to assist the neighbouring country.

Weather forecast challenges in the region

In some well developed regions industries and communities benefit significantly through the use of weather forecast products.

Important in this context is also the fact that the technical capabilities of weather services in the region (14 countries in the region) are quite diverse.

South Africa is fortunate enough to have a small but technically well developed weather service,

however, the majority of the other weather services lack financial resources to establish sophisticated systems like weather radars, numerical models, or even proper data communication links in a few cases.

Weather warnings

Warnings are helpful if they are received, interpreted appropriately and acted upon.

Dissemination of warnings to remote areas for safety of life and property.

Understanding of historic exposure to weather hazards. Striving to bring media closer ensuring emphasis on disseminating

forecast other than impact after the event. Meteorological centres need to ensure single authoritative source

of the warnings in their countries. Timely dissemination of the warning (arrives timely to some users

but late or never to some due to poor integration or links). Need for integration of warnings to broader socio-economic system

that takes into account diversity (cultural, isolation,political)

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project-> for SADC countries

In line with the country’s international obligations under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Convention, South Africa has been engaged in a number of regional cooperation projects which include: •meteorological training of weather service personnel from SADC countries, •enhancement of regional data communications, guidance and support of the WMO’s Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project for the region.• The project is operated from South Africa in fulfilling roles of Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (officially known as RSMC, Pretoria) for southern Africa.

Severe Weather Project->objectives

Project objective as developed by Commission for Basic Systems (CBS-XIII (2005) ):

• To improve the ability of National Meteorological Centres (NMCs) to forecast severe weather events;• To improve the lead time of alerting these events;• To improve interaction of NMCs with the Disaster Management Civil Protection Authorities (DMCPA) before and during Severe Weather events;• To identify gaps and areas for improvements; and• To improve the skill of products from global centres through feedback from NMCs.

Project achievements for SADC countries

• The project Management Team met in Maputo from 27 February 2007 to 02nd March 2007.

• The project progress was evaluated and the team was satisfied that it is a success, hence a recommendation that the project should become operational and be extended to all SADC countries.

• Forecast of Tropical Cyclone FAVIO being the most successful high impact weather forecast->5 days lead time by South African Weather Service, impressive achievement.

• The feedback from Civil Protection Authorities of various participating countries (Botswana, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Madagascar) expressed usefulness of the Severe Weather guidance forecast.

• This activity will be official and be part of SADC structure after November 2007

Severe weather guidance forecast for SADC.

Tropical Cyclone “FAVIO”

END!

Thank you…