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Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project Regional Subprojects for the Bay of Bengal and for Southeast Asia Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Maldives Meteorological Service Macau China 8 19 April 2013 Slide 2 The MALDIVES 19 Atolls Slide 3 1200 Islands Slide 4 Severe Weather types FLASH FLOOD 2012 STRONG WINDS Frequent THUNDERSTORM Frequent TIDAL OR SWELL WAVES . 1987, 2007 STORM 1991 DROUGHT Slide 5 Low pressure systems/ depressions and cyclonic activity Murjan (18 to 21 Oct 2012) and Nilam (21 to 31 Oct 2012) resulted severe weather phenomenon in Maldives and caused damages at many islands. 21 October to 06 November 2012 Slide 6 Weather Drivers Features DriverNormal18 th to 24 th October 201225 th to 31 st Oct 2012 ITCZLocation around 5.0N Located around 10.0N because of amplified trough in the equatorial easterly wave moved westwards over Indian region, which also resulted in formation of Cyclonic storm MURJAN over Arabian Sea STWJsCore wind speed at 200hpa is normally above 60 knots Core oscillated between 22.0N and 30.0N with the wind speed between 84-104 knots at or near 200hpa. STWJ exhibited a dual core, one at Lat 22.oN and other at 30.0N on 21 st October 2012. 85-100knots is observed during the 25 to 28 October 2012. Also it got shifted southwards 23.0N during first week and 29.0N during second week because of Anticyclone shifts Sub Tropical Ridge significant high pressure belt situated around latitudes of 30.0N and 30.0S Located over Indian region between latitude 12N and 15N at 200 hpa. During the 25 Oct 2012, it was located around 15N and during 26 th & 28 th, it was located between Lat 5-6N. It again shifted northwards and located between Lat 12- 17N at 200hpa. This wide variation observed was also in tune with the northward shift in the ITCZ associated with active cyclogenesis during the period. Source: Indian Meteorological Department Slide 7 Impact of weather drivers on synoptic features Under the influence of weather drivers described above, two lows were seen 20 October 2012 18 UTC and 27 October 2012 18 UTC which caused the heavy rainfall episodes during 21 to 31 October 2012. Low seen on 20 October 2012 18 UTC near southern Maldives caused heavy rainfall during 22 October 2012 in southern and central part of Maldives. This low intensified and moved west of Maldives and manifested as cyclone MURJAN made a land fall at Somalia Coast on 25 October. Further, another Low developed near northern Maldives during 27 October 2012 18 UTC brought heavy rainfall episodes in Northern part of Maldives. Slide 8 Slide 9 Source: Thai Meteorological Department. Figure 1: TMD Weather Chart on a) Top panel - 20 October 2012 18 UTC b) Bottom panel 27 October 2012 18 UTC Slide 10 IMD Reports. Depression formed over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal at 06:00 UTC of 28 October 2012 near latitude 9.5N and longitude 86.0E moved westwards and intensified into a deep depression in the morning of 29th October over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.0N and longitude 83.0E, and continued to move westwards and intensified into a Cyclonic Storm, NILAM in the morning of 30th October over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast. The Cyclonic Storm, NILAM then moved northwestwards, crossed north Tamilnadu coast near Mahabalipuram, south of Chennai between 1600 and 1700 hrs IST of 31st October 2012. After the landfall the cyclonic storm, NILAM moved west-northwestwards and weakened gradually into a deep depression and then into a depression over south Interior Karnataka in the morning of 01st November 2012 Slide 11 Manifestation of Weather features on Maldives Slide 12 Under the influence of synoptic scale weather systems described above the Maldives experienced 82 mm of rain to GAN - ADDU CITY on 22nd October and since then the severe weather system remained active over the country. It became more enhanced on 24th October by causing heavy rain over southern and central atolls. KADHDHOO LAAMU ATOLL received 119 mm of rain on that day. The trough further oscillated south to central to north and rain showers were distributed through many atolls during next few days. Slide 13 Rainfall at KADHDHOO LAAMU ATOLL and HANIMAADHOO HAADHAALU were 62 65 mm on 27 th followed by 115 and 145 mm recorded at HANIMAADHOO on 29 October and 30 October, respectively. The October monthly mean rainfall at Hanimaadhoo is 199 mm. Even a much higher intensity/ amount of rainfall is expected in its neighbourhood. HOARAFUSHI and NOLHIVARANFARU reported most destruction due to floods on the same day. Considering the impact level and recorded rainfall nearby (Hanimaadhoo & Kelaa 128mm), Maldives Meteorological Service estimate 200mm of rainfall for Hoarafushis flooding. In the south, KAADEHDHOO HUVADHU ATOLL recorded 120 mm on 31 October 2012. The October monthly mean rainfall at Kaadehdhoo is 253 mm. Slide 14 Slide 15 As the trough gets intensified the low level winds begin to pick-up from 28 th October onwards. Strong winds were prevalent to central atolls and approximately 7 hours of steady 20knot wind were reported at the National Meteorological Centre for 28 th October. Slide 16 The first tornado hit HULHUMEEDHOO ADDU CITY on the afternoon hours of 29 th October and the second one around 6 pm in FEYDHOO ADDU CITY. Both funnel clouds brought successive damages and huge losses. Slide 17 The strong winds duration was prolonged further until end of October and part of southern atolls also reported strong wind on 31 st October. Slide 18 Products of various numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and dynamical-statistical models received through internet Forecasting at MMS Slide 19 Slide 20 Coordination with RIMES RIMES shared its experimental forecast on 29 th October 2012 for NILAM Cyclone about the characteristics of the cyclone, The landfall of Cyclone NILAM on 31 October 2012 was well predicted by RIMES WRF experimental forecast. The six hourly forecast simulations for wind speed and rainfall parameters were shared to MMS. Slide 21 Slide 22 Slide 23 Damages The observed impacts during the period reported by Atoll/ Island Councils, National Defense Force (MNDF), Police, NDMC and media were huge and fairly widespread. The cost of the damage caused by flooding and tornado are expected to rise to millions. Slide 24 Some of the observed impacts Slide 25 Devastating Flood Fuvahmulah 6 November 2012 The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifted southwards close to equator on 5th November and very intense convective clouds formed over southern Maldives. Slide 26 Slide 27 Devastating Flood Slide 28 Torrential rain measured 132 mm in SIX hours caused severe flood in Fuvahmulah - 6 November 2012. Slide 29 Devastating Flood Creatures from the Sea Slide 30 Devastating Flood Additional Drainages Slide 31 The impact of this flooding was widespread! Affecting many households, crops and water sewerage systems Slide 32 PREPAREDNESS and WARNING Maldives Meteorological Service is mandated for issuing advisories and warnings related to meteorological, hydrological, tectonic and oceanographic disasters. MMS formulated a Project to be complete in 3 phases in establishing a full fledge Early Warning System. Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Upgrading of GTS, -Installation of Doppler Weather Radar, Satellite Receiving System. -Two Automatic Weather Stations install at Daravandoo and Nilandoo. One short-period seismo- meter installed in Gan - Addu Atoll. 2 Broadband Seismometers install in Hanimaadhoo & Kaadehdhoo. -Internet service 5mbps to 10mbps and a redundant VSAT internet service is in place. -10 Automatic Weather Stations to be installed. Doppler Weather Radar in Gan - Addu Atoll 11 Automatic Weather Stations in atolls. - Agro & Marine AWS -Lightning Detection -System. Slide 33 To act upon any likely event of meteorological, hydrological, tectonic and oceanographic disasters, National Early Warning Centre prepared the Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) PREPAREDNESS and WARNING . Slide 34 Alert Levels Alert Level 1 WHITE Alert Level 3 RED Alert Level 2 YELLOW Alert GREEN for Cancellation Slide 35 PREPAREDNESS and WARNING . Alert Level DescriptionAction 1 WHITE - Mean wind speed is expected or prevailed between 23 30 mph. - Rainfall of more than 50 mm is expected to occur within 24 hours. - High tidal waves are expected. Significant weather changes expected or occurred. Look-out for update information. 2 YELLOW - Mean wind speed is expected or prevailed between 30 40 mph. - Torrential rain is expected and or heavy rain occurred for more than 2 hours. - A severe thunderstorm is occurring or expected. - Tropical Cyclone is formed or passing through effective area of Maldives. - Significant tidal or swell waves occurring or approaching. Concerned authorities and people are advised to be on watch or alert. Be ready to take preventive measures. 3 RED Flash flood expected. Tropical Cyclone tracked towards or to cross Maldives. Destructive tidal, swell waves or storm surge expected. People at risk to be evacuated from danger zones. 4 GREEN Condition improved (Cancelation Message) Cancel Watch or Warning. Slide 36 PREPAREDNESS and WARNING . MMS issued 42 WHITE Alerts, 7 YELLOW Alerts and 1 RED Alert during 2012 Monsoon Season. Briefing to sea travelers, fisherman, National Defense, Police, NDMC and interviews to various media were conducted. Warnings were additionally dispatched through cooperate SMS and Hotlines to designated authorities as per SOP. Slide 37 CHALLENGES and CONCERNS Delivery of Advisories and Warnings to end users. Varying international media reports. Lack of trained personnel in MMS and stakeholder agencies. No safe shelters. Slide 38 THANK YOU