severe weather forecasting demonstration project (swfdp)

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Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Peter Chen Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department WWRP 4th Joint Science Committee Geneva 21 February 2011

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Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP). Peter Chen Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department WWRP 4th Joint Science Committee Geneva 21 February 2011. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

Peter ChenChief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division

Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department

WWRP 4th Joint Science CommitteeGeneva

21 February 2011

Page 2: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)WMO

Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries (Cg-XV, 2007)

“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”

WMO Strategic ThrustsImproved Service Quality and Service Delivery

Improved delivery and access to high quality weather, water, related environmental predictions, information, and services

Reduced risks and potential impacts of hazardsStrengthening Capacity Building

Page 3: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)WMO

SWFDP Main GoalsImprove Severe Weather ForecastingImprove lead-time of warningsImprove interaction of NMHSs with users, including media, disaster

management and civil protection authorities, and user communities in the various socio-economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, etc.)

SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial platform forpreparation and dissemination of multi-hazard, early warnings

SWFDP Regional Subprojects

Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria) South Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington) Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries; possible start-up 2011) Eastern Africa (in development, 6 countries; possible start-up 2011)

Page 4: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

– Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;

– Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;

– NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with Disaster Management, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;

– NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.

4

Global Centers Disaster Management

Centres

NMCsRSMC Pretoria

Page 5: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

5

Page 6: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa (status/progress)WMO

Project develop in progress Focus on:

Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)

Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains: (TBC)

5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria)

Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Possible start-up 2011

Page 7: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

Proposed SWFDP – Southeast AsiaWMO

SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progressProject develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/documents/Report_SWFDP-SeA_IP_Sep2010.pdf)

Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell)

Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E and 140°E Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA (NWP guidance material)Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi (TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support)National Met. Centres: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet NamPossible start-up 2011

Page 8: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

Proposed SWFDP – Southeast Asia

Satellite Imagery and Tools

WM

O S

P

PWS (+ TCP +HWR + MMO)

General Public, Media and Disaster

Management

MH-EWS

Dissemination of Weather Information

Reg

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al C

entr

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(CM

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Global NWP/EPS

TC

GuidanceProducts

GDPFSP

WS

Flash Flood Guidance

HW

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Landfall Typhoon Forecast Demonstration Project

WW

RP

+ T

CP

Page 9: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings

• Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time)

• Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS), • High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage,

near-shore damaging waves) • Forecast Verification• Phase in other developments

• Technological gaps: – Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events – Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) – Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations

Page 10: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

SWFDP – Cooperating with Research … incorporating promising research outputs into real-time

SWFDP demonstrations …

WWRP

• Global Interactive Forecasting System (TIGGE) - Tropical Cyclone forecasting

• JWG on Forecast Verification Research

• WG Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h)

• SERA – Service Delivery

Page 11: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting

and warning services

Thank you!

Peter Chen [email protected] Soares [email protected]