Severe Weather Forecasting Tools in the Ninjo Workstation

Paul Joe1, Hans-Joachim Koppert2, Dirk Heizenreder2 Bernd Erbshaeusser2, Wolfgang. Raatz2, Bernhard Reichert2 and Michael Rohn2

1Meteorological Service of Canada2Deutscher Wetterdienst

Outline Brief NinJo overview Various Tools Specfic to Weather Warnings

Radar – Doppler, 3D Algorithms (Konrad, CARDS) Storm Classification Identification and Tracking Interactive Cross-sections Interactive Cell Views Automon EPM – Editing, Production, Monitoring of Warnings OOG – Objectively Optimized Guidance MMO – Modified Model Output

Current status

What is NinJo?

Consortium of five partners•Data Visualization Workstation•1.0 release date 27.03.2005•1.0 deployed by DWD, DMI, MCH, BGS•MSC responsible for radar, lightning•DWD responsible for SCIT

NinJo Layers = Client Interface to Server Applications

Severe Weather Warnings for DWD

DWD announced that it will to take the responsibility to provide a severe thunderstorm/tornado warning service!

Radar in NinJoInitially based on the Canadian radar system in Canada due to requirements for severe weather.

Integrates data/products DWD legacy systems [KONRAD Hohenpeissenberg / RDT Offenbach AP2003 group], from MCH (TRT)

Some Philosophy Assume expert severe wx user Must maintain situational awareness

Work from composite and drill down to details

Support Analysis/Mental ModelsDetail view match “text book” material

Create Leverage Points/not answersUse algorithms as guidance and not to

promote dumbnessDo not rely on algorithms, use them wisely

Implementation – SCIT and Cells

Composite radar;

Imagery hidden

Cell detections shown

Storm ClassificationIdentification and Tracking- “ranked storms”

Cell View

Radar Data/Products and NinJo Can manipulate, view, interact with radar in

the same way as any other data – separation by usage rather than by sensor

Radar/data functionality separated VAD = aerological data Cell Objects = point data Radar Fields = 2D or 3D data Cross-section capability = path layer

NinJo and Radar

Composites on the fly or pre-computed, Data viewer

A NinJo View:

Transparent radar and satellite overaid

on surface data

Interactive “Cell” Views(first prototype step)

• User sets the area for viewing.

• Not necessarily based on algorithm detection of thunderstorms (and their problems)!

• Any data type can be included in the cell view window.

• eg boundary identification, fog monitoring

Assessing Models with Data

Watch / Assessment Phase of the Severe weather forecast process

Cross-sections

MxRadar XSection

AutoMon (Automatic Monitoring)(i) point threshold for alerting, (ii) model vs data, (iii) forecast vs data

Objects: Will handle objects generated by lightning cluster algorithms, satellite, manually using the same

Assessing ModelsWatch Phase

Real vs Synthetic (NWP)

Assessing Models by Comparing with Data

Editting, Production and Monitoring(Warning Layer)

Objectively Optimized Guidance(Blending)

Summary

Very brief description of the NinJo and the Severe Weather package

Several tools to support the forecaster to make better decisions Radar, algorithms, ranking, cell views, cross-sections,

Automon, MMO (EPM (warning production), lightning, swath products

System in development, v1 released, v1.2 March 2006

Need to spend time on training to develop expertise Science, technology, usage Practice/Simulation needed to optimize use

Lightning / Lightning Cluster Analysis

Modified Model Output(Point and Area editting)