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Sevilla 2007

UKCIP presentation

22 March 2007

DON’T FORGET TO USE TAHOMA FONT

Liz Greenhalgh

UKCIP

B9 – How can cities prepare: adaptation and local decision-making

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The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)“helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by

climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts”.

• set up by UK Government in 1997

• funded by Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)

• based at University of Oxford

works through:

• stakeholder-led research

• partnerships

• programmes, and

• capacity building

provides common tools and datasets.

all resources are freely available on request, or over the internet

www.ukcip.org.uk

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UKCIP goal and aims

Goal:

Aims:

“UK successfully adapting to unavoidable climate change” (Defra Strategic outcome)

To improve knowledge and understanding of the impacts of climate change among stakeholders;

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UKCIP as a ‘boundary organisation’

Facilitates relationships between three groups of key actors

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UKCIP methods and principles

• helps build adaptive capacity in stakeholder organisations

• uses a two-way process of knowledge transfer with stakeholders

• uses a common set of tools

• provides intelligent access to datasets e.g. climate scenarios

• does not undertake research but sits on steering groups

• gives guidance and support for partnerships and studies

• assists dissemination of research and project outcomes

• develops and refines new tools with stakeholders

all services are provided free of charge to users

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Global temperature (1960 - 2100)

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Unavoidable temperature rise

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Still some choice now

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The type of 2003 summer could be normal by 2040s and cool by 2080s

observationsMedium-High emissions (modelled)European

summer temperatures

Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre

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Mitigation and adaptation

• Mitigation of climate change

slow down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas

emissions

• Adaptation to climate change

respond to the predicted impacts of climate change

Responding to ‘weather related risks’ and ‘climate risks’

may be more useful language to consider impacts and

adaptation

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Climate change responses

Not alternatives!

Response:

Mitigation Adaptation

Concept: Easy Hard

Practice: Hard Easy

Benefit: Global, deferred Local, immediate

Addresses:

Causes Symptoms

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Vulnerability

Coping range

Climate sensitivity, vulnerability & adaptation

Time

Cli

mat

e v

aria

ble

PresentPast

Critical threshold

Planning time horizon

Future

Decisionto adapt

Implementationof adaptation

Lag

Ne

w c

op

ing

ra

ng

e

New critical threshold

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Changes in annual average temperature in UK

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Climate change scenarios: UKCIP02eg changes in seasonal average precipitation in UK

Winter

Summer

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Temperature: Human Systems

• Fewer winter deaths, lower heating bills

• Comfort in buildings, vehicles, and outside (Urban heat island effect: ~+2 °C)

(London Underground deviation: +2.7° to +5.0°C)

• Heat effects on elderly, vulnerable

• Disease vectors and food poisoning

• Mediterranean work patterns?

• Outdoor culture?

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Temperature: Infrastructure

• Tarmac (roads, runways) soften

• Expansion allowances exceeded:• rails buckle

• wires sag

• Electrical equipment fails

• Cooling systems overload

• Cement sets too fast

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• River flooding

• Storm drains backing up

• Soil water-logging

• Damage to property from driving rain

• Soil loss (water erosion)

• Fungal growth/disease

Wetter Winters

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• Irrigation water shortages

• Conflicts over water use

• Not enough water to dilute pollution

• Contraction of clay and peat soils

• Soil won’t absorb rainfall

• Soil erosion by wind

• Wild fires

Drier Summers

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Sea level rise

• Global sea level rise from expansion and glacier melt

• Continues after global temperature rise stops

• 19-79 cm this century in UK

• River flow, high tide and storm-surge combine

• Thames Estuary 2100 plans

• Non-floating ice in world has 80M potential sea level rise

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Health Impacts in UK

• Cold-related deaths down

• Heat-related deaths up

• Food poisoning up

• Vector & water-borne diseases may increase

• Malaria could re-establish

• Air pollution down, but summer ozone?

• Buildings, Staff, Equipment. Drug storage, Patients?

• Treasury plans to spend £4B+ on capital projects this year

Human health Health Delivery System

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Mainstreaming adaptation: nationally UK

• Climate Change Bill

o Assessment of risk of climate change to the UK (impacts and vulnerabilities)

• Stern report for the Treasury

o Costs of inaction outweigh costs of action

• Adaptation Policy Framework

o Cross government framework, priority areas for action

o Protecting major infrastructure

o Ensuring sustainable communities

o Assigning roles and responsibilities

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Public assets

• UK Public valued at £800 Billion

• If lifetime = 100 years, spend £8 Billion/year to replace

• Lifetime of new assets will see significant climate change

• Will they be fit for purpose throughout their lifetime?

• Who ensures they are built to be so?

• Who bears the risk that they may not be?

(Hospitals, Schools, Offices, Land, Bridges, Roads, Railways, etc.)

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Mainstreaming adaptation: locally UK

• Impacts of climate change will be felt in different ways in different places

• Difficult decisions mean citizens must be involved

• Challenge for the process of local government

• Local Authorities will play a critical role as deliverers of adaptation with a direct democratic engagement with citizens

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Scotland

East Midlands

Eastern Region

South West England

North East England

London

South East England

Wales

West Midlands

North West England

Northern Ireland

Regional partnerships

Yorkshire and Humberside

Scoping Studies and Summary Reports have now been completed for all of the UK regions.

These studies identified regional climate impacts and recommended strategic actions.

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Three facets to Local Authorities• Corporate Role

o Commission, own & manage assets

o Employ many people

o Have pension fund investments

• Service Provider

o Planning

o Environment

o Waste collection and disposal

• Community Leader

o ‘Shaper of place’

o Duty of care

o Welfare of community

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UKCIP tools and resources

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UKCIP: Tools and Resources

Regional partnershipsSectoral partnerships

1. Climate change scenarios

2. Socio-economic Scenarios

3. Adaptation Wizard 4. Risk Management Tool5. Costing Tool6. Adaptation Case

Studies7. BACLIAT8. LCLIP9. NDAP

All free on the website

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Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change

• The Nottingham Declaration is a voluntary pledge to address the issues of climate change. It represents a high-level, broad statement of commitment that any council can make to its own community.

• 100 councils signed the First Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change launched in 2000

• Second National Councils’ Conference on Climate Change was held December 2005 to launch new version of the Nottingham Declaration

• More than 200 councils have signed to date

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Nottingham Declaration Action Pack

• The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack was released July 2006

• The purpose of the Pack is to provide online guidance for the production of LA (or LSP) climate change action plans

• Ambition to become the standard resource for guiding local authority responses to climate change

• Provides a project management framework with clear milestones

• Offers the potential for auditing progress

• Flexible and adaptable allowing both comprehensive, authority-wide approaches, or focus on specific service areas or corporate functions

• Provides links to other useful resources

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The action pack considers both mitigation and adaptation

NDAP (Nottingham Declaration Action Pack)

ImplementationPrepare an Action Plan

Develop Strategic Approach

Assess Current and Likely Future

Situation

Getting

Started

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation

Corporaterole

Communityleader

Service provider

Mitigation and adaptation

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Getting started common elements to all threads

•Obtain Senior Management and Political Support•Appoint climate adaptation lead•Appoint team and agree approach•Allocate Resources•Undertake initial training

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Getting started

Obtain Senior Management and Political Support

Experience demonstrates that the support of Elected Members, senior managers and key staff is vital to the success of local authority work on climate change

There are many possible routes:

•Support from the Finance Director has proved to be key to many successes

•Coventry CC got climate change on the agenda via their Risk Management Committee

•Cardiff CC have embarked on a wide-ranging plan with high level political support

•Devon CC appointed a high-level Climate Change Officer

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Getting started

• Appoint climate adaptation lead

o Ensure that climate change is part of someone’s job description – it is difficult to attain success unless climate change is part of someone’s ‘day job’

• Appoint team and agree approach

o Ensure that all members of the team have time available to participate in the project

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Current vulnerability to weather events Oxford Eastern By-Pass: October 11th 2006

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A Local Climate Impact Profile (LCLIP)

An LCLIP will help a Local Authority to understand better:

• the impacts and consequences of current extreme weather events

• council’s and others responses to such events

• the information that will be needed to prepare for future climate

Offers a simple entry point to what can seem complex data:

• based on explicitly local impacts

• relates real consequences to real weather events

• based on popular media reports, not challenging science

Provides evidence:

• to approach senior management

• to determine thresholds

• to drive prioritisation and preparedness in the organisation

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Oxfordshire County Council impacts database – a summary

The findings from incidents between 1996 and 2006

Variable Example(s) Result

Number of Different Types of Impact Storm damage, subsidence… 32

Number of Major Weather Events Easter 1998 Floods… 36

Total Number of Recorded Incidents Damage to council property… 263

Aggregate Cost of Incidents Repairs, third party claims… £16,413,000

Aggregate Staff Cost of Incidents Fire & rescue staff hours… 19,870

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2006 Headline messages - Road Damage

Responses

• Extensive diversions in place.

• Gritters sent out to treat damaged roads.

• ‘Slippery road’ signs erected until surface texture can be restored.

• Heat damage initial estimates £3.6m, and expected to rise when full costs calculated.

High temperatures 34.8oC on 19th July create ‘sticky’ conditions on more than 37 roads over two day period. Consequences: • Some roads permanently damaged by heat

• Some roads impassable so road closures across county

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2006 Headline messages – School Closures

Consequences

• Temperature in some classrooms exceed 36°C

Responses

• 6 schools closed for either an afternoon, one or two days.

• Head teachers decided that pupils should be sent home.

• Over 970 students affected.

• "Overiding responsibility is to make sure pupils are safe…If such a decision is made, parents will be told at the first opportunity and reminded to listen to notices via local radio stations." J.M. Director Children, Young People and Families.

Heat-wave – July 06.

Some schools recorded temperatures of more than 36°C (97°F) in classrooms.

Peers Technology College

Clanfield Primary

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Share headline messages with senior officers

Senior officers:

• often do not appreciate the extent to which their service areas are affected by extreme weather events

• need to understand that operational staff are more aware of weather vulnerabilities, than staff dealing with contractual or strategic issues

• realise that working knowledge of effects of past weather events is often informal rather than systematically recorded and monitored

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Determine thresholds for Service areas

• Follow up sessions with professional/operational managers helps to extend the understanding of the weather sensitivity

• Establish indicative thresholds – at departmental level consider the detail of the weather conditions that triggered the problem

• Set up systematic monitoring arrangements to have better data for next 5 years

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Use thresholds to explore future climateDaily max. temperature probability of exceedance

Baseline (1961-90)31oC has 1% chance[I day per summer]

2080s, medium-high emissions31oC has 11% chance[11 days per summer]39oC has 1% chance

Central England summer temperature:

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Networks…

• Professional / technical people with specialist knowledge are comparing impacts and exploring solutions within their areas of expertise.

• Networks within and across local government

• Local business networks

• Local strategic partnerships (health, police, businesses,…)

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Practical lessons learned

1. elaborate climate science and modelling outputs may not be the best route through which to engage many types of stakeholders

2. it can be more effective to start with an organisation’s current vulnerability to weather: eg. recent weather events and their impacts

3. the main drivers for organisations to adapt come from reducing risk and exploiting new opportunties: so we use the language of ‘climate risk’

4. the UKCIP toolkit will be further improvement to be of practical use to the full range of stakeholders by developing, trialling with stakeholders

5. Knowledge transfer is a two-way process: UKCIP advises stakeholders on climate and weather impacts: stakeholders explore adaptation strategies: the new knowledge then becomes a wider resource for all.

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www.ukcip.org.uk