shaping the futureoht 1.1 module 1: redefining the present
TRANSCRIPT
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.11
MODULE 1:MODULE 1:
REDEFINING THEREDEFINING THEPRESENTPRESENT
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.22
TERMINAL OBJECTIVETERMINAL OBJECTIVE
The students will be able to The students will be able to employ creative approaches to employ creative approaches to identify problems having an identify problems having an impact on organizational impact on organizational effectiveness.effectiveness.
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.33
ENABLING OBJECTIVESENABLING OBJECTIVES
The students will:The students will:
• Use an environmental scanning process to Use an environmental scanning process to identify existing or potential organizational identify existing or potential organizational problems.problems.
• Analyze the effect of paradigms on creative Analyze the effect of paradigms on creative problem identification.problem identification.
• Identify specific fire service paradigm shifts Identify specific fire service paradigm shifts which would improve future organizational which would improve future organizational effectiveness.effectiveness.
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.44
World
U.S.State
Community
Fire Officer
Fire Dept.
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.55
What are the causes/sources of What are the causes/sources of ambiguity in today'sambiguity in today's
public sector organizations? public sector organizations?
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"Future sense involves the paradoxical "Future sense involves the paradoxical attitude of not completely attitude of not completely understanding today's chaos, not understanding today's chaos, not knowing what the future will be, and knowing what the future will be, and yet believing we can be a part of yet believing we can be a part of creating the kind of future we desire." creating the kind of future we desire."
(Gelatt, 1993)(Gelatt, 1993)
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.77
EXPANDING YOUR EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVEPERSPECTIVE
CertaintyCertaintyandand
ControlControl
FlexibilityFlexibilityandand
AdaptabilityAdaptability
VS.VS.
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EXPANDING YOUR EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)
LimitedLimitedPerspectivePerspective
TheThe"Big Picture""Big Picture"
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EXPANDING YOUR EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)
InternalInternalFocusFocus
ExternalExternalFocusFocus
VS.VS.
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EXPANDING YOUR EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)
Looking Looking for the for the Right Right
AnswerAnswer
VS.VS.
Asking Asking the the
Right Right QuestionQuestion
??!!
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.1111
EXPANDING YOUR EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)
EliminatingEliminatingor Avoidingor Avoiding
ConflictConflict
AcceptingAcceptingConflict asConflict as
HealthyHealthy
VS.VS.
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EXPANDING YOUR EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)
Being Being Uncomfortable Uncomfortable
with with AmbiguityAmbiguity
FindingFindingMeaning andMeaning andPattern AmidPattern Amid
the Clutterthe Clutter
VS.VS.
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ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
Monitoring and tracking Monitoring and tracking what's happeningwhat's happening
• Current and futureCurrent and future
• Internal and externalInternal and external
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"Change itself has changed. It has "Change itself has changed. It has been so rapid, so complex, so been so rapid, so complex, so turbulent, and so unpredictable turbulent, and so unpredictable that it is now called 'white-water that it is now called 'white-water change'." change'."
(Gelatt, 1993)(Gelatt, 1993)
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.1515
BASIC SYSTEMS THEORYBASIC SYSTEMS THEORY
TRANSFORMATIOTRANSFORMATIONN
Environm
entEnvironment
PPooll iicciieess MMiissss iioonn SSttrruu ccttuu rree
LLeeaadd eerrsshh iipp
PPrroocceedduu rreess PPrreepp aarraatt iioonn
INPUTINPUTPeoplePeopleInformationInformationMoneyMoneyMaterialsMaterialsPolicyPolicy
OUTPUTOUTPUTServicesServicesProductsProductsPersonPersonChangesChanges
FEEDBACKFEEDBACK
EnvironmentEnvironment
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.1616
PURPOSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
• Understand/Manage the presentUnderstand/Manage the present
• Predict the futurePredict the future
• Develop strategiesDevelop strategies
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"In our normal thought processes, most "In our normal thought processes, most of us are problem-solvers. We gather of us are problem-solvers. We gather and analyze facts and data to reach an and analyze facts and data to reach an answer or a solution...answer or a solution...
"As environmental scanners, however, "As environmental scanners, however, we start from a known position and use we start from a known position and use facts and data to develop facts and data to develop questions, questions, not not answers, and answers, and problems, problems, not solutions..."not solutions..."
(Stoffels, 1982)(Stoffels, 1982)
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.1818
EXTERNAL ISSUES AND TRENDS
• Information and technologyInformation and technology
• Economic and financialEconomic and financial
• Governmental/PoliticalGovernmental/Political
• Human resourceHuman resource
• Service deliveryService delivery
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INTERNAL ISSUES AND TRENDS
• Changing employee valuesChanging employee values
• Organizational culture shiftsOrganizational culture shifts
• Responsiveness/Effectiveness of the Responsiveness/Effectiveness of the organizational structureorganizational structure
• Relevance/Clarity/Acceptance of the Relevance/Clarity/Acceptance of the mission/philosophymission/philosophy
Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.2020
"SWOT" ANALYSIS"SWOT" ANALYSIS
• SStrengthstrengths
• WWeaknesseseaknesses
• OOpportunitiespportunities
• TThreatshreats
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FORMING AND SHIFTING PARADIGMS
A paradigm isA paradigm is
• A point of viewA point of view
• A frame of referenceA frame of reference
• A set of rulesA set of rules
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PARADIGM PARADIGM DISADVANTAGESDISADVANTAGES
• "Blind spots""Blind spots"
• Paradigm paralysisParadigm paralysis
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SHIFTING YOUR PARADIGMSHIFTING YOUR PARADIGM
FlexpertiseFlexpertise
• Continually adapt, innovate, and Continually adapt, innovate, and changechange
• Unfreezing and refreezing Unfreezing and refreezing paradigmsparadigms
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"Making up one's mind, an essential "Making up one's mind, an essential skill of the past, may now be no skill of the past, may now be no more important than a new essential more important than a new essential skill of the future--learning how to skill of the future--learning how to change one's mind." change one's mind."
(Gelatt, 1993)(Gelatt, 1993)
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SETTLERS VS PIONEERS
Accept Accept status quostatus quo
Resist changeResist change
Low risk-takersLow risk-takers
Rely on "the Rely on "the numbers"numbers"
Want it to be "safe"Want it to be "safe"
Challenge Challenge status quostatus quo
Seek out changeSeek out change
High risk-takersHigh risk-takers
Rely on intuitionRely on intuition
Make it "safe" for Make it "safe" for settlerssettlers
Challenge Challenge status quostatus quo
Seek out changeSeek out change
High risk-takersHigh risk-takers
Rely on intuitionRely on intuition
Make it "safe" for Make it "safe" for settlerssettlers
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REFRAMING
• Changing the lensChanging the lens
• Altering our perspectiveAltering our perspective
• Using a different vantage pointUsing a different vantage point
• RefocusingRefocusing
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SUMMARYSUMMARY
• Environmental scanningEnvironmental scanning
• ParadigmsParadigms
• Adapt, innovate, and changeAdapt, innovate, and change