The Feasibility of the Two State Idea:

Israel – Palestine

Shaul Arieli

2015

• 673,400 Arabs • 83,790 Jews

Two national narratives which contradict each other. But every one of them has political, legal

and moral validity.

: “…only by means of partition can these two opposing national aspirations be manifested in concrete terms, and the two peoples allowed to take their place as independent nations in the international community and in the United Nations…” (Partition Report).

“There Is No Alternative”The two sides entered into the peace process

in 1988-1993 in the belief that the diplomatic option was the best way of

securing their national interests in light of the regional and global developments at the

time:

USAGulf WarDemographic balance Intifada

YearIsrael

(78%)

2013 79.3%

2020 78.5%2024 78.1%

2030 77.4%2034 77.4%

2050 78.7%

Demographic Trend - Jewish Population

West Bank – Israeli Settlement

570,000 Israelis(100%)

137 Settlements(100%)

130,000 Israelis(23%)

107 Settlements(78%)

440,000 Israelis(77%)

30 Settlements(22%)

97.1%Jewish

communi

ties

Jewish

residents

Arab

communi

ties

Arab

residents

Total

residents %Arabs

Jordan Valley &

Nth. Dead Sea 45 51,135 249 664,152 715,287 92.8

Western Judea &

Samaria 34 83,287 163 422,787 506,074 83.5

Mountain Ridge 28

31,313 284 1,065,151 1,096,4

64 97.1

Jerusalem

Surrounds 30 387,552 96 517,155 90,4707 57.1

Total 137 553,287

792

2,669,245 3,153,5

32

83

Percentage of Palestinians in 4 zones of Jewish settlement

92.8%

83.5%

57.1%

YearLand of Israel

(100%)Israel without Gaza

2013 52.2% 61%

2020 49%2024 47.7% 57%

2030 44%2034 46.4% 55.8%

2050 33%

Demographic Trend - Jewish Population

Israel

Democracy

Jewish state

Jewish state

On the regional and national level, demographic processes are influencing three key goals: 1. To be a Jewish state2. To be a democratic state3. To extend over the entire

historical territoryHowever, Israel can only realize two of these three goals simultaneously:4.It can be Jewish and

territorial…But not democratic

5.It can be democratic and territorial…

But not Jewish6.It can be Jewish and

democratic…But not territorial

Geography

Demographics

• Borders: 1967 lines as a basis and territorial exchange on a 1:1 ratio

• Jerusalem: Division of East Jerusalem between the two capitals

• Refugees: Solution to the refugee question that is not based on immigration to to Israel

• Security: The Palestinian State will be demilitarized and all forms of violence must end.

• Two states, a national home for the Jewish people and a national home for the Palestinian people

Parameters of an Agreement

428.5 sq.km

21 km

85% of Israelis in 56 communities under Israeli sovereignty

90K

63% of Israelis in 30 communities under Israeli sovereignty

220K

The basic tensionThe fundamental dilemma How to reconcile reliable

security arrangements with the minimum possible

disruption to Palestinian sovereignty?

? ? ? ? ?

Key Assumptions:1. It is not possible to separate the Palestinian issue and

the regional situation.2. The Middle East suffers from a high level of

uncertainty, it is difficult to predict where the processes lead us.

Israeli Perception

10M internally displaced 3.5M refugees Over 250K deaths

10% children

1/3 buildings destroyed ½ hospitals destroyed

CW attacks ½ the army defected (mostly seniors)

The Situation in SyriaChall

enge

s

IraqChall

enge

s

1. Divided State 2. Iranian dominance and influence through

Shiite militias

Iran’s growing influence

The major changes in Past decades

1. USA -The only superpower(1988)2. Peace Agreement with Egypt(1979)3. Mutual recognition between Israel and

the PLO & Oslo Agreement(1993)4. Peace Agreement with Jordan(1994)5. Arab League Peace Initiative(2002)

Bilateral security: From control on the ground to disarmament and security arrangements

Key Assumptions

3. To establish a stable, functional and responsible Palestinian state without harming Israel's security needs.

4. Israel wants to ensure that if the agreement with the Palestinians collapses, its security situation would not worsen.

5. It takes time to rebuild the trust between the parties

• Preventing terrorism and attacks from the borders – and restrictions on armament.

• Establishing "conditional security depth."

• Security cooperation – bilateral, trilateral (Jordan, Israel, Palestine) and regional.

• An international force to operate as part of the security arrangements between Israel and Palestine, undertaking monitoring and mentoring and deterring violations of the agreement.

The Israeli Security Perception Regarding a Future Agreement

with the Palestinians is Based on Four Pillars:

Agreed Security Arrangements

1. Demilitarization2. Presence of international forces3. Early warning stations4. Israeli control of airspace

Security in the two state solution

• The duration of temporary IDF presence: 5-15-40

• Transfer of responsibility: multinational force/NATO/American/Palestinian

• Crossing points supervision

The Jerusalem Issue“We won’t be asked to divide something

that is already divided” (Teddy Kollek)

Jerusalem: Division of Neighborhoods on Demographic Basis

2.5" ר קמ70,000 Residents• Palestinians -

Demographic division

• Israel- International Management

Residence – Palestinian refugees may return to the Palestinian state, remain in their host countries or emigrate to a different consenting state.

Israel proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 1000 each year for 5 yearsPalestinians proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 10,000 each year for 10 yearsCompensation – an international mechanism will manage the financing of treatment and compensation of the refugees issue

Refugees

No Real Alternatives

Division of Responsibilities in the West Bank

Area A1,173,69

7

Area B886,011

Area C 74,756

Total population of West Bank: 2,134,464

Area A18%

Area B22%

Area C60%

% of Area of the West Bank

Distribution of the Total Population in the West Bank

“Stability Initiative:”“Israel will Annex C Areas (60% of

the West Bank) and the Palestinians will have a “Self Rule” in the Palestinian Cities” (Naftali Bennet, 2012)

One State

•Gaza?•Refugees?•Economy?•Security ?

“Full Annexation :”“To start a process which at the

end of it the Palestinians will have “Blue I.D, Yellow Number, Social insurance and a Right to vote to the Knesset” (Elitzur, 11)

“I prefer the Palestinians as Israeli Civilians rather than divide the Land” (Reuven Rivlin, 2011)

One state inc. Gaza

One state without Gaza

Israel 2013 inc. East Jerusalem

13

10

7

Unemployment rate (16+)Series1

One state inc. Gaza One state without Gaza Israel 2013 inc. East Jerusalem

23,71027,331

40,000Per Capita GDP ($)

One state inc. Gaza One state without Gaza

Israel 2013 inc. East Jerusalem

287,781

286,014

280,984

GDP ($ Millions)

“Jordan is Palestine”:

– “The Palestinians in Yehuda ve-Shomron will have

to choose to be Israeli Inhabitants and Citizens of

the Palestinian-Jordanian State and Vote for the

Parliament in Amman” (Arieh Eldad, 2009)

Is Israel a Villa in the Jungle?Can Israel keep continue with the

current situation?Stagnation & Potential

deterioration

Hamas Challenge

The Sensitivity of the Temple Mount

West Bank - Individual Terrorism

International “Involvement”

According to the latest UN report:Foreign investments in Israel have fallen by

Since Operation Protective Edge, total overnight stays by tourists in Israel have fallen by

20146.4 billion

20138.1 billion

46%

25%

An agreement is necessary before:

• The existing political leadership is replaced

• Iran - the destructive power - achieves nuclear capability

• Hamas takes over the PLO• The international community begins to

impose boycotts and sanctions against Israel

• Extreme nationalism takes over Israeli democracy

• A visible increase of anti-Semitism in the world because of Israeli policies

תודה!

. .shaul@orsha co il

. .WWW SHAULARIELI COM

ARIELI SHAUL

“But here, too, we must tell the whole truth:In the heart of the Jewish homeland a large population of Palestinians now lives. We do not wish to rule them, to manage their lives, or to impose our flag and our culture on them.In my vision of peace, two free peoples live side by side in our small country, in neighborliness and mutual respect. Each has its own flag, anthem, and government. And neither threatens the security and existence of its neighbor.”

Bar Ilan Speech 2009