shifting ground: changing attitudes to immigration

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1 1 immigration Shifting ground: Changing attitudes to Bobby Duffy, Ipsos MORI Senior Visiting Research Fellow, King’s College London

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Page 1: Shifting ground: Changing attitudes to immigration

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immigration

Shifting ground: Changing attitudes to

Bobby Duffy, Ipsos MORI

Senior Visiting Research Fellow,

King’s College London

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1. People have become MORE positive about

immigration in the last couple of years…

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Pretty big positive shift in attitudes…

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16

On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain?

(0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”)

2015 General Election 2015 Refugee Crisis EU Referendum

Base: 1,301 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between February 2015 and October 2016

Negative (0-4)

Positive (6-10)

Mirrored in other studies…

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Reflected in individual-level change…

On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on the local area

Positive (35%) Positive (46%)

Neutral (20%)

Neutral (20%)

Negative (46%)Negative (34%)

Base: 1,256 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between the February 2015 and October 2016

October 2016February 2015

where you live? (0-4 “Negative”, 5 “Neutral”, 6-10 “Positive”)

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2. …BUT people still want immigration

reduced

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Six in ten still want immigration numbers reduced…

Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased

5%

3%

3%

5%

6%

5%

23%

24%

27%

22%

20%

23%

40%

42%

37%

4%

5%

4%

Feb 2015

Pre-Brexit 2016

Post-Brexit 2016Increase a lot

Increase a little

Remain the same as it is

Reduced a little

Reduced a lot

Don't know

a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot?

Base: 2,765 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

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And much less individual level change…

Increased

9%

Remain

the same

25%

Reduced

65%

Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased

a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot?

Increased

7%

Remain

the same

29%

Reduced

64%

Feb 2015 October 2016

Base: 2,765 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between 14-25 April 2016 and 13-20 October 2016

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3. …of course, people are often very wrong

about scale of immigration…

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10 ©Ipsos.

THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK

ARE IMMIGRANTS (I.E. NOT

WHAT PERCENTAGE OF

BORN IN THIS COUNTRY?)Actual… Guess…

13% 25%33%14%

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Emotional innumeracy…

We overestimate what we worry about as much as worrying about what we

overestimate

Vital implication:

myth-busting will have

limited impact

Misdiagnoses issue:

emotional reactions require

emotional responses?

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Explaining Nativist/Anti-immigration views

Nativist/Anti-

immigration

sentiment

9%

12%

17%

5%

3%

Does not value diversity

Opposed to political correctness

and suspicious of human rights

Strong belief individuals should

look after themselves

Strong sense of

authoritarianism

Nostalgic for Britain’s past

Belief that the system does

not work for them

personally

Base: 2,765 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

11%

9%

5%

Think Britain will be in strong

position to negotiate trade post-

Brexit

Do not trust experts

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Most negative about

immigration

The different population segments

28%

Anti-immigration groupConcerned about immigrants taking away welfare services and jobs. Nostalgic for the past. Least

likely to mix with people from different backgrounds; don’t value diversity. Low levels of trust in

others and experts. Strong authoritarian views. Older, lower levels of education. social renters.

Highest support for UKIP. Voted heavily to Leave

23%

Mid group – comfortably off but culturally concernedOptimistic about their future, income inequality acceptable. Highest levels of trust in others, open

to diversity, second least nostalgic group. Don’t feel personally threated by immigration. Oldest

group, retired,, most likely to own house outright. Highest support for Tories. Split on EU ref vote

25%

Mid group – under pressureSecond highest group to think other people get priority over them for public services and

immigrants get priority over jobs. Second least emphatic group about diversity. Youngest age

group, highest no. of part time workers. Biggest concern issue facing Britain is the economy.

Politically disparate and highest group of undecided voters.

Most positive about

immigration

24%

Open to immigrationMajority think immigration levels should stay same. Trust others and experts. Value diversity and

human rights, want a fairer more equal society but. Believe they will be worse off than parents’

generation. Well educated, highest group of private renters. Highest group of Labour supporters.

Mostly voted Remain.

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6. Those who are most “open to immigration”

are most stable in their views…

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7. Cultural/economic interaction

important to understand emergent

political fault-lines…

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19%

6%

19%

8%

34%

25%

36%

22%

26%

29%

32%

33%

16%

30%

5%

23%

3%7% 4%

12%

1%3% 3% 2%

Conservative Leave Conservative Remain Labour Leave Labour Remain

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagee Don't know

To what extent, do you agree or disagree…things in Britain were better in the past?

Group 1. Leave voters more likely to think Britain was better in the past

Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted

leave in the referendum, and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

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14%7%

49% 46%

35%

32%

36%36%27%

29%

9% 12%18%

23%

2% 3%3%6%

1% 2%2% 3% 3%1%

Conservative Leave Conservative Remain Labour Leave Labour Remain

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree or disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

To what extent to you agree or disagree… the British economy is rigged towards the rich and powerful

Group 2. Labour supporters are more likely to think economy rigged

Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum,

and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

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Group 3. Gradient on type of society want…

74%

60%

32%

23%

17%

30%

54%

64%

9%

11%

13%

13%

Labour Remain

Labour Leave

Conservative

Remain

Conservative

Leave

I would like to live in a society which emphasises the social and collective provision of welfare

l would like to live in a society where the individual is encouraged to look after him or herself

No Opinion

Which of the following statements comes closest to your ideal?

Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum,

and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

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Thank you

Bobby Duffy

[email protected]

@BobbyIpsosMORI