shoreline school district enrollment, demographic trends ... · enrollment, demographic trends, and...

Shoreline School District Enrollment, Demographic

Trends, and Projections

William L. (“Les”) Kendrick Ph.D. (Consultant)

Presented to the Shoreline School Board

April 27, 2015

2 Trends and Projections – Mar 2015

Outline •  First, a Review of the Last Report

•  Enrollment Trends (Shoreline and the Region)

•  Births and Enrollment

•  Population and Housing

•  Forecast


Projecting the Future What I Said in 2006

•  The general trend should be one of flat/declining enrollment between now and 2013 with enrollment increasing after that.

•  The extent of the decline (2006-2013) and the subsequent increase (2013-2020) will depend on –  The overall increase in the county population and

especially the school-age population as a result of growth in the area.

–  The size of future birth cohorts –  The proportion of the county population that opts to live

within the District’s boundaries


How Did Things Turn Out? •  Enrollment declined from 2006 to 2012 with increases in the

past two years.

•  The school-age population has increased more than expected because…

•  Much larger birth cohorts than predicted in 2006

•  After a decade of declining population more people are opting to live in the Shoreline area with estimated growth of 1.7% in the population since the 2010 Census (State Office of Financial Management Estimate).

Enrollment Trends


District Enrollment Trend P223 Enrollment (October)

Note: Some Numbers May Have Changed Since Originally Reported

9,499 9,619 9,869 9,956 9,98010,393 10,538 10,440 10,213 10,134 10,099 9,924 9,879 9,853 9,873

9,412 9,147 8,943 8,907 8,808 8,717 8,714 8,8829,180

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Oct-91

Oct-92

Oct-93

Oct-94

Oct-95

Oct-96

Oct-97

Oct-98

Oct-99

Oct-00

Oct-01

Oct-02

Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Oct-11

Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14


Elementary Enrollment Trend Shoreline School District October Enrollment K-6

5230 52415415 5338 5285

5464 5421 52925072 5012 5024

4866 4773 4741 4620 45474319 4327 4428 4461 4521 4587 4721

4959

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Oct-91

Oct-92

Oct-93

Oct-94

Oct-95

Oct-96

Oct-97

Oct-98

Oct-99

Oct-00

Oct-

01

Oct-

02

Oct-

03

Oct-

04

Oct-

05

Oct-

06

Oct-

07

Oct-

08

Oct-

09

Oct-

10

Oct-

11

Oct-

12

Oct-

13

Oct-

14


Middle School Enrollment Trend Shoreline School District (Grades 7-8)

October Enrollment

14161551 1578 1590 1593 1593

1635 16481565 1579 1542 1550 1586 1589

1602 15681473

13951321 1347 1366

1382 1402 1395

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


High School Enrollment Trend Shoreline School District (Grades 9-12)

October Enrollment

2853 2827 28763028 3102

33363482 3500 3576 3543 3533 3508 3520 3523

3651

3297 33553221 3158

30002830 2745 2759 2826

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


ELL/TBIP Enrollment Data from the October P223 Reported to OSPI

473

547494

570 564517 516

549 561 543 560 559 570 550

651

01002003004005006007008009001000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


King County Public Schools Enrollment Trend

249319 250399 249971 250791 252241 254,294 255,246 253,766 255,087 256,730 258,788 262,319266,260 270,546 275,167

-0.1%0.4%

-0.2%0.3% 0.5% 0.8%

0.2%-0.3%

0.5% 0.7% 0.8%1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%15.0%

Enrollment Percent Change

Larger birth cohorts start enrolling in school

King County School Districts Change in Enrollment Oct 2010 to Oct 2014 LAST FOUR YEARS

Numbers may have changed since the original reporting of the data

5240

2120 19471530 1328 1193 1124

787457 413 372 181 106 96 94 48 32 -‐3

-‐178-‐508-‐1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Seattle

Lake Washington

Issaquah

Renton

Highline

Northshore

Bellevue

Auburn

Snoqualmie Valley

Tahoma

Shoreline

Mercer Island

Vashon Island

Tukwila

Kent

Federal Way

Riverview

Skykomish

Technical College

Enumclaw

-‐50%

-‐40%

-‐30%

-‐20%

-‐10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Change 2010 to 2014 Percent

Trends and Projections – Mar 2015 12

Net Gain of 16,379 Students in King County: 2010-2014

12427

1003988608727

12618

9911

6517

14391189

4714

855

2397

376

3152

916

-742

2170

656 12172154

1008

4583

6207

-3000-100010003000500070009000

110001300015000

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

200

8-09

200

9-10

201

0-11

2011

-12

201

2-13

2013

-14

Net Change in 4 County Public School Enrollment: King, Pierce, Snohomish, and Kitsap Combined

(Over Half-‐a-‐Million Public Schools Students in 4 CounDes) P223 Reported OCTOBER Enrollment

Numbers are Updated and Changed Periodically; The Trend is More RELEVANT than the Specific Numbers


Net Change in Enrollment by County Oct 2013 to Oct 2014


Public and Private School Enrollment King County (K-12 Only)

Source: P223 and P105 Report --State of Washington Headcount

33,042 34,02134,837 35,024 34,490

32,245 33,18834,275 35,426

36073 36624 36055 36,282 36,375 36,45235913

249769249587249319250399249971250791252241

254,628255,246253,766255,087258,788

262,319266,260

270,546

275,167

256,909

240000

245000

250000

255000

260000

265000

270000

275000

280000

285000

290000

295000

300000

Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00

Oct-01

Oct-02

Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Oct-11

Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Private Schools Public Schools


Private School Market Share Has Fallen by Half-a-Percent Since 2008.

But it has been this low before and recovered to its previous level just above 12%

Birth Trends

Average Annual Births by County Source: State of Washington Department of Health Birth Files

22,173

10,0168,466

24,810

2,950

11,2549,279

3,034

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

King County Kitsap County Pierce County Snohomish County

Avg. Annual Births 1996-2005 Avg. Annual Births 2006-2013



King County Births Source: Washington State Health Department

21,573 21,646 22,212 22,007 22,487 21,778 21,863 22,43122,874 22,680

24,24424,899 25,190 25,057 24,514 24,630 25,032 24,910

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

This year’s cohort


Births in the Cities: Shoreline and Lake Forest Park (Combined Total)

Source: Washington State Health Department

487 491 483 504 515 519572 568

606 615 591632 613

657

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

Births 487 491 483 504 515 519 572 568 606 615 591 632 613 657

% of County Total 2.17% 2.25% 2.21% 2.25% 2.25% 2.27% 2.36% 2.28% 2.41% 2.45% 2.41% 2.57% 2.45% 2.64%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

This year’s cohort

Trends and Projections – Mar 2015

King County Birth Projections (Based on the Average of 2012 and 2013 Fertility Rates

and Projected Growth in Females in Their Child-Bearing Years Using the OFM Medium Range Population Forecast)

25057 24514 24630 25032 24910 25028 24999 25002 25077 25151 25248 25319 25476 25634 25792 25949 26107

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Actual Birth Cohorts (in yellow) eligible for school between 2014-2018 Projected cohorts for 2019 to 2030 Enrollment

Projections

20


Shoreline’s Share of County K-12 Public School Enrollment

3.99% 4.03%3.87% 3.94% 3.91% 3.87% 3.80% 3.72%

3.48% 3.47% 3.40% 3.32% 3.27% 3.28% 3.34%

0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Population and Housing Trends

Shoreline School District Population and Forecast Forecast #1: Housing Pipeline (New Home Trends) and Expected Housing Growth

Forecast #2: PSRC Estimates for the Cities of Shoreline and Lake Forest Park

1.0%

0.2%0.6% 0.8%

2.1%

1.3%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%

Population 64,815 66,270 65,547 69,101 75,000 79,492 89,918

Average Annual Growth Rates (Decade to Decade) 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 2.1% 1.3%

Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 20102020 (Based on Estim. Housing

Growth)

2030 (Based on County Growth

Rate)

2020 PSRC Estimate

2030 PSRC Estimate


Forecasts

Housing Units in the Shoreline School District: Census Data, Recent EsDmates, and a Forecast Based on

New Home Trends (NHT) Data and the Housing EsDmates from the Last City Comp. Plans


25,556 26,535 28,028 28,580 29,467 30,907

552 1,439 1,4401,4939790

10 ,0 0 0

2 0 ,0 0 0

3 0 ,0 0 0

4 0 ,0 0 0

50 ,0 0 0

6 0 ,0 0 0

70 ,0 0 0

Total Housing Units (Single-‐Multi-‐Family)

25,556 26,535 28,028 28,580 29,467 30,907

New Units Added 979 1,493 552 1,439 1,440

Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 OFM 2014 Project 2020*

Project 2030

27

* Units Added for 2020 is the number added between 2010 and 2020

Preferred Forecast of PopulaDon and Housing for the Shoreline School District

(Based on Housing Es/mates from New Home Trends, the Last City Comp. Plans, and Projected Growth for King County)


25,556 26,535 28,028 28,580 29,467 30,907

64,815 66,665 69,10175,000

65,54766,270

2.54 2.50 2.34 2.35 2.432.34

0

10 ,0 0 0

2 0 ,0 0 0

3 0 ,0 0 0

4 0 ,0 0 0

50 ,0 0 0

6 0 ,0 0 0

70 ,0 0 0

8 0 ,0 0 0

9 0 ,0 0 0

0

0 .5

1

1.5

2

2 .5

3

3 .5

4

4 .5

5


25,556 26,535 28,028 28,580 29,467 30,907

Population 64,815 66,270 65,547 66,665 69,101 75,000

Residents Per House 2.54 2.50 2.34 2.34 2.35 2.43

Census 1990

Census 2000

Census 2010

OFM 2014 Project 2020*

Project 2030

28

EsDmated Number of K-‐12 Public School Students Per Household


25,556 26,535 28,028 28,580 29,467 30,707

64,815 66,665 69,10175,000

65,54766,270

0.37 0.38 0.32 0.35 0.350.31

0

10 ,0 0 0

2 0 ,0 0 0

3 0 ,0 0 0

4 0 ,0 0 0

50 ,0 0 0

6 0 ,0 0 0

70 ,0 0 0

8 0 ,0 0 0

9 0 ,0 0 0

0

0 .5

1

1.5

2

2 .5

3

3 .5

4

4 .5

5


25,556 26,535 28,028 28,580 29,467 30,707

General Population 64,815 66,270 65,547 66,665 69,101 75,000

K-‐12 Public School Students PerHH

0.37 0.38 0.31 0.32 0.35 0.35

Census 1990

Census 2000

Census 2010

OFM 2014 Project 2020*

Project 2030

29

Enrollment Projections


What about the future? •  K-12 enrollment is expected to continue growing in King County over the

next decade due to larger birth cohorts entering the schools.

•  Shoreline will see some share of that future growth.

•  Similar to the last two years Shoreline will most likely continue to grow at a slightly faster rate than the overall King County K-12 population over the next four to five years. This is due to the larger birth cohorts that are expected to enroll from the District boundary area.

•  Between 2020 and 2030 we expect the District to grow at about the same rate as the County K-12 population.

•  Over the course of the forecast the District K-12 population is assumed to grow at about the same rate as the overall King County K-12 population (Medium Recommended Forecast)

Updated Projections

Low, Medium, and High


Alternative Long Range ProjectionsDifferent Models1) Based on Projected Change in the County Age 5-19 Population (OFM Medium Range Forecast)

Projected Based on County Age-Group Trend2000 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030

District Population 66,270 65,547 66,665 67,065 69,101 72,051 75,000Shoreline K-12 10,134 8,808 9,180 9,235 9,339 9,705 9,995K-12 % of Pop. 15.3% 13.4% 13.8% 13.8% 13.5% 13.5% 13.3%

K-‐12 Percent in County 19.0% 17.7% 17.2% 17.2% 16.9% 16.9% 16.7%

2) Based on Projected Share of the General Population and Projected Share of the K-12 Population2000 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030

10,134 8,808 9,180 9,380 9,924 10,132 10,418

3) Cohort Survival Six Year Trend2000 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030

10,134 8,808 9,180 9,360 10,054 10,493 10,573

4) Cohort Survival Three Year Trend (Recent Growth Trend Projected to Continue)2000 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030

10,134 8,808 9,180 9,450 10,330 10,872 10,954

5) Grows at the Same Rate as is Predicted for the King County K-‐12 Population (Preferred Forecast)2000 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030

10,134 8,808 9,180 9,335 10,311 11,004 11,101

2015 2020 2025 2030Average of Different Methods 9,352 9,992 10,441 10,608


Enrollment Projections 2015-2030 October Headcount Enrollment

Low, Medium, and High

Excludes Full-Time Running Start

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

Low Growth 9241 9347 9437 9561 9688 9836 9936 9968 10053 10088 10060 10013 9983 10002 9975 9977

Medium 8808 8717 8714 8882 9180 9399 9592 9765 9966 10166 10383 10595 10724 10902 11017 11041 11034 11031 11057 11046 11063

High Growth 9557 9841 10100 10384 10665 10958 11296 11537 11825 12036 12126 12171 12203 12234 12244 12281

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

School Projections

Medium Range Forecast


Projection Summary by School Medium Growth Projections (2015-2024) Oct09 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Briarcrest 468 453 478 448 478 493 506 510 527 540 566 545 554 560 560 562 Brookside 520 479 510 517 519 522 527 544 576 587 593 609 606 606 601 601 Echo Lake 483 513 487 472 475 489 507 513 527 557 544 545 551 560 558 560 Highland Terrace 423 391 398 426 461 502 544 589 629 675 693 690 674 667 654 653 Lake Forest Park 437 495 512 522 502 570 587 608 643 669 673 684 677 682 679 680 Meridian Park 491 522 509 490 506 548 563 550 550 543 534 514 515 521 533 534 Parkwood 451 428 427 445 468 476 501 534 561 585 604 621 600 594 586 587 Ridgecrest 520 504 533 515 553 553 544 543 529 523 499 514 529 537 535 533 Syre 456 482 511 520 525 531 559 556 561 580 588 595 597 603 601 600 Totals 4249 4267 4365 4355 4487 4684 4839 4947 5104 5259 5294 5317 5303 5329 5308 5311 Einstein 681 699 713 720 746 733 692 752 791 749 828 929 970 952 939 947 Kellogg 597 612 621 632 617 620 656 679 663 687 757 773 761 753 778 795 Totals 1278 1311 1334 1352 1363 1353 1349 1431 1454 1435 1584 1702 1731 1705 1717 1741 Shorecrest 1488 1407 1360 1275 1268 1301 1303 1299 1301 1334 1354 1381 1475 1536 1622 1660 Shorewood 1640 1565 1446 1468 1489 1522 1599 1597 1579 1605 1597 1641 1747 1817 1922 1972 Totals 3128 2972 2806 2743 2757 2823 2902 2896 2881 2939 2950 3022 3222 3352 3545 3631 Cascade K-8 118 120 96 152 161 204 189 195 198 201 203 205 204 202 201 199 HM. EXC 132 136 111 107 108 107 115 117 119 123 127 127 126 126 122 124 Private Sp. Ed. 2 2 5 5 6 9 7 7 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 Totals 252 258 212 264 275 320 310 318 326 332 338 341 339 338 332 333 Totals 8907 8808 8717 8714 8882 9180 9399 9592 9765 9966 10166 10383 10595 10724 10902 11017 Numbers may not add to exact totals due to rounding. School projections beyond a few years are subject to large errors. Use with caution.

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