should the focus be on broader policy goals or on specific technology targets?
TRANSCRIPT
WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN
Should the focus be on broader policy goals or on specific technology targets? – A case study
scoping on the Swiss transportation sector
Ramachandran Kannan :: EEG, LEA :: Paul Scherrer Institut
ETSAP semi-annual workshop, Madrid, Spain 17-18 November 2016
•Overview of the Swiss energy system •Swiss TIMES energy system model (STEM) •Scenarios and results •Conclusions and outlook
Page 2
Outline
Overview of the Swiss energy system
Page 3
Energy Economy (2015) • Energy expenditure: CHF 26.36 Billion (4.1% of GDP) • Energy import: CHF 6.2 Billion (2.4% of import expenditures) • Energy import dependency: 75.4%
Overview of the Swiss energy system
Page 4
Electricity generation mix (2015)
Overview of the Swiss energy system
Page 5
The Swiss energy strategy 2050
CO2 emissions reductions in 2050 from 2010 level • Business as usual (WWB): 19 - 29% • Policy Measures (POM): 37-50% • New Energy Policy (NEP): 60-67%
Underlying demand drivers are same for all the scenarios!!
Without centralised natural gas power plants With centralised natural gas power plants
Overview of the Swiss energy system
Page 6
The Swiss energy strategy 2050
• 25 – 60% transport sector energy demand reduction by 2050 from 2010 level
• 30-40% electric cars by 2050
e-cars
Fuel demand
What are ultimate objectives of our scenarios?
Page 7
• To assess broader policy objectives
• Decarbonisation of the entire energy system (60-80%)
• Transport (or sectoral) energy, CO2 emission reduction targets in the energy strategy?
• To assess specific technology objectives
• To meet e-mobility targets in the energy strategy
• Certain fleet level CO2 targets on g-CO2/km basis
• A whole energy system model of Switzerland in an (cost) optimization framework − Primary energy supply to end use (all end-use sectors with sub-sector details, detail electricity and fuel
supply modules, CO2 emission tracking, taxes, etc.)
Page 8
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Fuel supply module
Fuel distribution
module
Demand modulesElectricity supply module
Resource module
Electricity import
Uranium
Natural gas
Hydrogen
Electricity export
Electricity
GasolineDiesel
Renewable• Solar • Wind• Biomass• Waste
Electricity storage
Hydro resource• Run-of rivers• Reservoirs
CO2
Demand technologies
Residential- Boiler - Heat pump- Air conditioner- Appliances
Services
Industires
Hydro plants
Nuclear plants
Natural gas GTCC
Solar PV Wind
GeothermalOther
Taxes & Subsidies
Fuel cell
Energy service
demands
Person transportat
ion
Lighting
Motors
Space heating
Hot water
Oil
TransportCar fleet
ICEHybrid vehicles
PHEV
BEV
Fuel cell
BusRail
Mac
roec
onom
ic d
river
s (e
.g.,
popu
latio
n, G
DP
, flo
or a
rea,
vkm
)
Inte
rnat
iona
l ene
rgy
pric
es (o
il, n
atur
al g
as, e
lect
ricity
, ...)
Tech
nolo
gy c
hara
cter
izat
ion
(Effi
cien
cy, l
ifetim
e, c
osts
,…)
Res
ourc
e po
tent
ial (w
ind,
sol
ar, b
iom
ass,
….)
Biofuels
Biogasvkm-Vehicle kilometre tkm-tonne kilometreLGV-Light goods vehiclesHGV-Heavy good vehiclesSMR-steam methane reformerGTCC-gas turbine combined cycle plant
Oil refinery
Process heat
FreightsTrucksHGVRail
Natural gas
Heating oil
• A whole energy system model of Switzerland.
• Long time horizon (2010–2100) & an hourly time resolution for typical days.
• Transparent and well documented model input data and assumptions.
• Peer reviewed publications.
Page 9
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Transportation module • 10 modes of demand (e.g. car, buses,
trucks) • 4 market segments for cars (<60kW, 60-
100kW, 100-140kW, >140kW) by fuel and drivetrain
• Simplified fuel distribution network • Transportation fuel taxes • Endogenous charging of electric cars
Page 10
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) Other modules Vehicle
technologyFuel
distributionDemands
Car fleetDiesel ICE
Gasoline ICE
Gas ICE
Hybrid Diesel
Hybrid Gasoline
Hybrid Gas
Hydrogen ICE
Plug-in hybrid
Battery Electric Vehicle
Hydrogen
Electricity
Gasoline
Natural Gas
Diesel
Hydrogen Fuelcell
Bus
LGV
HGV
Rail
Aviation
Electricity supply module
Personal transport
Freight transport Refinery
Resource module
Fuel conversion (e.g. Hydrogen,
biofules)
Biofuel
Taxes
Other end use sectors
CO2
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22
Nor
mal
ised
wee
kly
dem
and
Hours
Car drive pattern
Weekday
Weekend
• Base − Travel demands from Swiss Energy Strategy 2050 − Nuclear phase-out and option for new gas power plants − Annual self-sufficiency in electricity supply
Page 11
Scenario definition
• Transport CO2 emission mitigation − 40% CO2 emission reduction from 2010
level in transport sector as in the POM scenario (T-40)
− T-60 (as in NEP scenario) • Energy system-wide CO2 mitigation
− Whole energy system-wide CO2 emission reduction of 60% by 2050 from 2010 level as in the NEP scenario variant C (S-60)
− NEP scenario variant RES – i.e. 67% total reduction (or 80% in domestic CO2
emission) or (S-67)
• ICE hybrid (small size) • ICE diesel (long range)
Page 12
Car fleet technology and tailpipe CO2
• Fuel 40% reduction in fuel from 2010 level • CO2 53% CO2 emission reduction from 2010 level
Page 13
Car fleet fuel demand
Transport sectoral cap plug-in hybrid & biodiesel System-wide cap Battery electric and gas hybrid
Car fleet: Technology
2050
Gasoline hybrid cars
Gasoline plug-in hybrid
cars
Electric cars
Page 14
Electricity supply
Page 15
2050
Hydro
GAS
CHP
PV
Transport sectoral cap Electricity demand increase System-wide cap Electricity demand declines
CHP Nuclear
Page 16
Electricity supply and demand in 2050 W
inte
r wee
kday
s Su
mm
er w
eekd
ays
Marginal cost electricity
Gasoline hybrid car
Pumping
Exports
Demand
BEV charging
Battery electric vehicles
Base scenario
2050
• Transport sector CO2 emission targets shift the emissions to electricity and industry
Page 17
CO2 emissions
Electricity
Transport Industry
• Net emissions are higher than tailpipe emission • Still e-mobility contributes to net reduction
Page 18
Car fleet energy and CO2 emission
2050
• There is no linear relation between electricity demands and load profile Page 19
Electricity demands and load curves in 2050 Winter Summer
Page 20
Electricity demands and load curves in 2050
• E-mobility can decarbonise car fleet and contributes to net reduction in CO2 emissions.
• Transport specific CO2 target does not result in net system-wide reduction in CO2 emissions, instead it leads to carbon leakage to other sectors.
• Given the phase-out of nuclear generation, clear policy for electricity sector is required to ensure that capacity is built to achieve the low-carbon target, including signals for continued expansion of generation from renewable energy.
• It is essential to ensure consistency between policies on electricity and end-use sectors (e.g. promotion of e-mobility and expansion of new centralised power plants).
Page 21
Conclusions
• How to enhance mobility representation in STEM − Range and size are they independent?
− Short vs. long range cars − Big vs. small cars − Further disaggregation How to avoid computational
time? • How to address non-cost driver / barriers
− Battery charging time and infrastructure • Modal shift
− Refining demands from vehicle (vkm) to personal (pkm) − Is there a way to control domination of specific modes
(other than user constraints)? • Storage
− Is vehicle to grid reality?
Page 22
Outlook
Page 23
Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen
Thank you!