shripadtuljapurkar · pdf filestanford ca usa assistance from jia shang, huazhong ... old...
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GlobalTrendsinPopulationAgingandLongevityRisk
Shripad TuljapurkarBiology&PopulationStudies
StanfordUniversityStanfordCAUSA
assistance from Jia Shang, Huazhong Univ, and Wenyun Zuo, Stanford Univ
KEYINDICATORS
LIFEEXPECTANCYATBIRTH,e0AGINGindividualmeasures LIFEEXPECTANCYATage65,e65
WHATTHEINDICATORSMEAN
e0commonlyused
averagelengthoflife
e65averageremaininglifeat65
retired/older–annuity/insurance
KEYINDICATORS
LIFEEXPECTANCYATBIRTH,e0AGINGindividualmeasures LIFEEXPECTANCYATage65,e65
POPULATIONsize&wealth
TOTALPOPULATIONSIZEscale
PER-CAPITAGDP (ppp)wealth/consumption/livingstandard
PopulationPyramidBlue =Male,Red =Female
YDR=Young/Working
ODR=Old/Working
Young0-19Working20-64
Old65+
WHATSTRUCTURALINDICATORSMEAN
YDR futurelaborsupply(taxortransfercostsofyoung
capitalabsorption/productivitygrowth)
ODR retiredfraction(taxortransfercostpensions&healthcaresavings/availablecapital/annuitycosts)
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 1980
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19801980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 1985
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19851980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 1990
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19901980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 1995
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19951980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2000
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20001980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2005
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20051980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2010
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20101980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2015
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20151980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2020
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20201980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1985
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19851985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1990
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19901985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1995
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19951985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2000
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20001985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2005
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20051985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2010
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20101985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2015
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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●
ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20151985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1980
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19801980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1985
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19851980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1990
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19901980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1995
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19951980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2000
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20001980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2005
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20051980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2010
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20101980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2015
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20151980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2020
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20201980&2020