sidffvi 0141)1510w - national bureau of economic researchsidffvi 0141)1510w sia msi dmitf3o :uaoohq...

48
msi sia 0141)1510W SIdffVI 3HT 0MLHAMOD :UaOOHq DMITF3O 14ONMU$1 UJOD ?.1 UMA V81 obiofi .U I5fI3iM irrnjoisH micnsT VQ iqs nthoW HD51A3$1 DIMOM0D 10 UAEESIUH JAMOITAM unvA 3IUEI35aEM OO1 8CIO AM bhdrns ÔQQI (131aM iiIsiiqorf aor1w 1MI rli is isIorb rii3iiv a sw obioa badoiM 1ii1w nnhw esw iqsq ii1T 1nsfIi oi Ai1 bluow w noiu bus inrrImo3 1uñq1rt io1 .b31wonA3s '1IUhis1 I1 annA bna 13jq JIoko51 r1uH 4ib$1 a1nA ifl10 niwsJ iqsD irio1 ns3nmA r1i lo inrnqoIvU r1i th &naioiq f13l5i 51HT4 lo riaq i qaq iuLT sriswd noiniqo snA .hnonooH iainoM bus 23irnonoo13sM bus nniT IanoiisniinI monoI uLi io bnu1 viainoM 1snorXaniinI 1i lo aodi ion bus iodiua rL1 lo ouIi is biqx .uI3lB351 3Jrnono33 lo usiua IsnoilaM ,1xi lo noiio riou1 .brni irIh HA .imuosfl mimaT bns obioH .C1 1srbiM 'd )QQ! © Hurl iadi bbivoiq noi2aifmq ii3iIqx iuofftiw bioup 3d 'sm r[qss1sq owl b3x3 0110ff .xuuo di ol fl3vi i iion © nthrj13ni lib5u3

Upload: others

Post on 11-May-2020

8 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

msi sia 0141)1510W SIdffVI

3HT 0MLHAMOD :UaOOHq DMITF3O 14ONMU$1 UJOD ?.1 UMA V81

obiofi .U I5fI3iM irrnjoisH micnsT

VQ iqs nthoW

HD51A3$1 DIMOM0D 10 UAEESIUH JAMOITAM unvA 3IUEI35aEM OO1

8CIO AM bhdrns ÔQQI (131aM

iiIsiiqorf aor1w 1MI rli is isIorb rii3iiv a sw obioa badoiM 1ii1w nnhw esw iqsq ii1T 1nsfIi oi Ai1 bluow w noiu bus inrrImo3 1uñq1rt io1 .b31wonA3s '1IUhis1 I1 annA bna 13jq JIoko51 r1uH 4ib$1 a1nA ifl10 niwsJ iqsD irio1

ns3nmA r1i lo inrnqoIvU r1i th &naioiq f13l5i 51HT4 lo riaq i qaq iuLT sriswd noiniqo snA .hnonooH iainoM bus 23irnonoo13sM bus nniT IanoiisniinI monoI

uLi io bnu1 viainoM 1snorXaniinI 1i lo aodi ion bus iodiua rL1 lo ouIi is biqx .uI3lB351 3Jrnono33 lo usiua IsnoilaM

,1xi lo noiio riou1 .brni irIh HA .imuosfl mimaT bns obioH .C1 1srbiM 'd )QQ! © Hurl iadi bbivoiq noi2aifmq ii3iIqx iuofftiw bioup 3d 'sm r[qss1sq owl b3x3 0110ff

.xuuo di ol fl3vi i iion © nthrj13ni lib5u3

Page 2: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

uq WBEJ�bUUC1OU 141 O8ct4-JO3J pJu4Ou DC OflJb1UCf0U flUJA12TA OO TOW 2rLG IAJDcbumcur O EOUOUJ!C JuLuTouij jouqrn.A jnuqIufQLu1!ouJ icccp Dbn4wcuIAJJCIJGI D B°q° LUJ!W AOIIUJJ

MGLG rp wor iwbor.wu qccurnurnu oj rpc ir.A qIILCU oritcoui o iio Qbioq

rqobrGq pA tp nrpor.w or. ru xcr.irnj cujaouujQu' j r coucjnqq rpr xLuij cor.

BI1!U !U T O CGJJTU rpc qcL O MP!CP W OfIfCOUJ LGC1G qcr.cucc !IJ

c cowbtG rpG LG2r1wb1ou o couAGLupJIrQ !uo ojq pA tpc nuJcq ru uq

VBLKVC1

TO VI4D IO GOFD KEflYEkLIO142GEILIHO bEGGED: COhVIflMG IHE

Lcp JOOQW1BE fOLJUU bIthCL IOX

Page 3: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

AGJJ 92 1JJ6 boTTcte2 L6dnL6q' bt6i6 xq pA rererrou C9UJA

C926 O CJ16 fl1J146q 962 1J' LT4A 9 tJJCp 10 Z62fl6

1J16 O £6?flfl1b4t0U2 A6LG C9LL6 Ofl Ik6LA q t61.ez.rc Aa r' cp

L6COU ooqa 6XCJJ9ZJ6 £916 2A2GW OL p6 EHW

pWu 9L6 r.916 2A216w2 sxewbjeq pA ipe

oq auqwzq t92 cJ0261. o cou wb6q pA Moue1LA nurou

bzrce2 itorrjq P6 W 1J19r1J6q OL C6 OL62669PT6 tiTIlTL6 I'' PT 162b6C

9fl}JOLT6? L6Oueq 9 2A2161D ]JJ p6 6Xb6C9tOLI 1JJ9 6XCJJWJ6 L9C6

JJJ626 C92G2 9L6 O tU6L62 OL 6A6L9) L69201J2 01J pocp OCCW2TOU2 JJ6

ou b9LtA O t9) OU V1TJ 58 I5?

r' ro 9IJ o oq COUA6LCtPtItCA pA rxi

tt2- -JJ6 L62fl111b1t0U o COUA6L4tptTT4A pA 4JJ6 flUfl6q 1962 ou

COfliJJ462 L6tTLU6 10 JJ6 xeq 6XCWIJ6 L96 ojq 2IWIJq9Lq I JJ6 orrzrnrr" nuq6L219uqpJ P626 raasT6? j6 OCfl2 rtboii o C62 rr "Pt'P W9OL

j.'r b9bGL bLoAq62 20W6 pocj beL?b6cqA62 iqJcJJ W9A 6 ot r'

66IJ q6p9Gq

9coL2b p6 9qAa9pJ4A o irnonucp JJG tU9J bwLqe2 9JJ6B O W6 pcJ616LWT1JTIJ 1JJ6 W6 O 6U1IA IL JJ6 C926 o fl u qqou io

qoxnq bL622s-rLe ox.s pe rucrou r.9c6) 9Uq ou pS £OJG O W9L7C64 OLC62 P

2Aç6w (toL 6x9wbJs pepsx o cpoe 915 9bbL6c9ceq u oqz o pLpJ

JJ6 C926 °L 1P6 EBW' JJ6 tOCtt2 92 66U 015 JJ6 b9L1A 9 jJcp 10 6L116L p6t1J6L62 015 JJ6 22fl62 1MOJ6q 115 1OtLitu jx6q GXC9U6 L946 2A26W 1

EXCP9U6 Bc H6CJJ9UtW O 4p6 E(TLObG9J Mous48LA 2A26m (nw) ocriq

hLo2bGcl2 tOL EflL0b6SIJ OU6C8LA nurozi (i) ug GxbeLT6uc62 1JJ6

1 iucrogrzccou

Page 4: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

iito±Ujz deiiiifl srfi errO xzW bIoW iIs iarIo3 .ineve erfi s1o19d

iiisq W9Iq 3±1 1E 111diif9vno b1o 9fflU291 o no1insnI x1eth bsriuorzn&

lo lsa oi ro noliqsnuae1 xo 9ib a zsdile oi i1mmo o n1II1wnu eiew iud

n1vzaI aoqqz 91d1x911 a xo b9iqo \9dZ1 S9±1a2 .11 9V91d38 01 aslol.!oq

iZIEZ b93fllVflO3 919W e±1 fl9ffW nO1tqnuJ29x s3flUOflfIa Oi aelillOdiua s±1 oi ii

31MOflO9 rIiIW n9ia1anOo aaw 11

.a9mO3iJO flF191-flO1 1u1919Ib 1I9V bad anohqmua91 ow s±1 IIan11

io zt1xaq esnza 91±1 is b1o olnl eId1I9vno3 bsalamex rallob edT

bIxoW ri1wh eoqx bIos no oxadme ?t91ld a n.ibuIoxe 1CCQ[ o QV8I mor)

1iiflU--283'( (Ino IO 39q 2Z11 befl.talfllafll J2ZTirfO3 cf •n1Ixei2 .(enO mW

o s2qaIIoo 1sisne sib b9beo9xq IIEQI rsdmezqe2 o no1arIaveb sib

hel 917Zt1 aeoneheqX9 ifl9t91iib sasdT .bxabnaa 93r1sd3x9 bIos 1.swrezlnl edi

noliqmues1 mllob 1ano1iqsauas sib lo azrieinaaeaaa znsisu1b f3V o1

LIZ beiueeb n9iO noiiqnuJaex n1.[reia bna 293W £ b9me9b 't1IE19n9

.in9tiurisVO 9±1 'd IOf S 31W0(10390f OSLII inairoqmi

1i9V aiosqae1 insmni raeqqs d3irfw aeboalq9 owi :iaib rLbLIIia al ii

aidT .aaeneVli3e?t?x3 119th1 o ineinaaeaaz ineieiuib rbua oi bel evad mIImla

rI3Irfw oi seeb Sib snlinaxe Oi fSfrIO nI as3n9I9qx9 OVi 91±1 29ThfflO3 isqaq

1a3V.[ealfl3di a9ieaia eiai 9r1Zd3XS 9±1 b9i39fl91 9I2JIIZ 10 aa933u2 TISdi

io ,medi 9V9Id3a Oi aeI3IIoq cdi baa aeIiIzq nSaodo sib diod o aurlsi ni

d alib ob sW .berxuo ano1iqøwaei ethi d3infw ni itX91IUIOIiVfI9 IZJTI9iX9 sib

1asi cdi n1bJ.[3n1 1alzinetasbniñ 31ffl011039013a1n o iea noinmoo a n1flh1nSX9

bsiinU edT .inemaoiVns niMam c(oiloq eib neSd 9Vzd am eonere1b xedionA-'

.2.U cdi d3uoibIa boiicq sib ISVO kiad Iaxirieo eVsrf ion bib e,IaIIedmiT) 1Ioq '(IaienOsu eVIi3Z LIZ 9U2IU no1as33o no b1b i,aaeiT

(Qt

Page 5: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

COL L91' fl9]IJ £62OL6 bA ip bL6zfiBL L96 IJ Jc3 1 9 W6 O

tj1ucqoLqu u r..u9q0u9J ojq uqLg 1 9 o 6COIJOIIJTC bLoab6LTA

6U16LtU pa ZJO Aeç qowuu ecouowrc boAeL mvrcv L6opJ6q 9 I'tSJJ-

t1CC62 OL tWflITL6 O JJ6 2L86A jp wbq]A

6UATLOLJIfl6UC2 cp6 I'tO CO(1LflLt62 8c6q Wbb69L JJ9A6 G61J CLC9] O JJ6

rwbo.u U JJ6 G9LJA TÔO g9p6L JJ6A6LA q6L6L7 6XC6L1.181

pe LJJ 6COIJOWA t" P6 T5O 9IWO(JJ CJJGA W9A JJ9AG 661J mOL€

briLan6q I't6L6 UO J6 qowu9L t9COL 1J 6XbJ9t1JtU p6 6CO1.1OWC bLopJew2 O

I',6 coucrrqe pe wou6IA isq excpwue bojtcts p9l i'6L6

p9uqc9b 1o ij- cttA U qJ6 wg o J96 iaso661J 9 t9COL IJ JJ6 L6C62tOiJ O 4J16 6WLrA Tô5O r uoi 9

92OC9G M]JJ OA6LLJW6iJ W0U619LA 9uq 6XCJJ9U6 1€ boJtct6? 1fl9A 9A6

o16L6rou ruqc rci o L69f6 qGw8uq'

M9 L6A6L26 tLOW T85.-5ô vurAr2 'T'- 9 LflC(1L9] .A6COL

L6nwbçrOu 9 6wbOL9LA L619b26 pj onbn IJq fUJ6WbJOAU16IJ OCCflLL6q1 pn 1PT

9iU6 9 9Cpt6itU £6 wbtOii' ojjoz.t6q pX 9 LGCOA6LX nu bou

tUJ6WbJOAW6L11 ru JJ6 69LTX Th5O' PJ b9L L6tJ6CTLJ IJJC WOIJ6g9LA bOJtCr6

pX COL1L92 JJ6LG 92 9 T9L6 6CJIJ6 r L69J otibrr 9IJq L6 ru

osubri L6A 2t13ttTC9U4]A P6tOL6 qrrLu 9uq 916L L6et1WbqoIY ii' rr'-'W911J qr6L6uC6 t2 J JJ6 P6P81t0L O L69J 9CTIT1 I'J qJ6 flUC6g 2962

P6P9ATOL O W9LJA O 1JJ6 nuq9w6uw]-e 9LOf11J JJ6 £t1116 O £6fflDb1tOIJ JJJ6

JO 9ZW1Ctb96 OflL COUC]T12OU' 6 1JJ 24LTJquE b9L911612 1J 1JJ6

rq6urA pe twbor.9uC tWt9LtCt68 9uq 16L6UC62 tLI auqsL?u P6P9AT0L

P6P9ATOL O L69J 9CcTT1A 9uq nu6wbroAuJ6u 9CJO2 poJJ 6b?Oq6& 20 92 O

6XCJJ9U6 £96 9Uq L96 P9T9UC6 W0U619LA 9uq bOTTCT62 9uq p6

-3-

Page 6: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

IJOp16 6XWbJ6 P6tU ,L9UC6w r°' btA pgxj zeA pq wuruq bLtoL o p6 foLq fL 3J16 WO01JJ6L C26 1JJ6 COIJITU6UJ EflLOb6U COI1U1Lt6 p84 an qq oCG nuq 2we2) io oL or.m o ojq coueLcrpfl4A p 26A6LI5PLTtU W2 1JJ6 L2 O p6 WiOL tTL21 jojq L P6JJt6L6UZ (exceb oL

CODJJJJ6LCIØJ UJC2 2nebsuqeq 2becte coUAGLTprrtlA sxq pe qOWJ peIJCOU £1PTflCA O L66UPCJC A616 UO ebGC6q IJ ree 4JJ6

O p6 J6J 6LJg6r.) flhJ6L JJ6 rr juqei yce cp qe uq bLooua

seiipcjc (uou-T 6e-peLu U0162 q6uOwuw16q U gOJ]8L uq q6CTL6q

AoLp]-6 £62 6tUUtU i-u 6LTX rs rc pu rwrru bb6L WOLJ6)--JJ6

xwou pn pA jJ6 6uq o orniq rc qrrcnJi o eej-j pouq2

oLrrIJrrA iJ6uq6q o utic obGLwtou2 20]61A 1JJLOflJJ pOLLO1TIJ iiqJJJ6 yW6LCU P6 t' VJLTI 18QT JJJ6 6q6I. OA6LLmJ6U1

J" jpe flU6 2C6IF HraIoLrcr cjczonuq

AGCCOL 8ffOL6L62tOU? 26CCtOU 3 COUU CoiJCpiOi52 uq J62OI.J2 {flq6cowbo21ou O 616 qwuq uq enbbjA tCOL2 psaeq OIJ LffCt1L]

W9CLO6COJJOWTC LtPT62 OL 6Cp 6b?oqe' I'PTI6 26CflOU £6bOL

q6j" 26CflOU 3 6XUJtU6 uq JA6 f4JG 6Aop1çoU O COWIUOIJ as o

26CtOIJ q62CI.]p62 ps p21Oiqc9J- pcjconuq O 1J1€ 1A0 L6flWbSOU? tLJ WOL6

JJJ6 briJ tOL L6w7IJqGL ot ip bwbGL t2 tOTTOA2 JJY6 U6X

COLJ4L92IpJ otiiComGe O £6 btO eboq€

6LM]OiJW6IJ bb69t CO PWA6 66LJ CP6 qowuu CCOL IJ bLogflcU CJJG

46 2JJOCJC 0 1P° CL69C D6bL6etOLr ru 2OL CP6 6XC6LU

OL 6A6LJ AGL 6A6LJCtrITA OA6L!.tJJG]iM6q CJ36 A6w ircp 2 t1IJpJ6 10

couqGrpj-e 6COL7OWTC CttLaJ6UC6 LPt? CnPnT6UC61 JCJJOtfJJ u p6ArJC6

Page 7: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

L6GUCJC2 CO CP6 exbu2Tou ot uorrnj psuJc IJ0C62 ccogu 1o Lrequ

Cp LGCG TTWTC OU ucroiir 9LC UOCG2 uq ujcsq CPS L6CILGWSXJC ObLoceeq8 ot pouq 2JG2 CO CCIUIRJWC6 w ojq LG8ØLA6 e yci rao ewoqbLtCA Cp6 CC 9nCpOLreq CJJ6 LLGVanI.A CO ae enLbJ(m Le6UsIe uq C6

i'' gq 011 CO bLocT9Turtu CJJG qe ot Ler1wbCTou ug CJJG oLrrIrnr

woLTCA o oue

'unLA r' I8.?l PtcP cpe r9Ui6-qncj gebripTcwii coiite b9226q pA

COVAGLCTpTITCA ou ungr.A j' jg wqe V ipe i mnbCTou ot

pe qecou (Kuox A2 J'eG A r8rY Erurr? CJJS q6caou O L6flW6

flUCOU2CCflCOU (Hebprn.u 2 cLraojq EGpZ1TiA I8.\OY 911cI CJJGL1 £GA6Z2TU

2nbLewe COflLC 6C8OU2 TutCTIIA qecjps pe rer jqi VGC2

CJJ6 LGr22sfs o se wrrrrou o epeq L6GUpcjC2 83 exbuqu TC riq r'CJJ WIPTtC CLGC VCC O 18Q8 COLICLCC1J CG L661JPCJC T22n6'

pJceA (ra2o)Y LLtnmbp ot CP6 coutjrccru ;9CCr0u2 AGLG fflIJTt62C uIoLeq pe ecouou'A CO LOA ab CO TC2 moueA 2rTbbJA (nuet (rôQc')'

Lsr1mbCTon C qeA9]tiGq bxTdAb uq Aed OCPGL8 obbo2eq riuqne 6JCOU 1JcJ

2o1z6 o poui m6r.e obbo2eq c L62COLTU pe o]g 2d9uqLq' OCJJGL2 Ao1eq

pLq-woueA tcCoIJ2--qAocC62 ot rbq Le2nwbCou--uq eOtC-W0UGA t8CCTO11

E6pLcLA re o' pe VGXC 26A60 A6L2 tTGLC6 qepe zeq P6CA66LJ CJJ6

bce tjow CO 18Q8 eq CO W bnpjtc O(ICCLA uq CO L6bGJ O CJ.16 VCC t'

T82 WtCP bLOAq6q tOL CP6 flDiC6q O fl UOC6 DcJt1ru

£62$1IJJG bAm6ud C pe bLetL bLtCA t' CJ.JG COVCICCTOU VCC O VbLTJ T5

2POLCTA C6L C}J6 LWL djJ6 OA6LUUJ61JC IDq6 CJ69T. Td PJC6IJCTOIJ2 CO

CPS bI6L bLTCA

£bq q6bL6c1-cou tued 2CGLITUV bej.cu t- ie C oA6L qonpe

Page 8: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

qGbeuq6zJ oujX ou OA6r.TT OAGLLJwG1fl 2cJ exb6cctouKOIIJTCIC 911q fJJC6 (raa) JO A6 tU6LbL64tOU O 1JJ2 6b2OgG 9rerjrou uuq boitcA 9WJO$TIJC6W6IJI2 96CtU 1JJ6 O46LIJIU6IJ pnqeipe bc uq crwru o Le2n1nbqou qebeuqGq 20J6J1 011 2CWJ L12- -

2vccoLqu o crowrrra (1o88) tOJrOApJ MTICP6IT (raO) 9LJ gO (râ)'WA8LJ8G O SJJ2 bLOATTO1% o Leqncs pp bokeLGq moueAuo pX cp cow £ct9] pzJjca 1TCC622tAG 2GCL69LtG2 O 15J6 JL692flL1 Z00JCuoee .eaq tponc ccorniu oz nop-rucr.A £GtLG6Z ot uwrozswr 9UJCfiG ILG92flI.)L O 16i6 66U8C7C 6dfl91 4o fiG L02 9WOflU 0 U9tOUW] P9IJICJL692$fl.) bojtcA H 9Li76? f191 cp ycç 90IG fIG 2ecLecuLA ottWPG]I (Iô?) qrI66 b%flJJ EL6qTJJ9LI 9uq 2CP'tL 011 fIG £0T6 O£9-26q 1p6 bzGwTnm oii ipe obbotcG o iitp ta LsdnLGq

3IIq66q pA 9LflG pe ojq bnLcp6 boj1c? coruGLbLogaczAG UC6

6A6LICG O GXb6Cc6q L6GU9CJC 9bbr.6Ct9CtOU paq oil 8 UG9qAG tUC6L6C

r88' o8t) oip gofl (rs) uq 90WtLt2 (rags iq raa) bLG2GIJI

6UUOb IpTcp nbboL6q q.r couçrrrcou9J-cA o orq cr9nsa (c9rowrxr

911q bLpJCbJ ru Er 9IJq fJ6 2i7bL6W6 C0TC q€cou U AGIJt6 ujc .it62rImbflOU yci p?t fiG VCI O 9LCJJ T8 18 PrCJJ tI9L8LJ1G6q £6qGmb1Ou

fIG orq a9uq9Iq LtIJG M 1ticGi) pt2pf 21X A6912 G0L6 fIG

v crowrr (ias) boruc oru fiG cr.sqrpA o fiG L92OL8ToU o

fIG q9G IflTp1 9AG pG6IJ bobovGg (flhi6L bb ro-ir)9ccoqpJ o 0116 9! poqA L€2rIwbCtou ionq 110J JJ9A6 PGGIJ bL6A61J6q oujX

IJIOUGA f6bffp1tC9U H62 bOU p? OLJG 66COL81 AO6 A61' pq Irrqex. bOU

obboe€q co £6enwbrouJ JrrcI6I.J 9 aot-wouJ6X DGW0CL8 81Jq 8

GT6COLJ O JQ I92 OflJi 6b66U C00bGL' 1P6 C 66U9CJC c8uqq946' P410 !t9?

LLG82IILA O 9CCL1UJt196 ojq LG26LA6 9LJ O L6TL6 L691Jp9CJC2 fIG Pt6L

D6abt6 fIG 9UUOflUC6WGU O LG2(fllibOU 911q fIG 216b2 £9JC611 pA I6

£6J9qAG]A COXJ29IJ1 WOUGA eabbrA

bOt6L b9zIfA T' )9 PL92 9C6A6 pA JG £681 6COUOJIIA rib o

j0 qo TfJ JX692r1LA bOTTCT62 K624OI9flOU o bLGA9Z brrLcp92rU

9uq cpr (rY fiG 9CptGA6w6LJ O 2(iCC622fl] LGeflWbtOU iJ T8 pg

Page 9: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

646LJfl9J7A pg 91 bi 01111C6 P IJJG cojq 49UqHLq VCI 0 1sunHr.)ELJICTP D6JHUO J009A6J P6911 0 L926 JJ6 bLtc6 0 ojq' JJ91

L6qG1J2 A9 bLoppTeq pA u 6X6CJUT6 0L6L tIN ybq-j T833 veceq 6X6LUHT pnc U0 tU16W91 C0L7A6LtptJflA cojg 0IweLaprb pA nJJt6L6 A92 H 1o-AeHz ojq SUJpHLO p6A6611 jj ug J]JJLG9 0 Leanwbtou boa6g pA JG 6J8CTOU otbLTXJCrbHr ru ojq C6 JBzceL ueH11Ae anLbLtae £6tI6C42cLeqrprT1A O J16 Lsqeu1bcou o pouqt -TQ J.P t0TJJJ6L bO2TTA6 6XCp9Ue-L9cG 2t1LbLtG LGtJ6Cl2 JJ6

9wr9LA o au y9Q' AJJGU pe GLLOL ta j" uq 'iunwtA io rrue J.tJJGU

JJJG 6LLOL HLG cjoa o xo tOL woa o pe beLJoq1 mjip o 6xcebfloua:P666U JJta C9JCRHt0U 0 6Xb6C6q HbbL6Ct9t0U HUq HCCRHJ BbbLGCtHltOIJHIJWTHT paa U0W IHIJRBLA T88 0 D6CGWPGL I8S queq Ha t6L6UC6eCHTOItLta (r3) C9TCJTH62 JJ6 9bbtGCtVflOU t0LGCH?C 6LLOL 011 9 26W1-

2P6LWHU 2tIAGL B(1LCP96 vcc) A92 U0 mncp LGHZ6L JJ9U e beLceu

t J16 HtCHCt0U OAGL ]AGL j11 I8 (petoLG pG L6b69J 0 1JJ

JJOA6A6L' p6 bLOp9ptJtZA ot abecnJHItAG W9CJC ou ps og qojj9 9 4JJ6

og (L6q1u9u 9ug roe) v crrrr (iosa irrrs ) apoa'

J6 acocjc 0 JJrJJ-b0zt6L6q uiou6A anrcrezwrA o IJJLeHGu coUAGLCtptJtA ruco

0 I88 uq jJ6 2JJGLWHLJ 2TIA6 j,nLCpHas ¶C1 O T8O JJJG JH6L UCL6W26

£JJ9 1JCL6H2Gg 4J16 onauqu aiocjc o corua: cpe ]auq vrrraou VC

JJJG tLG6-aTr6L tOLC62 arrcceqeq TIN baau to bT6cea o

atJ6L

pq- uq aot-woueA HcoIJa couun€g OAGL ci raan o CO1IJHgG ot9JJJOiTp JJ6 flufl6q H16a A92 8CJC 011 9 ojq p92 JJ6 p9r6 pGA66u

cO4HrrA t.tp0fl4 JL69 U 4JJ6 6I1i1T1J fl Aa 9t46L L62flhiJbCtOU iii re

O2 b6L 0UC6 JJJ6 COIDT11JN6IJ o bHLT4X p0b6J6L uo

anccae tOL flU6g itp 6 bLtce ot og L61IIHTUtU XGq W

f60LHT0U 0 couA6Lqp[1A 0 org H 1JJ6 OLTUHJ b9LTA ttH?

gr6rsu1qH 6G6U pouga 6L6 b9q -' ZG6IJpHCJCa Hug O26 b8q ru

Page 10: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

bLG22nLe tow onipw DOWTIJtOU2 (ELG2uarr' r8)'8YLJOCJJGL SLf1W6UC I't52 CO L6?COLG W6 bLGAsz 2C6Lt1J 2AC6W CJJ6 tWC6 O

CO1126Ofl6UC62 O L QpnCpJ (ro2) H arlbboLCsg pA ope scsqewca'

suq StCGL C6 SCC ts norc6q pA rw 1C6Au62 ru PT8 CT.CC CP6 ECO11OWtC

rOuqOu9 AOCT6L0$T? ObbO2TCTOU CO L6nmbCt0u s CJJ6 OL rusr bSLTCA P6tOL6

t't52 AqerA P6It6A6 CPSC CPT zonjq L6COL6 CP6 bLeIsL JoLX O CpG CICA ot

OL L62flIJIbCTOLI C CJJ6 ojq bsLtCA btS2 CJJ6 xJ6€q CO TUCSTU cL6qprCA IC

oflot'tsq ru 2sTpedneIJC A6sL pA OCP6L ottrcrsr qoccnDezsCa JJJa jceA SLflfl161JC

bSLICA JJJ6 tIL2C CJ6SL SC6W6iJ P CJJ6 gGbOLC o raTs'

6xb16e6q S CLOIJ COWWTCWGLJC CO L6?CIWG orq bSAW611C SC CJJ6 oiuSrVICPO1TP C6 6XCS1J6 LSC6 1t62 SJJOP6 CO TOSC' ottrcrsr CTLCJG2

VCC O Th50

o' rara' i'ri 6C96 otrcrsr mrcp CJJG corq suq 2TTAGL (ExboLC COUCL0I)

LtCStU CO ?iI2b6IIq C6 tL66 6Xb0L O ojq pA SU OL6L tLJ O1111CJ o .jsx.cp

cOUCIOr SLlq tIJCGLA6UCtOU bz6cbCSCsq ojq orlCtroAe jp jeq

6XC61J2tA6 tUc6116UCtOU VC6L O2CflC6 c6526q' C6LIDTIJSCtOU O CJ36

bsr.Ctea CO COIJA6LC bSb6L cJStW T'-C oq' SIJq be6q CJJ6 bonxJq SC pA

eCslzqSLq H0646L' CP6 WOU6CSLA SflCpOT.tCt62 WSqS IC qrcrrrc OL bLTASCG

Vflfl2C Tôrc' "rr wcp rr' PrCr'' rrr or.insrrA 011 CJJ6 oq

q6L6vC6 I'ICP CJ16 fl C526 tS2 CpSC tLOlfl CJJ6 P6IJIJIJ O P0aCrrrCT6a I'-'

psq sqobCeq t.tISCtouSLA W0U6CSLA boJtctGa CO tUSVC6 CJJ6 1.tSL. 6C01J 1C6A

ru rsxa bo2C-ozrq SL Wr Tt11J611 btS flWC6q 6CS(6 SJJ P6TII6L6IJC2

f11L 0116 C CPG bi6,'%SL bSLTCA O fllJ)flC6 C6 C526 0 fl' L62tflJJbCJoU

LTCSI1J LG8flW6 oq c0UA6LCTpIJICX ?6A611 A6SL2 StC6I C6 sug o ojq

55 LGVC LTCSTU

Page 11: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

2A6L2 (raeoY uq W6 (raeY66 orvq (ra.o eqCoL,? tZJCLoqftccoU)' uq 62b6ctrJA LOU (rso)

(flJ2ffCC622flT CC6WbC pA C6 LW1IJ6L2 O CJJG C6IJO COZJt6L6IJC CO 9LLIJG

uq CJJ6 6]T7J-EL6IJCp occnbsCtou O CJJG gnpz (oLq (rao)Y C6

t1LIt86OLpJ6 646XJC2 Oh Cl'S COUCTUGIJC (CJJS C6LWU2 L6tflWT CO bA LGb6LSCTOU2

CP6 9bbLGctCtOU m2 L6AGL26 uq L6cnflbCtou qSJ9AGqP6C1T2G oJJJ6L69C6L 2C6LJtZJ 9bbL6CC6q CO26 CO CJJS orq bLtCA pA D6C6WP6Z rass PflC

COfflJCLt6 U 6L]A raso ApCJJ jsq CO 9 26LtOfl2 L6C6?2tOU SUqIJ tu rasr

L6CflLU CO C6 bLG-rn6L oq bq-CAy CJJG flUC6q C6C62 9uq 26A6LJ OCP6L

COUCLCCtOLJ6LA UJOU6C6LA bOITCA pJ PLTCTU (111 b9LC L6tJ6CCPJ CJJS 62L6 CO

bOJtCt62 jpe 2rTp2GdnGuC poolu (rnpcp rn rnozrqrnrq6) 62 sugeq pA A6LA

rnL' CJJ6A rn6LG rnrnrrrru I'-' IÔIÔ CO tOIJOL CP6 L6d(tt2TC6 CtJ5C 1flOLI6CLX

VICJJO$IJJ CPG WOIJ6CLA 6flCPOLTCt6 rnBuCSq Wm6q]9C6 £62ITWbCTOLI C6L CP6

CJJ6 1à502 JJJ626 t22fl62 L6 qracnasq tflLCPGL psrorn

CJJIJ q6flC1oU rnPrCP Co$Tq 6xbrwiu CJJ6 beL2tC6ticG O pJJ rw6wbJOAm6IJC rh

bnLCJJatU bornGL bBLTCA CO 6C6LWU6 O6L IffCJOIJ uq (5) tOLC6 OCJJGL

62 CO1JCUtTG tOL 26A6LJCA AsL2t LGAOJA62 9LOtUJq: (j) porn CO W69211L6

TL1tIGXTpIJtCA' W22TA6 UJGWbrOAJIJGUC rnonq L6211TC JJ16 rnprcp

6WCOU CO W6JC6 PLTCt2P 6XbOLC2 cowb6CTCtIs CP6 t6C6 ot qornurnq rnwe

qojjwi uq OCJJ6L CIYLL6UCTS2 wq CPC L6flWbCtOU rnonjq LGdfltLG COLJ2T6LP6

K6A1J621 WLflIII6IJC rna CJJC 2C6LTTIJ rna OA6LI rnsq L6JCt4t6 CO CP6

bOTTCT62 P9C rnGL6 6qobCsq CO BCCTU

C6UC6L6 hOC Ohs L62flWbCTOIJ C CPG OTq b9LTCA b6L 26 PflC Oh CJJS qeJ9CouLA

O CJ16 obbo2tCtou JiOrn6A6r.' ACp CP6 bLtuctb9J GXC6bCtOIJ O 1(6AU6' rn2

pA T9POL (prYC hOC C6 tTtJ FPOL b9LCA) uq pA Uqf12CLA LOflb2' HO2C

-a-

Page 12: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

J6 oq 6XCJJLJ6 UqLq

q6b9Lcnt.6 ow ojq couAGLltptJtlA 10 26H6WP6T. TÔ3T L't6L6 26Lt0fl2 ot

E1CP6UL66IJ Jg3) OL6 swq9m6uJ' JJOiGA6L' OL a1eL]ru2 n1W6

r6 cbrcr I46i' oiJc azocjc wijceç (crwco22 IJg

RxJda6 q6 Uc62 go ojq wç u UU6LABRG biirA CJJG J6Lrr'J r" ra ug jpe L6J6c4Gq ojq qzu orJoqo 1p6

jyrzu ip beqoq p6 ot EUrq c6q 2b6cnJtAe cJca

£6COU2LJ1C6 orq 6XCJJIJ6 2uqLg JJO66L OLIJX x A6L2

D6bL6tOU rh ioo (see 6CtOU 3 p6301.t) vqpseuce o6COIJOJJJA itt c bi.cui b6 A6L 'rr p6 peprnru ot ij.rs

ecjJeg pA rosa vtc' Prt £ecee2Tou r'J rae w 12JJ

ccoqxJ o wo me82rTL6a torJomrxJ Laanmbcrou' b1Txcp2TzJ boz6x

sxbtLG W A69L-60q (wrrr6z ug sTcp6juq J5 jôci)

occi-n J ia corq tA6L (ExboI couLor) m qn6 co

or.' Ic6wrA6IA' Jtcrbcrou pA 2b6crrTor.2 gp L62nmb1ozr iticeiA

6LiiJ q6pf.' W6L6PA 6Jt1J boc6ucrJ nuqp cr.i212 (ErcJJeuL66u' ras)

(2wp uq wrcp' boo) uq J6 2flCc622t11J COLM6L21011 O 2JJOL4-6Lm O JOUR-

£GJ6C6 1P6 pepror. O nLqU16ZJJ2' pctiqu £1JJ WOU61r.A boricA

6C6LJ q6p916 OCS126 OLJ 6JJ6L pe tr"'r bcp io r.G2nmbtou

LJIJOt1IJC1U £6eflWb1O0 ou vbr.ti 58'

'rq nufl JJ6 Wr.IC6 pq bn2peq 2c6r.JTU CJ026 9Q P6t0L6 OttTCTTJA

6XCPIJ6 L66 69U a66qA bbLecøcrou oir.q bA jji6 tIJJOLflt6

6xbGcc6q pA pr.2JJ 9nJJor.rr62 (ErcpeuL66u roos) pA 6LJA ros

nuL'trrJruJJ622 O JJ6 flhJ6 2l62 O torrom ii tiJJ tour.A botcA' e

COOLqL76q 1hJ6WtoU r.6?COr.tOU ot JJ6 ojq 2ugr.q' uq p6

-ro

-

Page 13: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

2JC66 tthou L6dn622(1LC62 L6 A6U u u bbGuqx JJJG e WtJ8PJ6 oU

nIJq6LjX1IJ 2rwrr9I.rcr wuq qBLGIJC62 JJ6 GJJVAOL ot woueA anbb1t6a

2flCP qtcç coIrg2ç bLoitqe?

6XCJJIJ6 L1G2 tT2CJ boJtctG2 IJGLS2 L62 LWq6 pgJzJc9$ uq L6]

nuqwweura GBCJJ £eanwbtou eb2oq6: woue? 2rthb1162b 1r JGA6J2

cqoii cowb9L6a 4JJ6 P6JJWItOL o rr'-' W9CLO6COIJOWTC

111 COULTU rniq9weLJ9J2

q6bL622ou 9CLO?2 pe ojq

I6WTU (rg EtCp6I.L66 (roY uo po uwqu qjou uqexcpue cuqwiq corr9ba6q pr1 ccoqu co Jq6q1JiIJ iiq 2cpziwL

ojq pA b6L2CGu o pjw,ce o bAmGu1 2nLbrrra6 jp oq

uT.uITa2 O J6 9m611 JJJGA 6X6L6 q6JrouLA bLe22r1L6 OU JJ6 Z62L O IJG

ul6wpG,2b uq jJ (UJIJLfIJ622 O JJ6 flhJc6q 2162 iiq ELLJC6 O 1J16

J6qsL2pb pA P661UOU1C boA6L 6 t1TflL6 O COOb6LCtOU 6A66U jc€A

(126 O O L626LA6 CITLL6UCTG2 (26LrrIi iiq qoj) ot

bop]ew2 Ta.3 EtCp6L1L66U' T5 J6WtU T8oY rucjicru p612 LI6TI-(UOL'W JJ6 ojq 6XCPVU6 2wJqwLq 2(T6L6 tLOW WIJJIPGL Ot

JJ6 PT1(TOU ot to.ru excpgu6

L626LA62 pA £62LtCTLJ dIG (126 O oq O C6VdIGJ GiJJC2 GIJq pA uconzucGb1dT tro2) btJJt6 9 dp6 291116 111116 j 92O 91d6WbC6q dO GCOUOU1t6 ou oq

?d9PTJ1dA L9bq 9uq 9ncowc prxi ot b9Aweu 9q1n2dw6ud eprrrru

69dRL62 O flJ6 C19221C91 O)q suqxq (excpu6 LGdG Glig bLICG JGA6T

JJJ6 oq 6XC9UG GU dO LG2dOL6 dpG 9AOL9PG

-

Page 14: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

COUA6LtPTTtCA t2 COUCLU6q gripi F9L

CouA6i4TptItCA OCC47LL6 9J6L JJ6 t9L OA6AGL U bL9cltcG ogqacsieaeq 69LTt6L 11 Cp6 C9C6 O LTtU 1J36 OLm9] CnCb6UCTOU ot

boa-L6enmbtou betoq r cv spe wbcc w L61wbitou ou

b6zoq 96L L6C$1mbtOU tOL PJT19TU JJJG L6920UOI cpooeru JJC jou5&L

ueg eçee uq ro-roo pirz9ru' rwbrAru eutttc9uiJA 1ougGL

p60L6 JJ6 £6r6A9u I9L O 9t6L i6enmbtoiJ 18Q0-18SO P1 JJ6 C926 Ocomb9Lteou 91r 9L6 LsboL4eq 0A61 50-A69x b6xoq LnuutxJP .ow

£62rTwbqOu ot cou6LtptJtcA O CGL]!J 1$T2 OA6L To A691.2 jo q

1'i' pA COU1L924 tU6L&1 6M66U J6 29L O f.oLq Lb9L 0116 91J JJ6

2c9c6? LGenwbqou coojc b19c6 9rwoe j Aie 96L JJ6 eJ o JJ6 crrr911 tWboL19111 qt66uC6 uAo]I62 4J6 jeu:p O W6 pJAoJAGq 111 JJ6 flU6cowb9LtuP bLtc6 T6A6TC P6tOL6 911g 96L 41J626 SO 6A611C v4 JJ6 291116 CWG

JJ6 L69] 6XC91J6 £96 666U enebGuetou 911g L62rrwbou C9IJ p6 W692á7L6 pA

ojq coIJAsLq-prrrlA t9C x€enmeq 9 JJ6 bz6t8L b9rpA H6UC6 JJG CJJ9XJ6 ru

li,0UGI9LA 6xb9ueou 9uq O46LLmJ6IJ4 PO.ZOAt1111 111 9qgfloIf pi pOJ C9262

9 99LJ ug coejA tx 9120 rorA 6XC6bcIOU9r 6A6T2 o

C8262 JJ6 0LTtIJ9T 2t12b6LJ21Ou O ojg cOu46rrprrrcA OCCflLL6 9C JJ6 OflC26

JJ3GLG 9L6 20256 OpA]0r52 21Wt19Lflt62 P1 JJ62G 6Xb6Lt6LIC62 111 POIJ

9LtT6 011 Ji6 C9(S262 911q COIJ26d176UC62 O cp £6C(ITJJ 40 o]q

twbc 011 CPG 6C0110WA P0l E9CP C025b9142o11 bLonq6a 9 qt6L6IJ4

£Genmbltou abou pe cq6q ooqe 26COL LJJTJ6 r.69J 9ctAtA epoe cp

O 69C 5OA6IJiUI6LJt 6X6LLJ8J 9J9UCGC Trri'.c iJJG bocA 1wb9c1 O

borrcr6e 9uq 1J6L62C L962 6JJ (52 9p0151 JJ6 922OC9I6q tTU9UCt9I p6p9tOL

911q pe COWbGCtTA6U6?2 O JJ6 O 6COUOWTGC tsboii L62r11J1b1tO1J tT2C91

bLtC6 TG612 91J 6XCJJ91JG L96C bLo&qs2 UOLW9OU oil WOIJ69LA bOITCT62

-15

-

Page 15: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

bLrcG2 GJJq AJ10J626J6 bT.tCG2 JJ9AG 66LI tr26q O W6JC6 f16?6 crciircrouW662ffL6 O fIG OA6L9TT bT.1C6 J6A6J 66LJ6L A0LJC C0U211UJ6L

(r88c) tOT. fIG flU6 2c9462 9uq gqmouq (ra') t° BL8pJ i r 16AJJO ff26 qGJOL2 tOT. f1626 conIb6LT2ou2 ucjnq& OtttCGL

18Q080 b6T.ogOfJ JIT21OLrC6I b6L0q2 yccOLqrIfft' AG STG R6LLA2 ttflL62 tOT. fI6 6ULGcombT2ou r TwboLl.6u1 o bLo.a%qe couacsuc Liq COwbT.GJJGIJBtAG q616 OLVrCP°P pta 6apc6a 9L6 obeu i0 J6ttw6 CLtfCtaW' tOT. fIG 6JCG O18e0-e8 A6 6T.6 o ou1A 01.56 b1rprapGq IJ6m6rA' pGLLA (1888)cconçe istp 16?1 f1L66 ?6T.t62 tOT. 18ô-I858 HOA6AGL' oi pe betogbGLoq BA COUfT.624 C0U26L6PJG couLo6T.aA 2flT.LOflU2 fIG fl2 urouJ(ucoufLo.AeLar6r' £q-fI E6tU6tU (ra5) bT.oAqu ttLG2 tOT. fIG 6IIctT.6

urouwr pscow cconui unmpea tOT. BLr6ru 6T.6

0U6 26A 6 tflLCJJGT. tUCLGW26 LJ fIG b,14C6 J6A67 r L6IJ (62 A6JJ 62 tIJ fIG

bT.tcGa1&L6 pj o CPGtL bLeA6L I6A6T BA COUL82 fIG 6U o ojq t9I.L6T6rA6TA couataGuIA fJLOfl fIG J6G I8QO reo' ° p 188

AZJ6226 L6grr6]- €qncqou v' fIG qowaqc bLtcG T6AGT prcp CO1JfIJITG

qonpjq flLU ff6 6L pofI c6262 JJJG ug o fIG fl CIAtJ !6L

6U ff6 fl1J6q 26fG2 LI fJ6 C626 O a6L]tU13 DOWGrC bL1c62 6fwoe

q6J6OL ot 6 UI9)OL CL9qLI b6LU6Lb L6U tU ff6 C626 O fiG fl qorJ9L

CP6LC J 6J20 T.GbOT.ça OUJG2fC tI4 q6r6zoL215 OGfi6L AtcJf ff6 crtU BLttU

TGAGI tOT. ff6 flLJ6 262 GIIq tj bGLcGxw ot fIG bL6-oLJq I'6L 01.16 J616T

anbbTA ra wbbLoxTm6JA cOXf26U W 9T.OflhJ 500 o fIG bLG-crArr t9L

OJOA6 pA 6 COIJL6CfOIJ 6uq fJGU pA 6 b6Loq qflLu mpcp ff6 IDOIJ6A

1T. GxbGua1ou flLJ fIG A6L (T.6tr6cru tutJ64touGLA wouel6LA tru6ucG)

6bbLObT.t66 b6Loqa V 2rWt]r. b91Gw ]2 02GLA6 pofI COffIUT.TG2' AtfI

CP6L1 J LGbOL2 ff6 b6fI O ff6 A0 COfflJLt621 woueA arrbbTtGa 0A6T. fIG

Wou6A LrC62 6L5 EXCP6IJ6 g6462

ot L62flWb11ou OU fIG P'r1rp 6COLfOUIA

P1 ff6 T66 18502 P rou G6U 61.1 twboLi6u P1 622622tU fIG twb6c

-13

-

Page 16: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

L6t1J26tL1 ?O(1LC6 0 oat q2p 26L162b6Loq' p6A 9bb69z io 9qob6g 9 w6qJogooA 21WtJ9L £0 JJ9 fl26 pAcowb6Ctu c9cn]9flo1J2 6 (126 p6 9JC6 9uq otgo 26r.r62 OL W Iro-oOW6t (Ja8a) uq jjce uq ozqoxJ () p€ bLoiq6q ueet' nbq6qb 911gJJJ6 UC 2 J6 OL 1119] CWITW -K116 26C O WOL6 LGCGUcJA'

T?JPLGG qGL6XJ 2GLT6 O n2 C}1E SLO BTTVPI6 tOt b6LoqJ6A6J bzcui PtPGL jJ9U CJ6 q2p COflh16LbVL* 9 Le2tImbOUcwjctqou ripi itp01629r6 bLTc6 uqxe$ coucnqq pc peJJWU 1J pA CO! L92 L6q1fl8U 91J Cp9L (rae)' tOt 2tffltT9L

4J6 A69L P6t0L6 £62t1WbCtO1J' bttcea TIJ 1JJ6 n"rcq 21962 A6t6 Q b6LC61J1 ro(rr2pJ 911 69Lrr6L ata sjao btoqnceq pA p6LLA) 62ffl96 JJ 1J T89c9Jca]wcou t'0I 21JC9IJ RUC6LI9TIJIt62 ottrcer. (roe')

JJtJJ6L 9V L1 JT3I? O(1L 621tW9C62 Uqc916 J1W L6T911A6 bLtcs2 P

P1 41J6 flup6q 2C9S62- -0116 0 CJJG p6rJt6L61W2- - P1 J5 ?9? OA6L Ø beLcGz.n

WITCJJ WOL6 6U6L976 Co1JflTc 41J911 JJ6 fl2 crAti f.9L uq W6 CMF3 6J9COt

Lfl9X1 96L £G2tlWbZtOU P1 TÔ52 P p6611 P1 otjq M9L 0116 £92 9

JJ9AG G61J CJ026JA 9JU6 P1 Jpe bt6C]26 COWb6ttA6 bo2Tiou O

L9qLr btut o jtqq s62) uq o bttce J6A6T2 9bb69L o

T8T O J9 291 JTI6 CJJ91J6 J-' Cth q6J91OL rh P1t8111 (9 WOL

p6 q1D6 o £6anwbou rp rpet tOL68h conIfl6tbsL2 JJ16 betog ;tow

0 JJO26 6J26tJJ6L6 20 t t? U6C6229LA 0 COWb9L6 OW62flC bttcea

EX6LU9T CO11Jb61q6U62? g6b6IJg2 (thOU bLTc62 TU 1J16 JJOW6 C0(hIJr.A

Twb9c4 ot 911 9bbLoxpn9cerA C0U2I91J UIOLI6A anbbj)v

boLtoLw9ucC O £69] 9C P1 PLTtI.1 itJJCp L6$7C6 q6tj-9q0u9LA

L6tT6C2 pocji £JJ6 potçet b6LOcj PGtOL6 L62n111b1T011 9uq JJ6 W0L6 9IJGWTC

bttce 16A61 OAGL 80 b6LC61J 9poIe a bLs-i8L 9Jfl6 IJJT

T85' 91J 9 W0L6 L9(19J toqrscou 2flp26dn61JJA pA JO1tG46t1 C6

bLtC6 PPPT 0JJObt6 pA 9 2STt1 q6C]116 u bt1c 666U

q6W9IJq 0L CIAtTt9LJ ooq uq 26LJtC62 T0026 1B01J649LA boj-c?v JJ1t2

ucq £6J6CqXJ JJ6 69?J ot bLtcC C0HlL0J2 911 0A6LJ19hJ 0

- -

Page 17: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

T2bLoppJA p6çleL 9fl6 O J6 2T6 JJ qTcRLpUCG bt2 coU2g6LpJA

cpe crTr cpe CJJ8LJ6 L6TTA6 0 JJ6 bI3u6L cosTuLA' APTCJJ ta

TI3 I'q Tô5O A82 J8L6L CJJ1J COWbØLWpJG L126 LJ cJJG flLqc6q 9I6?c4J6 6WLTt61. H6uCB p€ cjJe wpaornce r' }JG bqci JA6J P666I'COflLJLA i atutttcvxwrA WJ6I oi axju pw cpe qojvz c

z, £p6 qowsec bLtce IGAGT T6TtAG o o bSLJGLo bc fl26 tJ bLJC6 I'qTC9IJ JL6L OA6LJflVTOU212HT2 162(fJ2 rqr CJC f.J6 crctqCoil LG a6u 0 CJJ6 Ab6

ji6 qojj TI' 1JJ6 J6 rooa

I'CL66 JJ6 0TflTOLT o a6LJ1u T1J2c GXCJLJ6 L6 OJJGL fJJBIJ

oq 6CCU6 acuqwiq Tu L6J11.AeJA qebteceq LG wA pe

qe ErxJrrA' JJG q6C2OU pA ET.W1C6' woi cowbGCtlox. O OJ JJ6

TI'C0W6 tLOW pog IJth6q W u€eq O tWbLO66 11J6 PTIJC6 01.1 U16LCJJI'T26

£6qfTC4OU TI' TTI' Oi6TI' 262 porqu JJ16 L62flJItI' TT TI' 1J61

RLTTJJ 6xboL16L u wuA bx O f416 TOp6 I SJ?O eq O W aTuTrczJ1

qau1bi6q Lq6 COLJI'6C4OI'2 JJ6L6pA L6flCI' cowb6iqAs 6q6 o

2I6LJTI' 1soLrq fL OI'6 (1L JJ6 BTLq2p 6cOuomA TI' W8I'A Aa i

140I'-bLTCG twcoa w9A pOLbtGA6L A6 6XC6L6 JJG OA6L.iWJfl9T0U O

IJO b8L4TCnI9LTA T16rqojji. L6191TA6 ° aSLJpJ TI' T82 P CJJC CJJG T6L6I'C6 (121J 0a q9OJJL TI' ]5 pop t' p20JR1.6 £6L1112 I'q C0flJbL6q 1o p6 Jrr€ 0 JJ6

CJCnJqOIJa &uq 0 pJqC6 CJJ a6LflI' b% 0A6LAtf6 U2 JJ6 flTUCTqTU IqIJ bL1u6La OJJ6L JJI' JJ6 flI'6 2Te JJJ626

gqmouq (iosY L6IATLJ 01) zqe L81J6 O r6LI'cT.6 bLTC6 I'6X62 Uq

0A6LATT0L1 CJo?6T. 0 ]t b6Lc6u1 JJJTa ra ?TWITWL 0 TA6U pA

.TC$1IL ac oj saqwcG O CTh' 'PTT 0GL 6LT6 tuibiA u

fluJ6 2G2 9 CJJ6 c1w6 0 L6a(uJIbcTOLJ JJJ2 £6aS1JY pOm6AGL q6bGlJqa nbov

PT4TI' !'t6L6 pon bGLCGUC PtP6L cowbLeq o rn '' P26 TI' JJ6

- I? -

Page 18: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

6L6UC nug6LXIJ Ot1CCOW6 OCJJ OA6LLflh161JC2 £SIJ ptTq6l

oruig oL C6 wouX ocje ztrcp cowb9L9PT6 0A6L9JJ boJtcT62 piiç IipCJX

6boqee' W69(TL6 8 9 b6IC6UC96 ot c' .LP bTclnLe T t'TJ' CO JJWC

CP9EC 3 2JJOb2 O6LiJW6ZJC ?b6uqu L8A6Ufl62' wuq qepC t0L POCP

922OC9C6 ue€q Co 9CCL9C c9btC9J u OLc6L CO PuICCL62 CJJ6 b9LTCX

W9A S JWCJC o couquce ru cpe borrcA' SIJg CpG

T26 A6qe OL tOL6t1J6L2• (C€X L62(TWbCtOLJ bo?tCTA6 tUC6L6C £SCG

njjA cL6qrp]-6 92 CP6 SuCcbSc6g 6xcp9zJe se SbbLect9Ctou poaq

T11C6L62C LS62 2JJOtIq p6 r°' upsii CO2G o cowb6Ct1ox2 CpG cowwicweui

S226?2tU IIJSLJC6C I62 Oil CJJ6 L6CflZU CO oq BI4OL Co L62rzmbCtou 0DI62CC

CJ16 COUIW1CW6IJC CO L62J1UIbC1OIJ IIJCSLG2C SLG (126J(TT P'

qepc onjq Sbb6SL o p6 s bSLCTcnJSLTA twboLsuC trcsr CCOL u sepiC6L21 V 6SCJJ L62(IWbCTOU OCCflXL6 SC6L S CO2CJA 9L CJJ6 bsp o bnptc

2CptTtCA £6drrL6q CO UJStUCStU ' AtIJ 6XC9U6 L9C6 bSLTCA tx rouC6 SLJS]A22 E2CS] BLOtJSCA 1 TrJ6ft CO 6U6LSCG CJJ6 IJOWtUWJ

JJ16 pGpSArox o csj bojtc?. suq tUCGL62C L9C62 r2 sreo twboSuC toz

jacsj op-cA Jq 1UC6L62C FSC62

6XCJJSJJ6 LSC6 t'JJCp L026 pA OAGL b6Lc6uC P6C661J ra "i T52.

i'r 1c6nhsbCTOu coucqeq CSUC SbbLectSCTou ot C6

bSCp Ot 2C6LITU U CJJG 6SLTA Iâ5O pA COLJCLS2C' 2rurtrC9UCrA wor

cowb6CTCtAeus22 L621TJC6 IIIW6qSC67A bLto CO OL tthou LG2trwbCtOLr JJ16

StC6L 16 bS22S6 o cps K62rrwbCtou VCC O O 2tIJTtTCSUC CPSU62

CJJ6 I8O? CJJ6 fl qojs r.sqrrsrjA WOA6 CO tC2 ojq bSLtCXa bSLCTC(frSLrA

6LGLJC 2CL8C6t62 (126q CO SCJJT6A6 £62tflhJbCtOU 9L6 2OIL1 J CJJSLC 5

Jj16 twbScC Oil CPG bSCp2 o UOWLJSJ suq LeST 6XCSU6 L9C62 O CJJG

- re -

Page 19: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

r.rJc o bztAe ecoz pu o6u,weu ruznweurJ9jpe opaer.Aeq 2bLeq pec'teeu cpe o wX L6y6CI JJG L646L

r.62 r.oe u epwr.bjX roso* uq ipe eteLrcA o pe cou wctoirnr.) woueør.)

sdrqeuc fy r.ea (r.jr.oq poug uq cowiuer.crj b9beL) ap apor.

(pujc pjj xiq coueore) wr.e r.ebor.eq' oeper. qrteLJri2 tr.ow

oeL ipe JIo-3o ber.oq LTTJJ poL- uq roz-c.1I rI.r16r.e r.e?

qtwtiirjJu OLJ6b GAGU wj6L cpe 62nhIthCtou VC o T82

JLe suoi-ip o ber.benwie br.ewpiin ozj ijpcjc ro rperc

nuc6Lrucre2 euq ueeq or. cbtj tutrOMa weoc9s6q Mp L6tJTflbOLI MetO

ber.oq Lerm1biqou occnr.zeq (poLgo ug oc,cot rao?) VbbLGZJCTAb p6

trTru aeqjX r.enwbitoi uer.6q uq couiurru o jj or. jou

cAeq OA6 pe RLTt2P couoy r.e oier. ps sur.e tTOBiI bezoq

LtCt2JJ COXJ2OJ At6Jq9 CL66UP9CJC piç6L64 r.e ou bztAie ecor. pouq

pe r8eo-80 ber.oq Aerq2 ou fl L66UpBcJc Lflr.o8q pouq r.e cowbr.eq MtP

t JJOM e bcp ot qowec uq or.eu Tucer.e21 r.62 oAer.

uowpr etr reer oer. :Tw6

ross LOM ru r.eJ orribnc couipueq Mrp bqce qerJou iceb

pjuceq prrqeç2' p€ qep Lo pi t eeiscrjr) nucpueq tcer.

ecouow? exb8uqeq oer. Cpe r6 joa p? coIur.8 qebe

qrttq fl oA6r.LJuJexJ qepi 6Jr aegjA w r.qo o cr

oA6LIJw€u qs-rr.u or.jqt ou jjie beji o qsp tjer. pe tr.

qrir.u pe e obboeq o jwoac o ber.ceu ot ci tor. pe pr.crp

qT6q fy eqer. oAGUfl1J6u beuqu bewjceq so bezcez.u ot cir

ecre o peae uq 6LIC6 qie 22OC6 r.26 p5 oner.uiieu qepc1

qerce gnr.u ipe ML uq pwuceq prrqe peor.e vq ter. ]jJonJ cpe

-

Page 20: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

91Jq (roai)

C145 to'- LTCIU tC6L ozjq LL oue gCr peote 6LG GA6U PtP6L

n cir, reo rsoa' cowbeq CO B LBCTO O O6L 12 beceuç O

A6LBJJ ScoiJoWC BCCTATCA EXbOLC? uq puboxC A66 CJJBLI 10 becsi-rç op,rCBriJ 1wbjA1u 2WBflGL tore ox cpuea ri-i CJJ6 6XCJJBU6 £BCB CO Bt6CC

b6rcGuC86 ot jpe nIJTC6q 2CBC68 a jeea gebeuqeuC nbou CLB CJJBIJ

bL0b6LCA GLOW BLOB BiJ CJJ6 CST3JGiJC BCCO(W W6B247L6 B B

CPBLC 2 2PO2 C6 P6PtOL Ot W6LCPBIJcITG Gxb0LC2 Bug twb0LC2 .'16C

EXCGLUBT BBTBUC6 Bug I6T C4h

pe 1ô50 toL CJ16 rctp ecouowA Atil pG gcneg trnCpe.' pejo

C6XJCLBT pujc u C6 fluCeq 2CBC6 Jjie coueedrreucee o woueiA botcA oiez

p6C-I166u CJJ6 CO 6boge2 WBAb p.r bBIC' zeJ6cC CJJ6 926UC6 o B

LGrBCTAGIA BB?2tA6 oue bnrneg P6OL6 uq BC6 C6 fl L6tzUJbCtOU JpTaB. beLA1 JJJ626 BCCtA6 bOTtCt6? PS CJJG T0 BLG U COUCLBC Co pe

AJJGU C6 JL6UCJJ L6COL6 8og COIJAGLCTPTITCA OL CJJ6 LBiJC 6JOA 1C2 bce-

AGLG BJ2o uoeqeq CO geeuq CJJG excpBu6-LBC6 be bCrcrfrJA C6 15Q

uqrrce CBbTCBJ- ri-tr CO LrCBru YtCGL L6flhJthCtoIf pp T'JC'-C LB62

C6 E66LBJ 66LA6 cougrrccu B!! sxbBuetouBLA W0U6CBLA boltcA rubBC CO

fl 6qGLBJ Buq CJJ6 P'l' 0t Ez.rBuq BC C6 CtWG O £6tflUbCtOIJ 1tCP

CJJ6 nui'tuqpJ ot IDBI4(GC BuCrcrbBCrou2' a zej coobeLBCtou peC1teeu CJJ6

CTO6 CO CJJ6 ChUG O L62tflUbCtOU LBLC O Cp12 TJJCLGB2G b6e,iwBpA L6tJ6CC

VtC6L tBJITLI8 P.-' CJJ6 GBLTA rao UJJOLC £BC62 L26 BBIU I!! CJ16 wg-rabcjtcA t J2CLBC6q pA CPG Lt?G I'S 'TCP :JJe nurceq 2CBC6

-18

-

Page 21: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

- -

bna anxezq ebai ni noLiqt.cialb 9ulb osSr hew vam eniloeb 9±1 brra

s±1 d bez3ae nOlLIiegmoD 1axrieXe n1aaetnE

erf lo riolaaeiqaioo 91202 oz bel 1zw 9i±i o eano e±i aeaz rliod nI

a al etsdT .o1zat zroqm1 edi ni h1a a ,a1 a rfilw bna oliai toqxe

8V81 hlinu aaz2 beilnU e±1 ru oizzx ioqxe e±1 i-il f9VO391 1ziibsi

neewiea .au1qxue sbari ea1brizdoiem e±1 o nolanzqxe 'bzea a iii a11uaai $1IW9ff1O2 \d aI1a aulquua 9±1 bITh ,b9219V9f 21 Th9ffl9VO1fl 21±1 0881 bna 8V81

bna 1a29V91 S±1 fl99Wied nOLifiI3OaBS e±1 eI.1ifW .O lo li19319q (rS±t 2291

ethi •aineVe OW S±1 sialooaaa O: n1Jqme 1 eLzw b1o oi rrlUi9I 9±1

3112011039 9±1 oi beiaIe '1eLi1 euom aaw auIqlsJa ebaii srb iii 9(111091)

.a0881 '<1ise brus aO81 9iaI esfi o nOlansqx9

ilollsb inaofl1n1a nl al nlailia ui 9orlaIzd ebwri ealbnsdoiem 9dT

cf ieaIIO slew eiiolIsb 929Sf i fSW 9Kb elo9a .boiisq OE-OIQI 9± iuoxfsioufi

e2erfT .asoIvlsa ui ebali ru aulqiua a bus emooru.j ri9qolq o awofl bmwrii

2'nisiixa ru1rrs,Izew dezedi izw erb xe3s hinzofl1rr1a hle?t ewofl 91200(11

noiiqinuaei asiai2 beiinU effi o 9283 9Kb ni aA .nolii2oq Isrrieixe 11aevo

na woI .sonslad sbzsi sub ui no siolxsieb a bsialooaaa aIaeqqa

ebsri ealbnadoisun sd:i ,iQ1 bris 0Ql (799w39d M3 o irreo-19q \1 lo earsva

neewied ineoxeg e iuoda bssxsva (19th bnz tQ1 iii insoxsq V oi saox iioileb

sub bo1isq alub xevo noxia ion 2BW brraunsb 3.1i29m0b aA .r1 bus

xsvewoH .'i1xzq b1o sib n1xoiaei oi bsizlsx ed oi iIeI11 axaeqqa snilosb

a as sonalad ebaxi 9Kb 111 aoiisxo1xei9b inioq sairieoxeq \1 sib

oi xasqqs ion asob Q1 oi VQI bn.s Q1 oi OSQ1 neewied 1O o esirieoxeq

oiiafnsxb a eisxens3 oi icmonoos sib no sxb exaI '(hinelolI?u2 a 9th

(QQ1) neexnsdo1a0

Page 22: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

JJJ6 GL6 p1 4JJ6 zbp cowe pow E6tU?6tU (r&Y .LPT6JC6 9CCOflU o cpra cjJU6

pip sbnpjtc.zJGq uqGbeIIq6uce ri' iar vii eszrea e abc€q iocojqpi uq i'tia (rofl)) twbjA couqeLp?t woz 9V6WtC bGLtor.mwcecoisqspje qonpc ocv wccorn o cv beroq (Euer.Inu (rar) uqrse USWL ipe Gzsq o pe crrr ir HoAeGLb vr rucr.- obu io

IIA erwa' qscp nee iiqcu TLTtTCU1 T46 I1 orrba P-

P6r0 + b6LC6U I" Tô5T JJOAGA6L I LO6 qLm8crcrrA O OA6L jj b6Lc6u

pcp Lobosq r' cj'i e5 yçe .oijq iB oue nuswbToAm6ui it

JJA6 £6JcrA6JA £GJp1J6 nIJGIIIbJOAJDBUc toz beLoq

9rcPorp 2JO!L bc6 ipu r p6 6LJA

?2OCp16 rJ.r £62nmbqoLr iu ra-a onçbn L6COA6i6

c t6TT pA aow 2 b6Lc6u1 qne o JJ6 61J6L91 2T4JC6 9IJ TIDbCC O 4p6 Lor

T 113 16A61 (11Wt1 ]5 JJJBL6 UOW61 L6C622t0U 111 Ia5e' JJ6U L69i

ber.ceu p6joi t 1Ô13 T6J6F D6bT16 OID6 L6COASLAb L6W11J6 P6JO

bL6ctbtCoaa t.TI ti.' cA ThSI LT onz±ric pq tiiL 0A6T.

eiwsq O p94s £t6U pA pon ro b6Lc6u ql1LiJ IL ojjoieq pA

JJJG 6Xb6Lt61JC6 O rcr' q 6L6U5 K1 CI4L t

Heuce' Le2rnubltou oojc bic6 o Gcouowtc 6Xbi12toU wq bLo2b6zt

62W6 A6L6 L6 O \t J\ beLC6uI b6L WIJfllfl PGC6GU 18Q2 uq 1880

roJ bGLog o r.opn onithn: oip qp cat totru c

O fJ16 L1 JJOM€A6L OU CJJ6 cG22qou O poa p6 6cozJowA

fl2 L6J C1B' £6bOL6q P' CPL e' ecAeq itiA tT qrnu woa

bo11c1621 uo 6xb6ugrrL6 CJJTIJ 0LJ62

Lcpei pu CLOt p6 itq r'261t- - ipiotrp GxbeuqnL6 eqncps

1119111 1wb9c: Wn2 JJ96 C0W6 4:;JLo7JJ OAGLLflU6L11 borrcr6 o Gtj96 q€wwiq

1 6xbI9tutu fl91J 6COIJOWTG blOpJGWa U CJ36 T6 1850 P6

q66LoL9qou 111 6COUOWTC bLoeb6LtA j pe orq bttA i'te cxnctwTiA

- 50-

Page 23: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

iu b6Ltor.uiuc6 ru cp TôO JOU6bioqq oujA OA6L pe26 bGLog2 i e uo bo22tpJG io COIJ26L

C6 rrccequ beLoq (r?rb j bcu) V2 9A6L6 o zozpcoiJeq6LpX PtP6L cpu cp6 bLeon2 qcqs (rar3-sc' o b6Lc6uI) uqCDL bez wx.n.,nw bcezii u xwaiiw b6Loq (ra5-)

KP6? 6 ] (J95) 6tW6 pc JJG LOLI4JJ O LTTJS LTraoo

C0WbL6Pi6 16A612 o (1u6IJth]-OXzJJ61J:' GL6 r' 1â08 Lq

bctcnr pe juc1ewae u L6bJcswGuc Lwco' uq o 1USTttCTGU

62W662 O JJG L6Tt/1G WbOLçUC6 o aiibbjA

LT4T2PI 6IJGmTC oiçp b6LtOLWIJCG O fIG Io5O2 D6P6 JJU62 011

LJJGLG 2 911 6XCGLJtA6 ItC6LCflL6 OU fIG C9(T62 913q cou2GdnGncGa o,

IA' VLGG D6m91q 9Ltq 2nDbrA

2rIJrtrc9LrcIA P6TO b046IJt9T' ' pr obc pc s uo znr.u

q bL6A6u cnLL6IJ 9CCOITU twbLoA6w6uc fsGL6p) onbn

cpoeu b9LtcA JCT61J4JA OA6LA9Jff6 O 6U0LC6 cozULgc oiiiA boJtcte2

"T°' It PLTTUI £6117L11 9? 9 borrcA UU12 pG P6C26 f36

co wouX arzbbX zq U2C9T BOItCA A6LG L6W9LJC9] uqj 9CL pop

btecequ 9u9r?2r p9 xJqcGq pw JJ6 aIJq6LJA1J bojtcts z.uip eb€cc

o gzjA r GxbLec9qou ot fiG twb9cc ot L6rnnbctou boTTcTGa 01.7 PLT49tU JJ16

b9LtA t92 W9q6 911q LOW TQ OU 96L fIG b9LtX Ir9 9CPTGA6cJ t2 C6L71L9]

pocp ww6q96A si p6 p6u fIG qecaou o LG2flWG 9 fiG bL6-m9L

6XbT9TUT1J C6 b9fJ o L69] onbn ziq n11ewbroAm6u ni r' f6 raoJJ16 OTG O wOUec9L?. bocX TU'GL6 L86 911q fiG 6XCGU6 L86 U

qrri t'- Iôo P6 0'6C 0t fi CG D6bL622tOIJ'

rumseqr9GrA PGtOL6 911q 9:6L jOrjq flu6wbIO)uuGu LG9CpGq qonpj

e r\ bGLC6IJC tOL fIG L6 0 fIG 6C86 8 J66J CoU2q6L8pX PtP6L fJ9L1

O fiG T9P01 oLC6' D6bt16 9 npaGdaexJ tTI' I9 UGIt.GL PGTOA

- -

Page 24: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

ETCJJGVL66U (]) Bug BAOtlTIJ Bug ETCP6VL66U (rt)' Bug £66L6UC62 lp6AT.OL GBLTTGL IOLJC (T2J JJ12 woq9J OU PT2OLtCBT BB 266 SAOfl1lit BugPtP rer O (ru6wbroAmeuBug q6ZJ162 B 6CJJG TV L6B] tWb0Lc bLTcGa B2 B JCGA O JJ6DW2B6 Bug }fOL26btOO (]) JJU2 B AGBJC twbvcc GLOW 1JJ6 LGbJBC6WGuC LBZt0QJJIG wO2 LBCGUI Bewb1 o cg21unap arthbrA r.om qewuq q66r.wuBLua pA

r nbuq arobru rruqer. JJG BaanuJbctOu £1BZ CBbVCTIA CBU pe

BJBIJC62 ug JJ6L6tOL6 bLoqrrcz q6wBug JJJG aJJOL-WIJ B £6B6 3trbbjA C(TLAG

bLtc6-orrbn1 abBc6 L6tT6C1TU JJ6 BC JJB JOt6L bLTCG2 LBT2G £GBJ wousA

qewBuq-BL6Be atthbrA woge L6B6 gGwBuq a goutBLq aiobtu tu

aIIbb1A tBCOZ2 JJ16 w61pOqOrOrCBJbOpJl o gebBaL6 a p6 BL6B6t'' btcajt 6A66 £OJ6 O B L6B16 g6WBuJ BIJ

x-1uq6LAu tBCIOL2 pepruq 6AOp1OU o LGBJ onbn gnLu 4pG bGLoq'

IJJT 26CqOU 47262 2U1CflLBJ A6COL B1TOL6L622tOU2 O qeuX J6

(raoY MBIJ6A2 (ra8Y Bug LoBqp6LA (re))

PB2 BJ20 P66U 1P TTc6B16 (vJqcLo (rae8Y gcpqaou

TLU6LIJBITOUBT WBL62 6CJULJ bLoqncicA Bug q6cJpqu ponr.2 o oic1

ro8Y jp £OT6 O 04JJ6L arrbbjA tBCOL2 211CJ1 B2 L17CtfLBJ CJJBU62 pJ

1JJ6 £6bJBCGW6uJ £BTO B L6JBqA6rA 0't'° L0J6 OA6T. JJ6 b€og (Ercp6xJL66zJ

aioujA CBJJ6U6 pA 26AGLBT BITpOL2 uq JJ6 LGCGUC coua€uarra Arst tA

£BtO Ot 47u6WbT0?U1J6u P6V6tt2 O B62) JJ36TL BbbLOBcp B2 U iI1LLJ'

LB6 O rflJGWbJOAUIGul CBfl26 pA JJG TUCLGB2G CJJ6 £6brBc6w6u LBTO (4JJ6

p6U]BWtU ugKocJJru (iao BtJ ia8) tWo 6WbPB2T6 P6 Lt26 r CJJG UB4rfLBJ

BL6B6 g6wBuq (JpowBa roseY JPT2 AT6& pOI6.I6J J1B2 66U CJJBJJ6V6 pA

flU6WbJOAW6IJ JJ6 TuC6TJ'BL b6zOq JJB2 BCLp$76g 10

JJJ6 C0V26U2118 AT6 OV JJJJ Bug bG2t26u Ltt2P

BL6B6 q6W9-uq cpncq O BU OA6T.ABJ476q 6XCJJBV6 XBC6 uq PTP Tu6L62

-

Page 25: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

q2CflLp6UC62J10CJC2 12 UOx.llJ9G O 0116 U CJJG G2CtW9CtOU 20 CJJGA L6tJ6CC 911 6A6L686

9L66C6 qewwuq 9U CO 9L66CG 2flbb1A JJJ6 2C9U6x. q6.9COu2 o poipSôM0L6 bL6C186JA CJJ6A 6L6 CJJ6 1WbJ7126 L62bOU262 CO 6 (flJTC 20CJC CO

x.Gbox.CGq 6C CJJG Gug O CJJG 9bb6IJqX Gxb16tutu CJJ6 weCpoqoo)vJ6A672' bL62fltD9pJA x.6recCru CJJG JOil boiiex. Ot W6 C62C W L62tTTC2 9L6CJJB 62flW6C6 COGttICISIJC pR UOC 2TIJTtTC6IJC C COIIAGIJCTOLJ6I

2C9tO1J6LA JpG 6XC6bflOU 92 CJJG C68 OL TUtI6CIOU PGCAGGU 1ô10-3O btJJGL6C62C? ezJ6x.9rrA 1JC9C6 CP6C x.oICp 111 OflCb(IC 6U IUtT9CIOU L'tGLGbx.tce I6AGT tGLG pOçp uO26Ct0u6r.A' 911q A6LG UOC c0UC6LwC6q JJJ6

30 i.iq 1880-38) COLJttx.m CJJ8C CJJG rorCpw O IGAGI Ot OflCbUC 911q O CJ16

2becr6q 6ccGbCGq DtcJcsA-JnhJeL C62 oer. co 2912b16 bGLoq2 (rro-58W6 2C8C1?1CWI 922111IJbC101J? L6dITL6q ox. ?flCP 9 L6L622tOU CO 6 L6JT-

T62 O CJJG x.OAC T1 CJJG JO6LtCJJ O L69] C1I uq TC 6220C6CG

CJJG IarO-1a30 bGLOq'5 qGLpGq tLOW 9 .6CCOL 6(rCOL6L6a2t01J tucjtrqru cto

911 6A6L66 9LG89C6 qswuq uq 9L66C6 2(Ibb1A q2CrrLp61Jc6 U LC9U OAGL

CP9LC . 2OI2 CJ16 62CW9C6 LGabouae2 ° O(ICbtIC 6J1q C6 bx.1cs T66 Co

tx.ow TôT030b 6JCJiOl1J5 P6 IITUIA 011 CJJG LG2flTC2 tax. LTC91U58

G2Ct6C6 2CLITCCRL6T AV82 PCP CJJ6 flIJTCGq 2C9C62 U-°" 18Q0-80 6XJ PLIC9IU

6tt6CC2 011 L661 OflCbaC ]q6UC16q 62 C6IJ62 111 98L686C6 217bb1A MG

92 C9U62 9LG9C6 qGW6IJq' bJJtJ6 CJJO2G tCp bex.w6UeuC

p621C6JJA 2OCJ2 FJ1Cp 9A6 9 CGUIbOLWLA pDb9cC Oil LG9J OtTCbflC 9L6

JJ16 bb6UqX 6?CL62 911g q2C(1226B CJJ6 2C9C12C1C61 W6CJJOqOOA

C1w6-26L162 46zr6pJ62' 92 6XC6LJ6 CO CJJG bLG2GUC C926 pA p6AotmJ1 (ma).

OP (1a8a) tox. Cembox.9LA LOul bGX.W9116UC 2JJOCJC2 CO 9 b91L ot

JJ72 WOq6J CWLJ pG 62CW6C6 nu8 bx.oc6qnx.6 bx.oboa6q pA P6LJC9L 9LJq

622flWG CO LGCflLU CO b0C6UCt6J

CJJ6JJgG2 1J 9L69C6 qGWwUq ]1J CJJ6 TOUR Lull' O1tG6L' 9L689C6 etthb1A 12

111 CJJ6 2JJOLC LflIJ CO GXbIOTC CJ16 bLottC obbox.CnUICIG2 OLcj6q pA

- 53 -

Page 26: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

neeq :O COO6 ci's ot ° p o r rr ?mbTG2bLoqnc6q 6?6UtJJA 2tWtJL L62t1J4 JJ16 CtLC A62U CLT6LTOU t'30Dttt6LGIJ uibT6a ancp 8 1JJ6 6zr rso o J39 b6Loq Jo]O-8

ru raze' bLe8nmpA Ler6czru 86C O PTJJ

JJJ6 q6cOwbo2nou J2O JL6 U6tA6 L6G q6WZJqbEit9TJA u Leabou26 O JJG 6COLJ O £611TW 10 1J16 bLB-Lt ojq bitAtprcp conjq L6tJGC 1J16 L624LTCtA6 OA6LLflflGUl borrcree wbo2eg'

O6L t2 f4JG 26LT62 ot UG9tA9 L66 qwuq GLOW rio-5r

TtCIJ LOJG LJ GXbJtIJtLJ aflp26dff6l.fl £t26 T' (ruewbJoAmGzJl JJ16

CO46L6 ocweq AT11J 81J6 flU6WbJ0A1J16U4 IUflLUC6 yc o io bJA6q

6IJ1WtIJ wiig KOCJJTXJ pThO1JJ62 JJ JJ6 TL6 IJCL626 P'tt wug

IiBbTA qtanLpwJc6 jv iao cou eui itçp ?nbbJA-g6 OLt6 2ITCJJ JJG

roo bbeLa O £6tJ6C O COT.2 OJ t U6LA6 L6C6L6J6C1r1J JJ6 bL62rTx6 O LL-W6 SCOIJOWA JjJ6 LGCG82tOU O JJ6 6LJA

ii o' r r"q o p€ JL6JA qLpG1J p? qewuq brtT2rpr).

Jo-J3o J?O 2JJOAU U JJG CPL JJJ6 6Xb1J2tOU u oruthrrc qriru j.oLg

Jp6 rwbq bp for. qwuq ng IC6 2nbbTA pocjc pow

-q6WiJq-L616 -abbjA weozjc

o pe bLtcG IGA6I LG XJ CJ026 ccor.q MCP JJO6 bi6qcccq pA pe

cAcu oA6J w6qrnw-16Lwy JJJ66 L62bOU2G2 !U 4TCnT tp 62b6C

tYTT r' bLtcG (err O JJ626 LG2bOU62 J?O TUAOTA6 CGLtU 9WOflU O

coui boi anbbrx pocjc t? eoc€q p u onbn uq 'CJJ1J6 fpcp r 922CG LtTJJ t7L4JJ6L J 1JJ6 hLtce J6A67 A6WbOLLA pA e bqou qJ2 2JJOCJC oti4thtr1 L6l7LU2 O 6LO OA6

uq fJJ6 bEtc6 TT P' J6 poLL-Lnu 2 ZJJ6 qai7Lpuc6 O Orrithi7

q6tJoL0 y hO tt6 L616 q6w8uq g21I-rLpuc6 Lt62 pop onbn

- 5çt-

Page 27: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

2tWtT orniq rro- uq reo-rs TLqtctU

flOL6J622OIJ? l'j6LG L6LflU UP6Z °t g'ew€ 29U1b]6 b6zoqa

g CJJ6CJC WI JJ6 LOpfl2J622 O Cp6G £62tTJ12 1J16 46C40L

orrbn .1 6LJA IO 1P" P.' JJ6 qGCq6

L66 q6u19uq i w WOLG twboxuc tcoz ru sxbjpJpi 1JJ6 bip oj

JJ6 L697 6XCWJ6 £6 qn€ o L62fl bqow Lpra 6/qqeuc& 1peLJ ucgc6L6t6Ct1J PG twbc o 1P6 116L81 C'-tI wug bbL6ccou oorrbnç qae 40 9LG946 qwug r cjJs U6Wp.6 ?JJOCJC P.' ISQ bT(12TPTA

boGucrr roo vt.z ro J.r6zGtoLe pe iJr at t.rr rj

ro5r ra2' terra r'-' r" roses 6L I'pcp r' L6IHT1Ja cjoa o anbb1A

Orcbi qrrrjA Lsrnua co cps T6A6T qpjg p\ anbbrX bosutI p6t66L1

ij imboLI.u coiiipnru tcot. pi L6c622ro1Y

cpe inu coi p6puq rae p.' rwj orubai qrri.u og ML ou6 Jp6X

auq6LAru bo6upiJ VLs6 q6flIL1q COL2 16 62W6 O JJA6 6GU

comb€a cnj bip o onibrri i'tpp pa q-w€ oq6w9-uq qrp" ou ps o or,bn

cnj onibnc pow pa bcp cp6LetoLe E6bLG2eu tWbC* O L6ZG

62tW6 O JJ6 WOA6W6LJ ot allbb]X boeiwj OA6L D6ATT01.' 0[

apocjca JJJG bp pnbjeq pA L619 arthbA bLoAq6a gu

nuqezAru bp ot r.6J orubrr wb6q pA cpe eariuGg 9LG 2trTA

vu BTT/ zA ot uj-Au L6211 o cw]cflJ6

anbbjA jo bbeLe O JJA6 b6OLW6q 16TJ OA6Z JJ6 J5Oqswuq qarrLpuc6a ru ras. uq boapTAG

rera O 6XCIJ6 L62 uq tU6L62 £62 uq G1J6LI a1LTJ6 pt: 4p6

-

Page 28: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

2ornlrou2' o pa bLopTGw266 Aonmi- uq EtCP6L66U (]) OL 8 cfl2cn2]ou O bopje 2oLJ2b

L6?(tJ 82 66U otwq pA OJJ6L2 TOOJtI 9. jJ6 ojq 28IJ8L b6Loqoncbnç torroa 2nbbJA bol6u18J dnts C10261A 6AGIJ U Ji6 G8LTA 1a50?b6zoq jJJ6 L6217712 pGCOWG cou2q6L9pJA WOL6 CJ822tC8] U 1p6 261J26 JJ

3JJJ6IJ ojg ue ia excjrrqq tow p6 8LI8TA2I2 pA 6XØ1MU1J p6 jj•

6COLJOWA W6L fOg ML 0U6 CoWb8L6q O 1JJ6 6COJJOWA O JJ6 flU6 218462

oue o L6U2 L686L fLflJ6UC6

8 I6LA WTIJOL LOre OL 8L696 q6w8uq ii rwbrrcrou ot cir

L68J oni±nc O6L 11J6 rseO-80 b6LOq L6r6C2 CJJ9IJ63 U 8L686 8flbbJA

CI68LIA 266L1 ru c'c e' apoa r'° rr ot CJJS WOA6W6IJ18 r'J

qeewueq pA 9L68G 2ttbbTA 8CçOL2 JJJ12 UCI922TC8J L62ITT C9IJ pG

6212 psz bLTcG2 A6LE LGT9flA6rA r6xrprG obr T8LGTA

q211TLp8UC62 8L6 orniq O p8I6 OUJA 8 tT66T wbacc on oruthni 1i

tnJq6LrAru 62tW8162 O L68J 8Uq U0WTL181 CHB VL6916 qew8nJq

L9m61OLJC JJJ2 I118AbtGJJ L6tJ6C 4JJ6 28It8C1OLA U8411L6 Ot. 1JJ6

U68JA6 LGJ8flOUJJtb bLeqcieq pA cpe 8L686-q6wwUq-8L68ce-2nbbJA

bLTce L6bOIJ26 O 8L1 8L68I6 aabb1X apocj r bo2rcrAe L8JJGL JJ8IJ PG

Jç62flJ2 IT2tU JJ6 fl g849 (n.roi nGboLceq) 8L6 J622 28cr28COLA JJJ6

cpe uqr124Lr8J oLJg

6X6LLJ8J 9CCOL?' 82 JJ6 L6C62?tOU ot 1o5r L'rq6-2bL68q bpeuoweu8 u

JJOA6A6L rc t2 o qJ2eu8uJe ps pzb9c O OID621C bojjc1ea 9IJq

4JJ8U JJLOflJJ bLOpJ6ID? J86L U JJ6 qec8qe £JJ6 68LJA roo2

bl92 6J WOLG CJJLO(1JJ 1JJ6 W0U648LA COLJL8CtOU 8Uq L6C622J0U O CJJG G8LJA

ywbOLj8u 9COL rn 6XbJ8tLItU JJ6 b8cJJ o GC000WJC LOII1JJ T2 JWb8GC

JusbJJc8qou o 8U8TA2t2 T2 1J16 L62flWbJOU bojycA tt82 8U

JJG Cp6A 8L6 uo q6b6Uq6U OU flJG ?b6cttc cJwG beLJoq CPO26Uj

-5e

-

Page 29: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

EtCP6U660 (r2)w6poqoroA ou B WflC tgsx a o corruiea iboicaq u BAornnBuqJJ't t1JCL6B26 U UOWLJB] Lttqtct t ro oauq iru JJ6

bLTc6a ceuqeq qotu u ancp WUU6L cjie excpus £Bø

LGB20IJBPrA couauç ot tffls' BBUC6 1%6L6 orrot6q uq gowqc

erthbA IB2 cozizvcçq ow€p rwweqrBc6JA B46L £6 ug 6U J6t

T6A612' £GBI GXCBL1G LB62' Bug acwj- boJtcGa i pop C€ pe wouGA

CJJ6 BflJJOLfl62 B2 L6BL2 £JJ6 bGLtOLUIBIJC6 O JJ6 wou6A nbbjA bLTCG

6 OITIJq IIIOLG TWTIBLTtG2 JJBIJ GL6C62 JJ6 OA6LB o

L621 o pe toLJq uq cpe BpçA O JJ6 u6wBqOUBJ TUBUCTBI

ABB6 JJ6 GXCJJBIJG £B6 bGE JJJ6 TB6L ruor pe op u onb uqB1G O L62nwbqou PGtOL6 jJUq ug J6 WBCLOGCOUOUJTC bOJCT62 Bqob4Gq :o

6XBLUBT 6UtLO16U JJJG OLD16L UCJflq6 tBCOL2 2tICJJ 92 9IJuorrucu JJG

-u a1Lg6r62 Bqobeq pA pe wnpOLt62 oi 6LGUC62 pi cp6

£LG pBJ6 CO1J2pi6L6 JJ6 6L66 O !'tpCp JJ6 Of1COflI62 L66C6B ABL6A O bO22TpI6 L6B2OIJ2 tOL PT2 '' orncouj€ iu

pepi qqeA L6BL6 92 B 211CC622 uq PLr9TU2 LG2nmbqou B flrzLG 6bGLc6bcTou? o ps 2flCC6 ot cps o eb8oqe ,p LGermIbtou

2flCJJ B COWbBLt2OU o bcn1 TIJ4GLB2 A6 JJ€ n6LA 6I6UCcouA6LcppX 10 og o 21B62 tJ I8 uq o LflBJ U T5?

Jp bBbeL B2 oojcq B J9 JJT2OLtCB J9220152 I.OW JJ6 L62rlmWqOu o

A coucrnrou

outrflCBCtOU

9tGL £JJ6 Ct6tr MBL WBA JJBA6 pGGIJ CP6 tUCLGB2TJ tWb9C o UouipJB]

-

Page 30: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

6XCJJWIJg6 £916 aA26W r° t' q29LL9A' IJJ WO? COi7ULt62 rri

rroiJ 91J C6 AL9LJJtIJ OAGL L6b9L8CtoJ12 b9AluGiJç2• JJ16

6Xb6I4GUC6q p? W9U)L 6COUOW62 ri-' pe 691JA ipe q'9urvs o br.-I8Tct

6COUOWTC (1UC6L PJ craeq pA jJ6 96LUJ9J O JJ6 bt9L JJ6 L6C6?2T01J2

couowrc brsA6L tJJ26 L6I1LU OCC(ILL6 IW6 o couq6ip6 tOLJqrq6

bobexon i'tozjg 6UAT1OVW6LJ pA co1JCL2 93TtU Ff82 9 W9OL

bObt6L F4J6iJ fl L64(ILIJGq O JJ6 ojq 29uq9Lq' IJJCJJ L'i92 11IJCO1JtLJ 2wooprX

JJJ6 UGq 2962 9 L9brqJA 6UJ6LT1J pn U01 AGç qowp.J8U 6COUOWTC

wo TwboL9u q D1TIJ9U o qsJ6n oriçcowe2 o iJ16 o 6beoq62

OL J2 (12 i0 JJ COIJCII12TOU JJ9Z 6XGW9T t9CC0i2 b%6L6 JJG

JJ16 COUJptU91OU O 21E1J9L OA6L9JT boitcA 2IJc pn q6LGu b9cp2

b9Lrcs1r9LrA LOffl T85'

rqrc cic cpr r'-' rr bx.op9pJrcA 9 6coxJq9r.A cox

woLps-wq beor.m9uc& b ctijA ip L6?b6c O p6 ]5] L6C622TOLJ OflI

1flOU6WLA boltcA 911q 4JJ6 CJT0261J b9LTZA W9A JJ9A6 JJ9q 20UJ6 b9r. ri-

9 t6coA6LA 911q 9UOflJ€L qoz.ucrtr.u 9ug arIp2GdnGu( L6C0A6LA ti-I rose 1XPtT

onbni Lop btB2 906wrc LI J6 roo mri 9 L6C622T0U rar ojjot6q pA

pocp 6]] P6tOL6 uq WfflGq96JA 9J6L L62bTOU Ii- PL1TIJ1 pA COUL92

bLoabelA tOL JJ6 fluJ6 29c62 ATW £697 Oi74b(1 LOU 9 B LOptf2 £916

WB7IJ 6L6LJC6 9bb69L2 JJ16 T8O2 Bug 18\02 6L6 B bGL7oq O cou27qGLBp]6

i r rp L62b6c O fJJG p6pB4tOL O £697 9c7AA JJOm6I6L JJB1 p6

attcuiA ri-' pp ro uq BLorrng JJG 96 o L6WbqoWW0U619LA bo7cA tJ PL719TU 'TP 2JJOL-C6LW tU6L62 L962 Lt2T1J

JJ6 L6?nWbTOU bOJTCA BbbGBL2 O p9I6 C9ff26 J9L6L C9IJ62

L611IJb7OIJ 92 IJO A6LA 9L pow tC2 bEG-an?bsuaTou 97I16 JJ6 2W6

-58

-

Page 31: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

6 CJJS 1C6A2 O 4JJ6 217CC622 O 8 2TUTG EflL0bG8LJ CtTLL6IJCA

r8c1c o tuLu9ou8J coob6Ltou EL02bGLTCA' 8uq coob qoxf 8bbe8L 40

op i' 8qqotf £6anmbctou pe coe tjow

1622 twboLiuC C8U encp e ji6 ruJclGLTATU bp ot orbtri

J6 6LJçLA 81J Or]O1%tU COLJ2T26L1C WWCLO6COUOUJTC boJtcte3- -UI9A pe

W62286 9bb69L2 CO 6 CJJ9C CC2--9iJUOflUCtU 8uq 26CCU C6 b416a

JJ8C O62 CJJ2 LJ8J2T2 p8.A6 CO 29A 8pOflC CJJ6 b8Cp CO JJ16 p82c

bojtct62 o tu bBLcrcnr8L

P66U 8 (flJCC1OU O JJ6 IU2C9PTItCA O JJ6 2A2C6W IJ 6IJ6LWJ& £JOC JJ6

4JJ6 t9C6 O CJJG 01126C O CJJ6 CLG9C D6bL62t01J HO6A6L CJJT2 8bb68L2 CO

8CJ02? conuCLr6a 2r2rI CP6 ojq 6XC8LJ6 2C8IJcJ9Lq co]-J8b2sq U

6U6L8CTIJ qG2C8pTITTIJ CSbTC8] tIOI2 9uq tO2C6LtU 11C O COOb6I8CTOIJ

bopcA bJ8AGq 911 TWbOLC9IJC L0J6 tu nJq6LWUU C6 AT9PtrtCA O CJJ6 2A2C6W

b8LtCA wuq C6 bIlL2nTC (9rou itp p6 fluGg 2C8C62) o ojq poqru

9t16 O EL9UC6 CO LSCFILLJ CO CJJ6 oq 6XCJJ9U6 2C9U8I 9C tC2 bL6-TôTcP

GXCJJ8IJgG 2C8Uq8Iq 8C CJJ6tL bxs-rars b9LtCt6 111q66q cpG 2flp26df1611C

W8T1JC8tUT1J TO8TU 6XCp8LJG L8C62 811q W8UA flUItJJtIJ CO LGCJILIJ CO CJ36 ojq

-

Page 32: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

AT6 fl15TA6LatA BL6y (1a5o) u!çuq uq 'ji corq cuqLq' -'Q €t

' bb o-srpLoqp6IzA' 2M (raee) yLe16 nbbjA IU1eL PTTI'1 'ECOUOUITC

H0$126IC66bTIJ 267 0 ybbLoJ,,, 0LJCJ Jb6L 40 23c'Opoxqo' KTCPB6T uq BOCJCOt.t (raa?) ,1JJ16 oq uqzq e ooq

iig gBcpJJIJ', U36LCU C0UOU3TC 83' bb' Q3-e28EttGC 0 6I6 D6w15q sxJq VI6WC6 2nbbiA Dt2C$TLPUC62 pA

rcpzq' OTTAT6L iq DIJUA dnp(roo3)' rebrA 0 C0WW61H 015 JJJ6 D)dI13IC

bb e??-Q3DwU uq V L6Vl6 2(thbrA Dt217LPUC62',I UI6LTC13 COIi0U3G 6AT6L '

J1JCJJLq' DULA OP (Ta8a) ,,JpG D)UJJIrC Et6C2 0 VL66U OUC'13 D0flL rcpwOuq: o?qcJc }L62

iia (ra88) t.oqncçou uq obcv[ou %113c6 iq c0TTTG EC0U0U3)' ' bb io-ce61J6tt p3 CGIUtTLA Tj 6b]A o onz cLr4rc2 O17LU9 0P61119nItU' DU6T uq J'GAte KOCPTU (ra.18) ,,flu6wbToAm6u uq flu6wbToAmGu

' bb 1\8ot uewb0Am6u [15 IU6LL U,, 0fLU 0 04C C0UOUI),'

6IJ19flItIJ' DUI6T iiq r-r Kocptu (rooY ,I26LCPtU tOL I' EXbJU0U

fl15tA6LtA }L62a(6qpoLa) %4OL13 1 ZbGCp6 015 eoq qq cpLq: c9uJpzrqt0LJJC0WtIJ TI' LTW Xorni1' LLA EtCP6I'L6G15' IJg tjc2I'qq I'q E40TI0I' 0 JJ6 IIJ6LUt015S 4OU6cXA aA€w'

pAomnt' LIJTW gijq 8LLA ETCP6XJLG6U (ra2)' U3J16 2cprrcA 0 CJJ6 coqVIJJAt?'u (]çt) C0U0U3TG 0flLu JoJ ro: 8T3-58L6OU Lj0O2 IJq JJ6 024-p16COU-jfjoOq2 }jo: '9"IJ IwbaT26 K6b01.J6

Aonmt' .rwrw uq LA ETCJJ6UL66U (jt)' ,,MCL06C0I.J0WTC Vq]fl?1II6LJC flIJ6L

IWE b6' '117156' bb 330-32QAonwt' .LTW (Toa5)' ,i1P6 Ett6C 0 tJJ6 EKH 015 LcTCTbTU EC0U0tUT6',,

0TTC C0U0U3),' r' (E6PL176LA)' bb 38-ô5cIo OIJJ LoqrIc: 6poqoJoA uq 46zt Aq6UC6,, oii.u o4pgij 1Jq '1 C0L0U (ro8Y ,JJ.l6 ETwrou o }L6I

92oLqVJqCLO4' DH (rooY couotu): t'çu 'ouqou:

6GL6UC62

-30

-

Page 33: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

uc ciwtq uqoiu cptco: flutA62tCA cpcoL6qmu' jiou uq yuu cpic (ras5Y ont). juq pi

I4 A0LJC: c°r'pr nurAeL2rAjeqmu jcou iq viJx r (ro) TTC o 36

%' -y E1LTuc6lou: nruccou flUtAGJ2CA },L622Tsqwu rrou uq yxrnw 2CPL (rae3Y OL). o

uqoui -I� C8WPLtg6: cmpzqe nurA6L2rAE6tucGrub CH (y5) ou juos xbq'n q nbn o

EU6LWIJ 16 HLb6L ffot bb1316LTCU COUOU3TC%OL) 6q fO6LC JO6] 9uq 24UJ6A rree ro-ao yç6bxLueq rcp ]oua i.i 3p6 TuLbLTou °

-u btuLT T?.cOt.) 2coug 6L16 :i bLu\nuJwezEU6LuIUI aiiireA r (ra.rY J6 ECOUOWIC iwbcc o crAir

D°rq14 oxo.q couou1Tc r (Dcswpsi) bbETCP6IJL66U pLLA (ro8Y fluewbJoAm6uc r' i' pLru: D°I oL

oaou: KTfl6L ycqeuqc W1P1r2P6L2UçTOU L%bCTt CG1JI.G tOL ECOLJOUC Oj1cX KG2I..CJY

EtCP6L66U p9LLA 1Jq HOU (1o88) (6q2) flumbToTIIIu Tu

D6bL62tOIJ' ioia-roa M6 Aor.Ic: oxog flutA6LflA ,r..seaEtCJJ61J66i.1 LLA (rsp) 11corq6II j6GL2: JJJG cojq cuqq uq JJ6

cououik c9nJpLrq6: cJpLrq flttiALoqpeELA uq rç (6q) BLTTU 'U 36 IU6IYtOU9

EtCP6i66U r.iA (jy MJps corq xrqq TUC6 yjec ox.q Il W

'couotn'rc be bb c'O-ôeEWbIO1116U pi Iu6r.t9L piiu: owa Aqsuc6 jxow 6t oqej1,

Drw2qrs' CJO]? W uq 1,1tCP0T2 or.etoog (ro2) 11jrcr },ofl-cA uq

uq flutpiCbte JOLL62 uq VT9U Lb6ppsr. (r2) ' .oueçi.1. o e

CJJG L66UCJC 2tb6U2tou11 O0'.q COUOTC 1bI2 D6CGWP6Lcrowra cPre (r8Y wi.Jq EXCP6 D66LmtUTOU DnLTIJ

p cewpLrqe: cwpLrg6 flurA6L2r }622r8e-raoo i' flCpJ D por.qo uq EoLi.6 cbre (eq) oueci.TKEcJowrc nq BItTC ot WOIJ68LA f6]W6 CP' ru JJ6 nueq

crowrLr cpr.r6 (r) sCL66UPCIC 62cuvbqou uq 2rrA6 grjc: jpe

oxorq: pj rCp6rrCTLiJC1O2 vreijqe q ETCP6UL69U (1882) T DGCTTU

Page 34: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

CPTGOWT1C1J611' tic (1803) ' O CptcO fiUAGL2flA ot

CB1J1pLqG flLJtAGLflA L62?Wt4CJJ6TI ru (jgg) ot, oLtc rc cwpLrqe:

LL622uq LGuc) cpq: cwJJpLtqe flUA6LeA

Eur.A ruco p6 r�w iu trj KI.nn1wu uq TTIGL (6q2) 33wrrr6.' w9Lcna VT9U Tuq (ras) •,zrcrua sinw io cog uq

('iriAYjenw o oq: jw KU Lou 'EtouomTc on'Lu

MTIIGL' 49LCtT2 Jq 'J]Z 2RJJ6L8Uq () ,,2b6CflTtA6 ucrcrbrou2 oflL6fl O ECOUOWTC g66LCpuq avoc tTc p c wvq %t% %3C 1% t" A01.tC ou9rJ4CflJ9A' LG6LCJC g (j) otw6u ot ouq

CouomTc �-Th L7oLq: LroLg fllqA6L2flA L6224C6 C0

'

CH T"T" Jq IC ogjTu-2w6G (r88) cr

-vqepoiwcpGa' KCL (Joeep) 33 IUT.LL cououi) EdnTITPLTnW uT)%Ta

OL1 AL 5Uq 2€L xxxix' ' bb 2-28.wp'' KCL (meY 0AGLAfl6 P' 1ô2.SM 'ECOU0UTC

'l16Z bb Qct''-Q25

D6WIJ LYq 2nbbTA DT nLpXJC6',I 3LTcI3 COUOIUTCrrbbr' wco flCL6t8 gGrcprru (raa) cowm6i or) jp &UJ'WC EttGC2 o

O CTTtOLI }L622' 6LIC6TGAKtUqr6P6J61.' CB (raY jp joi.p pi bL%Tou T-TTh UUTA6L2flA

tTou j'ouqox: cWJJ9LrI'- LP j1Lp32 O OM3 U6?. hOT' IL P3

1(6AIJG2' FW (J2) (J)' ,,JJJ6 ECOUOWTC Cou26dneuce ot ' cprrr.cprrr',.

T' P6 Ht'-' couomic' 30' bb' 5-5i'HtT16' r"r (j)' ,,w6 coq uqq iJq Drro: r2J' ug vcrq

T880'u MPEG fOLJCU 9b6L cJ 30e8' Vcctrrrr' A' (r888)' uwuru ExcJrnu rc'. cr.r: E.Aq6uC6 tLOW JJ6

\TZOL1' ' ("pnJ6)' bb'VW€LTCIJ CtATT L'ix: Erw62 I1JJItCItOU2',4 oni.u o couotnc

oJqu' crTqr D' Jq JLiJJ( D' r't (lox?)' ,IJJJ6 ECOUOWtC C° O tJG

- :35 -

Page 35: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

UIGI.TCU i.PiUC BLruceou: BTUCCO. flUIAGL2TIA LI.622'flU6L' I' (iae')' 1P 3P3C1C ' 0CT iq j0T1C3 %T'aOL). o

cprco BL6)'IUHCnT uq jU nçou Wr0L)' (cprco: flUIA6L2IIA ot

wpeLJce' BC9L H' (iao) \4OUL1. O1TC TU I3G (uq

"Of1Ui OT C0UOWTC OL1 ' (2eb6wp6x)' bb'J11WP6LT91C6' H' (ra�)' IJJJ6 K62rnubtou VCC uq pe M0U6X 2cTbbIX',,

TUC6 P00' 5' wpiqge: CU,PLtq6 flLq'A6LaflA BL6a2'B" jonq iiq D'14' wcCroiceA (Gq?)' 336 ECOUOmTC %0L) Ot BLTP1

JJJOUJ L'1' (ra8r)' VLG6 D6WUq JJG fluj'C6q Kuqow rar8-2'11 p.r

BL62'J.GWIU B' (1a8o)' 3G DbLTou' cuJpLrqG: wI'L'

B'G1TW O ojq', 'ECOUOmTC onIi3'r j (cp)' bb' Qt-r'2T1JJ' f'uq 2I4P' B"L' (mao)' ,,0CJJ2C BL0C6 2MCPTU uq JJG

'COUOUI1' \' r' (E6purA) bb r-'ET'' O CO 14t0UT BoqC' TBea-Ta08'u Of1LU Ot 0C3Tif0W6L' CPrTIrn D' (1o8a)' JJ16 BL6WL ptr2n1J6 CCr6 c6cozJaq6L6g: 146It

HtuusboIt oijqiJ Jb6L 140' 5'cri BL: V CLT4Tdn6 O 146tCOWp iq MtP6II'u B'G2GL16 UJC 0ifO]'IJICIC' V'1' uq JJc6' 14' (m8c1)' 211b6112t0U i.rq EtUUCtL1 4J6

L' Of1L13 0 'ECOUOmTC T%0L)ifOJJ if' (ras)' ,,IWGL6? B'6 uq ELTC6 EXb6CCT0U2 DflLtU 1JJ6 CTAIT

6rq6IJGJq 9IJ 14TCP0I0U'ffCJrnLqOIJ' H'11' (roes)' COUOti3TC 6C0I6L1 TU LTTU m--m' ouqou:

vbbLocp,, EC0U01331C 1T' 5UJ L' XXXAII' bb' so-s'g6qmouq' 'i' (ros)' •JJ16 6LrnI. n ras V

AOl' I' bb' \-28'r62u6rr' r' (ra8) ,,ros2: JJJ6 s'TLq6u ot 2i6LJrxJ',, ECOUOtITC %JJ?$OLTK

cp L%' ro.rqou: w61pn6u'oJJr.q' ' (rao)' (sq') 3%6 O' U9tS o)u 0TCT6% 66U

bb'

LC61' noi-iaoo' '0flLU O EC0U0U31C %T0L1' XTA 140' (261u6wp6L)OttC1.' JbtI6UC6 H' (ro8?)' 1IUGLt0U IU P€ VJICL7 J0L6tU EXCPIJ6

'ECOUOWTC (nu6) bb' Q5-o'V LG2C 0 1JJ60L162 O EXCPU6 -if6 D66LWlUct0U',, \OLU Ot

OUC6L' FtL6UC6 Fl' (Ja8c)' El 11TU D0JL t'- p6 cLupgcIc og:

-31

-

Page 36: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

2JJpJoLJ DCfl•• D6bLcIU O (r2) OI4C CTcTC% O'

- 3\t -

Page 37: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

LsaJcou:

2J10CJC2 OU J6 CpU6 1Z1 OJ7çbfl (7) wgm p SGLO jjjra rWbrt6a 1JJ6

rr tr GL6UC6 tor.m' lp rwbrrea ipwi ipe cnwajvir.ae eci ot qewuq

JJA6 bezmu6IJ 6t6C j-rboLr pe 66r o bLtcGa) onbn T2 1'LtI6U

oil pe JG16r ot onbai q€wug 2P001C2 oujA A6 6wbozr.)L 6t6C (oip

jp6 p'watozjc rwbrr6a nbbjA pocjca pv ber.wuGLr GZ6C2

JJ6 WLtX yt.

uqebeuqeuc eibbj? wg gwuq pocic uq TTt LebLs?sJJ 6QW6LJC

,pezs A uq b LebLee1cz P6 JoLT1:JJw o oi7bn4 iq bLtc6a' uq

VbC =— (

6 q€niuq ziq anbbjX OCJC2 JJJeu ips moq6J pGcowGa:

r x pe W96 rth o cpu6 u onbnc uq cpue u bttce uq

O JJG 6T6U36UC2

I.1JJGLS JJ6 WW1I]C62 VT £6bL626U JJ6 twbn126 L6bOU6 UCOIJ O flJG epocjca

=

= + + + • • (3r)

tqeu

6drrT UtI6L O 2JJOCC fl2TU JJ6 J Ob6L94OL ra 4JJ C911

tUtTut6 WOAtIJ 9A6L6 L6bL626UCtOU o (ABcioL) o LTP6 x wq

COU6L V 2A26W JJ6L6 JJ6 LR6 woq6J CVLJ 6 L6bL6261flGq pA

yrth6uqx: JJJ6 JVucJJVLq-ptTVJJ wpogojo

-

Page 38: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

(v) ILl 6LW2 O 4JJ6

qowwuq 21J0C1C2 JJA6 OLJrA ewborr.) GtGC2 ou onibni jp 1wb1162 6dttOLl

JJJ6 IT 624tCT0U' MJJtCP flUtdtTGft 6U62 JJ6 WLX C 12 JJB

V 'Pt'q C0W62 LOW ?2flWTLJ f.JJ gwsuq uq 21Tbb1A 2OCJC2 L6 OLçpoo1J]

2TWbT6 ipcj 6IJ6 JJ6 1L19UC6 O JJ6 2110C1C2 q:Offr. 6J6UJ6U2 O 1JJ6 UIL1X C JJG o.pA.zo C926 cou2iq6L6q' JA0 LG

2JJOCJC2' LL11IJ 6 — OflL L6?L1CflOIJ? 9L6 L6dnL6q O q6]XJ6 4JJ6

£62IT9J2 JJG yT 6 Wfl21 G cL9U2OLW6q 11U0 qsmuq uq 2ulbb1A

JO COUA6L (yçP) U0 J6 woqGJ qjo6q pA (v) uq

O 6C tTIJJ JJ626 L62(122 L6 J26J6 6A uq 6b J62b6CC1A6JA

x62rqs'T2 O ]6L622tOU O J6q .A81fl62 o uq vb ou Cr1LJ6zu .AJfl62

f1IOLGL622OLr ]U ps C26 P61U cou2q6qb 6 12 COWbLe6q O 1J16

1'JJ6I6 6 L6bL626U2 JJ6 L621flJ2 JJ6 6dfl1oU2 1J JJ6 AOccoI.

= + + + += (I + 'BL') + +

= (I-(v))1= + + • + +

CO6tTCt6U2 JJ6 Gdrr1Ou 6COflI62

° 2TT JJ6 616W6L142 °t X flru O L6bL6261fl CJJG2G 62W6

AGCOL WflOL6L622tOL ECP 616W61JC o CU pG L6L6226 OU AJfl62

JJJ6 woq q€u6q pA 6drr1Ou2 (-) rq (y) CWJ pG 624rmGq 1T2TIJ

- 3e -

Page 39: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

3(flJ1bI01J p.i bbjeq flW6-26LT62 IOLJC

IwboLu o OflL bL0c6qnL6 1.6 moriq 1J06 cpc C2 12 W AGLA GU6LJ

CIcu0btreqru £JJ :JJG 2anmblou pC GLLOL? 9L6 12

L6bL626114t0IJ2 P(T1 COAGL? ATLc$TTTA 9]J qALJUJC IJrA3t2 H6UCGb JJU6

0t6A6L 1JJ12 12 A6LA 6L16LJ 122R6 AJJTCP T2 110 21)GCItTC O yg

qrt6L6uc L62na 2 lioiGq pA pucpq 9uq dnp (roo3) tL P6tL L6bIA

woqj L6 oq JJ 1101JS7U1E6UJ L6bL62GLJ41t0U2 C911 IAG

0t11 1JJ9 £JJ6 bLOC6qtfLG 1JC]ngG2 1JJ6 22(1Wb1011 f4J9 JJ6 GLLOL 46LW2 tU 4JJ6

rrbbr iJq gGCp]1J (Ia3) 111 C0IJ1W6U 011 J6 J1JCp9Lq-trp bbGL bo1114

JJJ6 riJCpLq-(jnp bLOCGqITL6 20 COW6 ILl 0L 801116 CLItCt2W

TU JJG OLqGL1J I'tJJTCJJ 12 CJJ6A6 pA CPOTG2ICI qGc0wbo2rqo1r

9LpJ746q o (A) 6tJ6L 9 OL p L6 8Lp116q 10 C0W62

JJ6 CIJ p6 ogeq 2RC13 1JJW ]J 1JJ6 6t6C2 £(PTCP conq P6

Low op6L moqeja Jp natr qscombo2flou 22flWG2 JJ J16 ALtJ6212 1tJJSLG orrx u8J-A212' 926 011 pJ1JcpLq 911q O'P (ro8oY rtt

L62LtCt0U 011 JJ6 C06ttTCI61J? 0 PT WLtX

L1UJ 6tt6CC 0 q6WLJq 2JJOCJC2 011 or,b(ii 2 6L0 TWbTIG2 211111)16 JIUGWL

orrbn iiq bLtcGe 12 6dJ7J o (x-B(r))..1 JJJG L62LtCt0LJ LJJ 1J16 T°'-q6u6q j06 LoW 6dfl10U (t) JJ pe rou unt twbc o 1J16 2J10CJC2

LJJT2 0A2 c t0 p6 flUtdfTGrA qerueq wuq J6 qsw9zJq ziq 2rTbbrA 2ocJC2 io

i3I c 0 (3?)

-

Page 40: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

L6b6CflAGTAA — + b + A uq b L6 4J.16 I 1JJUJ2 O onithrt uq BLTC62JJ6 COtUC6LtU L6L6tOU L6 LG2W2 tLOW L6L6?tOU O JJ6vx — + x(y) $J6L6 X 12 p6 ALJ6 p6I3 6q JJ36 tEOWJ6 £6boLlGq CO6ttCt6UC 6 JJ6 -]2]C2 tLOJiJ L6LG2TOU O JJ6 tOLWcu p€ cc6b16q wg 2 uq j beLc6IJ UTCWVC6 J64GJ L62b6CflnSJAo62: OUG uq iO 6LT2C2 XJflc6 IJJ LJ16 PThOJJ6t2 o 1TO1JLT1A

V ro o ELTCG8 -5fl-

V r° ot 0n1bn4 -•3c1#

6L6220U2corzJ6zrxJ

geqnj tLOW 0

-J. -T5.

ro o ,r4c6a -r -orFo o OrLbr -j"t -121

roro-ra3o r88o-ra38

DtCICG4 EflTI6L J6? ot 2coItouoLtcA

- 32 -

Page 41: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

riiio COU?OT r8eo-9o wrcperr (mes) ruucrr x rinrou jpjie' cou2o]2 uq br.twe pwuj rri Cbte uq tPsr (ros2) ..LPTG

]cpuqr26 exbox2 rwboLc wq GCfl E6t1J2'6t11 (iafl)' JPrJjULJC6 JpT ' t' uqczo bnprrc ucow 6xb6uqrnLee uq qepc ccpe]j (r8Y

(ro85YEXCJJ9UG CG e46Lrru-qorr8L Z6 OtttC6L (1o82)3 vuq cptL

flU6WbJOADJ6JJ E6TU2IGTIJ (r&sY .LprrueLboJ6g nau xow jøpje rBLTCG J6A6J iwbircr qGJsoL pow EGTU6PJ (j5) poie T8O-O

J4OW]iJT uq 6] CD 6TIJ6tIJ (iofl) (uowtuJ) z.iq 2

wou ?nbbJA W2 C9bt6 ug 6p6J (m82) J1PT6 j(IlK rIo-2o (r1uJ622 OJJ6LAT6 2916q)

raroo' WC9(1T (r828YIU6L6 L62 poq poUq j9Q- uq jj-rj iJq COIIJW6LCTBI b9bGL

(I2Y 26Lt62 fl-I9r.cpuq6 exboI4' puboL uq n Debr.wGu t COuJc6

ot cowwce (Ia2) 2GLTG A332-fl8E66LJ OA6LUffl6IJ £6A6U116' 6xb6uqJ7L6 qec iJq qep fl2 D6bL4W61U

(1a85)EXCJJØU6 i otrcx (ro82Y ru iq

oqou (ro92Y5LtC6 reA6r iwbrrcn CML 6jCOL tLOW 6LLA (re) rro-o rjce iq

MowpJJ uq L6] R6LLA (r888) jpj (uowrur) uq LP6

ipr T3 T8-8O LGq1Ju uq 2CP*L (ie3) irWOUGA nbbjA FIIP bOGI6q IDoUGA: J9-QQ tr6cwu uq 2cpr. (r&o)

fl D4 18e0-80 (nuj-62e Uqc96q)

Dg 2OnTC62

-

Page 42: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

90

0o

10

NO

190

190

sOO

ss0

90

TOO

'SO

NO

190

190

500

550

2020

100

120

500

530

300

TOO

120

500

= ioo)

11K NO1G)1 uq bLJCG2: J8J-3O

300

(!9QI = Too)

fl2 oijc)1 sug bL!GG2: T800—90

CP"4 F

Page 43: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

80

100

CJJLf S'

go

TOO

I TO

ISO

80

TOO

ITO

ISO

80

(JcLna fl = Too)

riic EXCPUG JfG2: JaTo-3o

40

go

to

go

I TO

90

150(AGLwI fig' !UQT = ioo)

112' XCUG icGa: io-o

Page 44: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

1810 1814 1819 lasS 1050

40

00 90

9o 90

100 100

ISO ISO

140 140

190 100

190 190(Ecuc oi ewi)

fliC M2CJ bOJ!C: 13T0-30

1000 1904 1909 I0S I99 fy90

10 .. . ..,. 10

12

So So

S2 S2

30 30

32(bcI.csuf OL er.41)

fl JGqGLJ M2CI bOITC: TOO

CJJ9'LC 3

Page 45: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

fl2 rou JJJfGLG2 B9cG2: io—o

CJ3Lf

-4

1810

11K 2Pc IufGLG2c JçfGa: IaTo—3o1819 .' . 18S9

-I \.ou ar.ou ouz0

.

1820-S

—1

0

I

S

I

2

9

fiT ['OIJ IIJcCLG2f Hucc2: 1810301990 1994 1999 19S T99 1990

cv: cowc3

I

2

9

9

S

3

I

2

9

9

a

Page 46: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

CP'4 2

—12

T0

-2

0

2

TO

12

SO

52

30

—4

—s

0

S

4

9

U

TO

Is

11K EXfGLUJ b02!c!oU: 1810—30

(bGLccuc o am)

112 EXGLUJ b rçrom T9O—9O

Page 47: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

CJJ9!L e

(bs1.c6uc9s L.fe)

r1 fluGmbjo)mGuç jç€: T3TO—30

(iaio = TOO)

flT j€gj vccrA!c?: ioio—o

Page 48: SIdffVI 0141)1510W - National Bureau of Economic ResearchSIdffVI 0141)1510W sia msi DMITF3O :UaOOHq 0MLHAMOD 3HT V81 UMA ?.1 UJOD 14ONMU$1 I5fI3iM .U obiofi micnsT irrnjoisH nthoW

ImbnJ2G JG2bOIJ2G2 jOL 2nbbj)

. 3 - 2 9 •9 p 10 ,U 13 14 12

ImbnJ2G IG2b0U2G2 OL LGfG DGWUq

CJJL h!

-3

—s

—I

2411fGq uq 2flbbfi DT24nLPUCGaI S 3 4 2 9 9 a io 11 15 13 14 12

-u iv

002

000

002

010

U i

-010

002

0•00

002

010

- 012

-0•010

0•000

00 10

0030

0030

0•040 - ----- - 1LfC6

-00 JO

0000

0•010

0050

0030

0010

0020