simplified source model for dcpp - pg&e
TRANSCRIPT
Hazard Sensitivity
Nick Gregor
DCPP SSC Workshop 3: March 25, 2014
Overview
• GMPEs
• SSC Models
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Tornado Plots
DCPP: GMPEs
• ASK (2014)
• BSSA (2014)
• CB (2014)
• CY (2014)
• ASB (2013)
• Vs30m=760m/s
• Default Z1 and Z25 values
• Ergodic Sigma
• Equally Weighted
DCPP: SSC
• Outward-vergent (Inward Dipping)
o OV [wt=0.4]
• Southwest-vergent (Main reverse faults dip NE)
o SW [wt=0.3]
• Northeast-vergent (Main reverse faults dip SW)
o NE [wt=0.3]
• Shoreline (2011)
Pacific Gas and Electric Company Figure
SI
HS
DCPP
OW
CS
HE
HW S
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LE
WH
NL
LC
ON
SH
FN
WA
WR
LV
BR
OF
LM
SS
BE
HS
SI
HA
HB
HN
HC
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Map projection and scale: WGS 84 / UTM Zone 10N,
Fault Model 2, Southwest VergentRupture Model SW-01
7-1
DCPP PRELIMINARY SSC MODEL HID
Figure Extent
0 6 12mi.
0 10 20
km
1:400,000
DCPP: SW-01 Fault
DCPP: Sensitivity Cases • Recurrence (Time Dependence) • Hosgri Fault Slip Rate • Characteristic Maximum Magnitude • Shoreline Fault Slip Rate • Hosgri Fault Dip • Tectonic SSC Models • Los Osos Fault Slip Rate • San Luis Bay (SLB) Fault Slip Rate • Other Faults Slip Rate (Oceano, Wilmar Avenue, . . . ) • Maximum Magnitude (GR Model) • San Andreas Fault • Regional Fault • WAACY • Background Seismicity Zone
DCPP: 5 Hz by Fault Sources
DCPP: 1 Hz by Fault Sources
DCPP: OV, 5 Hz, (10-4) Deaggregation
DCPP: Shoreline (2011), 5 Hz, (10-4) Deaggregation
DCPP: OV, 1 Hz, (10-4) Deaggregation
DCPP: Shoreline (2011), 1 Hz, (10-4) Deaggregation
DCPP: Fractile (OV, 1 Hz)
DCPP: Tectonic Models
• OV [0.40] • SW [0.30] • NE [0.30]
• Shoreline (2011)
DCPP: Tectonic Models
• OV [0.40] • SW [0.30] • NE [0.30]
• Shoreline (2011)
DCPP: Additional Faults
• San Andreas Fault • Regional Faults
DCPP: Additional Faults
• San Andreas Fault • Regional Faults
DCPP: Hosgri Slip Rate
• Base, Lower, Upper Slip Rates
DCPP: Hosgri Dip
• Base, SW, NE
DCPP: Hosgri Location
• Middle, West, East
DCPP: Shoreline Fault Slip Rate
• Base, Lower, Upper
DCPP: Los Osos Fault Slip Rate
• Base, Lower, Upper
DCPP: SLB Fault Slip Rate
• Base, Lower, Upper
DCPP: Other Faults Slip Rate
• Base, Lower, Upper
DCPP: Los Osos Slip Rate (NE)
• Base, Lower, Upper (Range of NE Model)
DCPP: SLB Slip Rate (SW)
• Base, Lower, Upper (Range of SW Model)
DCPP: Maximum Magnitude
• Max Mag (Base, Lower, Upper)
DCPP: Characteristic Maximum Magnitude
• Char Mag (Base, Lower, Upper)
DCPP: WAACY Model
• Btail=1.2, 0.5 (Wesnousky, 2008)
DCPP: Background
DCPP: Recurrence (Time Dependent)
DCPP: Tornado Plot Ratios
GM Ratio = GMupper/GM Poisson
GM Ratio = GMlower/GM Poisson
DCPP: Tornado 5 Hz (10-4)
DCPP: Tornado 1Hz (10-4)
DCPP: Tornado 5 Hz (10-5)
DCPP: Tornado 1Hz (10-5)