Singapore:Income-based Gross Domestic Product

International Workshop on Household Income, Consumption and Full Accounting of the Households Sector

Beijing, China26-28 March 2012

Overview

Conceptual Framework

GDI Compilation Methodology

-Data Collection & Compilation Strategy

-Sources & Methods

Reconciliation Processes

GDI Revision Policy

Agenda

Three Approaches to GDPo The Singapore Department of Statistics (DOS) compiles and

disseminates GDP estimates using all three approaches to GDP

Income-based GDPo Since 1998, DOS has compiled and published the income-based

GDP, GDP(I) on an annual basis, from reference year 1980 onwards

o GDP(P) as headline GDP - statistical discrepancy recorded on GDP(I)

Overview

OverviewApproach Frequency Start Period Timeliness Availability of

Constant-price series

GDP Quarterly Quarterly - Q1 1975Annual - 1960

(Advance)-Not later than 2 weeks after end of reference quarter

(Preliminary)-Not later than 8 weeks after end of reference quarter

Yes

GDE Quarterly Quarterly - Q1 1975Annual - 1960

Not later than 8 weeks after end of reference quarter

Yes

GDI Annual Annual - 1980 Not later than 8 weeks after end of reference year

No

System of National Accounts (SNA), 1993/2008o Consistent with SNA

Recent Conceptual Change/Methodological Improvementso Capitalisation of software expenditure

o Treatment of employee stock options as compensation of employees

o Allocation and estimation of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM)

Conceptual Framework

GDI Compilation FrameworkData Collection & Compilation Strategy

Business Register

AdministrativeRecords

Statistical Surveys

Up-to-datesurvey frame

Administrative Data

Data Management Policy

-Comprehensive data-Consistent with national accounts concepts-Less timely-Respondent burden-Detailed analysis constrained by sample size

-Comprehensive & detailed data -Less consistent with national accounts concepts-Generally more timely than surveys-Reduced cost to business-Good source of detailed analysis

GDP(I)

Adjustments &

Reconciliation

Business survey questionnaires consistent with national accounts concepts

Survey items on CoE include:(1) Wages & salaries (including bonus & allowances)(2) Employer's social contributions (i.e. Central Provident Fund)(3) Staff benefits (e.g. welfare, medical & housing benefits)(4) Expenses on share-based payment to employees (e.g. stock options)

CoE is largely compiled on the basis of annual business survey results, and cross-validated against administrative data for consistency & reliability

In the absence of benchmarked annual survey data, latest year’s estimates are extrapolated on the basis of quarterly/monthly administrative & survey data

GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Compensation of Employees (CoE)

GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Compensation of Employees (CoE)

Type of Data Timeliness Source Coverage Frequency

Survey Data Quarterly Data:About 2 months after end of reference quarter

Annual Data:About 1-1.5 years after end of reference year

Business surveys (e.g. Census of Manufacturing Activities, surveys of services)

Major industries (e.g. manufacturing, financial & insurance)

Quarterly

Annual

Administrative Data

Quarterly Data:About 1 monthafter end of reference quarter

Annual Data:About 1 yearafter end of reference year

E.g. Government finance statistics

Government ministries & departments

Monthly

E.g. Central Provident Fund (CPF) & work passes records

All industries Quarterly

E.g. Inland Revenue Authority

All industries Annual

Similar to CoE, GOS is compiled largely on the basis of business survey results, and cross-validated against administrative data

GOS is derived as a residual item:GOS = Value added (basic price)

- Compensation of employees- Other taxes less subsidies on production

In the absence of benchmarked annual survey data, latest year’s estimates are extrapolated on the basis of quarterly survey data.

GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Gross Operating Surplus (GOS)

GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Gross Operating Surplus (GOS)

Type of Data Timeliness Source Coverage Frequency

Survey Data Quarterly Data:About 2 months after end of reference quarter

Annual Data:About 1-1.5 years after end of reference year

Business surveys (e.g. Census of Manufacturing Activities, surveys of services)

Major industries (e.g. manufacturing, financial & insurance)

Annual

Quarterly

Administrative Data

Annual Data:About 1 yearafter end of reference year

E.g. Inland Revenue Authority

All industries Annual

Taxes less subsidies on production and on imports are compiled largely on the basis of monthly/quarterly administrative data, e.g. government finance statistics (GFS).

GDI Compilation FrameworkSources & Methods: Taxes less Subsidies on

Production and on Imports

Reconciliation Processes

Data reconciliation among three approaches to GDP (i.e. no statistical discrepancy is recorded) on the basis of updated input-output tables once every 5 years

Non-Benchmarked years

GDP(P)

GDP(E) GDP(I)

Statistical Discrepancy ≠ 0 Statistical Discrepancy ≠ 0

Statistical Discrepancy ≠ 0

DataConfrontatio

n

DataReconciliation

(IO tables)

GDP(P)

GDP(E) GDP(I)

Statistical Discrepancy = 0

Statistical Discrepancy = 0

Statistical Discrepancy = 0

Benchmarked year

Data confrontation among three approaches to GDP to narrow statistical discrepancy on an annual basis

GDI Revision Policy

Routine Revision Benchmarked RevisionFrequency of Release Every year Every 5 years

Purpose of Data Revision -Incorporate latest business survey results

-Incorporate updated business survey results for earlier years

-Incorporate benchmark data from updated IO tables

-Incorporate major methodological, conceptual, classification and data source improvements

Extent of Data Revisions Mainly for the most recent years Entire time series

Update of Reference Year No Yes

Thank YouThank You

Our Mission We provide Reliable, Relevant and

Timely Statistics to support Singapore's Social and Economic Development

Our VisionA National Statistical System of Quality, Integrity and Expertise