singapore property weekly issue 47

Issue 47 Copyright © 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

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CONTENTS p2 Singapore Property News This Week

p10 Predicting the 1Q2012 Dip

in the URA Private Property Price Index

p14 Resale Property Transactions

(March 28 – April 3)

Welcome to the 47th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly. Hope you like it! Mr. Propwise

FROM THE

EDITOR

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47

Singapore Property This Week

Page | 2 Back to Contents

Residential

Freehold Cavenagh Gardens on the

collective sale market

The site located along Cavenagh Road is

asking for $460 - 480 million or $1,708 -

$1,782 psf ppr based on a 2.1 gross plot ratio

(excluding balcony allowance) or $1,553 to

$1,620 psf ppr (including balcony allowance).

The 128,256-sq ft site is zoned residential

and has a 269,338 sq ft potential GFA, which

can be further expanded to 308,920 sq ft if it

can be amalgamated with adjoining state land

which would bring the total land area to

around 150,000 sq ft, and the development is

granted the Green Mark GFA incentive or

bonus balcony gross floor area. This would

also bring the price to $1,598 psf ppr

(excluding balcony allowance) or $1,394 to

$1,453 psf ppr (with balcony allowance) or

lower with the Green Mark GFA incentive.

The expected breakeven cost and sale price

of units of a new development is $1,784 -

1,848 psf and $2,308 - 2,400 psf respectively

with amalgamation and $1,962 - 2,040 psf

and $2,308 - 2,400 psf respectively without.

The site is expected to be popular since it

can potentially be developed into high-end

residences, serviced-apartments or SOHO

apartments. This is especially since the site

located next to the Istana and near Orchard

road and has a redevelopment potential of

350 1000-sq ft units.



The tender will close on May 3.

Far East sells 109 Hillsta units

109 units at 99-year leasehold 416-unit

Hillsta project located at Choa Chu Kang

Road/Phoenix Road has been sold, with 90%

of the buyers mainly Singaporeans mostly

already living in the vicinity. The project

comprises condominium apartments, Soho-

style apartments with a 3.6 metres higher-

than-usual floor-to-ceiling height and 20

strata townhouses. A one-bedroom condo

unit costs an average of $1,042 psf, a two-

bedroom unit $984 psf and a three-bedroom

unit $918 psf while Soho-style one-bedroom,

two-bedroom and three-bedroom units costs

an average of $1,198 psf, $1,106 psf and

$1,093 psf respectively. Townhouses have an

average cost of $907 psf.

Top bid for Pasir Ris condo site 19.3%

higher than next highest bid

At $472 psf ppr, the top bid paid by Elitist

Development for the 251,036 sq ft site

located at Elias Road/Pasir Ris Drive 3 is a

good 19.3% higher than the next bid. This

might be due to the site’s location,

neighbouring a landed housing estate and

near amenities like Elias Mall and Pasir Ris

Park, as well as the positive outlook in the

Outside Central Region market. The nine bids

the site attracted is an indication of

developers’ interest in the residential market.

Given the bid price, the expected sale price is

between $900 to $950 psf. Nevertheless, the

site is expected to face much competition

from upcoming projects yet to be launched as

well as upcoming projects from government

land sale (GLS) sites.



Two adjacent sites at Serangoon Rd up for

collective sale

The first site, Serangoon Mansion is asking

for $23 million or $1,039 psf ppr if there is no

development charge. Nine walk-up

apartments with unit sizes of 1,141 sq ft to

1,195 sq ft sit on the 6,327 sq ft plot. The

second site, which is adjacent to the first, is a

two-storey shophouse at 23 Race Course

Lane. It sits on 1,314 sq ft plot and is asking

for $4.78 million or $1,039 psf ppr if there is

no development charge. Both sites are

zoned “residential with commercial at first

storey" and have a 3.5 gross plot ratio. The

sites could be redeveloped into a mixed

development with shops on the first level and

30 700-sq ft residential units on higher levels.

The expected break-even price is around

$1,500 psf. Buyers can either tender for one

or both sites by May 10.

Two freehold GCBs sold for a total of

$91.6m

The first Good Class Bungalow (GCB), a two-

storey bungalow at Ridout Road over 20

years old with five bedrooms, a tennis court

and swimming pool is sold for $60.6 million or

$1,490 psf based on its 40,679 sq ft land

area. The plot could potentially be subdivided

for redevelopment into two GCBs.

The second, a bungalow sitting on a 20,001

sq ft land at Binjai Park was sold for $31

million, or $1,550 psf. The two-storey-plus

basement bungalow which won the

Greenmark Platinum Award has six

bedrooms, a gym, home theatre, steam

room, lift, and dehumidifiers in all rooms. The

GFA is about 14,300 sq ft.



Commercial

Making industrial space affordable

Some measures in place to ensure the

affordability of industrial space include JTC’s

innovative infrastructure projects which help

SMEs to reduce business costs and the up-

front provision of capital-intensive facilities.

The upcoming supply of industrial land was

also increased to 24 ha in H1 2012, some

with lower lease periods. The project

completion period for the sites sold under the

industrial GLS is also reduced from eight

years to between five to seven years. These

will help to increase the supply of industrial

space and keep rents low. The government

may also sell the remaining JTC factory

spaces which are mostly smaller flatted

factories to owners and occupiers instead of

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).

Hong Kong’s Chiu family sells 51 Parkway

Centre office units for $53.37m

The 51 strata-titled units located on the

second to ninth floors, and the thirteenth floor

of Parkway Centre, which has 68 years of

lease remaining, are sold to a company led

by Mr Kishore Buxani. The price of $53.375

million is equivalent to $1,043 psf on the total

area of 51,191 sq ft. The 51 units sold are all

leased out at $4 to $4.80 psf with a net yield

of 4.2%. These units make up 44% of the

116,950 sq ft total strata area in the 13-storey

building and 43% of the building’s total share

value. While the company may initiate an en

bloc sale of the entire building if other owners

are keen to do so, they intend to first

concentrate on increasing the value of the

entire building either directly or through the

Management Corporation Strata Title.



The building has a total of three retail units on

the first storey and 107 units on the remaining

storeys, with some on the higher levels

boasting seaviews, and has a large multi-

storey car park and the Parkway Parade mall

as its neighbour.

Oxley purchases McDonald’s Place for

$150 million

Freehold McDonald's Place at King Albert

Park located at Bukit Timah Road/ Clementi

Road near the future King Albert Park MRT

station has all its seven strata commercial

units sold for $150 million to Oxley Holdings.

The two-storey building on the 5,534.8 sq m

site zoned for commercial and residential use

has a plot ratio of 3. The price of $150 million

is equivalent to $2,918 psf of net lettable area

based on the current lettable area of 4,776 sq

m, or $1,207 psf ppr based on its 16,604 sq m

potential GFA and a $65.8 million

development charge.

60-year leasehold Aljunied industrial site

attracts 14 bids with $43.4 m top bid

The top bid of $43.4 million or $255.44 psf ppr

for the 0.63 ha industrial site located at Sims

Drive/ Aljunied Road came from Fragrance

Biz Space, beating out 13 other bidders. This

is despite the new conditions on strata sub-

division for industrial developments. However,

this is not unexpected given the plot’s location

in a mature estate and its relatively small size.

The site zoned Business 1 has a maximum

permissible gross plot ratio of 2.5. Its

expected breakeven price is around $400 psf

to $430 psf with an expected rental rate of

$2.80 - 3.50 psf.



Things to look out for at Changi City

As Singapore’s largest integrated business

park development sitting on a 4.7 ha land,

Changi City includes three-storey retail mall

Changi City Point, a 313-room hotel and a

business space tower, ONE@Changi City.

Changi City Point has a total net lettable area

of 207,000 sq ft with a 450-seater rooftop

arena for performances and other activities,

out of which 96% has been leased out.

ONE@Changi City has a total net lettable

floor area of 650,000 sq ft on nine levels,

315,000 sq ft of which has been leased by

Credit Suisse. The average rent is around

$4-5 psf.

UOL group to develop One KM

The upcoming three-storey-plus-basement

One KM currently being developed by UOL

group positioning itself as an edutainment

mall with enrichment schools and other

education-related trades since there are 20

local and international schools with a total

student population of 37,000 located in the

vicinity. There will be 170 to 200 shop units of

sizes 400 sq ft to 600 sq ft in the mall with a

210,000 sq ft net lettable area, out of which

20,000 sq ft has been leased to Cold

Storage. UOL will likely hold the retail units

for investment purposes and rent them out at

rates up to over $30 psf. The mall located

next to the upcoming Paya Lebar Central

Commercial Hub and near Paya Lebar MRT

station will have 530 car park lots. 244-unit

freehold Katong Regency, located above the

mall, is expected to offer 126 one-bedroom

or one-bedroom-plus-study units, 58 two-

bedroom or two-bedroom-plus-study units,

36 three-bedroom or three-bedroom-plus-

study units, 18 sky suites and 6 penthouses



at $1,500 - 1,600 psf at its launch.

Office rentals to fall by no higher than 15%

in 2012 (according to analysts)

The fall in office rents is expected to fall by a

maximum of 15% in 2012, much lower than

the 20-50% fall in 2009 financial crisis. The

average gross monthly rental value for Grade

A office space in the Raffles Place/New

Downtown area fell by 5.3% to $9.76 psf in

Q1 2012 from Q4 2011. The biggest fall is

from Grade B offices in the Beach Road

micro-market, which fell by 8.8% to $5.21 psf

in Q1 2012. The biggest fall in average

occupancy rates for Grade A offices is in the

Orchard Road area, from 91.8% in Q4 2011

to 84.4% in Q1 2012. The average occupancy

rate in Raffles Place/New Downtown fell from

88% in Q4 2011 to 87.2% in Q1 2012.

Nevertheless, the overall islandwide

occupancy rates is considered fairly stable

with major lease renewals and the decent

take-up in newly or soon-to-completed

projects.

Demand for office spaces has been on the

decline as a result of the Eurozone debt crisis

and slower growth in the Chinese and

Japanese economies, which has led to

corporate restructuring and a hold on

expansion. The impact has not been severe

so far, but rents are expected to fall given the

cautionary stance many will take in light of the

uncertain economy and the upcoming supply.

Industrial properties the best performing

property sector in the Q1 2012

The average capital values for prime freehold

factories on the ground floor and upper floor

space increased by 4.8% to $633 psf and

5.3% to $560 psf from Q4 2011 to Q1 2012.



Prime factory prices also increased slightly

higher than the 1.2% and 2.1% growth for

their respective ground and upper floor space

in the same period. One reason for this could

be the new conditions on subdividing GLS

sites. Growths in rents, however, have been

slowing; with a mere 0.5-0.8% increase from

Q4 2011 to Q1 2012 compared to the 2%

increase in Q4 2011. The average monthly

gross rents for prime factory space are $2.39

psf for ground floor space and $2.08 psf for

upper floor space, while the average monthly

gross rents for warehouses were $2.47 psf

and $2.04 psf for ground and upper floor

spaces respectively. The rents for business

parks fell by 1.5% to $3.90 psf in Q1 2012;

rents for high-specs space also fell, both a

result of a fall in demand and an upcoming

increase in supply. Nevertheless, demand for

industrial space is likely not to fall a lot, which

should result in industrial rent declines not

exceeding 3% for the year. Capital values are

also expected to remain fairly stable.

http://www.propwise.sg/secretsofsingaporepropertygurus/



Predicting the 1Q2012 Dip in the URA Private Property Price Index

By Getty Goh

URA released the 1Q2012 flash estimate for

the Private Property Price Index (PPPI) on 2

April 2012, which showed a moderate decline

for the index. Even though the drop was

marginal, it was significant as it represented

the first decline since the property market

rebounded strongly from the 2008 Global

Financial Crisis.

To the casual observer, the dip may come as

a surprise. After all, there were many media

reports on how strong new property sales

were in the first three months of 2012.



One of the local property portals even

reported that private homes transaction in

January 2012 was “a whopping 2,077 units

compared to just 670 in December 2011”.

Looking at such media reports, it would not

have been too unreasonable for many people

to go away with the impression that property

prices were still on the rise.

Trends in the Singapore property market

Those of you who have read my articles (see

blog by Mr. Propwise in Dec 2011) or

attended my weekly free preview would have

heard me share my bearish views since late

2011. Hence, this decline did not come as a

surprise. So how was I able to tell that the

market was at a tipping point? To me, the

answer lies in the statistical trends.

While my company relies on several

indicators to assess the Singapore property

market, I often use the Ascendant Assets

Indicator (AAI) to tell me how the overall

market is performing. The basic premises of

the AAI index are (1) a lead-lag relationship

exists between the stock and property market

and (2) we are able to tell how the economy

is performing by analysing the correlation

between the stock and property market.

To illustrate, let us look at Figure 1. The

correlation between stocks and properties is

observed to be high, i.e. when the AAI (the

blue line) is more than 50% (represented by

the dotted line). These phases of strong

correlation occur when both stock and

property prices are moving in tandem

upwards (during bullish economic conditions)

http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-2012-%E2%80%93-a-wrap-up/
















or downwards (during bearish economic

conditions).

Figure 1: Ascendant Assets Index (correct

as at 2011Q4)

Source: URA and Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd

Phases of weak correlation (blue line below

the dotted line) occur when stock prices

diverge from property prices. This happens

because stocks, which are more liquid, react

faster to changing market conditions. As a

result, yellow phases indicate that the

economy is turning point.

Deciphering the market trends

If you were to look at Figure 2, you will notice

that past yellow volatile zones (highlighted in

red) coincided with the decline of the URA

PPPI (pink line). Based on this recurring

trend, I was able to tell that economic

conditions were gradually becoming more

uncertain and that a decline in the URA PPPI

was just around the corner.



Figure 2: Volatile market conditions and

the drop in URA PPPI

Source: URA and Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd

As the saying goes, “knowledge is power. The

ability to find good deals and knowing when is

the most optimal time to buy or sell a property

does not happen by chance. Now that you are

aware that such market trends exist, hopefully

you would be able to use it and make a more

informed investment decision the next time

round.

By Getty Goh, Director of Ascendant Assets,

a real estate research and investment

consultancy firm.

http://www.ascendantassets.com/



http://www.moneymatters.sg/



Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Mar 28 – Apr 3

Postal

DistrictProject Name

Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

2 ICON 657 1,238,888 1,887 99

3 MERAPRIME 1,098 1,450,000 1,321 99

3 QUEENS 1,195 1,320,000 1,105 99

4 CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY 883 1,450,000 1,643 99

4 CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY 1,216 1,800,000 1,480 99

5 ONE-NORTH RESIDENCES 592 900,000 1,520 99

5 HERITAGE VIEW 1,313 1,488,000 1,133 99

5 BOTANNIA 1,227 1,325,000 1,080 956

5 DOVER PARKVIEW 936 975,000 1,041 99

5 THE INFINITI 1,249 1,180,000 945 FH

8 CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES 570 932,000 1,634 FH

8 CITYLIGHTS 1,356 1,850,000 1,364 99

9 HELIOS RESIDENCES 1,668 6,001,900 3,597 FH

9 ORCHARD VIEW 2,530 6,360,000 2,514 FH

9 VIDA 527 1,190,000 2,256 FH

9 THE TRILLIUM 2,217 4,790,000 2,160 FH

9 THE COSMOPOLITAN 1,141 2,300,000 2,016 FH

9 PARC EMILY 1,227 1,963,200 1,600 FH

9 WATERFORD RESIDENCE 1,195 1,619,888 1,356 999

9 LANGSTON VILLE 936 1,260,000 1,345 999

9 OLEANAS RESIDENCE 1,668 2,180,000 1,307 FH

10 GALLOP GREEN 2,992 5,684,800 1,900 FH

10 GALLOP GABLES 3,111 5,300,000 1,704 FH

10 AVALON 1,582 2,628,000 1,661 FH

10 REGENCY PARK 3,175 5,250,000 1,653 FH

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

10 SPRING GROVE 1,012 1,600,000 1,581 99

10 SOMMERVILLE PARK 1,948 3,000,000 1,540 FH

10 PROXIMO 1,119 1,700,000 1,519 FH

10 THE ASTON 678 1,010,000 1,489 FH

10 MUTIARA VIEW 1,173 1,500,000 1,278 FH

10 THE TESSARINA 1,679 2,100,000 1,251 FH

10 THE SERENADE @ HOLLAND 3,746 3,830,000 1,022 99

11 PARK INFINIA AT WEE NAM 560 1,118,000 1,997 FH

11 NEWTON SUITES 1,238 2,330,000 1,882 FH

11 MONTEBLEU 807 1,300,000 1,610 FH

11 MONTEBLEU 807 1,285,000 1,592 FH

11 NINETEEN SHELFORD ROAD 947 1,340,000 1,415 FH

11 THE ANSLEY 1,302 1,650,000 1,267 FH

12 TRELLIS TOWERS 1,485 1,660,000 1,118 FH

13 BLOSSOMS @ WOODLEIGH 1,410 1,638,000 1,162 FH

14 THE SUNNY SPRING 1,109 930,000 839 FH

14 SIMSVILLE 1,528 1,220,000 798 99

14 STARVILLE 2,260 1,600,000 708 FH

14 WING FONG MANSIONS 1,163 815,000 701 FH

15 THE SOVEREIGN 3,305 7,000,000 2,118 FH

15 THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER 1,066 1,620,000 1,520 FH

15 THE COTZ 398 590,000 1,481 FH

15 PEBBLE BAY 2,174 2,960,000 1,361 99

15 COTE D'AZUR 1,109 1,488,000 1,342 99

15 THE WATERSIDE 2,142 2,850,000 1,331 FH



Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

15 THE BELVEDERE 1,302 1,728,000 1,327 FH

15 CASA MEYFORT 1,765 2,320,000 1,314 FH

15 COTE D'AZUR 840 1,060,000 1,263 99

15 PARKSHORE 990 1,200,000 1,212 FH

15 PALAZZETTO 818 920,000 1,125 FH

15 COSTA RHU 1,345 1,500,000 1,115 99

15 THE AMBROSIA 1,313 1,420,000 1,081 FH

15 THE AMBRA 1,130 1,190,000 1,053 FH

15 EAST GROVE 883 895,000 1,014 FH

15 GOLD LEAF MANSIONS 915 902,000 986 FH

15 THE GRANDIFLORA 1,087 1,010,000 929 FH

15 UNITED MANSION 1,356 1,250,000 922 FH

15 PINEHURST CONDOMINIUM 1,302 1,200,000 921 FH

15 EAST GROVE 1,055 960,000 910 FH

15 TELOK MANSION 1,550 1,200,888 775 FH

15 PALM LOFT 1,679 1,300,000 774 FH

16 COSTA DEL SOL 947 1,350,000 1,425 99

16 COSTA DEL SOL 1,313 1,650,000 1,256 99

16 RIVIERA RESIDENCES 786 930,000 1,184 FH

16 BAYSHORE PARK 936 880,000 940 99

16 BAYSHORE PARK 936 855,000 913 99

16 EAST MEADOWS 1,195 1,085,000 908 99

17 FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM 883 830,000 940 FH

17 AVILA GARDENS 1,604 1,320,000 823 FH

17 BALLOTA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,066 830,000 779 FH



18 EASTPOINT GREEN 958 770,000 804 99

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

18 MELVILLE PARK 1,206 860,000 713 99

19 GOLDEN HEIGHTS 764 960,000 1,256 FH

19 SUNGLADE 1,152 1,280,000 1,111 99

19 EVERGREEN PARK 1,238 860,000 695 99

19 HOUGANG GREEN 1,141 790,000 692 99

20 BISHAN 8 1,163 1,400,000 1,204 99

20 GRANDEUR 8 1,259 1,220,000 969 99

20 THE GARDENS AT BISHAN 1,152 1,060,000 920 99

20 BRADDELL VIEW 1,453 1,150,000 791 99

20 THE GARDENS AT BISHAN 1,367 1,080,000 790 99

20 SIN MING PLAZA 2,142 1,480,000 691 FH

21 GARDENVISTA 1,130 1,330,000 1,177 99

21 PANDAN VALLEY 1,313 1,330,000 1,013 FH

21 THE RAINTREE 947 950,000 1,003 99

21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,055 1,058,000 1,003 FH

21 PANDAN VALLEY 2,239 2,200,000 983 FH

21 BUKIT REGENCY 1,421 1,350,000 950 FH

21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,421 1,290,000 908 FH

21 BUKIT REGENCY 1,249 1,130,000 905 FH

21 HIGH OAK CONDOMINIUM 1,216 1,100,000 904 99

21 HILLVIEW GREEN 1,442 1,235,000 856 999

21 SHERWOOD TOWER 1,518 1,150,000 758 99

21 SHERWOOD TOWER 1,421 988,000 695 99

22 LAKEHOLMZ 1,507 1,255,000 833 99

22 THE CENTRIS 1,894 1,558,888 823 99

22 LAKEHOLMZ 1,496 1,208,000 807 99

22 PARC VISTA 1,270 1,010,000 795 99

22 LAKESIDE TOWER 1,970 905,888 460 99



NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property

transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land

Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a

purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

23 CASHEW HEIGHTS CONDOMINIUM 1,658 1,558,800 940 999

23 CHANTILLY RISE 947 860,000 908 FH

23 CASHEW HEIGHTS CONDOMINIUM 1,227 1,100,000 896 999

23 HILLVIEW RESIDENCE 1,432 1,230,000 859 999

23 HILLVIEW REGENCY 1,195 970,000 812 99

23 NORTHVALE 1,087 820,000 754 99

23 GUILIN VIEW 1,259 935,000 742 99

23 NORTHVALE 1,087 800,000 736 99

23 REGENT HEIGHTS 1,163 850,000 731 99

23 PALM GARDENS 1,216 865,000 711 99

26 CASTLE GREEN 1,216 950,000 781 99

26 SEASONS PARK 1,066 820,000 769 99

27 ORCHID PARK CONDOMINIUM 872 720,000 826 99

27 ORCHID PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,249 838,000 671 99

27 ORCHID PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,249 800,000 641 99

http://www.propwise.sg/secretsofsingaporepropertygurus/

singapore property weekly issue 47

Documents

ascendant assets pte

excluding balcony allowance

upper floor space

singapore property market

changi city

industrial space

property market

property prices