Singles Day Online Shopping Review

Equity Research | Commerce Nov 13, 2015

Ou Yafei, Research Analyst, SFC CE No. BFN410, oyf@gf.com.cn +86-20-87555888-8641 GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited, 29-30/F, Li Po Chun Chambers, 189 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong

This page is a summary of a report originally written in Chinese. The Chinese version shall prevail in the event of any discrepancy between the two versions.

Online shoppers attaching greater importance to product quality; watch opportunities from social-networking-based e-commerce and e-commerce operation agents

Tmall’s success proving marketing and resource consolidation capabilities

Total transactions on Tmall rose 60% YoY to Rmb91.2bn on this year’s Singles Day (reaching Rmb1bn within the first minute, Rmb10bn within 12 minutes, and last year’s full-day figure within 12 hours), with transactions through the mobile channel accounting for 68% (2014: 43%). A total of 468m orders were placed (2014: 278m), peaking at 85,900 orders per second, exceeding last year’s peak of 38,500 orders per second and Visa’s testing speed of 56,000 orders per second. Strong sales performance on Singles Day reflected Alibaba’s (BABA US) marketing and resource consolidation capabilities. In addition, the company’s “Double 11 Night Show” produced jointly with Hunan TV was also highly successful with a Youku live viewer number of 35.27m and a household TV rating of 23%. Visitors to the Taobao smartphone app reached 130m even before the show started, with new user registrations of 20x the normal scale. Brands on Tmall such as KanS and Menglong Chateau saw visitor traffic spike during the performance of the stars that represent them. The show created a much stronger impact than the JD.com (JD US)-CCTV combination.

Rise of offline brands, cross-border and rural e-commerce noticeable trends

Brands originating from the offline space showed considerable strength this year and started to catch up with pure online brands, with Uniqlo and Pechoin overtaking pure online brands to be the No.1 brands of women’s clothes/cosmetics on Tmall and five/six of the top ten brands of these two categories being offline brands. In addition, importing e-commerce grew significantly with transactions during the first two minutes on Tmall Global equaling the full-day figure for last year, and transactions on the cross-border channels of JD.com, Amazon and Better Life’s (002251 CH) Yunhou all surging. The growing strength of offline and overseas brands in the online shopping space suggests that online shoppers have attached greater importance to strong branding, requiring better product quality, logistics and after-sales services in their overall shopping experience, which makes e-commerce companies’ control of their back-end supply chain increasingly important. Last but not least, we have also noticed that the rural e-commerce channels of both Alibaba (transactions breaking Rmb10m by the eighth minute) and JD.com (sales more than five times higher than that on JD’s Jun 18 anniversary) saw substantial growth during this year’s Singles Day spree . We believe e-commerce giants’ efforts to develop the rural market will become an industry highlight going forward on improving infrastructure and policy support.

Watch social-networking-based entertainment and e-commerce operation agents

As product quality, logistics and after-sales services will be key to e-commerce development going forward amid easing online shopping growth, we prefer JD.com (a retail company specializing in back-end supply chain management) over Alibaba (an internet company strong in front-end operations). In addition, the success of Alibaba’s Double 11 Night Show proved the high e-commerce conversion rate of social-networking-based entertainment, which we see as a crucial entry point for online shopper traffic. In this regard, we suggest watching Happigo Home Shopping (300413 CH), Huasi Holding (002494 CH), Jinzi Ham (002515 CH) and Rainbow Department Store (002419 CH). Lastly, given the ongoing transformation of vertical e-commerce players into e-commerce platforms, the weakening effect of visitor traffic growth and the introduction of overseas brands in online shopping, the use of professional e-commerce operation agents will be the best option for traditional brands seeking to develop a presence in the e-commerce space. We expect leading operation agent companies to become better known to the public and to see exponential growth starting from this year. We suggest watching Baozun (BZUN US), Xinmin Textile Sci & Tech (002127 CH, given Nanji E-Commerce), New Huadu Supercenter (002264 CH, given Jiuai Zhihe), Dehua TB New Decoration Material (002043 CH, given Duoying), UCO, Ruoyuchen, Layn Natural Ingredients (002166 CH, given Niesheng) and BlueFocus Communication (300058 CH, given BlueFocus Ecommerce).

Key risks include worse-than-expected logistics experience of e-commerce, and high product return rates.

2

“双十一”购物节点评

2015 年 11 月 13 日 股票研究 | 商业贸易

欧亚菲, 分析员, 证监会中央编号 BFN410, oyf@gf.com.cn +86-20-87555888-8641 香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦 29-30 楼 广发证券(香港)经纪有限公司

品质化网购时代，关注社交电商&代运营行业爆发机会 天猫双十一 912 亿刷新记录，营销策划资源整合能力无人能及

双十一购物盛宴落幕，天猫总成交规模 912 亿，同比增长 60%（1 分钟 10 亿，12 分钟 100 亿，12 小时超去年全天），其中移

动端占比达到 68%（去年 43%）；总订单量 4.68 亿（去年 2.78 亿）、交易峰值 8.59 万笔/秒，全球第一（去年峰值 3.85 万笔/

秒，Visa实验数据 5.6万笔/秒）。惊艳的数据是阿里超强的营销策划和资源整合能力的体现，而与湖南卫视联手打造的双十一晚

会更是一大亮点：双十一晚会优酷直播总人数 3,527 万，电视占有率 23%；晚会高关注度+表演明星的粉丝效应引爆代言品牌。

晚会开始前手机淘宝访问量就达到 1.3 亿，新增注册用户是平时 20 倍，诸如韩束（流量激增 10W+UV）、梦陇酒庄（访问量暴

增 10 倍）等均在其代言明星表演时段出现流量激增，影响力远远超过京东+央视的组合，无愧于互联网营销之王。

线下跨境品牌唱主角，农村电商已在路上

如果说去年双十一是大部分线下品牌的线上初体验，今年双十一则是线下品牌走向线上的全面爆发。以女装和美容护肤两个传统

淘品牌聚集的品类为例 ，优衣库、百雀羚分别力压韩都衣舍和阿芙精油成为品类单店第一，且在女装/美容护肤品类十大店铺中

线下品牌占据 5 席/6 席；另一方面，跨境进口成为一大亮点，天猫国际 3000 万消费者参与、开售 2 分钟超去年双十一全天、京

东（较十月日均增长 366%）、亚马逊（同比增长 4 倍）、步步高云猴（同比增长超过 600%）等跨境频道均大幅增长。线下品

牌的逆袭和海外品牌的突飞猛进表明，线上购物的品牌化诉求越发凸显，讲求品质、物流、售后的综合购物体验时代，对后端供

应链的管控能力的重要性将越发凸显。最后，尽管披露数据不多，我们认为农村电商已经在路上：阿里农村淘宝首次参会，8 分

钟销售过千万、京东农村帮服务超今年 6.18 销售额 5 倍。基设施的完善、国家政策的扶持、巨头下乡的开拓将促使农村电商成

为热点。

投资建议：社交电商的春天，代运营从幕后走向台前

双十一单日的爆发尽管震撼，但未能改变电商整体销售增速放缓的现实，用户对品牌和品质的追求促使 C2C 向 B2C 转移，移动

互联网的兴起促使流量从 PC 端向移动端分散，商品品质、物流、售后等体验因素依然是电商未来关注重点。阿里本质是精于前

端运营的互联网公司，京东则是长于后端供应链管控的零售公司。因而我们更看好京东。

双十一晚会的成功验证了社交娱乐的魅力，明星/大 V 的粉丝经济（IP 效应）以及用户互动形成的社交圈，具备极强的电商转化

率。在 PC 端流量向移动端转移，去中心化的过程中，社交娱乐将是极其重要的电商流量入口，建议关注快乐购、微卖（华斯股

份）、微盟（金字火腿）、天虹商场等。

垂直电商平台化、流量红利消退、海外品牌进驻中国三大背景下，专业代运营公司成为品牌发力电商渠道的最佳选择，优秀代运

营龙头逐渐从幕后走向前台，行业从 2015 年开始迎来爆发期。建议关注宝尊电商（美股），以及南极电商（新民科技）、久爱

致合（新华都）、多盈网络（兔宝宝）、杭州悠可、若羽臣、涅生网络（莱茵生物）、蓝标电商（蓝色光标）等 A 股上市公司涉

足的代运营标的。

风险提示：物流体验低于预期；退换货比例高。

2015 年 11 月 13 日

3

行业报告

图 1：历年天猫双十一成交规模 图 2：天猫季度 GMV

数据来源：公司公告、WIND、广发证券 (香港)

图 3：半天超过 2014 年交易总额，无线端占比近 70% 图 4：双十一订单天猫总量达到 4.68 亿

数据来源：亿邦动力、广发证券 (香港)

图 5：双十一其他电商 图 6：天猫双十一晚会市场关注度遥遥领先

数据来源：亿邦动力、酷云、广发证券 (香港)

2015 年 11 月 13 日

4

行业报告

表 1：部分代运营公司双十一成绩

数据来源：亿邦动力网、广发证券 (香港)

表 2：双十一天猫销售总榜前十店铺变化

数据来源：亿邦动力网、广发证券 (香港)（2015 年排名截至 15:41）

表 3：双十一天猫女装销售前十店铺变化

数据来源：亿邦动力网、广发证券 (香港)

2015 年 11 月 13 日

5

行业报告

表 4：双十一天猫美妆销售前十店铺变化

数据来源：亿邦动力网、广发证券 (香港)

Nov 13, 2015

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Sector report

Rating definitions Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time horizon: 12 months

Company ratings

Buy Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%

Accumulate Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%

Hold Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%

Underperform Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

Sector ratings

Positive Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Neutral Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Cautious Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

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