siqing liu space environment prediction center national space science … · 2015-02-06 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Space Weather Services
in China
Siqing Liu
Space Environment Prediction CenterNational Space Science CenterChinese Academy of Sciences
![Page 2: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
1. Increasing Need for SpaceWx
2. Successful SpaceWx Services
3. Improvement of Operational
SpaceWx Forecasting Framework
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 2
![Page 3: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. Increasing Need for SpaceWx
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 3
![Page 4: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4
• To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space mis sions, theSpace Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) was establishe d in 1992 inNSSC,CAS.
• In 1998, SEPC set up the first generation of an operational sp aceweather forecast system, and built up a professional foreca sting team.
• Since then, SEPC has been issuing space weather prediction v ia internet365 days/year and providing space weather services for cust omers .
2. Successful SpaceWx Services
![Page 5: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 5
SpaceWx Services for the Entire Process of a Space Flight Mission
Design Period Before Launch In-Orbit experiment
Forecast for launch window(solar activity , geomagnetic activity, space debris, atmospheric environment, radiation environment)
Monitoring , forecast and warning(solar eruption. solar proton, solar wind, geomagnetic storm, three times one day)
Mid-term Forecast
Short-term Forecast
Long-term
experiment period
Background Analysis
Space environment parameter(long term forecast, ssn and radio flux )SEE numeric evaluation(single event effects, radiation damage effects)
Nowcast
Forecast
Warning
Nowcast
Forecast
Warning
Monitoring, forecast and warning(solar eruption. solar proton, solar wind, geomagnetic storm, once every day)
2. Successful SpaceWx Services
![Page 6: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
2/3/15 UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 6
Services for Manned Space Flight Missions
1999
2003
2005
Nov.20,Shenzhou ⅠⅠⅠⅠ
Jan. 10 Shenzhou ⅡⅡⅡⅡ
Oct.15 Shenzou ⅤⅤⅤⅤThe first manned spaceship
2008
Oct.12 Shenzhou ⅥⅥⅥⅥMulti-person and multi-day
Sep.25 ShenzhouⅦⅦⅦⅦEVA, Space-related scientific experiments
2002
Sep.29 TiangongⅠⅠⅠⅠNov.1 ShenzhouⅧⅧⅧⅧRendezvous and docking
2012
June 16 ShenzhouⅨⅨⅨⅨManual rendezvous and docking
2001
Mar.25 Shenzhou ⅢⅢⅢⅢDec. 30 Shenzhou ⅣⅣⅣⅣ
2011
June 11 Shenzhou ⅩⅩⅩⅩ2013
As a subsystem of space application system, SEPC has supplied space weather services in each step of China’s Manned Space Program for 10 Shenzhouspace ships and Tiangong 1.
2. Successful SpaceWx Services
![Page 7: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 7
� In 1999, in order to avoid Leonid burst, the launch of Shenzhou-1 was postponedfor 48 hours, from Nov.18 to Nov. 20. This is the first time a launch plan waschanged due to a space environment event in China.
� According to the observation, meteoroid flux had declined to safe levels atlaunching time.
Leonid Burst Prediction for Shenzhou I
2. Successful SpaceWx Services
![Page 8: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Geomagnetic field quiet period prediction for ShenzhouⅦⅦⅦⅦ
The geomagnetic Ap index during SZ-7 launch, EVA and companion microsatellite experiment
2. Successful SpaceWx Services
![Page 9: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 9
No solar proton event, a kind of severe space environment event, occurred during the missions.
2. Successful SpaceWx Services
![Page 10: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
3. Improvement of SpaceWx
Forecasting Framework
(1) SpaceWx forecast system(2) Product capability expansion (3) Extension of service means(4) Development of operational SpaceWx models(5) Improvement of SpaceWx data capability
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 10
![Page 11: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
(1) Space weather forecast system
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 11
Outpu t Output
PHONE
Spam
Prevention
Data Reception
Data Received
Operational Processed
Models Run
Nowcasts
Forecasts
Warnings/Alerts
Effects Analysis
Fault Diagnosis
Products Made/Visualization
Space –based monitors
Ground–based monitors
DataBase(30G/day)
Service
![Page 12: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
(2) Product capability expansion
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 12
Space weather event alerts• Solar Flare• Solar Proton Event• Geomagnetic StormFundamental spaceWxparameters observation• SSN• F10.7• Ap
More SpaceWx Parameters, prediction• SSN• F10.7• Ap• Kp• AE• Dst• Electron FluxSpace Environment Specification• Radiation belt• Middle-upper atmosphere• Magnetopause• ……Space Environment Effects Evaluation• Single event effect• Surface Charging• Internal dielectric charging• Total radiation evaluation• ……
![Page 13: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 13
General Public ::::forecasts, models,dataContents ::::space weather parameters (SSN, F10.7, Ap, Dst, Kp, AE,
GEO >2MeV Electron Flux)space weather events (Solar Flare 、、、、SPE、、、、Geomagnetic Storm、、、、Relativistic Electron Flux Enhancement)
Publish ::::Website, Text message, email, App, Wechat, Weibo
(fax, email , document)
Customers ::::Manned Space Mission, Lunar Exploration …
Contents ::::according to user needs,space environment specification,space environment effect evaluation…Publish ::::according to user needs
(fax, email, document)
(2) Product capability expansion
![Page 14: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
(3) Extension of service means
�Website
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 14
![Page 15: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 15
Space weather information are pushed to customers b y:(Left) text message; (Middle) mobile App; (Right) W echat
(3) Extension of service means
![Page 16: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
(4) Operational models
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 16
![Page 17: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
(4) Operational models
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 17
http://eng.sepc.ac.cn
![Page 18: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
(5) Space weather data
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 18
Ground Based
Two ground based space weather monitoring networks have been constructed. The
first one, Space Environment Monitoring Network (SEMnet), is to support operational
forecasting works in Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC). The other one,
Meridian Space Weather Monitoring Project , is to supply data for space weather
integrated modeling that will be translated into operational frameworks through
SEPC-China.
Space Environment Monitoring Network Meridian Space Weather Monitoring Project
![Page 19: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
(5) Space weather data
UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 19
Space Based
Space environment data from satellites, either from meteorological satellites such as
Fengyun series, or from applied satellites such as China Beidou’s navigation satellite
system, are used to support space weather services and modeling.
![Page 20: Siqing Liu Space Environment Prediction Center National Space Science … · 2015-02-06 · UNCOPUOS @ Vienna, Austria 4 • To meet the space weather requirements for China’s space](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050308/5f705b0d4ab5dd28605eb3b7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Space Environment Prediction Center, NSSC/CAS