sis impacts of climate change on australian biodiversity beaumont 2007
DESCRIPTION
Scientists in Schools Program - Presentations from the Energy and Climate Change SymposiumTRANSCRIPT
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The Heat is ON: Impacts of climate change in Australia’s biodiversity
Linda Beaumont Macquarie University
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Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on
species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to
determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we
undertake?• Science in Schools
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Climate changes so far…
(IPCC, 2007)
• Temperature increase 0.74 C⁰
• Precipitation trends: highly variable spatially & temporally
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In Australia from 1910 to 2004:Average min temp rose 0.6°C Average max temp rose 1.2°C
1950-2005: Southern & eastern Australia have become drier
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What lies ahead: 2030
CSIRO 2007
Precipitation best estimate: little change in far north, decreases of 2-10% elsewhere
Temperature best estimate: 0.7°C annual warming
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Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on
species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to
determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we
undertake?• Science in Schools
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Why do ecosystems matter?
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Ecosystem Services & Functions
Supporting Services: primary production, provision of habitat, nutrient cycling, production of oxygen, water cyclingRegulating Services: pollination, seed dispersal, climate regulation, natural hazard protection, erosion controlMarketable Products: wood, fuel, fish, pharmaceuticals, tourism & recreationCultural Services: Spiritual & religious values, education, asthetic values
Human well-beingGlobal ChangesClimateBiochemical cyclesLand useSpecies Introduction
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The Money Tree
What are ecosystem services & functions worth?
(Costanza et al., 1997)
$18-54,000,000,000,000 per year
Global GNP:$18,000,000,000,000 per year
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Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on
species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to
determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we
undertake?• Science in Schools
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Temperature influences the development of species
Impacts of temperature on organisms
• Metabolic processes controlled by enzymes
• Functioning of enzymes influenced by temperature
• Below 0⁰C ice crystals may form in cells, above 45⁰C proteins may denature
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As temperature increases …
Flowering occurs earlier Development rate increases
Photosynthesis, transpiration, respiration increase
Johns et al. 2003
Pei-Ling et al., 2006
BUT…
Hi Temp
Low Temp
Temperature
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Each species has an optimal range
Temperature
Sur
viva
l Optimal
Just surviving
Dead
Just surviving
Dead
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Short, medium & long term responses of plants to climate
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Climate plays a pivotal role in the distribution of species
• Major types of vegetation occur at similar latitudes & altitudes on different continents.
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Paleoecology• Expansion & contraction of glaciers in NH
resulted in southward & northward migration of vegetation
Current 11,000ya 13,000ya 15,000ya
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Why will climate change impact species?
• ↑ mean temperature will lead to ↑ extremes
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Carbon Dioxide
• Photosynthesis = energy from the sun is used to combine CO2 + water to produce sugars and oxygen
• Stomata: CO2 entry, water loss
http://www.schoolhousevideo.org/Media/leafwithlabels.jpg
• Rate depends on light, water, CO2, temp
• Increase CO2
Increase growth
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Direct impacts of CO2
• Species respond differently
• Growth potential may not be realised if water or nutrients limit growth
• Interactions between CO2, temperature & precipitation
• Are benefits short-term?http://www.co2science.org/scripts/
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Indirect impacts of CO2
• Greater accumulation of carbohydrates may change C:N ratio.
• Herbivores need nitrogen• Eat more? Or grow slower?
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Species & communities will be affected
1. Directly:
- Temperature- Rainfall- CO2
- Extreme events
2. Indirectly:
- Interactions with other species
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Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on
species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to
determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we
undertake?• Science in Schools
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Hypotheses:• Some species will tolerate
climate change
• Timing of spring events will be more likely to advance than be delayed
• Species ranges will be more likely to shift poleward or upwards in elevation than move towards the equator
Pei-Ling et al., 2006Temperature
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What responses have occurred so far?
(IPCC 2007)
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Types of responses to climate change:
• Phenotypic: adjust behaviour, morphology, physiology • Spring events advanced by 2.3 days/decade (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003)
Root et al., 2003
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Breeding grounds:Arrival -3.1 days/decadeDepart +8.1 days/decade
Winter grounds:Arrival -5.3 days/decadeDepart -7.8 days/decade
Changes in migration of Australian birds: 1960-2005
Beaumont et al 2006
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Types of responses to climate change:• Range shifts• Parmesan & Yohe (2003) meta-analysis found 6.1km per
decade shift polewards• Thomas et al., (2006): up to ~90km since 1970 & ~ 212m in
elevation• Range shifts occurred among plants, birds, insects, reptiles
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Rainforest expansion
Snow-gumexpansion
Saltwater intrusion into freshwater swamps
Coral bleaching
Alpine: feral animalsIslands: plant
colonisation, bird & seal population increases
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Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on
species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to
determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we
undertake?• Science in Schools
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Future impactsKakadu: Salt water intrusion, displacement of freshwater wetlands
QLD Wet Tropics: Extinctions of many endemics, deterioration of reefs
Murray-Darling Basin: Reduced water supply, threats to freshwater wetlands, reduced habitat for migratory birds
SW WA: Range reductions, fragmentation for endemic plants & crops
Alpine zone: loss of plant & animal species, increase in shrubs
Migratory birds:More overwintering, residency
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Winners
• Short generation times• Good dispersal• Broad climatic tolerances• Generalists• Opportunists
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Losers
• Long generation times• Poorly dispersed• Narrow climatic tolerances• Specialists• Isolated populations• Genetically impoverished
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99%of the Australian continent < 1000m
Limited scope for altitudinal migration as climate zones shift
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How far would a species have to move to stay in the same climate it is in today?
300m
400m
500m
600m
700m
200m
800m
For every 1°C increase in average yearly temperature it would have to shift:
~ 100m uphill or~ 125km south
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Soils• eg. 10-400 ppm P is common (cf >500 ppm for N. Hemi• High proportion of sandy and saline soils• Very infertile by N.Hemi standards
http://www.gu.edu.au/ins/collections/webb/html/11-90.html
capacity for Australian vegetation to respond to elevated CO2 may be limited
Implications: elevated CO2 can have “fertilisation effects”
BUT: only if other factors are not limiting 700 ppm 350 ppm
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• Vegetation in all but wettest areas very fire-prone• 5% of land surface burnt each year (up to 50% in north)
Fire
Future fire regimes affected by:• Temperature• Rainfall• Fuel loads (CO2)
(Hennessy et al. 2005)
Increased frequency & intensitye.g. extreme fire days 10-40% by 2020
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Human Occupation
Migration with climate zones difficult for many species
• Long history of human habituation (>60,000)
• High degree of habitat fragmentation since European settlement
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Migration potential
• How fast do species need to migrate?
• Are there any barriers to dispersal?
• Current and future habitats may decrease in size due to climate and land-use changes
http://www.science.smith.edu/stopoverbirds/Chapter1_intro.html
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Direct impacts to humans: Agriculture
• ↓SW, ↑NE• Southern Australia:
non-viable in dry margins, expand into wet margins
• Potential for adaptation
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Horticulture:
• Temperate fruits & nuts negatively affected
• Crops relying on irrigation at a disadvantage
• Qld fruit fly expected to pose risk to southern Australia
• Reduction in wine quality• But alternate varieties can be
grown
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Farming
• CO2 may increase pasture growth
• Will depend on moisture• Spread of exotic weeds• Reduction of rabbits via
biological controls• ↑in thermal stress of
animals
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Coasts
• 80% of Australians live in the coastal zone
• Sea level rises• Storm surges• Loss of wetlands
Society
• Tourism/recreation• Increased hazards• Energy use• Health
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Outline
• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on
species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to
determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we
undertake?• Science in Schools
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Research Methods
Monitor
ExperimentModel
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Monitoring
• Trends over time:– Long-term observations– Re-sampling sites used
previously• Relate to climate variables• Extrapolate future impacts Root et al., 2003
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Modelling
• Relationship between climate and distribution
Current Future
Beaumont et al 2007
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Experimentation
• Elevated CO2, temperature, precipitation
http://www.gartenbau.uni-hannover.de/gem/Einrichtungen/Bilder/Gew-Haus.jpg
www.haibei.org/haibei/researche.htm per.ornl.gov/Zak.html
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Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on
species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to
determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we
undertake?• Science in Schools
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Challenges for conservationists, policy-makers & managers
• Overcoming “too hard basket” syndrome
• Accept that climate change will have measurable, & negative impacts over the next few decades
• Accepting that traditional conservation strategies will not be adequate in the future
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Peters RL & Darling JDS (1985)
Climate change & nature reserves
• Many species now in reserves will need to move elsewhere
• Promote connectivity to assist natural adaptation of mobile or widely distributed species especially in fragmented landscapes
• Consider manipulation/triage priorities
• Develop simple monitoring strategies for identifying change to inform adaptive planning
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Outline
• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on
species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to
determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we
undertake?• Science in Schools
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Science in Schools
• Phenology: the study of the timing of life cycle events in plants and animals
• Used to:– Track the effect of climate change on organisms– Make predictions about the future health of the
environment• Phenology networks established overseas
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School Phenology Network• Aims: 1) Encourage schools to actively take part in nature
observations2) Provide data for scientific investigations
• How: By recording the onset of phenological stages in annual natural cycles
• Benefits to students:1) Understanding the relationship between climate and natural cycles2) Knowledge of climate change and its impacts3) Methods of data collection and collation4) Analyses of trends over time5) Direct participation in a large-scale scientific study
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What can we record?
• First bloom• Open flower• Full bloom• Fruit/seed dispersal• Arrival /departure of
migratory birds• Appearance of butterflies• End of butterfly season• Frogs spawning
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What happens with the data?
• Recorded on a website• Accessible to all schools• Latitudinal and
altitudinal gradient
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Internet advantages…
• How may species distributions shift?• What happens to species distributions when
habitat is fragmented?• What may happen to coastal wetlands as sea-
levels rise?• How does temperature changes development
time of insects?
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Questions?