sis051 macro impacts of autonomous vehicles
TRANSCRIPT
Macro Impact of
Autonomous vehicles
ITS WORLD CONGRESS 2017
Hiroaki Miyoshi, Doshisha University Masanobu Kii, Kagawa University
October 31, 2017
1
This research is supported by JSPS Grants-in-Aid for
Scientific Research (KAKENHI) Grant Numbers 25281071,
16K12830 and 15H02869.
The views expressed in this PPT slides are the authors' own
and do not reflect the view of SIP-adus.
2
• Autonomous vehicles will significantly change the cost and
cost structure of vehicle. Japanese industry might be affected
most heavily.
• It might take over three decade for fleet replacement rate by
autonomous vehicle attain some 80%.
• In the case where the price of autonomous vehicle is low,
autonomous vehicle might have negative impact to make city
compact.
INDEX
Industrial structural changes caused by autonomous vehicles,
1.
How long will it take for autonomous vehicles to be diffused to society? ,
2.
3. Autonomous vehicles and urban structure.
1 Industrial structural changes caused by autonomous vehicles
5
Autonomous vehicles require a variety of special sensors,
artificial intelligent software. This will significantly change the
cost and cost structure of vehicle.
Some experts claim that autonomous vehicles will results in
decrease of vehicle sales and ownership due to further
diffusion of vehicle sharing and ridesharing.
These impacts are difficult to predict. Autonomous vehicle,
however, should have a significant impact on industrial
structure.
Japanese industry might be affected most heavily.
6
Three categories of indexes are estimated using Leontief
inverse matrix (domestic) .
Fist category index : Defined as relative size of influence on
the entire industry (including the self-sector) in case where
final demand of the industry increases by one unit,
Second category index: The direct effect of 1.0 to the self-
sector is excluded,
Third category index: The self-sector are completely
eliminated and only the effects on the other sector is
considered.
7
Hiroaki Miyoshi and Masanobu Kii, Macro Impact of Autonomous vehicles, Special Interest Session, ITS World Congress 2017, Montreal
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Japan Germany US
8
Source) Prepared by author using Updated Input-Output Tables 2014, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry ( METI ), Japan
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
First category index of the powerof dispersion
2 How long will it take for autonomous vehicles to be diffused to society? Draft – Please Do Not Quote or Circulate
10
When discussing the effect from diffusion of autonomous
vehicles, we should consider how long it will take for
conventional vehicle fleet to be replaced by autonomous
vehicles.
The major determinants are fleet age structure, average life
expectancy.
It might take over three decade for fleet replacement rate by
autonomous vehicle attain some 80%.
11
The maximum number of years a vehicle may be used is 40.5
years,
The rate at which vehicles are discarded obeys a Weibull
distribution parameterized by the number of years of vehicle
use dating from initial registration.
The number of vehicles owned at the end of 2015 is a
function of the number of vehicles sold over the past 41
years:
12
Solving the following optimization:
))405.0
(exp(*))395.0
(exp(*..................................
))15.0
(exp(*))05.0
(exp(*_
)_(
19751976
201420152015
2
20152015
2
mm
mm
SalesSales
SalesSalesFleetEstimated
FleetEstimatedFleetMinimize
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
France Canada Japan Sweden UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
World
Average Life Expectancy Average Age
Source) Estimated by author
Note) Draft – Please Do Not Quote or Circulate
4-wheeled vehicle fleet
14
Discarded vehicles are replaced by new cars,
Autonomous vehicles are launched into the market in 2020,
The ratio of autonomous vehicles to new cars attains 100% in
and after 2040,
The ratio of autonomous vehicles to new cars increases
linearly from 2020 to 2040.
15
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Japan Canada US
2030 2040 2050
Japan 0.21 0.64 0.94
Canada 0.22 0.65 0.94
US 0.18 0.56 0.88
Source) Estimated by author
Note) Draft – Please Do Not Quote or Circulate
3 Autonomous vehicles and urban structure
17
In the case where the price of autonomous vehicle is high,
autonomous vehicle might contribute to creating compact city.
It is because autonomous vehicle diffuse only in compact city.
It will induce people to move to the city.
On the contrary, in the case where the price of autonomous
vehicle is low, autonomous vehicle might have negative
impact to make city compact.
It is because autonomous vehicle diffuse also in wide-spread
city.
18
LV0 Own Drive Park
LV5(shared=automatic taxi)
Call
Wait
Possibly used by the other user
Ride on
Travel
Get out
To next service
19
Choice is based on “time” and “cost”
Time Cost
LV0 No waiting time Owner bear full vehicle costs
LV5 Waiting time Users share vehicle costs
20
• People live in circular shaped city and their residences
are distributed uniformly in the urban space.
• Destinations are distributed uniformly over the urban space.
-> average travel distance is in proportion to urban radius.
• Travel demand is generated randomly over 24 hours
(no peak hour is considered).
0
20
40
60
80
100
Diffusion
rate(%)
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
10
20
30
40
50
60
Diffusion rate
L5 vehicle price(yen/day)
Urb
an
ra
diu
s(k
m)
21
10,000yen ≑ 90USD （at the rate of 110 Japanese Yen to USD）
Source）M. Kii, A. Yokota, Z. Gao and K. Nakamura, The Effect of Urban Conditions on Dissemination of Shared Fully-Automated Vehicle, Papers of 54th Research Meeting on Civil Engineering Planning, 2016 (In Japanese)
22
• Autonomous vehicles will significantly change the cost and
cost structure of vehicle. Japanese industry might be affected
most heavily.
• It might take over three decade for fleet replacement rate by
autonomous vehicle attain some 80%
• In the case where the price of autonomous vehicle is low,
autonomous vehicle might have negative impact to make city
compact.
Thank you