sistem keuangan inklusif 01
DESCRIPTION
Sistem KeuanganTRANSCRIPT
Wh
enyou
rebro
ke
go
and
get
alo
anTak
eou
tan
oth
erm
ort
gag
eon
you
rh
om
eC
on
soli
dat
eso
you
can
affo
rdTo
go
and
spen
dso
me
more
wh
en
Gre
edin
ess
&co
nsu
mer
ism
:Sh
ania
Tw
ain
’sen
ciet
y
Ka
Ch
ing
To
go
and
spen
dso
me
more
wh
enY
ou
get
bore
d
All
we
ever
wan
tis
more
Alo
tm
ore
than
we
had
bef
ore
So
tak
em
eto
the
nea
rest
store
We
live
ina
gre
edy
litt
lew
orl
dT
hat
teac
hes
ever
yli
ttle
boy
and
gir
lTo
earn
as
mu
chas
they
can
poss
ibly
Th
entu
rnar
ou
nd
and
Sp
end
itfo
oli
shly
So
tak
em
eto
the
nea
rest
store
[rep
eat
choru
s]
Let
ssw
ing
Di
di
kt
py
Wev
ecr
eate
du
sa
cred
itca
rdm
ess
We
spen
dth
em
on
eyth
atw
ed
on
tp
oss
ess
Ou
rre
lig
ion
isto
go
and
blo
wit
all
So
its
shop
pin
ever
ysu
nd
ayat
the
mal
l
Dig
dee
per
inyou
rp
ock
etO
h,y
eah
,h
aC
om
eon
Ikn
ow
you
ve
got
itD
igd
eep
erin
you
rw
all
etO
h
All
we
ever
wan
tis
more
Alo
tm
ore
than
we
had
bef
ore
So
tak
em
eto
the
nea
rest
store
[ch
oru
s:]
All
we
ever
wan
tis
more
Alo
tm
ore
than
we
had
bef
ore
So
tak
em
eto
the
nea
rest
store
[h
][
]C
anyou
hea
rit
rin
gIt
mak
esyou
wan
na
sin
gIt
ssu
cha
bea
uti
fulth
ing
ka
chin
g!
Lots
of
dia
mon
dri
ng
sT
he
hap
pin
ess
itbri
ng
s
[rep
eat
choru
s]
Can
you
hea
rit
rin
gIt
mak
esyou
wan
na
sin
gY
ou
llli
ve
lik
ea
kin
g
1
eap
pi
ei
ig
You
llli
ve
lik
ea
kin
gW
ith
lots
of
mon
eyan
dth
ing
s
Wit
hlo
tsof
mon
eyan
dth
ing
sK
ach
ing!
1
Agenda
Agenda
1LatarBelakang
a.
KrisisGlobal
b.
DampakterhadapIndonesia
c.EthicalEconomic(M
aqasidalSharia)
II
(q
)
Karakteristik&ProspekEkonomidiIndonesia
a.
Seja
rah
b.
Eco
no
mi &
Bis
nis
III
c.
Sis
tem
Keu
an
gan
Inklu
sif
ata
uC
reati
ve M
icro
no
mic
s
ApaYangHarusKitaLakukan?
Ekspektasi
Ekspektasi
IV
2
a.
Glo
bal
Cri
sis
I. L
ata
rB
ela
ka
ng
4
Glo
bal
Eco
nom
icSlo
wd
ow
nSou
rce:
IMF,
Nov
2008,
BSM
sou
rce
2
a.G
lobal
Cri
sis
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
Seb
agia
nbes
arh
uta
ng
AS
ber
asal
dar
ilu
arA
S,se
hin
gg
ak
ii
diA
Sk
jl
kk
risi
sd
iA
Sak
an
men
jala
rk
en
egar
an
egar
ala
in(k
red
itor)
…globalfinancialsystemhitbyaseverecreditcrunch(was)triggeredinitiallybythe
collapseintheUnitedStatesofthesubprimemortgagemarket…
IMFSurvey,13October2008
5
Link:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/NEW101308A.htm
Source:BSMResearch
3
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
a.GlobalCrisis
AnalistOpinion
AccordingJack&SuzyWelch:
Len
der
s:fo
rta
kin
gad
van
tage
ofu
nqu
alif
ied
and
vu
lner
able
hom
ebu
yer
sH
ome
buyer
s:fo
rget
tin
gov
erth
ehea
ds
Whit
eH
ouse
:fo
rle
ttin
gba
nki
ng
regu
lati
ons
beco
me
too
loos
eF
inan
ceex
ecu
tives
:fo
rse
llin
gpro
du
cts
they
did
n’t
un
der
stan
dw
hil
een
joyin
gou
tsiz
edpro
fits
Mar
kto
mar
ket
acco
un
tin
g:f
orac
cele
rati
ng
dow
ntu
rnM
ark
tom
arke
tac
cou
nti
ng:f
orac
cele
rati
ng
dow
ntu
rnR
atin
gag
enci
es:fo
rm
isch
arac
teri
zin
gpap
erS
hor
tse
llin
ghed
ge
fun
ds:
for
bett
ing
ondoo
msd
ayT
he
tran
sfor
mat
ion
ofin
ves
tmen
tba
nks
from
pri
vat
epar
tner
ship
sin
topu
blic
lytr
aded
com
pan
ies
Source:Jack
,Suzy
Welch(2008,S
eptember25).BusinessWeek
Link:
http
://w
ww
.busi
nes
swee
k.co
m/m
agaz
ine/
conte
nt/
08_4
0/b
4102084
769835.h
tm
Sebagianbesaralasanberkaitandenganaspek
6
gg
pREGULASI,SPEKULASI,&MANAJEMENRISIKO
Source:BSMResearch
4
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
a.GlobalCrisis
Consumerism
Consumerism
StimulusFactor
Greediness
CR
ISIS
CR
ISIS
Regula
tion
Regula
tion
(Greedy&
Corrupt)
Sp
ecu
latio
nS
pe
cu
latio
nS
pe
cu
latio
nS
pe
cu
latio
n
7Source:BSMResearch
5
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
a.GlobalCrisis
REGULATIONASPECT
TheFedInterest
GrowthCreditvsIncome
SOURCE:TheWashingtonPost
Link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp
/buie/daily/ahi/fedfud111004htl
CreditRatiotoGDP
srv/business/daily/graphics/fedfund_111004.html
Kebijakansukubungarendah(sejak2001)memicu
pertumbuhankredit(pemerintah,swasta,dan
individu).Sementara,pertumbuhanpendapatan
8
individu).Sementara,pertumbuhanpendapatan
tidak
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
a.GlobalCrisis
REGULATIONASPECT
Kreditmacetsubprime
mortgagetertinggi
Kreditperumahanberisikotinggi(subprime
9
pgg
pmortgage)tumbuhterlalucepat,bersamaandengan
tingginyakreditmacetdisektortsb.
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
a.GlobalCrisis
PRACONDITION:SPECULATION
Period 2
000-2
008
Deposits G
rew
$ 3
,000B
n!
Avera
ge
gro
wth
$375B
n/y
r
Period 2
000-2
008
Deposits G
rew
$ 3
,000B
n!
Avera
ge
gro
wth
$375B
n/y
rA
vera
ge
gro
wth
-$375B
n/y
r
10.4
% C
AG
R!!
Period 1
996-2
000
Deposits G
rew
$ 7
00B
n…
Ath
$175B
/
Avera
ge
gro
wth
-$375B
n/y
r
10.4
% C
AG
R!!
Period 1
996-2
000
Deposits G
rew
$ 7
00B
n…
Ath
$175B
/A
vera
ge g
row
th -
$175B
n/y
r
5.1
7%
CA
GR
Avera
ge g
row
th -
$175B
n/y
r
5.1
7%
CA
GR
Implie
s p
rolif
ic in
flux o
f fu
nds into
US
in last 8 y
ears
.
Per A
naly
sis
, sourc
e o
f fu
nds u
nknow
n.
We k
now
how
it w
as u
tiliz
ed (
sub-p
rim
e w
as o
ne o
f th
e c
ard
s d
ealt)
Implie
s p
rolif
ic in
flux o
f fu
nds into
US
in last 8 y
ears
.
Per A
naly
sis
, sourc
e o
f fu
nds u
nknow
n.
We k
now
how
it w
as u
tiliz
ed (
sub-p
rim
e w
as o
ne o
f th
e c
ard
s d
ealt)
10
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2007/0507/02banfin.cfm
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
a.GlobalCrisis
PRACONDITION:SPECULATION
Sumber:FDIC
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/regional/ro20062q/n
a/images/OutlookChart05.gif
PortofolioderivatifbankdiAS
Sumber:http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Components_of_the_United_States_money_supply.svg
Dikiikit
ktiit
kli
ki
PorsiM1menurun
11
Diyakini,kegiatanaktivitasspekulasisemakin
tinggidenganmenurunnyaporsiM1
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
a.GlobalCrisis
PRACONDITION:CONSUMERISM
Kreditmacet
Savingmenurun
drastis
Kreditmacet
meningkat
http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/risk/2006_02/imgs/Chart24.gif
PersonalsavingwargaAmerikamenurun:
Rhd
jlkh
12
•Rentanterhadap
gejolakharga
•R
epay
men
tca
pac
itymenurun,
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
a.GlobalCrisis
PRACONDITION:CONSUMERISM
Kreditmacet
Kreditmacet
meningkat
Penyalurankredit
bank
Dampakkegagalankredit
subp
rim
em
ortg
agelebih
besarkarenabankmenempatkandanadisurat
berhargayangmemilikiunder
lyin
gtr
ansa
ctio
nsampai
13
berhargayangmemilikiunder
lyin
gtr
ansa
ctio
nsampai
yangtidak
Sumber:FDIC
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/regional/ro20062q/n
a/images/OutlookChart05.gif
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
a.GlobalCrisis
GREEDY FDIC(FederalDepositInsuranceCorporation)regardingfailureofFirstStateBank:
“Theban
kshistoricallystrongearningsperform
ance
has
beenim
pactedby
deteriorationin
theloan
portfolioan
drisingoverheadexpen
ses.Net
incomeis
overstated
by$5
00,000
dueto
aninad
equateAllowan
ceforLoan
andLease
Losses,
whichhas
notincreaseddespitesignifican
tloan
growth.A
fter
mak
ingtherequired
provision,R
eturn
onAssets(R
OA)declines
to0.87
%from
1.14
%as
reported
onthe
Decem
ber
31,200
4,UBPR.T
hisiswellbelow
thepeergroupratioof1.26
%.
Sumber:h
ttp://w
ww.fdic.gov/reg
ulations/resources/directors_colleg
e/sfcb/roe.htm
l
(08/03
/200
5)
Leh
man
BrothersChairm
anan
dCEO
RichardFuld
Jr.m
ade$3
4millionin
2007
ofBONUS.
Leh
man
(OTC:LEHMQ)filedforChap
ter11
Ban
kruptcyprotectionearlierthismonth.F
uld
also
sold
nearlyahalfbillion–$
490million–from
sellingLEH
stock
;Note:L
ehman
’sAsset
Eqiv.R
p6.39
0T
Sumber:http://bigpicture.typep
ad.com/commen
ts/2008/09/ceo
claw
backpr.htm
l
14Source:BSM
Research
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
b.DampakterhadapIndonesia
Eu
rop
ean
Cri
sis
an
d G
lob
al
Eco
no
mic
Eu
rop
ean
Cri
sis
an
d G
lob
al
Eco
no
mic
TR
AD
E A
ND
CO
MM
OD
ITY
PR
ICE
SH
OC
KS
Fin
an
cia
l S
ecto
rF
inan
cia
l S
ecto
rTra
din
g a
nd
Pri
cin
g P
rim
ary
Co
mm
od
ity
Tra
din
g a
nd
Pri
cin
g P
rim
ary
Co
mm
od
ity
Fu
nd
am
en
talE
co
no
my
Fu
nd
am
en
talE
co
no
my
Do
me
stic P
olic
y R
esp
on
dD
om
estic P
olic
y R
esp
on
d
It
Sti
tI
tS
tit
Inv
es
tor
Se
nti
me
nt
Inv
es
tor
Se
nti
me
nt
Imp
act
to In
do
nesia
nIm
pact
to In
do
nesia
n
6
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
b.DampakterhadapIndonesia
Slowdown
ofglobal
growth
Decliningcommodity
prices
Exportdecline
Importremainstrongdueto
excessaggregateddemand
Currentaccount
Cuetaccout
deficit
1.FDIweak
2.BOPwilldecline
3.Currencywillbe
depreciated
depreciated
Rupiahakanterdepresiasi
16
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
b.DampakterhadapIndonesia
EuropeanCrisisContributionandIndonesianGlobalBondInvestor
Source:ISEI,AnggitoAbimanyu
b.DampakterhadapIndonesia
I. B
ack G
rou
nd
NamunKomposisiInvestordiPasarModal
(Asing&Lokal)TidakTerlaluBerubah
2011
39%
39%
Asing
Lokal
2010
61%
37%
63%
Source:ISEI,AnggitoAbimanyu