situation and outlook of the us aquaculture industry 2000 - 2001 dr. terry hanson mississippi state...

Situation and Outlook of the Situation and Outlook of the US Aquaculture IndustryUS Aquaculture Industry

2000 - 20012000 - 2001

Dr. Terry HansonDr. Terry Hanson

Mississippi State UniversityMississippi State University

Department of Agricultural EconomicsDepartment of Agricultural Economics

Presentation

• World trends

• National – consumption– species & facilities

• Highlight on Catfish Industry– Short- and Long-Term

Aquaculture is: - farming of aquatic organisms

- intervention in the rearing process to enhance production

- ownership of the stock being cultivated

World AquacultureProduction

World Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

mill

on m

etri

c to

ns

Capture Fisheries Aquaculture

Source: USDC/NOAA/NMFS, 2001

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Value, US$ millions Quantity, thousand metrictons

China Japan India Indonesia

Thailand Bangladesh Viet Nam Korea, Rep.

Philippines Other Countries

World Aquaculture ProductionMajor Producer Countries

Source: FAO, 2000; note data includes aquatic plants

US Consumption of Fish and Shellfish

US Per Capita ConsumptionFish and Shellfish Products

11.811.5

12.512.8

12.1 12.2

12.912.7

13.4

13.0

12.512.7

12.5

13.4

14.2

15.1

15.5

16.2

15.2

15.6

15.0 14.9 14.815.0

15.215.0

14.814.6

14.915.1

15.6

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

POUNDS

15.6 lbs./capita15.6 lbs./capita20002000

Source: USDC/NOAA/NMFS, 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70B

eef

Bro

iler

s

Pork

Fis

h &

Sh

ellf

ish

Tu

rkey

US Per Capita Consumptionof Meat and Fish, 2000*

Lb/person/year

66.0

55.749.2

15.6 14.3

* Boneless weight

Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2010, February 2001

Top Ten Seafood Species in 2000

13.60Total of Top Ten0.27Scallops0.43Flounder/Sole0.46Crabs0.48Clams0.77Cod1.12Catfish1.59Salmon1.68Alaskan Pollock3.20Shrimp3.60Tuna

SpeciesSpecies ConsumptionConsumption

lbs. per personlbs. per person

Source: National Fisheries Institute, 2001




13.60Total of Top Ten0.27Scallops0.43Flounder/Sole0.46Crabs0.48Clams0.77Cod1.121.591.68Alaskan Pollock3.203.60Tuna

Top Ten Seafood Species in 2000


SpeciesSpecies ConsumptionConsumption

lbs. per personlbs. per person

Source: USDOC/NOAA/NMFS, 2001




13.60Total of Top Ten0.27Scallops0.43Flounder/Sole0.46Crabs0.48Clams0.77Cod1.12Catfish - 100% is from Aq.1.59Salmon - 50% is from Aq.1.68Alaskan Pollock3.20Shrimp - 27% is from Aq.3.60Tuna

U.S.AquacultureProduction

Production States

NORTH CENTRALNORTH CENTRAL NORTHEASTERNNORTHEASTERN

SOUTHERNSOUTHERN

WESTERNWESTERN

TROPICAL & SUBTROPICALTROPICAL & SUBTROPICAL

PerchStriped BassTilapia

CatfishStriped BassTilapiaBaitfish

TroutSalmonShellfishStriped BassTilapia

Ornamental, Food and Shellfish

SalmonShellfishStriped Bass

Aquaculture Sales

Sales by Aquaculture Category

• Food fish - 70%

• Mollusks - 9%

• Ornamental fish - 7%

• Baitfish - 4%

• Crustaceans - 4%

• Sport/Game - 1%

• Other animal aqua. - 5%

Food Fish Species

• Catfish• Rainbow trout• Atlantic Salmon• Striped Bass• Tilapia• Others

Food Crustacean Species

• Shrimp• Crayfish• Freshwater prawn• Softshell crab

Baitfish Species• Golden shiner• Fathead minnow• Goldfish• Others

– Bull minnow– common carp– tilapia– sunfish

Ornamental Species

• Goldfish

• Angelfish

• Guppies

• South American Catfish

• Koi carp

• 100’s of others

Pond Stocking Species

• Channel catfish

• Largemouth bass

• Bluegill

• Redear sunfish

• Yellow perch

• Trout

0200400600

Value Quantity

Catfish SalmonTrout BaitfishOysters ClamsCrayfish TilapiaHybrid striped bass Shrimp

Estimated 1999 US Finfish & Shellfish AquacultureProduction & Value (1,000,000)

0

50

100

Value Quantity

Salmon TroutBaitfish OystersClams CrayfishTilapia Hybrid striped bassShrimp

Estimated 1999 US Finfish & Shellfish AquacultureProduction & Value (1,000,000)

• Ponds - 63% ->

• Cagesand pens

• Raceways

• Closedre-circulation systems

Aquaculture Production Facility Types In Use

Aquaculture Production Facilities

• Ponds

• Cagesand pens - 4% -->

• Raceways



• Ponds

• Cagesand pens

• Raceways - 14% --->



• Ponds

• Cagesand pens

• Raceways

• Closedre-circulation systems - 7% ----->

U.S.CatfishIndustry

Catfish Water Surface Acres

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,00019

89

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Acr

es

AL

AR

LA

MS

Total Catfish Acreage = 185,700

Catfish Round Weight Processed

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1,00

0s o

f lbs

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

* through August 2001, 100% of last year at this timeSource: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS

*

Total U.S. Catfish Sales

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

1,00

0s o

f D

olla

rs

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS

?

Fresh and FrozenCatfish Products

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

1,00

0s o

f L

bs.

FreshFrozen

Product Form Sold

21%

62%

17%Whole fish

Fillets

Other

FRESH

$1.95

$2.00

$2.05

$2.10

$2.15

$2.20

$2.25

$2.30

$2.35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1999

2000

2001

FROZEN

$2.15

$2.20

$2.25

$2.30

$2.35

$2.40

$2.45

$2.50

$2.55

$2.60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1999

2000

2001

Average Fresh and Frozen Catfish Product PriceReceived by Processors, 1999 - July 2001

Catfish Fillets Processed in U.S.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1,00

0s o

f Lbs

.

FreshFrozen

Catfish Industry Issues

• Low catfish prices for producers

• Increasing production costs

• EPA effluent discharge regulations

• Other issues affecting production costs

Low Catfish Prices Received by Producers

• Why?• Viet Namese frozen fillet imports increasing• On-farm inventories up• Full freezers at processing plants• Economic uncertainty• Stagnant per capita consumption

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/lb

Po

nd

Ban

k P

rice

1975-2000 Avg Price

Catfish Price Paid to Farmer, $/lb

25-year avg

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/lb

Po

nd

Ban

k P

rice

1975-2000 Avg Price '1990-2000 Avg


25-year avg

10-year avg

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/lb

Po

nd

Ban

k P

rice

1975-2000 Avg Price '1990-2000 Avg '1995-2000 Average


25-year avg

10-year avg

5-year avg

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/lb

Pon

d B

ank

Pri

ce

1975-2000 Avg Price 2001 '1990-2000 Avg '1995-2000 Average


25-year avg

10-year avg

5-year avg

2001 price

Average 2001 prices* are:

• $0.09/lb less than 5-year average

• $0.06/lb less than 10-year average

* through September 2001, not adjusted for inflation (nominal prices)

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/lb

Po

nd

Ban

k P

rice

2001 2000


2001 price

2000 price

$0.12 per lb lessin Sept. 2001 thanin 2000 = -16%

Lower Price Received by Farmer& Net Returns

• Cost of production:– $0.60 - $0.72 / lb– Present price of $0.62 / lb =>

• Loss for less efficient farmers• Very low profit for efficient farmers

Imports of Catfish to U.S.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

1,00

0s lb

.

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Source: USDA/NASS


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

1,00

0s lb

.

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

<= River Catfish from Brazil whole fish from rivers

Source: USDA/NASS


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

1,00

0s lb

.

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Viet NameseFrozen Fillets78% - 97% ofall imports =>

Source: USDA/NASS * Through July 2001

*

Frozen Catfish Fillet Sales in the U.S.2000-present

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Ja

n '0

0

Mar

'00

May

'00

Jul '

00

Sep

'00

Nov

'00

Jan

'01

Mar

'01

May

'01

Jul '

01

Mill

ion

Lb

s

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%

Frozen Fillet Sales (Produced in U.S.)

Viet Namese Imported Frozen Fillets

Viet Namese Fish as % of Total Frozen Fillet Sales in US

How have imports affected the price of frozen catfish fillets?

Frozen Catfish Fillet Prices 1999 - 2001

$2.45

$2.50

$2.55

$2.60

$2.65

$2.70

$2.75

$2.80

$2.85

$2.90

$2.95Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

$/lb

1999

2000

2001

Comparison of Fillet and Pond Bank Prices

$2.45

$2.50

$2.55

$2.60

$2.65

$2.70

$2.75

$2.80

$2.85

$2.90

$2.95Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Froz

en F

illet

Pri

ce $

/lb

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

2000 Fillet

2001 Fillet

2000 Fish

2001 Fish

Pond Bank Price $/lb

Industry Response to Imports

• Legislation– “Country of Origin” labeling

– Removal of Channel Catfish images on import packaging

– Seek to have ‘Catfish’ name removed from non-Ictaluridae fish species

• Advertising– Concentrate on strict US safety and health standards

• Legal– Anti-dumping case?

Food Fish Inventories UP• Compared to last year

Food Fish Inventories are Up

– Large FF + 54%– Medium + 46%– Small + 24%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001

LargeMediumSmall

Food Fish Inventories UPWhy?

• Fish size that processors want has increased• Early 1990’s - 1.00 lb avg

• Mid 1990’s - 1.25 lb avg

• Early 2000’s - 1.50 lb avg

• Some processors now wanting 2.0 lb avg

• Larger fish require longer production cycle• 18-24 months

Food Fish Inventories UP

• “Glut” of fish ready for harvest– Expensive and risky for farmers to keep on-farm

– Low prices make selling unattractive

• Some Processors are reducing the number of shifts or processing lines

Increasing Production Costs

• Feed price inching upward

• Increasing bird populations

• Diseases: old and new

Nominal Catfish Feed Prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

9/1/

1997

12/1

/199

7

3/1/

1998

6/1/

1998

9/1/

1998

12/1

/199

8

3/1/

1999

6/1/

1999

9/1/

1999

12/1

/199

9

3/1/

2000

6/1/

2000

9/1/

2000

12/1

/200

0

3/1/

2001

6/1/

2001

Fee

d P

rice

, $/t

on

32% protein feed price Poly. (32% protein feed price)

Types of Bird Damage

• Feeding on catfish (80%)

• Injury of fish (33%)

• Disrupting feeding (23%)

• Damaging structures (23%)

• Transmission of disease– White Pelican - trematode - Ram’s horn

snail, since 1998

DCCO Wintering Population and Catfish Acreage in MS Delta

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,00019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

DC

CO

s &

Cat

fish

Acr

eage

DCCO Winter Pop Aquaculture Acres

EPA Effluent Discharge Regulation

• Looking at aquaculture discharge as point source of pollution– Diverse industry

• Screener survey sent out in Aug/Sept ‘01

• Long form of survey to follow

• Regulations due out in July 2002– Expected to increase costs of production

Cash Costs for a 250 Acre Catfish Farm Stocking 7,500 5" Fish Per Year

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310

Feed price per ton

Inco

me

Abo

ve V

aria

ble

Cos

ts

75 cents/lb

Fish Price

55 cents/lb

60 cents/lb

65 cents/lb

70 cents/lb

Short-Run

• If producers cannot cover variable costs:– Stop producing?– Difficult to stop multiple-batch production

systems– May delay restocking ponds

• Could lead to future shortages 15 - 18 months later

Long-Run

• If producers cannot cover Variable and Fixed costs, then what?

– Make Adjustments to production scheme• modular components specializing in developing

large stockers

• use of genetically improved or hybrid catfish for faster growth

• better management of off-flavor, diseases, and birds

Outlook for 2002

• Expansion on hold– Less new pond construction– Efficient farms will break even– Less efficient farms will lose some equity

gained in last few years

Outlook for 2002

• If prices remain low:– some producers will not restock– could lead to a shortage of fish in 2003– adapt with new less expensive strategies of

production

Outlook for 2002

• Much depends on how successful industry is in handling increasing imports

Outlook for Long-Term

• Food producers will be needed

• Food producers will make a living and make money

• Catfish production will continue to increase– Fish consumption will continue to go up– Beef is a substitute

• high beef prices will likely increase fish consumption

situation and outlook of the us aquaculture industry 2000 - 2001 dr. terry hanson mississippi state...

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