Sixth International Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Workshop on Tropical

CyclonesCyclones Topic 5 Topic 5

Disaster Mitigation, Disaster Mitigation,

Warning Systems and Societal Warning Systems and Societal ImpactImpact

Topic Chair : M C Wong

Rapporteurs:Topic 5.1 – W J LeeTopic 5.2 – Roger A Pielke, JrTopic 5.3 – Linda Anderson-Berry

Focus of Topic 5:Focus of Topic 5: Application of tropical cyclone Application of tropical cyclone

forecasting and warnings in forecasting and warnings in disaster risk management, disaster risk management, including :including :

(I)(I) Evaluation of the effectiveness of Evaluation of the effectiveness of warning systemswarning systems

(II)(II) Factors contributing to human and Factors contributing to human and economic losses , &economic losses , &

(III)(III) Mitigation strategies and community Mitigation strategies and community capacity building for disaster capacity building for disaster reductionreduction

RecommendationsRecommendations

I.I. Effectiveness of Warning SystemsEffectiveness of Warning Systems

Reliable forecasting of tropical cyclones Reliable forecasting of tropical cyclones

Efficient conveyance of warning Efficient conveyance of warning

informationinformation

Forecasting of Tropical CyclonesForecasting of Tropical Cyclones ToolsTools

Satellite data, Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) guidance, Model Satellite data, Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) guidance, Model consensus track forecasts, Nowcasting tools, etc.consensus track forecasts, Nowcasting tools, etc.

PerformancePerformance Improved track forecasting up to 72 hoursImproved track forecasting up to 72 hours Less reliable for weak or compact cyclones; cyclones with unusual Less reliable for weak or compact cyclones; cyclones with unusual

track behaviour or undergoing extratropical transition; multi-track behaviour or undergoing extratropical transition; multi-cyclone situation cyclone situation

Intensity forecast (including wind / rainfall distribution) remains a Intensity forecast (including wind / rainfall distribution) remains a challengechallenge

Disaster Prevention and PreparednessDisaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP) (DPP) gearing towards gearing towards the the prediction of prediction of extreme weather eventsextreme weather events

International and cross-discipline cooperation International and cross-discipline cooperation Sharing of information/experience via diff platformsSharing of information/experience via diff platforms Encourage interaction / communications between meteorologists, hydrEncourage interaction / communications between meteorologists, hydr

ologists and DPP expertsologists and DPP experts

Conveyance of Warning Conveyance of Warning Information Information

Getting the message through the last mile/kmGetting the message through the last mile/km

Multiple and diverse dissemination channels with high and low Multiple and diverse dissemination channels with high and low technology varieties and different forms of presentation of TC technology varieties and different forms of presentation of TC messages according to the level of intended audience and messages according to the level of intended audience and strength of dissemination channelsstrength of dissemination channels

Digital Multimedia Broadcasting, Internet portal sites, Digital Multimedia Broadcasting, Internet portal sites, mobile phones, satellite broadcasting, radio, TVmobile phones, satellite broadcasting, radio, TV

Social scientists to help translate probabilistic prediction into Social scientists to help translate probabilistic prediction into a more visual format for different stakeholdersa more visual format for different stakeholders

Outreach programmes and secondary education to promote Outreach programmes and secondary education to promote public awareness of the threat of TCspublic awareness of the threat of TCs

battle the human nature of “It won’t happen here”battle the human nature of “It won’t happen here”

Cooperation amongst NMHSs, emergency managers, media, Cooperation amongst NMHSs, emergency managers, media, and stakeholders down to the community leveland stakeholders down to the community level

II.II. Factors Contributing to Human and Factors Contributing to Human and

Economic LossesEconomic Losses Indexation (normalization) methodology incorporating factors to acIndexation (normalization) methodology incorporating factors to ac

count for changes in population, inflation and wealth count for changes in population, inflation and wealth How past events would affect the present societyHow past events would affect the present society

Cyclone impact studies in India, US, the Caribbean, and Latin Cyclone impact studies in India, US, the Caribbean, and Latin AmericaAmerica

No consistent trend in the normalized damage valuesNo consistent trend in the normalized damage values Societal factors largely contributing to increased lossesSocietal factors largely contributing to increased losses

Cost-benefit analyses of disaster mitigation policy alternatives Cost-benefit analyses of disaster mitigation policy alternatives and practicesand practices

A more comprehensive understanding of the value of disaster A more comprehensive understanding of the value of disaster mitigationmitigation

Open-source databaseOpen-source database on the broad human and economic on the broad human and economic impacts of disastersimpacts of disasters

A centralized, comprehensive, peer-reviewed referenceA centralized, comprehensive, peer-reviewed reference

II.II. Factors Contributing to Human and Factors Contributing to Human and Economic Losses (cont.)Economic Losses (cont.)

Policy options for disaster mitigation; securitization of Policy options for disaster mitigation; securitization of risk through catastrophe bonds and derivatives, risk through catastrophe bonds and derivatives, provision of micro-finance in developing countriesprovision of micro-finance in developing countries

A tool for disaster recovery in ways to reduce long-term A tool for disaster recovery in ways to reduce long-term vulnerabilitiesvulnerabilities

Effect of increase in sea surface temperature on TC damage aEffect of increase in sea surface temperature on TC damage and losses (due to anthropogenic climate change)nd losses (due to anthropogenic climate change)

Still inconclusive, but the possibility cannot not be rule outStill inconclusive, but the possibility cannot not be rule out

III.III. Mitigation Strategies and Mitigation Strategies and Community Capacity Building for Community Capacity Building for Disaster ReductionDisaster Reduction

A Total Warning SystemA Total Warning System – – a complete end-to-end a complete end-to-end warning processwarning process

Predict / monitor TC development/progress using best science available

Produce / deliver timely and accurate warnings in well understood formats via different channels

A receptive, prepared and resourceful community

Identifying, understanding and reducing community Identifying, understanding and reducing community vulnerabilities was seen to be importantvulnerabilities was seen to be important

Disaster mitigation gradually shifted to the Disaster mitigation gradually shifted to the development of social policies and engineering of development of social policies and engineering of defencesdefences

Implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 - 2Implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 - 2015 - Building the Resilience of Nations and Committees to 015 - Building the Resilience of Nations and Committees to Disasters and the Platform for the Promotion of Early WarniDisasters and the Platform for the Promotion of Early Warnings (PPEW) - ngs (PPEW) - a global blueprint for disaster risk reduction efa global blueprint for disaster risk reduction efforts during the next decade forts during the next decade

III.III. Mitigation Strategies and Mitigation Strategies and Community Capacity Building for Community Capacity Building for Disaster ReductionDisaster Reduction (cont.) (cont.)

III.III. Mitigation Strategies and Mitigation Strategies and Community Capacity Building for Community Capacity Building for Disaster ReductionDisaster Reduction (cont.) (cont.)

““Community capacity” is increasingly being recognized as a Community capacity” is increasingly being recognized as a reliable indicator of how human populations are likely to reliable indicator of how human populations are likely to respond to and recover from disasters respond to and recover from disasters

A ‘bottom-up’ approach to strengthen and build resilient A ‘bottom-up’ approach to strengthen and build resilient communities – case examples from Australia, Hong Kong, communities – case examples from Australia, Hong Kong, FijiFiji

Cooperatively and collectively evaluate the effectiveness of Cooperatively and collectively evaluate the effectiveness of TC warning systems - achieved through International and TC warning systems - achieved through International and multi-disciplinary post-impact case studies multi-disciplinary post-impact case studies

Recommendations:Recommendations:

The need to enhance skills in TC intensity forecasting (wind The need to enhance skills in TC intensity forecasting (wind and rainfall distribution)and rainfall distribution)

More research and development work on the applications of More research and development work on the applications of EPS, particularly for probabilistic assessment of extreme EPS, particularly for probabilistic assessment of extreme eventsevents

Establishment of international “reference database” on the Establishment of international “reference database” on the economic and non-economic losses due to TC and related economic and non-economic losses due to TC and related disastersdisasters

Promulgation of “early warnings” as an “end-to-end” Promulgation of “early warnings” as an “end-to-end” process with enhanced community involvementprocess with enhanced community involvement

Adoption the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in Adoption the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in mitigation strategies formulation mitigation strategies formulation

Facilitation interaction and communications amongst Facilitation interaction and communications amongst meteorologists, hydrologists, social scientists and DPP meteorologists, hydrologists, social scientists and DPP experts. Also, coordinate multi-disciplinary studies on experts. Also, coordinate multi-disciplinary studies on social impacts of TCsocial impacts of TC

THANK YOU