slide 1 workshop on quality control and quality assurance of greenhouse gas inventories and the...

Workshop on quality control and quality assurance of greenhouse gas inventories

and the establishment of national inventory systems

2-3 september 2004

European Environment Agency

Copenhagen

Miet D’heer

Flemish Environment Agency

Belgium

Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems - 2-3 september 2004 - EEA - Copenhagen -Miet D’heer

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Content of presentation

• Air emission inventory system GHG in Belgium• Audits emission inventory• Development quality management system and

calculations uncertainties (Flanders)• Conclusions


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Air emission inventory system GHG in Belgium

• Responsibility of 3 regions• Difference in means, methodologies,…• Coordination and tuning in WG ‘emissions’ of

CCIEP• Interregional Environment Unit (IRCEL) :

compiling national inventory


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Audits emission inventory GHG Oct-Dec 2002

Results

• Flemish emission inventory : qualitative good value• Difference actual situation and obliged situation

(guidelines UNFCCC) : implementation IPCC GPG• Further improvement harmonisation 3 emission

inventories


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Audits emission inventory GHGOct-Dec 2002

Recommendations

• Documentation and management of data• Better tuning with producers EB and establish

responsibilities• Guarantee of quality : DAP, QA/QC plan (ISO),

start analysis uncertainties (quantitive & qualitive), improvement of tiers

• Manpower and means


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Development quality management system and calculation uncertainties

• Study consultancy office (Jan-May 2004) : planning and guidance in the development and implementation of a quality system for the emission inventory of GHG and development and utilization of a methodology to calculate uncertainties


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situation before study consultancy office :

• Key source categories (tier 1) : level and trend assessment

• Intern work on quality assurance and control• Independant audits of the 3 regions• Certified ISO 9001 system for the flemish EB• EMAS certification and agreement of laboratories

• Uncertainty CO2 of fossil fuel combustion and key sources (Flanders)


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study consultancy office (Jan-May 2004) :

• Planning and guidance in the development and implementation of a quality system for the emission inventory of GHG

• Development and utilization of a methodology to calculate uncertainties


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Development quality management system

• Performance gap analyse

• Setting up a quality structure

• Setting up the procedures


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Development quality management system Conclusions GAP analyse

• Lots of elements already operational but insufficient documented

• Missing information : quality handbook, procedures required for IPCC (and ISO), management review

• Quality policy and quality objectives not yet available

• Planning to measure the effectiveness of QMS still missing


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Development quality management systemQuality structure

Quality handbookLevel 1

Standardized procedures (GP1)

Management of documents

Management review

AuditsLevel 2

Standardized procedures (GP2)

Crf tablesBalance Score CardCorrective and preventive measuresLevel 3

Forms list of control

Level 4


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1. Policy declaration

2. Work area

3. Quality system (quality handbook, procedures, judgment of system, …)

4. Organization and staff

5. Facilities

6. Orders and services to third parties

7. Performance of activities

8. Management of data and documents

9. Reporting

10. Complaines

Quality handbook :


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• Set up a DAP• Collecting data• Input and validation data• Compiling data• Reporting and documentation

Procedure to fill in CRF tables : main process


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• Determination of the strategic policy objectives• Set up the strategic policy plan (BSC plan)• Determination of critical succes factors• Link strategic objectives and internal processes• Determination of key performance indicators (KPI)• Determination of criteria for KPI

Procedure to manage the Balance Score Card : different steps

Collecting data Input andvalidation data

Compiling data Reportingt

Evaluation

Fulfilobligation

Making dataacquisition plan

Documents anddata

Records andarchiving

Obligations

Organisation andmanagement

QMS Audits

Management review

Correction andprevention

StaffMeans

ExternCommunication

Conformity against international

standards (ISO, IPCC)

# (non) conformities

VMM/AMO/

GP1/0.008

VMM/AMO/KHB

VMM/AMO/

GP1/0.010

VMM/AMO/

GP1/0.011

VMM/AMO/

GP2/5.001

Staff departme

nt

VMM/AMO/KHB

VMM/AMO/KHB

VMM/AMO/

GP2/5.002

VMM/AMO/

GP2/5.004


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Calculation uncertainties

• Basis of uncertainty estimates• Methodologie tier 1 and tier 2• Monte Carlo simulation• Uncertainties on level• Uncertainties on trend• Key sources• Conclusions


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Calculation uncertainties Basis of uncertainty estimates

• measurement data

• availability and completeness of data

• domestic and international literature

• expert judgement

• interview with other experts

• IPCC default uncertainties

Level 2001 and trend 1990-2001

CO2, CH4 and N2O


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Calculation uncertainties

Methodology tier 1 and tier 2

• Tier 1: error propagation equations (normal distributions, symmetrical, uncertainty < 100%, handling of correlations problematic)

• Tier 2: Monte Carlo simulation (distributions can have all possible shapes and widths, flexible handling of correlations, using a stochastic simulation )

• both methods used in the study


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Calculation uncertaintiesMonte-Carlo Simulation

● Input parameters of emission calculation model are replaced with probability density functions (e.g. normal or lognormal distributions)

● Total uncertainty is obtained taking random numbers from each input distribution and calculating the corresponding emission values several thousands of times to obtain the probability distribution of the emissions

●Activity data Emission factor Emissions


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Calculation uncertaintiesUncertainties on Level (Emissions 2001)

-3,95… +4,97% ±4,28%Total GHG

-28,95…+44,59%±35,23%N2O

-14,64…+17,19%±15,48%CH4

-2,75… +2,75% ±2,73%CO2

Tier 2Tier 1


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Calculations uncertaintiesUncertainties on Trend (1990 - 2001)

+5,99…+12,88% -3,49… +3,40% ±3,37% +9,48%Total GHG

-19,78… +3,77%-14,47… +9,07%±10,12% -5,31%N2O

-17,18… +2,24% -8,47…+10,95% ±9,24% -8,71%CH4

+9,82…+17,25% -3,71… +3,72% ±3,77%+13,53%CO2

Tier 2Tier 1Trend

Calculation uncertaintiesKey sources for LEVEL uncertainty (Tier 2)

•90,56•0,63• CO2•1.A.4.a. Commercial / Institutional - Gaseous Fuels

•89,94•0,70• CO2•6.C. Waste Incineration

•89,24•0,75• CO2•1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - Gasoline

•88,49•0,78• N2O•1.A.2.a. Iron and Steel - Solid Fuels

•87,71•0,78• CO2•1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Gaseous Fuels

•86,94•0,85• N2O•1.A.1.b. Petroleum Refining - Liquid Fuels

•86,09•0,89• CO2•1.A.2.a. Iron and Steel - Solid Fuels

•85,20•1,04• N2O•1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - Gasoline

•84,16•1,22• N2O•4.D.4. Agricultural Soils - Other (please specify)

•82,94•1,29• N2O•1.A.4.b. Residential - Liquid Fuels

•81,65•1,32• CO2•1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Solid Fuels

•80,32•1,51• CO2•1.A.1.b. Petroleum Refining - Liquid Fuels

•78,82•1,51• N2O•4.D.2. Agricultural Soils - Animal Production

•77,30•1,56• N2O•5.Land Use Change & Forestry

•75,74•1,59• N2O•4.B.12. Manure Management - Solid Storage and Dry Lot

•74,15•1,60• CO2•1.A.4.b. Residential - Gaseous Fuels

•72,56•1,82• CO2•1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - Diesel Oil

•70,74•2,05• CH4•6.A.1. Solid Waste Disposal on Land - Mngd Waste Disposal

•68,69•2,06• CO2•1.A.4.c. Agriculture / Forestry / Fisheries - Liquid Fuels

•66,63•2,14• CH4•4.B.1. Manure Management - Cattle

•64,50•2,23• N2O•1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - Diesel Oil

•62,27•2,43• CO2•2.G. Feedstocks

•59,85•2,46• CO2•1.A.4.a. Commercial / Institutional - Liquid Fuels

•57,39•2,72• CH4•4.A.1 Enteric Fermentation - Cattle

•54,67•3,44• CH4•6.D. Composting

•51,23•3,55• CH4•4.B.8. Manure Management - Swine

•47,69•3,74• N2O•4.D.3. Agricultural Soils - Indirect Emissions

•43,94•7,45• CO2•1.A.4.b. Residential - Liquid Fuels

•36,49•9,23• CO2•1.A.2.c. Chemicals - Other Fuels

•27,27•12,80• N2O•4.D.1. Agricultural Soils - Direct Soil Emissions

•14,47•14,47• N2O•2.B.2. Chemical Industry - Nitric Acid Production

Calculation uncertaintiesKey sources for TREND uncertainty (Tier 2)

•90,32•0,79• CO2•1.A.4.b. Residential - Liquid Fuels

•89,53•0,79• CH4•4.B.1. Manure Management - Cattle

•88,74•0,81• CH4•1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Gaseous Fuels

•87,93•0,86• CO2•6.C. Waste Incineration

•87,08•0,91• CH4•4.A.1 Enteric Fermentation - Cattle

•86,17•0,95• CO2•1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Solid Fuels

•85,22•0,97• CO2•1.A.4.a. Commercial / Institutional - Gaseous Fuels

•84,26•1,00• CO2•1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Other Fuels

•83,25•1,25• CO2•1.A.4.c. Agriculture / Forestry / Fisheries - Liquid Fuels

•82,00•1,52• CO2•1.A.4.b. Residential - Gaseous Fuels

•80,49•1,59• N2O•4.D.3. Agricultural Soils - Indirect Emissions

•78,90•2,02• CH4•6.A.1. Solid Waste Disposal on Land - Mngd Waste Disposal

•76,88•2,06• CO2•2.G. Feedstocks

•74,81•2,07• CO2•1.A.4.a. Commercial / Institutional - Liquid Fuels

•72,74•2,13• N2O•4.D.4. Agricultural Soils - Other (please specify)

•70,61•2,15• CO2•2.B.1. Chemical Industry - Ammonia Production

•68,46•2,23• CO2•1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - Diesel Oil

•66,23•2,31• CO2•1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Gaseous Fuels

•63,92•2,48• N2O•4.D.1. Agricultural Soils - Direct Soil Emissions

•61,44•3,66• N2O•1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - Diesel Oil

•57,78•6,23• N2O•1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - Gasoline

•51,55•22,34• CO2•1.A.2.c. Chemicals - Other Fuels

•29,21•29,21• CH4•6.D. Composting


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Calculation uncertaintiesConclusions

● Total uncertainty in Flanders is rather low (- 4 … + 5%), due to the large share of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, which are accurately known.

● CO2 emissions are accurately known, but other gases contain higher uncertainties.

● N2O emissions from Nitric acid production and agricultural soils dominate the uncertainty

● CO2 emissions from Other fuels (Naphtha) in Chemical industry and Liquid fuels in Other sectors (Residential, Commercial, …) are other factors most affecting uncertainty


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Overall conclusions

• Conducted study Flanders : first step• Other regions : Tier 1 uncertainty calculation and

EMAS certification (ISO 9001 foreseen) in Wallonia

• Next step : full implementation (Flanders + Wallonia + Brussels)

• Objective : first official publication results April 2005

slide 1 workshop on quality control and quality assurance of greenhouse gas inventories and the...

Documents

national inventory slide

emission inventory of

miet dheer slide

audits emission inventory

qa of ghg inventories

quality system

emission inventories

eea copenhagen