slide2 bme adat_2016
TRANSCRIPT
session#2 Divényi János @divenyi.janos
b.socrative.com
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How to find answersto relevant questions
using data
QUESTION
DATA
ANALYSIS
PRESENTATION
QUESTION
QUESTION
DATA
GET DATA
https://www.quora.com/Where-can-I-find-large-datasets-open-to-the-publichttps://sqlbelle.com/2015/01/16/data-sets-for-bianalyticsvisualization-projects
https://www.quora.com/Where-can-I-find-large-datasets-open-to-the-publichttps://sqlbelle.com/2015/01/16/data-sets-for-bianalyticsvisualization-projects
MEASURE WHAT YOU WANT
http://boredbug.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/onesecondbeforedisaster.jpg
http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/ed571/571-Modules/M3/Sampling_Design-Funny.gif
Prezi & Conversion Rate
Street Bump, Boston
How doesa new piece of
informationaffects
what we knowabout the world?
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w.b
igst
ock
phot
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Down syndrome screening
Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047
Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047
Down if positive?
Down if positive?
Down if positive?
Down if positive?P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047
0.83*0.0025 / (0.83*0.0025 + 0.047*0.9975)
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047Down if positive 0.0424
0.83*0.0025 / (0.83*0.0025 + 0.047*0.9975)
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047Down if positive 0.0424
0.83*0.0025 / (0.83*0.0025 + 0.047*0.9975)
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047Down if positive 0.0424
0.83*0.0025 / (0.83*0.0025 + 0.047*0.9975)
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
Bayes’ Theorem
P(B|A) = P(A|B) · P(B)
P(A)
P(B|A) =P(A|B) · P(B)
P(A|B) · P(B) + P(A|not B) · P(not B)
1% prevalence
99% accurate test
positive result means risk of
Simplistic example
1% prevalence
99% accurate test
positive result means risk of 50%
Simplistic example
In 1999 Sally Clark was accused for murdering her2 children after she sequentially claimed thatthey died in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).
The probability of SIDS is 1 in 8500.
In 1999 Sally Clark was accused for murdering her2 children after she sequentially claimed thatthey died in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).
The probability of SIDS is 1 in 8500.
1. If you were the judgewhat other probabilityyou would want to know?
2. Would you convict her?
In 1999 Sally Clark was accused for murdering her2 children after she sequentially claimed thatthey died in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).
The probability of SIDS is 1 in 8500.
1. If you were the judgewhat other probabilityyou would want to know?
2. Would you convict her?
3. Do you think she was convicted?
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