June 5, 2017

“Small cars continued to decline in value at a faster clip while large SUV and pickup truck values remained fairly stable last week.”

Anil Goyal, Senior Vice President of Automotive Valuation and Analytics

Model Years: 2008-2014, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 5/26/17 to 6/2/17

Truck Values Relatively Stable Last Week x Volume-weighted, overall car segment values declined by 0.46% last week. In comparison, the market

values had decreased on average by 0.32% per week in the previous four weeks.

x In car segments, Sub-Compact Car and Compact Car segments performed the worst, decreasing by 0.88% and 0.97%, respectively.

x Volume-weighted, overall truck segment (including pickups, SUVs and vans) values decreased by just 0.08% last week, better than the average decrease of 0.21% per week in the previous four weeks.

x In truck segments, Sub-Compact Luxury Crossover/SUV and Compact Luxury Crossover/SUV values dropped the most by 0.71% and 0.42%, respectively.

-$54-0.88% -$80

-0.97%

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-$109-0.32%

-$50-0.31%

-$59-0.14% -$52

CARS-0.46%

-1.2%

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0%

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+$52+0.42%

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+$2+0.01%

-$12-0.05%

-$133-0.71%

-$87-0.42%

-$35-0.16% -$98

-0.29%

-$8-0.06%

-$8-0.09%

-$6-0.04%

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+$5+0.03%

-$13TRUCKS-0.08%

-1.0%-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%

0%+0.2%+0.4%+0.6%

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2

June 5, 2017

Sentiment from the Auction Lanes

Our editors and personnel attend about 60 auctions every week across the country to provide key insights:

“Online auctions in Florida (dealer consigned) and Pennsylvania (commercial) showed similar results. There was not a lot of interest in the vehicles which resulted in more no-sales than usual.” Terry from GA

“Volume was down but the inventory that was here sold well with very few no-sales.” Roy in NC

“Our business has been good. I wish we had more vehicles to quench the dealer demand but the positive sales conversions have been the norm which is good.” Auction General Manager in PA

“Normal sale this week with an average number of vehicles. Prices remain steady but dealers seem to be getting more conservative, not only in what they will buy but what they will pay.” Jim in WA

Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index

Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index recorded at 112.3 for the month of May, a drop of 0.7% from April value of 113.1. Twelve-month change in Retention Index is -5.6%. Click here to obtain a copy of the latest index data.

Vehicle Highlight 2018 Genesis G80 is available with a 3.8L V6, 3.3L V6 Sport, or a 5.0L V8. Base MSRP starts at $42,725 including factory destination charge. The 3.8L V6 comes standard with 311hp and the 3.3L V6 Sport comes standard with 365hp. The top of the line 5.0L is standard with 420-hp and 383-lb-ft of torque. Close competitors include the Audi A6, Lexus ES, and Cadillac CTS.

This week’s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty Markets.

3

June 5, 2017

May Auctions Continue to Impress “Collectible car auctions continued to show strength last month with very impressive showings by Auctions America’s Auburn Spring sale and Mecum’s Original Spring Classic held in Indianapolis. Attendance was high at both events, bidding was lively, and sales totals were robust.”

Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets

x Auctions America’s Auburn Spring sale was held in conjunction with the joint AACA/CCCA “Triple Crown” meet at the Auburn Auction Park in Indiana. This is a historic event…the first time that the Antique Automobile Club of America and the Classic Car Club of America have ever hosted a combined meet. Nearly 350 vehicles were run across the block during the three-day event, with a conversion rate of 83% and total sales of $10,200,000.

x Mecum held their 30th Anniversary Original Spring Classic auction a few miles down the road in at the Indiana State Fairgrounds in Indianapolis, selling 1,208 vehicles of the 1,654 on offer for a sell through rate of 73%, quite impressive for an auction of that size. Total sales came in at $55,600,000, which is the highest ever recorded for this event. Interestingly, there were a dozen collections being offered at this sale; we are seeing more of this as many of the owners decide to liquidate their collections and move on to pursue other interests.

Notable Recent Auction Sales Include:

1967 Toyota 2000GT $750,000 (Mecum) 1996 Porsche 911 GT2 EVO $1,450,000 (Mecum) 1963 Chevrolet Corvette ZO6 $410,000 (Mecum) 1970 Chevrolet Chevelle LS6 Convertible $385,000 (Mecum) 1969 Chevrolet Yenko Camaro $330,000 (Mecum) 2006 Ford GT $300,000 (Mecum) 1941 Packard One-Eighty Darrin Convertible $360,000 (AA) 1944 Buick Hellcat Tank Destroyer $247,500 (AA) 2014 Porsche GT3 Coupe $154,000 (AA) 1968 Shelby GT500KR Fastback $220,000 (AA)

Photo courtesy of Mecum Auctions

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American Classics

SPECIALTY MARKETS: COLLECTIBLE CARS

4

June 5, 2017

RV Values at Auction Strong as Summer Arrives “Summer has finally arrived, and retail sales remain strong. Towable sales at auction set yet another record last month, and although Motor Home values declined a bit, they are still up from two months ago if you eliminate the unexpected price spike which occurred last month. Auction volume (and conversion rates) continue to be high, increasing for the past several months, which indicates a strong demand for quality used units from RV dealers.”

Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets

For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C)

x Average selling price was $41,149 down $3,230 (7.2%) from previous month x One year ago, the average selling price was $40,350 x Auction volume was up 20% from the previous month

For Towables (including Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels)

x Average selling price was $13,591, up $194 (1.4%) from previous month x One year ago, the average selling price was $12,069 x Auction volume was up 12% from previous month

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Motor Home Value Trends

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Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends

SPECIALTY MARKETS: RECREATIONAL VEHICLES

SPECIALTY MARKETS: RECREATIONAL VEHICLES

5

June 5, 2017

Powersports Market Remains Steady “The Powersports market has leveled off a bit from the past few months of strong and steady increases in value, with this month being more steady than strong. The vast majority of vehicles see nominal changes, with the exception of domestic cruisers and off-road bikes, which are both up.”

Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor

x Though not broken out separately, the domestic V-Twins are the strongest performers this month, with an average increase of a little under three percent, while the metric cruisers have remained flat, leading to an overall cruiser segment average increase of 1.3 percent.

x The off-road bikes are also up by healthy amounts this month, with an increase averaging 2.6

percent. The rest of the segments see minimal changes with only the Scooter and Snowmobile segments’ values changing by more than one percent.

x The market appears to be heading for what we like to call a “soft landing” of peak values for the season. In most years, values hit their high point right around the end of June or the 4th of July, before seeing a drop-off in the middle of July that continues through the fall. Sometimes this occurs with a bang, with prices dropping by huge amounts from July to August, while other times it’s in a more gradual fashion; that appears to be what we are seeing as of this month.

0.4%

1.3%

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2.6%

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-1.9%-2.7%

-0.1%

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-1.0%

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3.0%Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Changes May to June 2017

SPECIALTY MARKETS: POWERSPORTS

6

June 5, 2017

Values of Traditional Long Nose Trucks Are Dropping! “The Long Hood, Long Wheelbase Big Power Conventionals have lost a little of their grip on Value Retention and are dropping more in recent sales.”

Charles Cathey, Editor – Heavy Duty Truck Data

It started showing up a couple of months back, and towards the end of April and in May, these trucks, late models mostly, dropped quite a bit, although the older they get the depreciation slows up quite a bit. For a while we have talked about how Over the Road Tractors continue to depreciate. Upstream venues have pulled some of the real nice used trucks out before they reach auction. This is another factor affecting the average sale price. There are still more buyers than sellers, so we expect similar results as long as this mismatch holds up. Conventional/ Vocational Trucks continue to do well.

DATE Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL

YEARS Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change 06/01/17 81,956 -309 -0.4% 65,403 -1081 -1.6% 55,668 -803 -1.4% 2014-2015 05/01/17 82,265 -426 -0.5% 66,484 -512 -0.8% 56,471 -499 -0.9% 2014-2015

x 2014-2015 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $309 (0.4%) in May compared to the average decline of $426 (0.5%) in April.

x 2014-2015 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $1081 (1.6%) in May compared to the average drop of $512 (0.8%) in April.

x 2014-2015 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $803 (1.4%) in May compared to the average depreciation of $499 (0.9%) in April.

DATE Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL

YEARS Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change 06/01/17 40,668 -289 -0.7% 29,940 -700 -2.3% 21,702 -427 -1.9% 2006-2013 05/01/17 40,957 -280 -0.7% 30,640 -542 -1.7% 22,129 -430 -1.9% 2006-2013

x 2006-2013 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $289 (0.7%) in May compared to the $280 (0.7%) in April.

x 2006-2013 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $700 (2.3%) in May compared to $542 (1.7%) average deprciation in April.

x 2006-2013 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $427 (1.9%) in May compared to the average drop of $430 (1.9%) in April.

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Average Wholesale Value Changes (Market)

Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors

7

June 5, 2017

Late Model Truck Have Stronger Retention Than Older Units

“Medium Duty trucks continue to depreciate as we begin the second half of 2017”

Josh Giles, Senior Truck Editor

This past month the late model units (2014 – 2015) retained their values better than the older units (2006-2013) on a percentage basis. In May, late model trucks dropped an average of $353 (0.9%), while the older model dropped an average of $222 (1.2%). In addition, late model trucks retained their values better in May (-$353) compared to April (-$393). The older units dropped a little more in May (-$222) compared to April (-$186). Reports are indicating that orders should slowly increase through the rest of this year as GDP and the housing market are projecting positive outlooks for the remainder of the year. Hopefully this translates into an increase in supply for the used medium duty market. Even as wholesale prices continue to drop there is still a lot of demand for these units as they perform so many jobs throughout the country. So, we are not expecting these units to depreciate more in the next few years even as supply is expected to increases.

DATE Medium Duty MODEL

YEARS

DATE Medium Duty MODEL

YEARS Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change 06/01/17 40,844 -353 -0.9% 2014-2015 06/01/17 17,749 -222 -1.2% 2006-2013 05/01/17 41,196 -393 -0.9% 2014-2015 05/01/17 17,970 -186 -1.0% 2006-2013

As a national average we are currently paying $2.54 per gallon for diesel. This is a $0.06 drop from last month, and a $0.25 increase from this time last year. We’ve heard reports of a current surplus that is helping keep fuel prices down. Hopefully this is a downward trend that will continue.

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-$0.02-$0.02-$0.01+$0.00

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+$0.5005/15/1705/08/1705/01/1704/24/1704/17/1704/10/17

Diesel Price Changes

Price Chg/Week Price Chg/Year

SPECIALTY MARKETS: MEDIUM DUTY