small cells, state of the nation

© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.

Small CellsState of the Nation

David ChambersSenior Analyst


• Analyst focused on Small Cells since 2008• Publish articles and insights on web & video• Communicate to targeted industry audience

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3G/LTE will predominate by 2020Cisco VNI Feb 2016


Global transition towards LTE

Ericsson Mobility Report 20154GAmericas Sep 2015

North America has highest share of LTE subscribers (198M = 47%)

China has highest number of LTE subs (> 380M = 28%)

Europe catching up

VoLTE follows slowly


Network Capacity JourneyLTE + new spectrum

Refarm 2G -> 3G

Enable Wi-Fi offload at home/office

Carrier Wi-Fi

3G/4GEnterpriseCellular

Urban LTE Small Cell

Wi-Fi Homespot

LTE-U/LAA

VoLTE

Refarm3G -> 4G

VoWi-Fi

Time

LTE onlyEnterprise/Residential

MuLTeFire


Where’s the money?Cellular Carrier Wi-Fi

Operator Revenues ~$1 Trillion <$0.001 TrillionLargest Operators (Revenue) $91 Billion (China Mobile)

$87 Billion (Verizon Wireless)$0.12 Billion (Boingo)$0.08 Billion (iPass)

Network Equipment Spend $43 Billion(Excludes professional services)

$0.6 Billion(Infonetics 2014)

93%

4% 2%

RANDASSmall Cell

Carrier Wi-Fi Revenues are <0.1% of cellular

Capital Spend is 1.4% of cellular

Total Wi-Fi market size $14.8 Billion


How Wi-Fi Offload differs• True Wi-Fi offload may be <5%[1]

– Scenarios where user unaware traffic carried over Wi-Fi and uses as if cellular service

• Voice over Wi-Fi capacity limited– Prioritisation of voice unable to maintain

quality for ~6 calls/access point– Heavy home data streaming can affect

voice calls– Wi-Fi has 10% voice capacity per MHz

compared to LTE (Cisco[2])

[1] Amdocs State of the RAN 2016[2] Cisco at Cambridge Wireless, ThinkSmallCell report Jan 2014

• Devices actively use Wi-Fi differently to cellular– Defer photo uploads, s/w downloads to

Wi-Fi

• Users actively differentiate Wi-Fi availability– Choose to consume more video when

on Wi-Fi, for cost or speed– As a “connection of last resort”


Wi-Fi: State of the NationResidential Enterprise/Staff Venues/Public Urban OutdoorMassively deployed, mostly by fixed BB and Cable

Variable service quality, growing demand and complexity

Massively deployed, mostly by independent SIs

Robust service, tightly secured; poor mobility

Widely deployed, often by local independent SIs

Variable service quality & security; poor mobility, lacks resilience

Municipal schemes commercially dubious viability

Variable service quality & security

FON opening access to wide customer base.

Unlikely to interwork with Carrier Wi-Fi

Commercial conflict between Carrier Wi-Fi/Passpoint & direct customer service

Passpoint would be key for wider take-up


LTE Features for Capacity GainRadio Feature Capacity Gain Dependencies

Device Sync Latency

Evolution NAICS 6-10% ✔ ✔ ✔MIMO 4x2 MIMO 23%

4x4 MIMO 77% ✔Intra-site CoMP 10-25% ✔

Small Cells 3 x ePico 350%

eICIC/FeICIC 320% ✔ ✔ ✔Smart FeICIC 350% ✔ ✔ ✔Dual Connectivity 32% ✔ ✔ ✔LTE-U 200% ✔

Multi-Sector 6 Sector 80%Broadcasting eMBMS Service dependent ✔ ✔

Source: Erol Hepsaydir, Three UK, HetNet World 2015


Small Cells: State of the NationResidential Enterprise Urban Rural

Few new deployments but some surprises(T-Mobile USA)

Millions embedded at Free France, saving spectrum/roaming fees

Most lucrative segment. Split between small/med and med/large

Growing credibility for larger buildings

Technically viable but held back by logistics, planning vs alternatives

Likely to be LTE only, targetted zones

Increased interest although small part of total market

Higher RF power and 3G/LTE required

Potential for uptick with 4G only VoLTE

3G/LTE important today, LTE for future

Neutral host

Logistics and 3rd party deployment

Regulatory drive for coverage targets


DAS: State of the NationResidential Enterprise/Staff Venues/Public Urban OutdoorRarely found except in some larger apartment complexes/mixed use buildings

Larger buildings, typically 2G/3G

Newer systems incorporate LTE

Multi-operator

Compatibility with macro networks

High capacity

ODAS where fibre plentiful

Allows neutral hosts to address urban zones

Would require alternative product architecture

Upgrading to LTE considered expensive

LTE-U/LAA less appropriate

Specialist engineering, ongoing evolution

Competes with RRH from RAN vendors


Remote Radio Heads• “Distributed basestations” including RRH and similar (e.g.

Radio DOT, Lampsite)• Brings radio heads back into scope of RAN equipment vendors

Benefits

• Compatible with macrocell layer (where present)

• Compatible with existing operational processes

Disadvantages

• Underlays 3rd party macrocells in some regions

• Processes may need to differ• Typically locked to single network

operator


Enterprise Wireless ChoicesMulti-Operator Single Operator*

*Multi-Operator possible via MORAN/MOCN or installing parallel/duplicate kit

Wi-Fi Small Cell

RRHDAS

MuLTeFireSmall Cell


Neutral Hosts become arbiter

• Aggregate large numbers of small installations

• Connect to multiple operators

…etc.


Take-aways• Wi-Fi – Cordless service inside the home/office– No money in Carrier Wi-Fi today

• Mobile Capacity = LTE + Small Cells– 3G/4G multi-mode indoor first– VoLTE when mature

• Growing focus on Enterprise– Shared costs with building owners– Neutral host business model

small cells, state of the nation

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