small pelagic fish responses to future climate change
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Small pelagic fish responses to future climate change. Shin- ichi Ito & Takeshi Okunishi (FRA). Reviewed fish responses to future climate change. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Small pelagic fish responses to future climate change
Ito S. et al. (2010) Ocean ecosystem responses to future global change scenarios: A way forward, In: M. Barange, J.G. Field, R.H. Harris, E. Hofmann, R. I. Perry, F. Werner (Eds) Global Change and Marine Ecosystems. Oxford University Press., 287-322, pp440.
Shin-ichi Ito & Takeshi Okunishi (FRA)
Reviewed fish responses to future climate change.
Recently published several papers relating fish responses to future climate change.
1. Ito S., T. Okunishi, M. J. Kishi and M. Wang (2013) Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, 980-990.
2. Yatsu A., S. Chiba, Y. Yamanaka, S. Ito, Y. Shimizu, M. Kaeriyama, and Y. Watanabe, 2013, Climate forcing and the Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystem, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, 922-933.
3. Okunishi T., S. Ito, T. Hashioka, T. T. Sakamoto, N. Yoshie, H. Sumata, Y. Yara, N. Okada, Y. Yamanaka, 2012: Impacts of climate change on growth, migration and recruitment success of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western North Pacific, Climatic Change.
Ito S., T. Okunishi, M. J. Kishi and M. Wang (2013) Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, 980-990.cv
30 cm
Distribution of Pacific saury in June-July 2007(FRA surface trawl survey) Catch of Pacific saury
Ito et al. (2013)
Pacific saury widely distribute in the North Pacific.It is exploited in several countries and an international fish.
NEMURO.FISHNEMURO for Including Saury and Herring
Megrey et al. (2007a, Ecol. Model.), Ito et al. (2004b Fish. Oceanogr.) etc.
nutrient
phyto
zoo
fish
wet weight of saury
Ensemble experiment with 12 IPCC-SSTs (A1B senario)
• Control run (1950-1999)
3 categories1) reduction of weight in the 1st and 2nd years
ccsm3, gfdl20, mirocH,mirocM, mpi, ukhadcm3
2) reduction of weight in the 2nd yearcccmat47, cccmat63, gfdl21, miub
3) no decrease (or increase) of weightpcm1, mri
Ito et al. (2013, ICES J. Mar. Sci.)
3 emission scenariosSaury decreased their weight in 24 cases in 33 cases (73%).Egg production was enhance in 11 cases in 33 cases (33%)
Dependency on emission scenarios
A2 A1B B1
ukhadcm3 1st&2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease
mirocH 1st&2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease
mirocM 1st&2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease
cccm3 2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease
mpi 2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease no decrease
gfdl20 no decrease 1st&2nd year decrease
miub 1st&2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease
cccmat63 2nd year decrease no decrease
ccmat47 2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease no decrease
gfdl21 no decrease 2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease
mri 2nd year decrease no decrease 2nd year decrease
pcm1 no decrease no decrease no decreaseIto et al. (2013, ICES J. Mar. Sci.)
2 categoriesreduction of weight in the 1st year
ccsm3, gfdl20, mirocH, mirocM, mpi, ukhadcm3
no decrease or increase of weightcccmat47, cccmat63, gfdl21,miub, pcm1, mri
With future SST & current zooplankton
Ensemble experiment with only SST forcingA1B
• Control run (1950-1999)
no decrease in second year
SST effects only on juvenile’s growth.
Ito et al. (2013, ICES J. Mar. Sci.)
Yatsu A., S. Chiba, Y. Yamanaka, S. Ito, Y. Shimizu, M. Kaeriyama, and Y. Watanabe, 2013, Climate forcing and the Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystem, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, 922-933.
Published contributions of CFAME activity. Summarize the climate effects on the Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystems.
Spawning regions
Area-1Area-2
Area-3Area-4
Control-RUN
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Area-1Area-2Area-3Area-4 0%
20%40%60%80%
100%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Area-1Area-2Area-3Area-4
Fig. Proportion of hatched numbers in the four spawning regions
CO2-RUNOkunishi et al. (2012), Climatic Change
Spawning grounds of Japanese sardine
ProjectionSpawning grounds shifts to north-eastward.
Low HighRelative density
Control-RUN CO2-RUN
Spring
Summer
Change in Geographical Distribution
Age 1
Age 1
Okunishi et al. (2012), Climatic Change