This issue of the Satellite Applications Catapult’s quarterly Small Satellite Market Intelligence report provides an update of the small satellites launched in Q4 2019 (1st October to 31st December). This edition also includes an article showing the trends and statistics of the decade.

Q4

2019

SMALL SATELLITE MARKET INTELLIGENCEREPORT

02SMALL SATELLITES LAUNCHED IN Q42019

OVERVIEW

This quarter has seen an impressive 140 small satellites launched which is the third highest quarter since 2010, with 188 in Q4 2018 and 154 in Q2 2019. This brings up the total number of small satellites launched and deployed this year to 375 making it by far the largest year - 2018 being the second highest with a total of 306. The 140 satellites were spread across 15 launches and 9 different launch families, with the biggest being a Falcon 9 launch of 60 Starlink satellites, accounting for 43% of the satellites launched this quarter. Six PocketQube’s were launched by an Electron

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Small Satellites (<500kg) Launches: Historical and Projection

This quarter shares many similarities with Q2 2019. SpaceX launched 60 Starlink satellites and Planet launched 12 Dove satellites for their respective constellations (in Q2 SpaceX launched 60 and Planet launched 20). As in Q2, these account for over half the satellites launched this quarter. Constellation operators dominating and dictating the statistics is a growing trend which is accelerating with the arrival of mega-constellations. Both Starlink and OneWeb, among others, are planning regular launches in 2020. Our database has 135 current or planned constellations (mainly small satellites), and 28 of these constellation operators have announced plans for more than 100 satellites; this will drastically increase the number of satellites launched. This year SpaceX and Planet constellations Starlink and Flock accounted for 32% and 8% of the total satellites launched this year respectively.

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APPLICATIONS

Applications are defined by the primary objective of the mission as categorised below:

• Communications: the objective of the mission is to transmit or receive signals to/from a user terminal or gateway; • Technology/ Scientific: the objective of the mission is to gather knowledge to better understand physical

phenomena or to test the functionality of the payload or equipment; • Earth observation/ Remote sensing: the objective of the mission is to provide imagery or data relating to the

Earth or its atmosphere.

Small Satellites Launched: by Application

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This quarter has seen 69 communication satellites launched, of which 60 belong to the Starlink constellation and the other 9 are shared between six organisations (all as part of constellations). This brings the number of small commu-nications satellites launched this year to 144, which is 38% of the total small satellites launched, meaning that by quantity they are the most popular application for small satellites this year. This is a shift from previous years as small communication satellites have accounted for no more than 18% (2012) of the total small satellites launched per year since 2010.

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Satelliteclassification Satellitesubclassification Associated wet mass range

Small Satellite < 500 kg Mini-satellite 100 kg - 500 kg Micro-satellite 10 kg – 100 kg Nano-satellite 1 kg – 10 kg Pico-satellite 0.1 kg – 1 kg

There were 41 Technology Demonstration/Scientific Research small satellites launched this quarter, showing the continued popularity in these missions which have historically had a consistent presence in the sector. 30 Earth Ob-servation/Remote Sensing satellites were launched in this quarter, 16 of these belonging to the large constellations of Planet and Spire.

A new type of satellite application was introduced this quarter - an entertainment satellite. The ALE-2 satellite and the accompanying Sky Canvas project will create the world first man made shooting stars in 2020. Although it will be sold as a terrestrial experience, the project will also be used a valuable tool for researching the atmosphere.

SIZE AND MASS

Most small satellites launched this quarter were in the mini-satellite category due to the 60 227kg Starlink satellites. This does not necessarily reflect the most popular size as the 39 nano satellites are being operated by 27 different organisations compared to only 6 organisations operating the 70 mini-satellites. 12 pico-satellites were launched including 6 that were procured by Alba Orbital using the PocketQube format that has not been launched since 2013. These were all technology demonstration or scientific research missions.

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Small Satellites Launched: by Size Catagory

Q4 2019 - PICOQ4 2019 - NANOQ4 2019 - MICROQ4 2019 - MINIHistorical - PICOHistorical - NANOHistorical - MICROHistorical - MINI

Small Satellites Launched: by Size Catagory

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HISTORICAL Q4 2019

ISSOtherPolarLaunch failureSSO

This quarter saw 75 satellites being launched into an unspecified orbit, a majority due to the Starlink satellite orbits. 181 satellites this year have been launched into an alternative orbit to the specified orbits used in this report (ISS, SSO or Polar) which only account for 48% of satellite orbits this quarter. 19 small satellites were launched to the ISS to be deployed later; these reached the ISS via a Cygnus and Dragon Spacecraft.

There have been no lanch failures for small satellites for this quarter.

Launch Injection Orbits

SIZE AND MASS

Note: Launch failure includes orbit failures whereby the satellites significantly missed their intended orbit to the detriment of the mission.

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LAUNCH ORGANISATION

This quarter shows the continued dominance of commercial small satellites with 73% of the satellites being operated by commercial organisations, bringing the yearly total to 65%. There were only 27 academic and 10 government run satellites launched this quarter and these organisations are showing a continued decline to their share in the market - the rise of commercial constellations playing a big role in this percentage decrease. Despite the percentage decrease, over the past decade the number of government and academic satellites has still risen, with 2019 being an exception.

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Small Satellites Launched: by Launch Organisation

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LAUNCH

Launch Vehicles: Number of Launches and Satellites Launched

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This quarter equalled the record of 15 launches involving small satellites in a quarter; 6 of these launches were completed by small launch vehicles (however only accounted for 20 out of the 140 small satellites launched). Small launch vehicles are emerging and will make a marked change in the number of launches as they are designed with fast lead times and low launch cadence in mind.

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This decade has seen the proliferation of small satellites, defined here as satellites under 500kg, and the development of a diverse and ever-growing portfolio of companies and organisations involved with the small satellite value chain. A total of 1680 small satellites have been successfully launched and deployed since 2010, only 8% of these came from the first three years of the decade, with 58% coming from the last three years!

Over the past decade small satellites have re-invented the way we use satellite technology. By lowering cost they have rapidly increased the accessibility of space, invited commercialisation and consequently heavily reduced the costs of satellite-based services. CubeSats have been a primary driver for this growth - although the CubeSat design was proposed in the 1990s it took until this decade for it to ignite the market. Prior to this decade CubeSat launches mainly came from universities or were for research applications, and only until a few years into this decade did the popularity explode with commercial entities adopting the technology. This commercial adoption of small satellites is what caused the vast increase in the use of small satellites. The private sector has quickly covered the whole life cycle of operating a satellite, providing complete solutions from research, manufacturing, launch, operations to analytics, and has subsequently transformed the small satellite landscape. This has meant that taking advantage of the potential of satellites - whether launching your own or using the services of others - has become much quicker, easier and cheaper over the decade for all types of organisations. The small satellite industry has completely transformed from the academic and government research missions at the beginning of the decade to the thriving commercial sector it is today.

This article aims to give an overview of the small satellite trends and statistics of the past decade, that are not shown in the main report, and provide insight into the events that caused these trends, as well as looking at the decade to come.

SMALL SATELLITES OVER THE DECADE

Introduction

Cumulative Number of Satellites Launched

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Small Satellite Statistics - Organisations

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582 different organisations (incl. collaborations) have operated satellites over the last decade.70% of these organisations have been operating satellites in the last three years.Planet has launched the most satellites this decade at 351.34% of satellites operated this decade have been from three US organisations: Planet with 351, SpaceX with 122, and Spire with 96. 2018 had the biggest range of organisations operating satellites, with 163 different organisations launching and operating their own small satellite. In 2010 and 2011, only 24 and 27 organisations operated small satellites.

Small Satellites Launched: by Organisations

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Small Satellites Launched: by Organisations Type

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Small Satellite Statistics - Organisations

Academic and government organisations covered 25% and 24% small satellites launched respectively, commercial organisations covered the other 51%. In the first four years only 11% of all small satellites launched were by commercial entities.In the last three years 61% of all small satellites launched were by commercial entities.2014 showed the biggest change in the organisation type involved: Commercial organisations went from launching 13% of the total small satellites launched in 2013 to 49% in 2014.81% of Commercial Satellites have come from the USA, 67% have come from Planet, Spire and SpaceX alone.

The types of and number of organisations involved with small satellites have completely transformed over the past decade. The accessible nature of small satellites attracts a wide range of organisations meaning they are not only the domain of governments and companies with big pockets. This is becoming more so apparent as each aspect of owning and operating a satellite is reducing in cost and becoming easier; this is demonstrated by the increasing number and diversity in organisations operating small satellites each year. Towards the beginning of the decade academic and government organisations were responsible for most small satellite launched, and the commercial viability of small satellites had not yet been discovered; 2014 marked the year of the commercialisation of the small satellite market. Planet launched 61 3U CubeSats in 2014, subsequently doubling the number of small commercial satellites launched that decade, and since then commercial small satellites have been the most prevalent. The commercial segment of small satellites is expected to continue growing with many organisations still just in their infancy.

Small Satellite Statistics - Launch Vehicles

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230 successful launches involving small satellites over the past decadeBoth 2018 and 2019 had the most launches, 38, involving small satellitesSpaceX has launched the most satellites, 313, ISRO has launched the second most, 312ISRO’s PSLV XL completed the biggest launch, 103 small satellites (+1 large satellite)25 different launch families (the broad family e.g. Falcon, Long March, Soyuz, not the sub-families) were involved with launching small satellites.

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Number of Small Satellites Launched by Country of Launch Family

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11 different countries/groups of countries have launch vehicles that have been used to launch small satellites in the last decadeUS companies (incl. Rocket Lab) launched 44% of all small satellites in the last decade even though the US launched 59% of all small satellites.Only 5 countries launched 98% of all small satellites and the top four launched 93%.48% of launches were completed by the top three launch families (Falcon, PSLV, Soyuz)Launch vehicles from China launched the highest proportion of their own nation’s satellites at 88%, closely followed by the USA at 86%. India’s launch vehicles launched the smallest proportion of their own satellites at 6%.

Figure 5

The launch vehicle market has evolved over the decade, especially in relation to the cost of launch, and has impacted the small satellite market significantly. NASA’s Space Shuttle retired in 2011, spelling an end to reusable launch vehicles at the time. This accolade was soon to be re-gained by SpaceX in December 2015 when it vertically landed and recovered an orbital first stage; subsequently they provide the cheapest launch costs-per-kg. The affordability of launch was also helped by the increased development in ridesharing with over 20 launches this decade launching more than 20 satellites; the first of these in November 2013. At the closing of the decade came the hints of a small launch vehicle boom (typically containing payloads under 1000kg) demonstrating the demand small satellites are creating. Rocket Lab has been the success story in this category; they have launched 47 satellites from 9 launches. China is also having success in this market - Chinese small launch vehicles have had 15 successful orbital launches across 6 different launch families. These small launch vehicles aim to have a fast launch cadence and low lead times, partnered with low costs and higher priority to capture the small satellite market needs.

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Small Satellite Statistics - Countries

Over the course of the decade 81 countries have launched a small satellite.The number of different countries launching satellites each year is increasing, and in the last three years at least 35 different countries launched satellites in each year.USA have launched the most satellites, being involved with 999 small satellite launches, and 59% of all small satellites launched in the decade.The top ten countries have been involved in launching 88% of all small satellites.South Korea, Japan and Germany have the highest proportion of academic organisations launching satellites, at 75%, 68% and 64% respectively.The UK is the second largest manufacturer of non-academic satellites, manufacturing over 100 satellites in the last four years.

SmallSatellitesLaunched:ByDifferentCountries

Small Satellites Launched: Map of Countries

Small Satellites Launched: By Top Countries

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Small Satellite Statistics – Applications

764 Technology Demonstration or Scientific Research small satellites have been launched over the past decade; it is the most prevalent application with 46% of all small satellite used for this purpose. Each year in the past decade over 30% of small satellites launched were for scientific research or technology demonstration purposesThere have been more small communications satellites launched in 2019 than all the previous years of the decade combined.

The types of payload onboard small satellites have changed throughout the decade. To begin, before the advent of small commercial satellites, technology demonstration and scientific research payloads accounted for 84% of all small satellites. In 2014, Earth Observation (EO) satellites took off with Planet launching 61 3U CubeSats and even without Planet the number of small EO satellites doubled compared to 2013. Planet continued to dominate the statistics and was joined by Spire, also launching 3U satellites, in 2015. The final two years showed the beginnings of a rise in communications satellites with 22 companies launching commercial communications satellites, led by SpaceX launching 122 satellites. The technology demonstration and scientific research payloads have been a steadfast presence in the sector, but they will not be able to keep up with the rising pace of the commercial sector and their Earth Observation and communications services.

Small Satellites Launched: By Application

Small satellites are being adopted by more and more countries; 81 countries have organisations that have used small satellites in the past decade. Most of these additions have been due to government or academic organisations rather than commercial organisations; only 26 countries have had commercial organisations operating small satellites this decade. Also, 20 of the 22 countries that have only launched one small satellite this decade launched a CubeSat, further demonstrating the influence CubeSats have had and how they facilitate access to space. The number of different countries operating small satellites each year has grown significantly from the 11 in 2010 to 40 in 2018. This decade has shown the global reach small satellites have and even though the market is still dominated by the big players there is a big increase in diversity and potential of many emergent nations.

Small Satellite Statistics - Countries

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The Next Decade

It is hard to predict what will happen over the course of the next decade. In 2010 it was difficult to see the rapid adoption of small satellites and the commercialisation of the sector. The plans for the major launchers of the year - Planet, Spire and SpaceX - had not yet been developed. However, the developments over the past decade gave a good glimpse at what there is to come in the next one.

There will continue to be an interest in using small satellites, particularly CubeSats, for research purposes, especially as the technology develops and the cost of launch decreases. The prospect of CubeSats being launched to the Moon and even Mars will come to fruition over the next decade as both Virgin Orbit and Rocket Lab already have plans to provide such capability.

Figure 8 shows the sharp rise of communications satellites towards the end of the year. There were 22 different commercial companies launching small communications satellites in 2018 and 2019, more than any previous year in the decade. These organisations are just in their infancy and have plans to launch many satellites as part of their constellations. There are also over 50 companies that are currently developing or planning small satellite communications constellations. OneWeb and SpaceX have very publicly started launching their communications constellations; they both have plans to launch 1000s of satellites over the next decade to provide internet from space. This is not just a phenomenon for communication satellites, there are over 130 companies planning satellite constellations. This decade will also show us how these companies plan to develop the ground segment for their projects, arguably a harder task if they really are planning on connecting the whole world. The rise of small satellite constellations is expected and will happen. This constellation boom has been a result of the development of small satellites along with the reduction of their costs, thus making small satellite constellations an economically viable business plan - Planet have led the way in demonstrating this.

Another development that is expected to shake up the small satellite industry is the rise of small launch vehicles; there are over 100 companies that have developed, are developing, or are planning to develop small launch vehicles. These small launch vehicles aim to supply the market with low lead time, fast cadence vehicles that provide greater choice of orbits while keeping costs low. This fierce competition for small launch vehicles, along with the promise of more rideshare missions for small satellites and increase in cargo missions to the space station, will further improve access to space for small satellites. The possibility of having satellites put up within weeks does not seem so far off for the next decade, two Kuaizhou rockets launched within 6 hours from the same launch pad in China this year, and we will find out whether rapid launches of satellites will create new innovations.

The two above mentioned developments - satellite constellations and small launch vehicles – are aspects of the industry with very high levels of competition, leading to the possibility of companies failing to achieve their ambitions. Vector and LeoSat are two prime examples of this; Vector, a small launch vehicle start-up, had over $100 million in funding yet went bankrupt in 2019 and LeoSat, a small satellite internet constellation start-up, had over $50 million in funding but had to shut down this year. There is likely to be more heavily invested companies over the next decade that will find the competition of these markets a struggle. These are just two examples of what will come in the next decade, there will be many more developments and innovations that will come in the 2020s.

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CONCLUSION

The small satellite expansion this decade has been largely testament to the uptake of CubeSats and the influence of the private sector who brought heavy innovation within the field. The private sector, through competition, has heavily facilitated the access to the market as well as exponentially fast-forwarding the development of technologies, especially in the miniaturisation of satellite technologies. This expansion was not only felt by small satellites, but by the space sector as a whole. Commercial companies over the decade have used small satellites to revolutionise how we view the world and it is now commonplace to use daily high-resolution satellites imagery to dictate terrestrial decision. Small satellites are now being used to re-invent internet connectivity, our connections will no longer be restricted by cables and government infrastructure budgets so even the sparsest developing countries can get high speed, low latency connectivity. This next decade will show how well their plans get executed. Even though it is tricky to predict what the small satellite environment will be by 2030s, the adoption by commercial companies and the increasing investment within the sector in the previous decade helps show us where the upcoming ventures are. We do know that the next decade will bring more innovation and, especially, even more competition and ideas into the world of small satellites, and the public view of satellites will make a marked shift from traditional to new space.

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Disclaimer: whilst every effort has been made to provide accurate and up to date information, we recognise that this might not always be the case. If any reader would like to contribute edits or suggestions to our reports, kindly email the team and we will make the amendments.

Q4

2019

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