small-scale review of coconuts
TRANSCRIPT
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Author:
Coconuts
Small-scale Review of Coconuts
Date: October 2008
Center for Agricultural Policy
Prosperity Initiative
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Coconuts
Small-scale Review of Coconuts
Short analysis of the coconut sector as regards demand,
competitiveness, impact and opportunities with the aim of helping to
eradicate poverty in Vietnam through market forces
October 2008
Supported by: The Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID); The Swiss Agency for
Development and Cooperation (SDC), Oxfam Hong Kong (OHK) and Oxfam America (OA).
Prepared by the Center for Agricultural Policy with Prosperity Initiative
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Chapter 1 Introduction
1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
PI / CAP approach to sector analysis
Overview of the coconut sector
Segments and study focus
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This is one of a series of small-scale studies carried out by the Center forAgricultural Policy* supported by Prosperity Initiative to identify opportunities
to assist in eradicating poverty in rural Vietnam through market forces
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
* The Center for Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a semi-autonomous center within the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agricultural andRural Development (IPSARD) within the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) of the Government of Viet Nam
While small in scope, these studies seeks to provide provisional answers to several questions:
Is there likely to be sufficient future demand, i.e. a domestic or international market with thewillingness and ability to spend on the relevant commodity?
Are there international benchmarks to support the case for industry investment in Vietnam asagainst other countries?
What other opportunities do there appear to be to enhance the competitiveness of the industry infavour of the target group of poorer people?
How is development of the industry likely to benefit poor people in the rural areas of Vietnam?
Why should a target poor group choose to make their livelihood from the commodity rather than anavailable alternative?
Does the sector look sufficiently promising in terms of potential size and impact on rural poverty tomerit more in-depth review/feasibility?
If the sector presents opportunities for a reduction in poverty, are CAP and PI best placed to take
this further or how should it otherwise be handled?
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Achieving poverty reduction at scale through market forces requires anassessment of the demand and competitiveness in the sector with potential tohave a positive impact on household incomes
Distribution of potential benefits
Pro-poor economic impact
Environmental impact
Social implications
Opportunities
Competi-tiveness
Impact Demand
Understanding market dynamics
Supply, demand, stocks and prices
Market outlook
Scale of production supportable byfuture demand
Benchmarking and analysis ofcompetitiveness
Current costs of production alongthe supply chain
Potential productivity gains, e.g.from technology, skills, sector-enabling environment, etc.
Potential for market access andincreased market share
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
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Chapter 1 Introduction
1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
PI / CAP approach to sector analysis
Overview of the coconut sector
Segments and study focus
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The Coconut Palm is a perennial plant(lasting about 40 60 years), and can begrown from its seed.
There are almost 4,000 species distributedamong 200 genera of coconuts in the world.
The varieties of coconuts are divided into 2main kinds: Tall and Dwarf.
Coconuts are adaptable to many soil types,and can be grown inland provided there isadequate drainage and pH between 5.0 and8.0, temperatures of 70o 80oF and highhumidity.
The time between planting and harvesting ofa coconut varies from 3 to 5 years.Coconuts can be harvested continuouslyuntil the tree grows old and dies
Several food uses or products exist forcoconut, such as copra, oil, and water.They are said to be very good for the healthand contain many vitamins such as: A, B1,B2, C
1Introd-uction
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Steps
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Coconut description
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Uses of coconuts
The white, fleshy part ofthe seed is edible andused fresh or dry
Coconut water is usedas a refreshing drink and
is also used in isotonicsports drinks
Fresh Coconut Processed coconut
Copra: the dried endospermor meat of coconut,commonly seen in cakes andcandies.
Desiccated coconut: is the
dried, white, particulate orshredded food productmanufactured from freshlypeeled coconut kernels. Itsused in food (preserve, icecream )
Coconut oil: is extracted bypassing shredded and heatedcopra through very powerfulpresses. Coconut oil is usedin cooking, manufacturing,cosmetic and skin treatment
Others
The coir: is used in ropes,mats, brushes, caulking boats
The leaves: are usedmaterials for baskets androofing thatch
Palmwood: is applied in theproduction of furniture,handicraft and constuction
The husk and shells can beused for fuel and are a good
source of charcoal
The roots: are used as a dye,a mouthwash, and a medicinefor dysentery
1Introd-uction
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The coconut can be divided into three main groups: Fresh coconut, Processedcoconut and Others. Nearly all parts of the coconut palm and nut are useful soit can have significant economic value
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Secondary and by-products are those which require one step of processingfrom the primary product (such as copra, oil coconut and desiccated coconut)to reach the desired end product. Examples include:
Coconut milk is a sweet, milky white cooking base derived from themeat of a mature coconut
Coconut cream is an infusion of shredded coconut and water.Coconut cream may also be made with milk instead of water to obtaina richer product
Coconut candy is the candy made from coconut milk and coconutcream (for example as produced in Ben Tre Province, Vietnam)
Coconut water is a natural product for drinking
Coconut oil is commonly used in cooking and many other waysincluding as a medicine and in cosmetics, or as a direct replacementfor diesel fuel and livestock feed.
Virgin coconut oil: Virgin coconut oil is derived from fresh coconuts.Its very natural and used for food.
Cooking oil coconut
Coconut milk
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Steps
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Chapter 1 Introduction
1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
PI / CAP approach to sector analysis
Overview of the coconut sector
Segments and study focus
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Segments and study focus
This study starts with a brief outline of global developments in the coconut sector, and thenexamines in more detail what is happening in the coconut sector in Vietnam.
It focuses on some of the main coconut-based products, namely:- Coconuts
- Copra- Coconut oil and copra meal- Virgin coconut oil- Desiccated coconut- Other utilizations
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Copra Coconut oil Virgin coconut oil Furniture
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1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Overall global demand for coconuts
* Some major coconut products
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and copra meal
Virgin coconut oil (VCO)
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Other utilizations
Chapter 2 Demand
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
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The total global area under coconut cultivation was stable at around 12 millionhectares during the period 1998 2006
1Introd-uction
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4Impact
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Source: Coconut statistical yearbook 2006, APCC
About 87% of coconut lands are in the member countries of the Asian and Pacific CoconutCommunity (APCC). Indonesia and the Philippines account for 32.4% and 27.5% of theworld coconut cultivation area.
11.9 11.7 11.7 11.812.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 11.8
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
World coconut area in mn ha
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42.5 40.9 43.046.3 47.4
49.1 48.7 50.7 49.8 50.451.8 52.2 52.9 54.3 53.4
56.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Million tons
World consumption
World consumption of coconuts increased from 42.54 million tons in 1990 toover 56 million tons in 2005
Source: FAOSTAT
CAGR:
1.85%
Most of the world coconut production is consumed in the country of production (domesticconsumption), and the quantity of imports and exports is insignificant.
The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of world coconut production and consumption since1990 are the same at 1.85%.
1Introd-uction
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4Impact
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Steps
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1994 1998 2002 2005
Others
Africa
Oceania
Europe
CentralAmerica
Latin America& Caribbean
South Asia
South EastAsia
Coconut consumption in 2005 was highest in Southeast Asia, followed bySouth Asia and the Latin America & Caribbean regions
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Source: FAOSTAT
3.17-0.11%
0.757.97%
1001.85 %Globalconsumption
65.422.14%
18.690.87%
7.503.57%
0.43-10.20%
0.062.18%
3.970.59%
Share in2005 (%)
CAGR(1990 - 2005)
Regions
Coconut consumption by region in 1,000 tons
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The main factors determining this increase in consumption were populationand per capita consumption. These had differing impacts across differentregions between 1995 and 2005
The main exception to the general increase in per capita consumption of coconuts has been Central America, where theCAGR was negative, with consumption decreasing to 242 tons in 2005 from 1,340 tons in 1995 for unclear reasons
Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT and World Bank data
1Introd-uction
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1.23
1.45
1.49
1.39
2.34
2.72
-11.17
-2.50
1.73
0.03
1.08
-0.20
2.16
-0.56
0.88
1.08
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
%
CAGR population CAGR consumption per capita
Africa
Oceania
Europe
Central America
Latin America& Caribbean
South Asia
South East Asia
World
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The top 10 coconut-consuming countries account for some 90% of worldconsumption. The 3 countries with the highest consumption are Indonesia,the Philippines and India, but Brazil and China have the highest growth rates
Top ten coconut consumption countries
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
1,000 tonsIndonesia
Philippines
India
Brazil
Thailand
Viet Nam
Sri Lanka
Papua New
Guinea
Malaysia
China
100
0.69
1.04
1.40
1.49
1.59
3.23
5.50
16.81
26.14
32.08
Share in2005 (%)
8.48
1.85World
-3.98
1.42
- 5.25
0.05
1.70
13.33
1.86
2.00
2.47
CAGR(%)
Country
Source: USDA
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Top ten coconut consumption countries
74.3
16.0
114.6
149.8
48.2
16.7
43.2
178.1
10.33.9
24.1
0.1
178.3
82.5
8.7
28.5
10.8
134.8
23.3
0.30
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Indon
esia
P
hilipp
ines
India
Braz
il
Thail
and
Viet
Nam
SriL
anka
PNew
Guine
a
Malay
siaCh
ina
Kg per capita 1995 2005
The Philippines has the highest coconut consumption per capita of 178.34 kgin 2005
Although India and China are both in the top ten coconut-consuming countries, this reflects the sizes oftheir populations. Their per capita coconut consumption is relatively low at 8.7 kg and 0.3 kg respectively
Source: USDANote: It is understood that these figures include both coconuts consumed by the
countrys population and coconuts used for processing and subsequently exported
1Introd-uction
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Steps
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5Opport-unities
1.05%
0.01%
-3.79%
-9.29%
-1.05%
-7.3%
15.7%-1.69%
3.71%
7.45%
CAGR(1995 2005)
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1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Overall global demand for coconuts
* Some major coconut products
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and copra meal
Virgin coconut oil (VCO)
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Other utilizations
Chapter 2 Demand
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Consumption
Price (Phil/Indo, CIF EU ports)
Source: USDA, UNCTAD
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Global copra domestic consumption has grown at 0.67% p.a. over the last 15years and in 2006 totaled 5.264 million tonnes
Copra is materialfor extracting oilso most copra isconsumed inproducingcountries as partof a primary
process
In general, copraconsumptionwas quite stablefrom 1990 2006although therewere fluctuationsin prices.
Volume
In thousands MTPrice
US $ per MT
CAGR:
0.67%
Total annual domestic consumption of copra in 1990 2006
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5392 5264
128
In thousand MT
International trade in copra is quite small since major coconut-growingcountries process their own production.
Total supply ExportDomestic
consumption
Total supply, export & dom. consumption in 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
In thousand MT
Total exported volume of copra*
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Source: USDA* Note: The reasons for the large decline in copra exports in 2000 have not been fully explored as part of this study
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The top ten copra-consuming countries accounted for 96 % of total globalconsumption in 2006. Vietnam, India, and Mexico had the highest CAGR forcopra consumption in the period 1990 2006
Top ten copra consumption countries
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1,000 MT
Philippines
Indonesia
India
Vietnam
Mexico
Papua NewGuinea
Thailand
Malaysia
Mozambique
Sri Lanka -5.510.84
100
0.89
1.02
1.32
1.77
3.91
4.32
13.36
24.99
43.95
Share in2005 (%)
1.14World
0.63
0.88
0.57
1.87
3.81
4.79
4.27
0.35
1.49
CAGR1990 - 2005
(%)Country
Source: USDA
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4Impact
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Steps
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The relationship between copra price and domestic demand in the Philippines(the highest consuming country) is unclear. From 1995-2006 the copra pricefluctuated but increased overall by a CAGR of 3.9%, while consumptionincreased more slowly at 0.8%
Impact of FOB copra price on demand in Philippines
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Copra consumption Price (P/MT, FOB)
In recent years,
some coconutgrowing countrieshave begun toimport copra. ThePhilippines
routinely importscopra from PapuaNew Guinea andfrom the SolomonIslands tomaintainthroughput in theircrushing plants.
Source: USDA , PCA
1Introd-uction
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4Impact
6Next
Steps
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1,000 MT
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1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Overall global demand for coconuts
* Some major coconut products
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and copra meal
Virgin coconut oil (VCO)
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Other utilizations
Chapter 2 Demand
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
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2840 2719 2667 28193172 3056
3360 3117 2934 29073385 3194 3172 3211 3334
3464 3485
16711484 1591
1602
16901649
18131730
13641769
1942
1620 1743 16601774 1701 1568
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Coconut oil Copra meal
Global CNO consumption increased from 2.840 million tonnes in 1990 to 3.485million tonnes in 2006 an average growth rate of 1.29% p.a., while copra mealconsumption decreased from 1.671 to 1.563 million tonnes
Source: USDANote: Coconut oil and copra meal are considered together because they are products of the same extraction process
1Introd-uction
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CAGR
:
+1.29
%
CAGR:-0.4%
Global dom. Consumption of coconut oil & copra meal
In thousand MT
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The importance of CNO in the total vegetable oil market has been declining: in2007 CNO accounted for only a 3.7% share of this market, and only 1.6% of thetotal increase in vegetable oil consumption of 42 million tonnes during theperiod 1998-2006
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SOYBEAN PALM
SUNFLOWERSEED RAPESEED
COTTONSEED PEANUT
COCONUT OLIVE
PALM KERNEL
Palm62.4%
Peanut
0.3%
Coconut
1.6%Olive
1.2%Palm
Kernel
5.9%
Cottonseed
3.9%
Rapeseseed
19.7%
Sunflower
seed
5.0%
Source: USDA
Global consumption of main oils in thousand MT Increase consumption between 1998 - 2006
Total increase = 42,145 thousand MT
Share of increase in percentage
1Introd-uction
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4Impact
6Next
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CNO and its nearest substitute palm kernel oil typically trade at a discountcompared to other oils. There has been a slight downward trend in CNO pricesover the last 3 decades, although all oils have experienced considerable price
volatility driven largely by supply fluctuations
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Crude palm oil Palm Kernel Oil Soyabean Oil
Sunflower Oil Rapeseed Oil Coconut Oil
Vegetable oil prices, 1977 - 2005
Price: CIF Rotterdam in current US$ per ton
Source: Oil World
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
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871 943998
12281479
1810
20541751
1826
1881
159175
185
125
118
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Feed WasteDom. Cons.
Food UseDom. Cons.
IndustrialDom. Cons. 42.44%3.36%
53.97%0.24%
3.59%-1.49%
Share in2006
CAGR90 06
Source: USDA
1Introd-uction
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Thousand MT
CNO is used for industry, food use and feed waste. Industrial use is increasingthe fastest at 3.4% p.a., while food use is quite stable but has the biggest sharein CNO consumption (54% in 2006). Feed waste is a small (3.6% in 2006) and
decreasing (-1.5% p.a.) part of the market
Recently, demand for CNO hasbeen driven not only by fooduses but also by the
oleochemical and biofuelindustries. This demand isprimary based on the chemicalproperties of coconut oil.
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Over the last decade, coconut usage for industrial purpose has remained quiteflat while its counterpart palm kernel oil has been on a rising trend
Source: USDA
1Introd-uction
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4Impact
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Oil, Coconut
Oil, Cottonseed
Oil, Olive
Oil, Palm
Oil, Palm Kernel
Oil, Peanut
Oil, Rapeseed
Oil, Soybean
Oil, Soybean (Local)
Oil, Sunflowerseed
CAGR98 07
Sharein 2007
4.54% 6.04%
-0.43% 0.21%
12.65% 33.25%
7.34% 12.64%
21.10% 0.11%
21.72% 20.65%
30.74% 17.93%
7.55% 0.94%
6.43% 2.45%
24.87% 5.78%
Industrial domestic consumption of vegetable oil in 000 MT
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In the oleochemical industry, CNO faces high competition from palm kerneloil which has similar ingredients structure and is also a main source of lauricfatty acid (C12) which is said to have health benefits
The palm tree also has a competitive advantage over the coconut tree as fruits from palmoil produce two distinctive oils: Palm oil provides mainly C16 and C18 oil and Palm kerneloil provides C12 and C14 oil.
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Source: Salmiah Ahmad, 2000
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Asia & Pacific is the biggest consuming region of CNO accounting for over40% in 2006 with a growth rate of 10.7% p.a. in 1998 2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Africa
America
Europe
Asia &Pacific
CNO consumption by region
In thousand MT
CAGR:10.68%
CAGR:
- 1.3%
CAGR:- 2.06%
CAGR:-0.64 %
In 2006 the Asia &Pacific Region
gained over 40% ofthe total marketshare of CNOconsumption
Consumption ofcoconut oil in Africa,America and Europedecreased from 1998to 2006 (with CAGRsof -1.3%, -2.06 and -
0.64% respectively.
Source: Coconut Statistical yearbook 2006, APCC
1Introd-uction
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4Impact
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Japan
Russia
Mexico
Vietnam
China
Indonesia
United States
Philippines
India
EU-27
In consumption, EU27 has maintained its position as the biggest consumer ofCNO followed by some Asia/Pacific countries and USA, but the highest growthrates have been in Russia, Vietnam, and China
-1.131.72
22.28*3.44
2.34.42
4.824.39
12.573.82
-4.18.6
0.75*22.01
3.913.45
2.5514.95
0.8613.4
CountryShare in2006 (%)
CAGR(19902006)
(%)
Source: USDA, CAGR of EU 27 (1999 2006) & Russia (1998 2006)* Note: EU figures for 1990, 1994 and 1998 not obtainable owing to problems with aggregating data from various European countries
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Top 10 countries of CNO consumption in 000 MT
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EU is also the largest destination for CNO imports, accounting for 1.043 milliontonnes in 2006 or just over 46% of global imports, although its recent growthrate is slower than other regions
994.9 1,042.7
635.0 524.4
249.0
628.7
10.3
30.7
18.9
16.9
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1998 2006
Pacific
Africa
Asia
America
EU 46.86%
23.57%
28.26%
0.46%
0.85%
2006Share
1.82% Total
0.59%
-2.36%
12.27%
-12.75%
1.45%
CAGR98-06
1,926.5
Imports of coconut oil in thousand MT
2,225.0
Source: Coconut statistical yearbook 2006, APCC
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Th t 12 i ti t i t f 86% f t t l CNO i t It i th
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The top 12 importing countries account for 86% of total CNO imports. It is thesecountries which have been driving growth in imports although the volumeimported by the two largest countries (USA and Germany) has been falling
Imports volume in selected countries in thousand MT
588.1493.9
351.4
326.0
240.8
284.2
184.0
166.217.3
91.072.8
39.1
56.148.9
29.772.3
39.133.3
63.6
72.1
62.0
43.1
57.2
10.3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1998 2006
Singapore
Korea
Spain
Italy
Japan
Begium - Lux
Rusia
China
Malaysia
Netherlands
Germany
USA
39
17
-10
14
-94
-25
43
154
94
74
34
30
Additional in thousand MT 1998 2006
Source: Coconut statistical yearbook 2006, APCC
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
In some key CNO consuming countries price appears to have a relatively
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In some key CNO consuming countries, price appears to have a relativelystrong impact on demand
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Cons um ption per capita Dom es tic price
Source: http://pca.da.gov.ph/sstories
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8Consumption per capita Domestic price
0
2
4
6
8
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
Consumption per capita Domestic pr ice
0.23 %-0.73%USA
2.78 %-0.90 %EU27
0.35%2.63 %Philippines
CAGR of cons.per capita
CAGR ofPrice
Country/Region
In selected importing andconsuming countries/regions, theprice of coconut oil appears to beinversely related to consumption,i.e. when the price goes up,consumption of coconut oil quicklygoes down. However, this needs tobe reviewed in more depth beforeclear conclusions can be drawn
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Kg/capita P/Kg
Philippines
USA
Kg/capita
USA/Kg
EU 27
Kg/capita
USA/Kg
Cons mption of CNO and copra in Vietnam gre rapidl in the 1990s b t has
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Consumption of CNO and copra in Vietnam grew rapidly in the 1990s, but hastailed off over the last few years while consumption of coconuts has dropped
Source: FAOSTAT, USDANote: The figures for production and imports from APCC and USDA are different
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000 tons
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1000 MT
Coconuts (1000 tons) Copra (1000 MT) Coconut oil (1000 MT)
CAGR:
5.11%
CAGR:
4.79%
CAGR:
0.05%
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1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Overall global demand for coconuts
* Some major coconut products
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and copra meal
Virgin coconut oil (VCO)
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Other utilizations
Chapter 2 Demand
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
CO
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Virgin coconut oil (VCO)
What is VCO?VCOis produced using fresh coconut kernel.
The main difference between VCO and coconut oil is thesource:
- Coconut oil comes from copra. The oil derived from copra mustbe refined, bleached and deodorized to be fit for humanconsumption.
- VCO is produced from fresh coconuts. There is no need for
refining, bleaching or deodorizing of VCO.
Major uses of VCO:- As a hair conditioner- As body oil or moisturizing lotion- As carrier oil for aromatherapy and massage oils- As a functional food- As a cooking oil
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
The Philippines is a major producer of VCO largely for domestic consumption;
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The Philippines is a major producer of VCO, largely for domestic consumption;other producers include Samoa, Indonesia and Thailand
1,612,323
553,500
406,580
91,618
19,810
ExportValue (USD)
0.13
0.06
0.14
0.10
0.09
(%) Export
363.525
299,823
82,987
18,980
2,006
Localconsumption
(MT)
1772004
1132003
19.12002
1.82001
4752005
Export (MT)Quantity
Production of VCO in the Philippines has increased dramatically. It is largelyconsumed domestically
Although exports account for less than 1% of total use, they increased very rapidlywith a CAGR of 300% from 2001 to 2005.
Source: PCA-MDD
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Philippines VCO Production and Export
United States is the largest VCO consumption country and imports 94% of
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1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
United States is the largest VCO consumption country and imports 94% ofVCO exports from the Philippines. The EU and other countries in Asia/Pacifichave become new destinations for Philippines VCO in recent years
2.9514Asia
93.90446USA2.5312EU
100.00475Total0.623Others
2005Share in2005 (%)
Country
Market demand ofPhilippines VCO
Price: VCO retails for between USD3.00-5.00 per litre Philippines VCO export price has been averaging
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40supported by
1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Overall global demand for coconuts
* Some major coconut products
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and copra meal
Virgin coconut oil (VCO)
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Other utilizations
Chapter 2 Demand
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Global consumption of DC grew at 1.54% p.a. in the period 1998 2006, and
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Global consumption of DC grew at 1.54% p.a. in the period 1998 2006, andtotal consumption in 2006 was 182,000 tonnes
161 162
185
150163
141156 161
182
1031
1148
791
701
999
842878
1051
915
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Consumption Price
Global DC consumption in thousand MT
Source: Coconut Statistical yearbook 2006, APCC
CAGR:
%1.54%
Price: FOB Sri Lanka in US$ per MT
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Main reasons forincrease in DC:
Because about 60 80% of global DCproduction is used inthe bakery andconfectioneryindustries, global DCconsumption dependson bakery demand in
the industries and theirassociated food safetyrequirements
DC prices havereduce lightly from1998 to 2006 affectingthe increase in DCdemand.
Europe is the biggest consuming region of DC, followed by America and Asia
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p gg g g , y& Pacific. In 2006 the EUs consumption of 88,558 tonnes accounted for 48.7%of the total with a CAGR of over 3.6% p.a. from 1998 to 2006
Asia &
Pacific
20.4%
America27.9%
EU
48.7%
Africa
3.1%
EU, 3.6%
America,
0.1%
Africa,
- 9.7%
Asia &
Pacific,
2.0%
-15 -10 -5 0 5
Share of DC consumption in 2006 CAGR of DC consumption from 1998 to 2006
1.54
In Europe: The U.K. consumed the highest quantity of DC, namely 12,884 tonnes in 2006 whichrepresented 14.5% of Europes total consumption of 88,558 tonnes and 7% of global consumption
In the Americas: the USA consumed 36,141tonnes in 2006, accounting for 71.4% of the Americas total and19.9% of global consumption
Source: Coconut Statistical yearbook 2006, APCC
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
The top ten DC consuming countries accounted for ~73% of the total in 2006.
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Belgium, Netherlands and Turkey had the highest CAGR from 1998 2006(although these figures include transshipments)
Source: Coconut Statistical yearbook 2006, APCC
38.96 37.57 36.14
4.04 6.516.02
10.47 9.16
15.346.18 7.29
14.93
18.08 11.2
12.68
7.58
5.15
8.65
5.05
8.13
7.62
7.91
5.02
7.49
1.38
1.26
7.14
6.3
2.84
6.21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1998 2002 2006
France
Turkey
Poland
Canada
Australia
UK
Netherlands
Germany
Belgium
USA
-0.18
22.86
-0.68
5.28
1.68
-4.34
11.67
4.89
18.8
-0.93
DC consumption in selected countries in thousand MT CAGR 1998 2006 in percent
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
The volume of imported DC has increased from 168,580 tonnes in 1990 to
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34.59 36.61 33.2446.46
76.3126.9
39.9442.49
51.7
57.67
43.91
46.92 44.73
46.03
45.77
11.55
18.1335.38
26.69
31.77
22.11
23.92
21.77
20.69
17.46
4.75
13.759.7
11.08
10.99
12.2515.66
12.53
12.07
14.638.5
10.16
13.39
19.29
10.1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1994 1998 2002 2005
Oceania
Africa
Other America
North Europe
Other Europe
North America
West Europe
Asia
Asia
28%
North
America
17%
Other
America
5%
Africa
5%
Oceania
4%
West EU
22%
Others
EU
12%
North EU
7%
Source: FAOSTAT, Overview the desiccated coconut sector - ACIAR
p265,380 tonnes in 2005 with a CAGR of 3.08%
The main importers, the USA andEU, account for 57.5% of the total.In 2005, USA imported 38,530tonnes of DC, which at 14.5% oftotal global imports makes it thebiggest consuming country of DCin the world
DC imports by region in thousand tonnes Share in 2005
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Chapter 2 Demand
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45supported by
1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Demand for coconut
* Some major coconut products
Coconuts
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and copra meal
Virgin coconut oil (VCO)
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Other utilizations
Chapter 2 Demand
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Other utilizations of coconut Overview
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In addition to the various uses of the coconut
fruits, all other parts of the coconut can bemanufactured into commercial products, includingthe coir and leaves. The coconut palm wood alsohas many potential uses such as:ConstructionFurnitureHandicrafts
CharcoalFibreChemicals
Supply of Coconut Wood:Indonesia, the Philippines and some Asia/Pacific
countries where there are large areas with senilepalms available to be cut up and processed intococonut wood products
Demand for Coconut Wood:The demand for coconut wood has increased for
housing, construction, furniture, novelties, etc., forboth domestic and export markets. Europe and theNorth American countries are good destinations forcoconut wood furniture and other small andinexpensive novelty items considering its attractiveclear-grained appearance and durability.
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Among coir-based products, the demand for imported fibre has increasedidl 218 800 i 2006 20 7% i 1996 EU i h i
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rapidly to 218,800 tonnes in 2006, or 20.7% p.a. since 1996. EU is the mainmarkets for those products
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Total import of selected coir-based coconut products in thousand MT
48.7 44.1 40.0 42.3
110.3122.9
185.9 183.8
218.8
30.6
22.2 13.0 15.1
18.218.2
18.3 14.2
15.3
31.3
26.036.8 37.0
37.3 36.1
45.5 50.7
44.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Coir Mats, Matting & Rugs
Coir Yarn
Coir Fibre
4.4 %
- 8.3%
20.7%
CAGR98 06
Source: Coconut Statistical Yearbook 2006, APCC
In the furniture and flooring markets, products based on coconut wood compete
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with many woods and other materials, but this market has been growing rapidly
Source: Mekong Bamboo, PI, BJC: Builders Joinery and Carpentry Products
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
400 12003100
6000 650010000
14000
27000
57000
7
10
88
7.5
55
5.5
3.5
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Chopstic
ks
Activ
atedca
rbon
Charco
al
Handicra
fts BJC
Blin
ds
Woo
dfloor
ing
Woodp
anels
Woo
dfun
iture
USD m
0
2
4
6
8
10
12%
Global markets 2006 (USD m) Global market growth (% pa)
Supply conditions may also favour an increase in demand for coconut wood
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Coconut wood has considerable potential in the future because:
In Asia the availability of preferred tropical hardwood has declineddramatically in recent years, especially in areas with high populationdensity
The extensive amounts of senile and unproductive coconut trees in theAsia/Pacific region will have to be cut and replaced by younger and high-yielding varieties thus releasing huge volumes of raw materials for use
Coconut wood processing technologies and appropriate machinery andequipment have been developed to enable efficient commercial operationfor coconut wood use
There are also significant prospects for income and employment
generation to be derived from increased utilization of coconut wood.
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
While the older average age of coconut trees in some countries may positionthem better for the supply of coconut wood than Vietnam, the size and recentgrowth rate of the furniture market in particular still makes it potentially attractive
3. Competitiveness
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50supported by
1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Some major coconut products
Local supply chain
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
VietnamThailand
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Area under coconut (ha): 132,700
-In ml nut equivalent: 681
-In Copra equivalent (MT): 151,300
Area under coconut (ha): 226,000
-In ml nut equivalent: 1,248
-In Copra equivalent (MT): 374,400
Malaysia
Area under coconut (ha): 115,000
-In ml nut equivalent: 402
-In Copra equivalent (MT): 80,000
India
Area under coconut (ha): 1,935,000
-In ml nut equivalent: 12,832
-In Copra equivalent (MT): 1,833,000
Papua New Guinea
Area under coconut (ha): 260,000
-In ml nut equivalent: 812-In Copra equivalent (MT): 162,600
Philippines
Area under coconut (ha): 3,243,000
-In ml nut equivalent: 12,600-In Copra equivalent (MT): 2,474,000
Sri Lanka
Area under coconut (ha): 395,000
-In ml nut equivalent: 2,784
-In Copra equivalent (MT): 525,383
Indonesia
Area under coconut (ha): 3,817,000
-In ml nut equivalent: 14,984
-In Copra equivalent (MT): 3,186,715
Selected countries of APCC the largest coconut-producing region in the world
World production of coconuts in 2006 in nut equivalent was around 55,569million nuts. APCC countries are the largest coconut producers with ~85% of
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million nuts. APCC countries are the largest coconut producers with 85% oftotal production, although this figure is barely growing
1.844.78
1000.47World
84.680.11
0.662.19
4.02-0.39
8.804.05
Share in2006 (%)
CAGR(1998 - 2006)
(%)Regions
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006 APCC
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Production of Coconuts in nut equivalent
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
mn Nuts
America
Africa
Other countries ofPacific
Others countries ofAsia
APCC countries
APCC includes 14 countries: F.S Micronesia, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Malaysia, Marshall Islands,Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vanuatu, Vietnam
In the decade to 2006, the total global coconut cultivation area decreased byaround 0.83% p.a., while production and yield increased steadily
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Total coconut cultivation area, production and yield
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
2000
4000
6000
Production (Mn nuts) Total Area (1,000 ha) Yield (Nuts/ha)
a ou d 0 83% p a , e p oduct o a d y e d c eased stead y
Total area has gone down to 11.7 million hectares in 2006 from 12.5 million hectares in 1998 becauseof senility, diseases, and weather, urbanization, and a switch to other more profitable crops.
Despite the reduction in total cultivation area, production has been increasing lightly with a CAGR of0.47% owing to a gradual increase in yield per hectare.
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
CAGR = 0.47%
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006 APCC
The top 10 coconut-producing countries account for about 90% of worldproduction; most of them are in the APCC region, but their growth rates differ
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Top ten coconut producers
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
mn nutsThailand
Brazil
Myanmar
Vietnam
Sri Lanka
Philippines
Papua New Guinea
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
production; most of them are in the APCC region, but their growth rates differ
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006 APCC
0.1123.09
CAGR(%)
Share in2006 (%)
1.192.25
19.916.27
5.840.81
-5.981.23
1.245.01
-0.222.67
-0.681.46
-4.880.72
0.9526.96
0.47100World
Coconut production accounts for a very small part of the total world oilseedmarket and its share has fallen from 2% in 1996 to 1% in 2006
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Share of world production of oilseeds in 2006
Pamlkernel
3%
Copra
1%Rapeseed
12%
Sunflower
seed
8%
Peanut
8%
Cottonseed
11%
Soybean
57%
Source: USDA and calculated
Coconut has grown at a slower pace than other
oilseeds because, as a perennial crop, itsproduction area cannot readily be reduced area intimes of excess and expanded in times of shortfall.
For production of biodiesel, coconut oil is notcompetitive with other oils, especially palm oil.Palm oil is a far more efficient producer of oil in
volume terms per hectare than other oils at 6,000litres/ha compared to coconut oils productivity of2,800 litres/ha.
For edible oil, soybean and sunflower oils arepromoted for consumption as poly-unsaturated oilsas a healthier alternative to coconut.
Share of world production of oilseeds in 1996
Soybean51%
Cottonseed13%
Peanut11%
Sunflowerseed9%
Rapeseed12%
Pamlkernel2%
Copra2%
100
2.74
1.34
11.827.72
7.99
11.06
57.32
Share in 2006 (%)
4.03Total
7.39Pam kernel
0.53Coconut
4.49Rapeseed2.61Sunflower seed
2.27Peanut
2.36Cottonseed
4.82Soybean
CAGR (%)Oilseeds
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
3. Competitiveness
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56supported by
1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Some major coconut products
o Copra
o Coconut oil (CNO) and meal
o Desiccated coconut (DC)
Local supply chain
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
World production of copra has decreased slightly since 1998. APCC countriesare the leaders in production accounting for 90% of the global total
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are the leaders in production accounting for 90% of the global total
World production of copra
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1,000 MT
-0.28 %
World exports of copra and copra price
0
100
200
300
400
500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1,000 MT
World Copra Price
Exports of copra account for only a small part of total copra production and the volume appears to beaffected by the export price
Copra can used for crushing oil, for copra meal, and for export. Some producers like to produce coconutoil and copra meal from copra or DC as an alternative to exporting copra, because of its higher value
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
The Philippines, Indonesia, and India are the largest producers of copraaccounting for 83% of world production
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Top ten copra production countries
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1,000 MT
Malaysia
Tanzania
Mozambique
Ivory Coast
Thailand
PN Guinea
Sri Lanka
India
Indonesia
Philippines
23.46-019
12.69-0.94
1.64-4.47
1.281.18
0.863.57
0.88-6.08
0.570.00
0.970.25
100-0.28World
47.140.53
1.541.66
Share in2006 (%)
CAGR (%)Countries
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Copra export has been decreasing at a CAGR of -3.51% since 1998 withThailand emerging as the largest single exporter
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59supported by
g g g g p
CNO production of Philippines and Indonesia
0
50
100
150
200
250
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1,000 MT
Others
Sri LankaPN Guinea
Indonesia
Share of world copra export in 2006
Indonesia26%Thailand
30%
Others
22%
Sri Lanka
13%
PNGuinea
9%
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
CAGR:-3.51%
In 2006, Thailand beganexporting copra andbecame a leading exporter
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
3. Competitiveness
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60supported by
1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Some major coconut products
o Copra
o Coconut oil (CNO) and meal
o Desiccated coconut (DC)
Local supply chain
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
World coconut oil production remained at more or less the same level from1998 to 2006, although exports have increased slightly
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61supported by
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Export volume (1,000 MT) Export price ($US/MT)
3150
2400
32403460
31003270
30403240 3100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Exports of CNO accounted for 69.2% of CNO production in 2006 and have beenincreasing in recent years even though the export price has fluctuated and declined
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
World CNO production in 000 MT Exports of CNO and its price
Source: USDA and APCC
The Philippines and Indonesia are the key producers and exporters of CNO
CNO d ti f Phili i I d i i 1 000 MT Sh i 2007
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62supported by
9951184
9591152 1066
860
548497
535
752520
720
283455
345
372
319 309
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Philippines Indonesia Others
Others
32%
Indonesi
a
29%
Philippin
es
39%
1305 1524 1273 1357 1352 1175
782757
758876 769 876
1010988
10071003 979 982
0
1000
2000
3000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: APCC and team calculations
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact 6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Others16%
Indonesia
38%
Philippines46%
CNO production of Philippines, Indonesia in 1,000 MT
CNO exports of Philippines, Indonesia in 1,000 MT
Share in 2007
CNOs share of the global vegetable oil market has fallen from 5% in 1996 to3% in 2006. Palm and soybean oil now dominate the market.
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Cottonseed
3%
Coconut
3%
Pamlkernel
4%
Peanut
4%
Olive2%
Sunflowerse
ed9%
Rapeseed
15%
Palm
31%
Soybean
29%
Coconut5%
Cottonseed5%
Pamlkernel
3%
Peanut
6%
Olive
3%
Sunflowerse
ed12%
Rapeseed
15%
Palm24%
Soybean27%
Source: USDA and calculated
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact 6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Recently, an increasing demand for CNO has been seen not only for food uses but alsoin the oleochemical and bio-fuel industries
In this market, coconut oil competes largely with palm kernel oil (PKO) since both oilshave a similar chemical composition.
Share of vegetable oil world production in 2006Share of vegetable oil world production in 1996
Copra meal is a by-product of extracting oil from copra, and is used as aningredient for animal feeds
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Production Exports
Source: USDA and APCC
Indonesia
40%
Others4%
Philippines56%
In 2006 the Philippines was the largest supplier of copra meal to the internationalmarket, with exports of 490,000 tonnes
Indonesia was the second largest supplier, exporting 290,000 tonnes
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact 6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
World copra meal production & exports in 1,000 MT Exports share in 2006
3. Competitiveness
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65supported by
1Introduction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact 6NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Some major coconut products
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and copra meal
Desiccated coconut
Local supply chain
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
World exports of DC in 2006 amounted to 315,000 tonnes, and grew at 4.5%(CAGR) from 1998 to 2006
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66supported by
Philippine
s, 44%
Singapore
, 10%
Indonesia,19%
Others,
8%
Malaysia,
3%Netherlan
ds, 3%Viet Nam,
2%
Sri Lanka,
8%
Belgium,
3%
222256
278242
278 284 278299
315
1031
1148
791
999
842878
1051
641
915
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Exports (1000MT) Price (US$/MT)
The Philippines and Indonesia have long been played the dominant role in the DC
market, accounting for some 44% and 19% of the global DC market respectively.
Other countries such as Sri Lanka (and Singapore, presumably as a transshipment/processing country) have also emerged as important DC suppliers in recent years.
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Global DC exports and their average prices DC export share by country in 2006
DC appears to generate more value than other coconut products, as illustratedby figures from the Philippines
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67supported by
1,020
73
544
443
93
Intl Price in 2006(USD/MT) (2)
126
4
65
85
74
Value (USD)(3) = (1)*(2)
0.800Husked nut
0.120Coconut oil
0.191Copra
0.124Desiccated coconut
0.050Copra cake meal
1,000 whole nuts(in MT ) (1)
Categories
Coconut conversion table and its value from 1,000 nuts
If exporting husked coconuts, the exporter loses the profit from theshell which can be made into charcoal, or activated carbon
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
3. Competitiveness
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68supported by
1Introduction
3
Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps
2Demand
5Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Some major coconut products
Local supply chain
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and meal
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
Coconuts are grown mainly in the south of Vietnam
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Major coconutcultivars in Viet Nam
Tall coconuts forprocessing:
Ta coconutDu coconut
Giy coconut
Bung coconut
Sp (Makapuno)
Dwarf coconuts fordrinking:
Xim coconut
Da coconut
Tam quan coconut
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps2
Demand
5Opport-unities
The areas of the country that cultivate coconuts are mainly in the Mekong RiverDelta (13 provinces ), which account for 69% of total coconut cultivation area
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70supported by
Ben Tre Province in theMekong River Delta hasthe largest planted area ofcoconuts in Vietnamaccounting for 28.2% of
the countrys total coconutcultivation area
In most recent years, theprices of coconut have
been increasing so thearea devoted to coconutcultivation in Ben Tre hasbeen recovering
Ben Tre PeoplesCommittee is planning toincrease cultivation overthe next few years
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
132,700
37,400
12,000
9,850
9,780
8,000
7,000
6,900
6,300
6,200
6,100
4,800
4,500
4,2009,670
Area (ha)2006
681,000
224,400
54,000
44,325
48,900
40,000
35,000
34,500
28,350
31,000
30.500
21,600
22,500
21,00033,425
Production(1,000 nuts)
Whole country
Ben Tre
Ca Mau
Can Tho
Tra Vinh
Kien Giang
Binh Dinh
Tien Giang
Bac Lieu
Quang Ngai
Dong Thap
Phu Yen
Long An
Vinh LongOthers
Province
100.00
28.18
9.04
7.42
7.37
6.02
5.27
5.20
4.74
4.67
4.60
3.62
3.40
3.177.28
Percent ofArea (%)
1Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6Next
Steps2
Demand
5Opport-unities
The total planted area of coconuts in Vietnam has decreased over the last 15years at a compound rate of -2.9% p.a.
Vi t t lti ti i th d h t
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71supported by
Vietnam coconut cultivation area in thousand hectares
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
While there have been many reasons for this decrease including better alternativecrops, disease and pests the most important cause appears to have been a suddendrop in the coconut price which led farmers to cut down trees to plant other crops
CAGR:
- 2.89%
1Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
Source: GSO
While coconut production has declined owing to low prices and the consequentreduction of coconut cultivation area, since 2002 production has been stable asthe price of coconut has climbed again
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72supported by
p g
1,1151,044 1,032
936
694 681 677 681799
2,100
780
2,000
2,500
3,200
800850
3,000
1,200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500Production (Mn nuts) Fresh coconut price (VND/nut)
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
CAGR:-6%
1Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
Vietnam coconut production and fresh coconut price
In recent years, the total area in Vietnam for coconut cultivation has dropped, butincreased for other perennials; the key causes are the fluctuation in coconutprices over the last 10 years and the rising price of other perennials
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73
supported by
Sources: GSO Vietnam and calculated
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
Not only the occurrence of specialized crop zones with high value such ascashew, sesame, groundnut and other fruit crops, but also the change in cropstructure have had a strong impact on the coconut cultivation area
Area of perennial crops in thousand Ha
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Tea
Coffee
Rupper
Pepper
Cashew
Coconut -2.07
8.78
17.38
5.83
8.69
5.42
CAGR (%)Crops
Rubber
A simplified diagram can illustrate the flow of Vietnamese coconut inputs andoutputs through the supply chain
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74
supported by
Agro-Materialretailers
Seed supply
center
Seed supplyhouseholds
Producers
PrivateProcessingenterprises
Localconsumers
Processingfacilities
Agro-Materialcenter
Tradingcompanies
Collectors
Wholesalers:
(TBD)
Exporting
In general after harvesting, the producers will sell there nuts to the collectors or selldirectly to wholesalers/processing facilities. The wholesalers also collect nuts fromcollectors then move to private processing enterprises or export directly
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
Summary of the activities in the coconut supply chain in Vietnam
ProcessingProcurementPlantation
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supported by
DC, candy, shell charcoal,burn coal, handicraft products,etc.
FruitsFruitsOutputs
- Processing facilities- Processing companies
- Households
- Production household- Hired workers
- Collectors/wholesalers- Processing facilities- Processing companies
- Productionhouseholds
- Hired workers
Actors
- Producing DC, candy, shellcharcoal, burned coal,handicraft products, etc.- Selling dried fruits
- Transporting and sellingfruits
- Planting- Caring
Activities
- Fruits- Shells- DC- Dippers
- Milk
- Fruits- Seedlings- Fertilizers- Chemicals
Inputs
ProcessingProcurementPlantation
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
ProcessingAction
The coconut supply chain in Ben Tre Province
ConsumptionTransportationPlantation Procurement
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supported by
ocess g
Local market
Exporting
Co su pt o
Actors
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
Source: Team data collection and analysis
Transportationt t
CollectorsHouseholds
84% of growersare directly
involved inproduction, 16%(being large-scaled producers)hire workers.
75% of harvestedproducts are soldto collectors/wholesalers whilethe remaining25% are sold toprocessors
After being procured,some coconut fruits
are sold directly to theprocurement shipsfrom China andThailand, as well as tomajor processors.
The traders sell 62%of the output procuredto processors and theremaining 38%directly to procuringforeign ships
Coconut fruit canbe used as a fresh
coconut orprocessed intoproducts like freshcopra, coconut oil,coconut shelldipper, charcoal,fiber thread, candy,
handicraft items,etc
Over 65% of smallprocessors sell their
product at home,while the other 35%transport on theirown by simplemeans like bicycles,motorbikes, trolleys,or even on their
backs
The producingfacilities and traderstransport productsby trucks, junks,trains or ferry.
Export: The foreigninvested and local
enterprises export theproducts directly orthrough intermediariesto China, Malaysia,Japan, Sri Lanka,Korea, etc.
Local market: Theproducts are sold tomajor traders in thecities, candy producersand consumers insideand outside the province(25 million fruits), etc.
ProductionsHouseholds
ProcessingFacilities
Processingcompanies
Wholesalers & trading
Processing facilities
3. Competitiveness
3 65
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supported by
1Introduction Competi-tiveness
4Impact NextSteps
2Demand Opport-unities
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Some major coconut products
Local supply chain
Copra Coconut oil (CNO) and copra
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
Copra production accounts for only a small part of copra equivalent, and thishas decreased dramatically from 68,000 tonnes in 1998 to 15,000 in 2006
Copra equivalent vs. copra production
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78
supported by
0
50
100
150
200
250
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1,000 MT 1,000 VND/MT
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Production
Copraequivalent
Local Copraprice
The remains of copra equivalent are used for fresh coconut or other industries which aremore efficient than for the oil industry, such as DC or candy
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
8.52
-5.28
-17.22
CAGR(%)
Categories
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
3. Competitiveness
3 65
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79
supported by
1Introduction Competi-tiveness
4Impact NextSteps
2Demand Opport-unities
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Some major coconut products
Local supply chain
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and meal
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
CNO production and export have also been declining in Vietnam. In 2006 theexport price was lower than the local price so no CNO was exported
Vietnam CNO production & export
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supported by
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Production Export Local price Export price
In the domestic
market, thedecrease inCNO productionwas affected byincreases inincome and by
other substitutevegetable oils
The CAGR ofCNO productionfrom 1998 to2006 was -
18.88%
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
CAGR:-18.88%
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2Demand
5
Opport-unities
p p
In MTFOB Price in 1,000VND/MT
3. Competitiveness
3 65
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81
supported by
1Introduction Competi-tiveness
4Impact NextSteps
2Demand Opport-unities
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2
Demand
5
Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Some major coconut products
Local supply chain
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and meal
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
DC was produced in Vietnam a last few years ago and production have beenincreasing both volume and price.
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supported by
Production and export of DC
7000
12000
25000
20000
8000 7000
13000
7000
612
706
787
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2003 2004 2005 2006
MT
Export price (FOB
US$/MT)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Production Export Export price
The DC export market of Vietnam is mainly China and some Middle Eastern countries
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC and FAOSTAT, field trip
It takes 7.5nuts toproduce 1kgof coconut oil
but only 2.5nuts toproduce 1kgof DC
The price of
DC is over1,000 USD/ton(2008) whilecoconut oil isabout 600USD/ton.
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2
Demand
5
Opport-unities
3. Competitiveness
3 65
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83
supported by
1Introduction Competi-tiveness
4Impact NextSteps
2Demand Opport-unities
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2
Demand
5
Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Local supply chain
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and meal
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Study on coconut competitive advantage of Vietnam
Both the production and cultivation area of coconuts in Vietnam are lowcompared to its main Asian competitors
2006Production of coconus in nut equivalent of some APCC countries
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84
supported by
Although Vietnam has the lowestproduction levels and area of thefour Asian countries shown here,
its average yield is higher thanboth Indonesia and the Philippines
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2
Demand
5
Opport-unities
5,200681132
5,6002,215395
4.20015,9343,817
4,00012,9663,311
Productivity(nuts/ha)
Production(mn nuts)
Area(1,000 ha)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Indonesia
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Coconut cultivation area of some APCC countries
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Coconut statistical year book 2006, APCC
Vietnam has dramatically increased its export of fresh coconuts which nowaccount for around 21% of world coconut exports
Vietnam
I 2006 Vi d 76
Exports of fresh coconut of some APCC countries
1 000 t
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85
supported by
In 2006, Vietnam exported 76thousand tons of fresh coconuts
Most of Vietnams coconuts areexported to China or Thailand
Source: FAOSTAT
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2
Demand
5
Opport-unities
The reasons that Vietnam has become the leading exporter of coconuts include:
-While the domestic price of coconuts is rising, it has not yet caught up with the China coconut importprice, so a large quantity of Vietnams coconuts are exported, especially to China and Thailand
-The CNO industry has been declining; the domestic copra price has been increasing while oil industryprofits have been lower over the last 10 years so people prefer to export rather than process nuts
525077
-150190200
304324319
204179231250
200020012002
2003200420052006
Domestic priceVietnamUS$/ton
World price(FOB Philippines)
US$/ton
country
Exports of fresh coconuts (US$/ton)
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1,000 tons
Indonesia Philippines
Viet Nam Sri Lanka
3. Competitiveness
1
3
C ti 4
6
N t2
5
O t
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86
supported by
1Introduction Competi-tiveness
4Impact NextSteps
Demand Opport-unities
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2
Demand
5
Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Local supply chain
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and meal
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Study on coconut competitive advantage of Vietnam
While Indonesia and Sri Lanka have increased their exports of copra, Vietnamand Philippines have nearly ceased exporting
Copra export of Vietnam and other countries
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87
supported by
Copra export of Vietnam and other countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
1,000 tons
Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Sri LankaPhilippines uses
most of their own
copra and imports
copra to extract
coconut oil and by-
products for value
added
Vietnams copraproduction has
declined, with
coconuts being used
to produce DC for
more value added
1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2
Demand
5
Opport-unities
Source: USDA
In case of the Philippines and Vietnam, the domestic price of copra is higherthan the export price and the two countries have reduced copra exports
Philippines: Domestic price vs Export price of copra
4084022006
Vietnam Domestic price VS Export price of copra
-
8/23/2019 Small-Scale Review of Coconuts
90/144
88
supported by1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2
Demand
5
Opport-unities
Source: Coconut statistical yearbook, APCC and USDA
229
175
287
325
489
408
408
314
202
266
300
450
414
402
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
US$/ton
Domestic Export
238
158
156
281
306
337
442
221
199
154
145
268
414
402
0 100 200 300 400 500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
US$/ton
Domestic Export
Sri Lanka :Domestic price VS Export price of copra
528
453
581
487
564
653
609
524
455.12
743.32
661.54
689.97
747.94
694
0 200 400 600 800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
US$/tonDomestic Export
Indonesia: Domestic price VS Export price ofcopra
160
160170
240
320
310
290
314
202
266
300
450
414
402
0 100 200 300 400 500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
US$/ton
Dom estic Ex port
3. Competitiveness
1I t d ti
3
Competi 4I t
6
Next2
D d
5
Opport
-
8/23/2019 Small-Scale Review of Coconuts
91/144
89
supported by
1Introduction Competi-tiveness
4Impact NextSteps
Demand Opport-unities
1
Introd-uction
3Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6Next
Steps
2
Demand
5Opport-unities
Global supply chain
Local supply chain
Competitiveness of Vietnam in international coconut market
Copra
Coconut oil (CNO) and meal
Desiccated coconut (DC)
Study on coconut competitive advantage of Vietnam
CNO t i f Vi t d APCC t i
Vietnam CNO has declined mainly because that it export price is lower than theDC export price, although it is higher than some other APCC countries
-
8/23/2019 Small-Scale Review of Coconuts
92/144
90
supported by1
Introd-uction
3
Competi-tiveness
4
Impact
6
NextSteps
2
Demand
5
Opport-unities
Source: USDA
CNO export price of Vietnam and some APCC countries
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
U