smr - nuclear inst
TRANSCRIPT
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
SMR: Opportunities and Challenges
SMR 2016, London, 8-9 June 2016
Dr. Jaejoo HA
Head, Division of Nuclear Development, OECD/NEA
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(1991) Small and Medium Reactors http://www.oecd-nea.org/brief/brief-07.html
o Volume I. Status and Prospects
o Volume II. Technical Supplement
(2011) Current Status, Technical Feasibility
and Economics Of Small Nuclear Reactors http://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/reports/2011/current-status-small-reactors.pdf
o Brief characterization of SMR available for commercial deployment
o Characterization of advanced SMR designs
o Small and modular reactors and their attributes
o Factors affecting the competitiveness of the SMR
o Assessment of the deployment potential of the various proposed SMR designs
o Safety designs of advanced SMR
o Licensing issues
(2016) SMRs: Market potential for near-term Deployment
Previous OECD/NEA work on SMRs
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Opportunities and Challenges of SMR
• Combating climate change
• Safety and Flexible Site Selection
• Less Financial and Project Risk than LWR
• Economics still in Question
• New and Competing Markets
• Flexible Non Electricity Applications
• Need New dimension in Licensing
• Other opportunities and challenged – Suitable to Small Industry and Infrastructure
– Challenges to build Effective Infrastructure in Newcomer or Small
– Utilizing Existing Transmission System
– Sustainability of Business
– Harmonizing with Renewables
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Combating climate change
(17%, 930GW, LWR, SMR, Gen IV) (12%, 380GW, LWR)
• IEA 2 Degrees C Scenario: Nuclear is Required to Provide the
Largest Contribution to Global Electricity in 2050
• SMR contribution to Electricity as well as Heat
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Safety and Flexible Site Selection
• Small Core, New Technologies Inherently Safer
• Easy Use of Seismic Isolator, Lower Cooling Water Usage
• Small Footprint Public Acceptance, Licensing ?
Pressurizer
Helical Steam Generator
X X X X X X
Loop Type
PWR
Core
Canned Motor Pump
mP
ower
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Smaller and Safer
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Less Financial and Project Risk than LWR
• Short Construction Time and Faster Return
– SMR: <3 yrs, Large NPP: >5yrs, Fossil: < 2 years
– Add (and pay for) Capacity as Demand dictates
• Low Initial Investment Still need Billions, and Still have
issues in Liberalized market CfD…
• Who to demonstrate this?
– Visible Near Term
• SMART in Saudi Arabia: 3yrs for Pre-Project Eng by 2018 Construction
• NuScale in INL: Licensing till 2020 Construction
– Others
• W, mPower, KLT, Carems… and Gen IV types
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Economics still in Question
• No real data yet, but only estimation
• What to compare? LWR? Fossil?
– Compete Non-nuclear in Small Grid
– Compete LWR in Large Grid: 10x100 vs 1x1000 ?
• Necessary for better Economics
– Series construction or Large order
– Factory Tested, Licensing…
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
SMR economics: LCOE estimates for PWR SMR
LCOE estimates for PWR SMRs using the top-down scaling-law methodology and
numerical estimates of various factors affecting the competitiveness of the SMR:
Capital costs for relevant NPP with large reactor (USD per kWe)
Economy of Scale (scaling law): Cost(P1)=Cost(P0)(P1/P0)n
P0,P1 - power, n - scaling law parameter This study: n=0.45-0.6
Other factors affecting the competitiveness of SMR:
Design simplification This study: 15% reduction
Shorter construction period Up to 20% reduction (depends on the interest rate) FOAK effect and multiple units: This study: FOAK +15%, Serial: 10-25% reduction Factory fabrication, learning: Up to 30-40% reduction Output of the calculation: Capital costs for SMR (USD/kWe)
Assumptions on the costs of O&M, fuel, and decommissioning
O&M +Fuel costs (per MWh) are assumed to be the same for SMRs than for large reactors:
O&M costs are expected to be smaller for SMRs (due to design simplification & passive systems)
Fuel costs are expected to be larger for SMRs (because of poor fuel utilization)
Estimates of LCOE for SMR (USD/MWh)
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
LCOE estimates for PWR SMR 2010 data, at 5% discount rate
3000-4500 USD/kWe
2-7 USD/MBtu
3600-5900 USD/kWe
7-11 USD/MBtu
1500-3000 USD/kWe
~5000 USD/kWe
5-12 USD/MBtu
~10000 USD/kWe
0 50 100 150
Large Nuclear 5×125 MW SMR 4×335 MW SMR
Coal Gas
Wind
Large Nuclear 2×300 MW SMR (Russia)
Coal Gas
Wind
Large Nuclear 90 MW SMR (Korea)
Coal Gas
Wind
2×35 MW barge SMR (Russia)
N. A
mer
ica
Eur
ope
Asi
a P
acifi
c
USD/MWh
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
SMR O&M and fuel costs For a 150-200 MWe SMR, the fuel costs are projected to be ~50% higher than for
large reactors because of smaller burnup of the fuel (because the core is small) and
all-in/all-out core management strategy
See Resource Requirements and Proliferation Risks Associated with Small Modular Reactors, A. Glaser et al. Nuclear Technology Vol. 184 Num 1 pp. 121-129, October 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
US
D /
MW
h
Power, MWe
O&M and Fuel costs of PWR SMRs vs. large
reactors
Data received by the NEA to date
Public declarations of some SMR
vendors
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
New and Competing Markets
• Targetting Two Markets
– Niche applications in remote or isolated areas (New Market to
Nuclear energy) Challenges in infrastructure development
– Direct competition for electricity production with large NPP and
other sources of power (Traditional Market) Challenges in
competing Economics
• Total Operating Power Plant Worldwide : 127,000 Units – Large(700MW) : 0.5 %, Medium : 3%, Small(<300MW) : 96.5%
– Fossil Plants : 58.1% (25% are older than 30 years) Ambitious SMR
Market?
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Replacement of retiring coal power plants of 50-300 MWe capacity
Source: US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 Annual Electric Generator Report
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Ca
pcity, M
We
US coal plants: Capacity vs commissioning date
Plants between 50 and 300 MWe in capacity and constructed before 1975:
Total capacity about 60 GWe
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Flexible Non Electricity Applications
• Nuclear Co-generation
– Desalination, District Heating, Process Heat,…
– SMRs are better in issues with flexible mode of operation regarding
safety, operational, licensing
– But, selling commercially both electricity and non-electric products
remains a challenge if/where fossil-based alternatives (gas) remain
cheap.
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Application Level of maturity Possible new projects &
recent activity
Challenges
District
Heating
Demonstrated at industrial
scale & currently operating
(Russia, Switzerland, …)
Option for new build in Finland
or Poland, feasibility studies in
France for coupling existing
NPPs to DH systems
Differences between
electricity & heat markets.
Economic assessment.
Desalination Tested at industrial scale in
the past (BN-350)
Small small scale
applications in NPPs to
supply fresh water to plant
Huge needs in the future but no
project in sight
Complexity and scale of
investments in water
infrastructures.
Public acceptance?
Long term?
High
temperature
process heat
Demonstrated at industrial
scale for low temp. steam
applications.
R&D HTR and cogeneration
NHDD project in Korea “clean
steel”
NGNP Alliance & EU’s NC2I
collaboration
Synthetic fuel production
Business model (nuclear
operator industrial
application operator)
Licensing, safety, public
acceptance, Long term
Hydrogen
production
Demonstrated at lab scale for
thermochemical cycles
(HTTR) and HTE
NHDD in Korea, on-going R&D
(Gen IV)
Hydrogen economy?
Competition with electric
mobility?
Nuclear hybrid
energy system
R&D on low carbon energy
systems involving nuclear &
variable renewables
Assessment of services
provided by nuclear (electricity,
storage, heat)
Economic assessment
Long term prospects
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Need New dimension in Licensing
• New challenge to specific SMR
– Multimodule, EPZ, Control Staffing, Security, Licensing fee,
Factory inspection,…
• Need more efficient licensing approach in addition to
technical matters International collaborative effort ?
– Technology neutral International safety certification
– Design specific International topical report : MDEP
– Issues still remain regarding Legal responsibility,
Intellectual proprietary, Site-specific requirement,
Ownership of decision,…..
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Other Opportunities and Challenges
• Suitable to Small Industry and Infrastructure
– May not need big heavy industries, Attractive Easier Localization
• Challenges to build Effective Infrastructure in Newcomer or Small
Market: Regulation, O&M, International Regime,…
• Utilizing Existing Transmission System
– 154kV Construction Cost: 1M$/km, Transmission Lost: 4.5%/100miles
• Sustainability of Business
– Need series of projects all the time to keep supply chain and economics
(see NNB, Projected cost by NEA)
– Market Competition by many SMR designs Some will fade out
• Harmonizing with Renewables
– Small power plant is more flexible to grid with large share of renewables
– Need further study on System Cost
© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Conclusions
• Is market ready? No. Subject to what we do
• Do we have preferred licensing scheme? No. Need Improvement
• Can compete in traditional market? Still question in economics
• Is electricity market stable and favorable? Still need to assure long
term arrangement
• Is financing issue resolved No, but Easier than before
• Is there enough supply chain? I think so. If not, can be created
• Is there player to take the risk of FOAK? Maybe
• What about site availability and public acceptance? Easier than LWR
• In conclusion, Economics will be the most important issue. Licensing,
Market size, Economics, Demonstrating successful FOAK deployment,
Industry involvement,… are all interrelated, and chicken and egg talk.
Someone have to play leading role.