soar 2005 past climates and current changes. past climate records instrumental 18 th – 21 st...
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SOAR 2005SOAR 2005
Past Climates and Current Changes
Past Climates and Current Changes
Past Climate RecordsPast Climate Records Instrumental
18th – 21st centuries with increasing accuracy Best in Europe, N. America, Australia Very little data over oceans, 70% of surface
Keening Curve: 1957 - present CO2 in air over Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Instrumental 18th – 21st centuries with increasing accuracy
Best in Europe, N. America, Australia Very little data over oceans, 70% of surface
Keening Curve: 1957 - present CO2 in air over Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Northern Summer: Plants absorb CO2
Northern Winter: CO2 builds up from decay.
This simple curve
started the whole damn controversy
!!
This simple curve
started the whole damn controversy
!!
Anecdotal Records Written records of planting, blooming,
harvests Frozen Dutch canals in art Archeological sites
Vikings in Greenland and Labrador
Anecdotal Records Written records of planting, blooming,
harvests Frozen Dutch canals in art Archeological sites
Vikings in Greenland and Labrador
Past Climate RecordsPast Climate Records
Past Climate RecordsPast Climate Records Proxy (indirect natural) Records
Tree rings Temperature, precipitation, fire, insects, other
stresses Depends on area, species level of stress
best near stress limit
Back to ~1000 years (bristlecone pine in CA) plus overlapping with structures
Proxy (indirect natural) Records Tree rings
Temperature, precipitation, fire, insects, other stresses
Depends on area, species level of stress best near stress limit
Back to ~1000 years (bristlecone pine in CA) plus overlapping with structures
Past Climate RecordsPast Climate Records Proxy (indirect natural) Records
Tree rings Fossil forests in the arctic … 60 million years old!
Proxy (indirect natural) Records Tree rings
Fossil forests in the arctic … 60 million years old!
Past ClimatesPast Climates Proxy (indirect natural) Records
Palynology (pollen) from sediments Accumulated in peat bogs & lakes Must be independently dated (cross-matched or
12C) Local influences complicate records
eg. Fire, flood, etc.
Types of pollen vary in uniqueness eg. Pine pollen everywhere … even ice caps!
Proxy (indirect natural) Records Palynology (pollen) from sediments
Accumulated in peat bogs & lakes Must be independently dated (cross-matched or
12C) Local influences complicate records
eg. Fire, flood, etc.
Types of pollen vary in uniqueness eg. Pine pollen everywhere … even ice caps!birchbirch
sprucespruce
shrubshrub
PinePinesedgesedge
oakoak
Past ClimatesPast Climates Collecting sediment samples in Canada Collecting sediment samples in Canada
Lake sediments
Lake sediments
Peatland coresPeatland cores
Dr. Steve Robinson,
SLU Geology
Dr. Steve Robinson,
SLU Geology
Past Climate RecordsPast Climate Records Proxy (indirect natural) Records
Ice Cores Alpine glaciers Greenland ice sheet Antarctic ice sheet
Proxy (indirect natural) Records Ice Cores
Alpine glaciers Greenland ice sheet Antarctic ice sheet
Greenland ice sheet at 10,400 feet = 1.98 milesGreenland ice sheet at
10,400 feet = 1.98 miles
Past Climate RecordsPast Climate Records Vostok & Greenland Ice Cores
Show annual* variations of atmosphere Bubbles of air contain old atmosphere
Variations in CO2, CH4 Give
Comparisons to today, Correlations with temperature
Ice crystals vary in composition Different Isotopes of Oxygen, Hydrogen, etc.
Dust Volcanos, Impacts, Winds, Organic Matter
Vostok & Greenland Ice Cores Show annual* variations of atmosphere
Bubbles of air contain old atmosphere Variations in CO2, CH4 Give
Comparisons to today, Correlations with temperature
Ice crystals vary in composition Different Isotopes of Oxygen, Hydrogen, etc.
Dust Volcanos, Impacts, Winds, Organic Matter
*Where annual layers unclear, chronology is reconstructed from other annual variables (eg. Berillium in
*Where annual layers unclear, chronology is reconstructed from other annual variables (eg. Berillium in
IsotopesIsotopes Number of neutrons in nuclei varies
eg. Oxygen 16 (16O) & 18 (18O)
18O heavier than 16O harder to evaporate Ice Cores
High ratio of 18O/16O for warm globe
Deep Sea Sediments High ratio of 18O/16O for cool globe
Number of neutrons in nuclei varies eg. Oxygen 16 (16O) & 18 (18O)
18O heavier than 16O harder to evaporate Ice Cores
High ratio of 18O/16O for warm globe
Deep Sea Sediments High ratio of 18O/16O for cool globe
18O18O16O16O8 protons
8 neutrons
8 protons 8
neutrons
8 protons 10
neutrons
8 protons 10
neutrons1 18O in
1000 16O1 18O in
1000 16O
Ice Core DataIce Core Data Isotopes indicate glaciations Isotopes indicate glaciations
Ice Core DataIce Core Data Annual Layers
Dating & N-S correlation
Isotopes Correlate with temperature Ice rich in heavy isotope
indicates a warmer ocean Trapped air
Atmospheric composition
Annual Layers Dating & N-S correlation
Isotopes Correlate with temperature Ice rich in heavy isotope
indicates a warmer ocean Trapped air
Atmospheric composition
18O/16O18O/16O
2H/1H2H/1H
Greenland ice core: arrows indicate summers.
Greenland ice core: arrows indicate summers.
GISP2 = Greenland GISP2 = Greenland Vostok = AntarcticaVostok = Antarctica
Ice Core DataIce Core Data Isotopes & Temperature
Difference from current gives temperatures in past
Isotopes & Temperature Difference from current
gives temperatures in past 18O/16O18O/16O
2H/1H2H/1H
GISP2 = Greenland GISP2 = Greenland Vostok = AntarcticaVostok = Antarctica
Ice Core DataIce Core Data Composition
Correlation of temperature (isotopes) with CO2 and CH4 content
Difference from 1996 over 150,000 yr
Composition Correlation of temperature (isotopes) with CO2 and CH4 content
Difference from 1996 over 150,000 yr
Mostly much cooler: Ice Ages!
Mostly much cooler: Ice Ages!
Global CO2Global CO2 CO2 from Ice Cores & Mauna
Loa
CO2 from Ice Cores & Mauna Loa
Carbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide Long-term sources: Volcanoes Long-term sinks: Chemical Weathering
H2O + CO2 H2CO3 H+ + HCO3
CaCO3 + H+ Ca + HCO3
Variable storage: Biosphere
plants absorb decay releases
Long-term sources: Volcanoes Long-term sinks: Chemical Weathering
H2O + CO2 H2CO3 H+ + HCO3
CaCO3 + H+ Ca + HCO3
Variable storage: Biosphere
plants absorb decay releases
Relative Temperature
Relative Temperature
CO2 Concentration
CO2 Concentration
Carbonic AcidCarbonic Acid Bicarbonate can combine with many compounds eg.
NaHCO3, Ca(HCO3)2
Bicarbonate can combine with many compounds eg.
NaHCO3, Ca(HCO3)2
Climate HistoryClimate History Crowley “Remembrance of Things Past”
Last 1000 Years
Crowley “Remembrance of Things Past”
Last 1000 Years
Seems to be Northern Hemisphere only.
Seems to be Northern Hemisphere only.
Temperature Changes from 1900 level.Temperature Changes from 1900 level.
Climate HistoryClimate History Last 18ky Last 18ky
Younger Dryas: Gulf Stream shutdown due to glacial meltwater flood down St.
Lawrence River.
Younger Dryas: Gulf Stream shutdown due to glacial meltwater flood down St.
Lawrence River.
Wisconsonian Glaciation
Wisconsonian Glaciation
Climate HistoryClimate History Last 150ky
mostly ice core data
Last 150ky mostly ice core data
Climate HistoryClimate History Last 140 ky Last 140 ky
Climate HistoryClimate History Last 800ky
Deep sea cores, 16O/18O
Last 800ky Deep sea cores, 16O/18O
HumansHumans
Repeating ice ages much cooler than
today!
Repeating ice ages much cooler than
today!
Climate HistoryClimate History Last 100My
Marine & Terrestrial data
Last 100My Marine & Terrestrial data
Much warmer
in Mesozoic
!
Much warmer
in Mesozoic
!
ice agesice ages
Dinosaurs
Dinosaurs
Chicxulub ImpactChicxulub Impact
Impact Craters on EarthImpact Craters on Earth Slowly erased by erosion Fractured rock, gravitational
variations indicate ancient craters
Slowly erased by erosion Fractured rock, gravitational
variations indicate ancient craters
World Impact CratersWorld Impact Craters
Chicxulub ImpactChicxulub Impact Demise of the dinosaurs? Demise of the dinosaurs?
http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/SIC/impact_cratering/Chicxulub/Chicx_title.html
Mapped by gravitational anomalies On Edge of Yucatan
Peninsula
Earth c. 65 million
BCE
ImpactsImpacts Cause of mass extinctions? Cause of climate change
Cause of mass extinctions? Cause of climate change
Variations in the AtmosphereVariations in the Atmosphere Atmospheric Oscillations
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Trade winds slacken, warm water sloshes east Rain in Peru, Drought in Oceania, Varies
elsewhere
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PCO) Latitude of warm pool varies Deflects positions of Jet Streams (storm tracks)
Atmospheric Oscillations El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Trade winds slacken, warm water sloshes east Rain in Peru, Drought in Oceania, Varies
elsewhere
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PCO) Latitude of warm pool varies Deflects positions of Jet Streams (storm tracks)
Variations in the AtmosphereVariations in the Atmosphere Atmospheric Oscillations
Northern Atlantic Oscillation Strength of westerlies between 40°N and 60°N Driven by Azores/Iceland pressure difference
Positive larger difference Recent positive phase unprecedented in last 500
years Negative smaller difference
Atmospheric Oscillations Northern Atlantic Oscillation
Strength of westerlies between 40°N and 60°N Driven by Azores/Iceland pressure difference
Positive larger difference Recent positive phase unprecedented in last 500
years Negative smaller difference
Positive Positive Negative Negative
Variations in the Atmosphere
Variations in the Atmosphere
NAO Known since 19th Century Positive
strong Gulf Stream warm winter & spring in
Scandinavia & E. US cool along east coast of
Canada & west Greenland
Negative – dry in E. N.Am, wet in S. Europe
NAO Known since 19th Century Positive
strong Gulf Stream warm winter & spring in
Scandinavia & E. US cool along east coast of
Canada & west Greenland
Negative – dry in E. N.Am, wet in S. Europe
Positive: Strong westerlies
Positive: Strong westerlies
Negative: Weak westerlies
Negative: Weak westerlies
CoolCool
Warm
Warm
Variations in the AtmosphereVariations in the Atmosphere Atlantic Oscillation
Relation to NAO? Varies over days
Mostly in positive mode recently
Atlantic Oscillation Relation to NAO? Varies over days
Mostly in positive mode recently
Positive: Strong circumarctic winds trap
cold air near pole
Positive: Strong circumarctic winds trap
cold air near pole
Negative: Weak winds allow polar air to move
south
Negative: Weak winds allow polar air to move
south
Variations in the AtmosphereVariations in the Atmosphere Atmosphere/Ocean Connections
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Greenland icecores show oscillations
80 & 180 year variations in N. Atlantic temperature
Driven by NAO? Positive NAO
strong westerlies across Labrador sea cool ocean strengthens Gulf Stream & Thermohaline Circulation (THC)
Negative NAO weak westerlies across Labrador sea keep ocean warmer
weakens Gulf Stream & THC
Atmosphere/Ocean Connections Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Greenland icecores show oscillations 80 & 180 year variations in N. Atlantic temperature
Driven by NAO? Positive NAO
strong westerlies across Labrador sea cool ocean strengthens Gulf Stream & Thermohaline Circulation (THC)
Negative NAO weak westerlies across Labrador sea keep ocean warmer
weakens Gulf Stream & THC
THC: Thermohaline CirculationTHC: Thermohaline Circulation Great Conveyor
Belt moving HEAT circuit ~ 2000 years
Great Conveyor Belt moving HEAT circuit ~ 2000 years
Variations in the AtmosphereVariations in the Atmosphere
Insolation Variations Solar brightness variations
sunspots & other stellar variations
Earth orbital variations other planets’ gravity vary Earth’s orbit
Solar system environmental variation moves through galactic environment
Insolation Variations Solar brightness variations
sunspots & other stellar variations
Earth orbital variations other planets’ gravity vary Earth’s orbit
Solar system environmental variation moves through galactic environment
Spaceship EarthSpaceship Earth Galactic Environment
Solar system passes through nebulae
Galactic Environment Solar system passes
through nebulae
Spaceship EarthSpaceship Earth Sun is a variable star
Solar constant ≈ 1370 W/m2 … varies stars evolve, luminosity varies early sun ~ 25% -30% dimmer than today
Sunspot Cycle 11 year number cycle 22 year polarity cycle Earth gets more energy from sun when sunspot
numbers are high.
Sun is a variable star Solar constant ≈ 1370 W/m2 … varies
stars evolve, luminosity varies early sun ~ 25% -30% dimmer than today
Sunspot Cycle 11 year number cycle 22 year polarity cycle Earth gets more energy from sun when sunspot
numbers are high.
The SunThe Sun
SunspotsSunspots Magnetic
Hernias Sun’s
equator rotates faster than poles
Magnetic Field wraps up, bulges up
Magnetic Hernias Sun’s
equator rotates faster than poles
Magnetic Field wraps up, bulges up
SunspotsSunspots Observed since 1611 (Johann Fabricius) Discovered
by Johann Fabricius
Observed by Galileo
Observed since 1611 (Johann Fabricius) Discovered
by Johann Fabricius
Observed by Galileo
Sol 04/09/04
SunspotsSunspots Number observed since 1611 Number observed since 1611
Regular 11-year cycleRegular 11-year cycle
Maunder MinimumMaunder Minimum
Associated with Little Ice Age Began due to solar cooling Continued due to ice albedo effect
Associated with Little Ice Age Began due to solar cooling Continued due to ice albedo effect
Maunder MinimumMaunder Minimum
Spaceship EarthSpaceship Earth Current Orbit moderates seasons
Northern Summer at Aphelion mostly land, less solar flux reduces heat
Southern Summer at Perihelion mostly water, more solar flux absorbed by oceans
Current Orbit moderates seasons Northern Summer at Aphelion
mostly land, less solar flux reduces heat
Southern Summer at Perihelion mostly water, more solar flux absorbed by oceans
Aphelion: 7/5/5 r = 152.1 Gm
Aphelion: 7/5/5 r = 152.1 Gm
Perihelion: 1/2/5 r = 147.1 Gm
Perihelion: 1/2/5 r = 147.1 Gm
Variations in Earth’s OrbitVariations in Earth’s Orbit Orbits characterized by
eccentricity (ovalness) inclination (axial tilt) precession (axial wobble)
All change due to gravitational influence of sun, moon & other planets Precession – 140 BCE by Hipparchus Eccentricity & Tilt
Back 100,000 years – 1843 by Leverrier Back 1 million years – 1904 by Pilgrim
Orbits characterized by eccentricity (ovalness) inclination (axial tilt) precession (axial wobble)
All change due to gravitational influence of sun, moon & other planets Precession – 140 BCE by Hipparchus Eccentricity & Tilt
Back 100,000 years – 1843 by Leverrier Back 1 million years – 1904 by Pilgrim
Milankovitch CyclesMilankovitch Cycles Insolation changes with orbital
variations Axial Tilt: 41,000 year cycle
Makes seasons more or less severe
Precession: 26,000 year cycle Changes season of perihelion
Now: perihelion in early January Southern summer when Earth closes to sun
Eccentricity: 100,000 year cycle Changes severity of seasons
distance to sun varies more through the year
Do Ice Ages correlate with orbit?
Insolation changes with orbital variations Axial Tilt: 41,000 year cycle
Makes seasons more or less severe
Precession: 26,000 year cycle Changes season of perihelion
Now: perihelion in early January Southern summer when Earth closes to sun
Eccentricity: 100,000 year cycle Changes severity of seasons
distance to sun varies more through the year
Do Ice Ages correlate with orbit?
Milankovitch Cycles
Milankovitch Cycles
Variation in Earth’s orbit
due to gravitational attractions of other planets
Variation in Earth’s orbit
due to gravitational attractions of other planets
EccentricityEccentricity 100,000 years
Currently 3% difference in distance 7% difference in insolation
At Maximum, 9% difference in distance 20% difference in insolation
100,000 years Currently 3% difference in distance
7% difference in insolation
At Maximum, 9% difference in distance 20% difference in insolation
PrecessionPrecession 23,000 years
Changes season of perihelion
Northern seasons much more severe more insolation on land masses in summer less insolation on land masses in winter
23,000 years Changes season of perihelion
Northern seasons much more severe more insolation on land masses in summer less insolation on land masses in winter
ObliquityObliquity 41,000 years
Axis Tilt Now: 23.5º Minimum: 22.5º
Tropics closer to equator, Circles closer to poles Poles get less summer insolation (glaciation?) Equator gets more insolation (shallow angles at
solstices)
Maximum 24.5º Tropics farther from equator, Circles farther from
poles Poles get more summer insolation (melting?) Equator gets less insolation (steeper angles at
solstices)
41,000 years Axis Tilt
Now: 23.5º Minimum: 22.5º
Tropics closer to equator, Circles closer to poles Poles get less summer insolation (glaciation?) Equator gets more insolation (shallow angles at
solstices)
Maximum 24.5º Tropics farther from equator, Circles farther from
poles Poles get more summer insolation (melting?) Equator gets less insolation (steeper angles at
solstices)
InsolationInsolation Varies with Milankovitch Cycles
Calculation for 65 N (Berger (1991))
Varies with Milankovitch Cycles Calculation for 65 N (Berger (1991))
9,000 years ago, ice age ended!9,000 years ago, ice age ended!
Some argue this is the cause of all climate change … so we can ignore our
CO2
Some argue this is the cause of all climate change … so we can ignore our
CO2
Predicting the FuturePredicting the Future Climate Systems
Atmosphere – changes over hours Oceans – surface changes over weeks – depths change over millennia Biosphere – changes annually to centuries Cryosphere – ice, glaciers permafrost, snow – various change scales Geosphere – volcanos, continental drif – long time scales, large changes
Climate Systems Atmosphere – changes over hours Oceans – surface changes over weeks – depths change over millennia Biosphere – changes annually to centuries Cryosphere – ice, glaciers permafrost, snow – various change scales Geosphere – volcanos, continental drif – long time scales, large changes
Modeling the ClimateModeling the Climate Systems & Feedbacks Among
Radiation insolation (incoming sunlight varies) reflection, absorption, re-radiation by surface, air
Water cycle evaportion, precipitation, runoff
Land surface soil moisture, vegitation, topography, snow & ice
Ocean surface currents, deep currents, chemistry
(salinity) Sea Ice
strongly affected by feedbacks
Systems & Feedbacks Among Radiation
insolation (incoming sunlight varies) reflection, absorption, re-radiation by surface, air
Water cycle evaportion, precipitation, runoff
Land surface soil moisture, vegitation, topography, snow & ice
Ocean surface currents, deep currents, chemistry
(salinity) Sea Ice
strongly affected by feedbacks
FeedbacksFeedbacks Positive
Any change leads to further change eg. Ball on a hill
Negative System always returns to equilibrium
eg. Ball in a bowl
Neutral System stays in new state
eg. Ball on a plain
Positive Any change leads to further change
eg. Ball on a hill
Negative System always returns to equilibrium
eg. Ball in a bowl
Neutral System stays in new state
eg. Ball on a plain
FeedbacksFeedbacks Greenhouse Effect: Warming
Good … makes Earth inhabitable!! Ground absorbs sunlight Ground heats (parking lots in summer) Ground radiates heat (Infrared, IR) Atmosphere absorbs (some) IR Atmosphere heats Feedback Mechanism: Evaporation
Clouds shade surface, cool it, warming stops? H2O vapor absorbs more IR warming
increases? Runaway Greenhouse … Venus!
Greenhouse Effect: Warming Good … makes Earth inhabitable!! Ground absorbs sunlight Ground heats (parking lots in summer) Ground radiates heat (Infrared, IR) Atmosphere absorbs (some) IR Atmosphere heats Feedback Mechanism: Evaporation
Clouds shade surface, cool it, warming stops? H2O vapor absorbs more IR warming
increases? Runaway Greenhouse … Venus!
FeedbacksFeedbacks Greenhouse Effect: Warming
Feedback Mechanism: Plant Growth More CO2 increases plant growth
Plants absorb CO2 (Keeling curve annual cycles)
CO2 is Reduced
BUT … why isn’t it working yet? More CO2 increases plant growth
More plant growth is good!! (Greening Earth Society of Western Fuels
Assn.)
Greenhouse Effect: Warming Feedback Mechanism: Plant Growth
More CO2 increases plant growth
Plants absorb CO2 (Keeling curve annual cycles)
CO2 is Reduced
BUT … why isn’t it working yet? More CO2 increases plant growth
More plant growth is good!! (Greening Earth Society of Western Fuels
Assn.)
FeedbacksFeedbacks Ice-Albedo Effect: Warming
Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts Feedback Mechanism: Evaporation
More water available More clouds & cooling, snow comes back H2O vapor absorbs more IR, more warming
“Hot House Earth”
Ice-Albedo Effect: Warming Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts Feedback Mechanism: Evaporation
More water available More clouds & cooling, snow comes back H2O vapor absorbs more IR, more warming
“Hot House Earth”
FeedbacksFeedbacks Ice-Albedo Effect: Cooling
Cooling causes more snow Snow reflects sunlight Ground cools, radiates little IR Atmosphere cools Snow doesn’t melt More precipitation falls as snow Feedback Mechanism: Ocean absorbs CO2
CO2 builds up over icy world, warming starts “Ice House Earth”
Ice-Albedo Effect: Cooling Cooling causes more snow Snow reflects sunlight Ground cools, radiates little IR Atmosphere cools Snow doesn’t melt More precipitation falls as snow Feedback Mechanism: Ocean absorbs CO2
CO2 builds up over icy world, warming starts “Ice House Earth”
IPCCIPCC Intergovenmental Panel on Climate
Change View of the bulk of the scientific community Computer models estimate feedbacks Reports every 5 years
2005 report in draft form (www.ipcc.ch)
“Hockey Stick” plot of temperature
Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change View of the bulk of the scientific community Computer models estimate feedbacks Reports every 5 years
2005 report in draft form (www.ipcc.ch)
“Hockey Stick” plot of temperature
Third Assessment Report 2001Third Assessment Report 2001
The SkepticsThe Skeptics Important voices!
Skeptics keep science honest Agreements
CO2 in atmosphere is increasing
CO2 levels correlate with temperature
Arguments Climate is driven exclusively by insolation
Milankovitch Cycles Sunspot Cycles
Too expensive to reduce CO2: Adapt Global warming is good!
Important voices! Skeptics keep science honest
Agreements CO2 in atmosphere is increasing
CO2 levels correlate with temperature
Arguments Climate is driven exclusively by insolation
Milankovitch Cycles Sunspot Cycles
Too expensive to reduce CO2: Adapt Global warming is good!
What to Do?What to Do? Complex system hard to model Experts don’t agree Could be global disaster
Complex system hard to model Experts don’t agree Could be global disaster
Ignore it?Ignore it?
Mitigate it? Kyoto + ?
Mitigate it? Kyoto + ?
Adapt?Adapt?