social consequences of transition vladimir gligorov
TRANSCRIPT
Content
• Risks and skills
• Flexibility and social safety nets
• Migration
• Inequality
• Public finances
80
100
120
140
160
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200
220
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GDP BY GDP RU GDP UA EMP BY EMP RU
EMP UA GDP NMS EMP NMS
GDP and employment growth in NMS and NIS Index 1995 = 100
Source: INDEUNIS research results
GDP, employment, productivity 2000-20062000 = 100
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Employment, LFSGDPProductivity
Source: wiiw Database
With approximately five years delay, developments similar to those in the NMS
Candidates countries (HR, MK, TR)
GDP, employment, productivity 2000-20062000 = 100
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Employment, reg.GDPProductivity
Source: wiiw Database
With approximately five years delay, developments similar to those in the NMS
Potential candidate countries (AL, BA, ME, RS)
Employment trends in SEE1990=100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
AL HR MK ME RS
BG RO
Unemployment in SEEunemployed in % of active population, average, LFS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 1999 2002 2005
Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia KosovoMacedonia Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria Romania
Long-term unemployment in SEEunemployed - 12 months and more, in % of total unemployed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HR AL BA MK RS ME Kosovo RO BG EU-15
2000 2005
Youth unemployment rates in SEE, LFS 15-24 years, in %
Notes: Note: Albania registration data.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1996 1999 2002 2005
Albania Croatia KosovoMacedonia Montenegro Serbia and Monten.Bulgaria Romania
EPL index, employment, unemployment in the SEE and peer countries
Country EPL index males females total reg. temp. coll. (1) (2) (1) (2)
Albania 2.6 2.1 3.0 2.8 61.4 12.9 38.3 18.2
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.6 1.8 3.1 3.3 42.3 28.9 20.8 34.9
Croatia 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.5 60.7 12.8 46.3 15.6
Macedonia 2.8 2.0 3.1 4.0 45.6 37.0 31.3 36.3
Serbia and Montenegro 2.9 2.2 3.1 3.8 54.6 15.1 40.6 17.2
Bulgaria 2.0 2.2 3.4 2.6 56.0 14.1 49.0 13.2
Romania 2.8 1.7 3.0 4.8 63.8 7.5 51.5 6.4
Slovenia 2.7 2.7 2.3 4.8 67.4 6.3 57.6 7.1
(1) - employment rate, (2) - unemployment rate, in per cent respectively. Sources: see above.
Inequality
• Diverse
• In Central Europe similar to average in the EU
• In others higher inequality
• Effects of market power
• Effects of crisis
20
25
30
35
40
45
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Gin
i coe
ffici
ent
Central Europe CIS
SEE BalticsPolynomisch (Transition countries)
Source: UNU-WIDER: World Inequality Database Version 2.0c, w iiw calculations.
Transition countries (polynomial trend)
Development of income inequality in Central Europe, Baltic States, SEE and CIS, 1989-2006unweighted averages of Gini coefficients (income based)
Income inequality in world regions unweighted averages of Gini coefficients (income based), 2003
SEE
CIS
East AsiaRussia
USAMiddle East
& North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan AfricaLatin America
Central Europe & Baltics
Western Europe
China
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Gin
i co
eff
icie
nt
Source: UNU-WIDER: World Inequality Database Version 2.0b , own calculations.
Distribution of income & source of income
Correlation of functional distribution and inequality in transition countriesCE & Baltics, SEE and CIS
y = -0.40x + 48.752
R = 0.27
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Compensation of employees, in % of GDP
Gin
i co
eff
icie
nt
2002
Sources: AMECO database, CIS STAT database, UNU-WIDER: World Inequality Database Version 2.0c .
y = -0.15x + 36.80
R2 = 0.44
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 20 40 60 80 100
coverage rate of collective agreements
Gin
i co
effi
cie
nt
2001
Correlation of coverage rate of collective agreements in transition countries, 2001
Sources: Schroeder (2004), UNU-WIDER: World Inequality Database Version 2.0a.
Central Europe, Baltics & BGR, ROU, HRV
Role of labour market institutions
Migration
• Very high outflow from some countries
• Significant numbers of refugees in some regions
• Brain drain and return migration
• Functionings and capabilities