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Social media and the travel
industry in 2030
e-Travel World
ITB, Berlin, March 2013
Albert Postma, professor of scenario planning
Suppose you fall into a deep sleep
and you awake in 2030…..
We simply do not know …
Checking social networking sites is more tempting than sex and cigarettes
Respondents from 18 to 85 accessed by smartphone
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2214772/Checking-Facebook-Twitter-tempting-sex-cigarettes-says-study.html
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rmh671xxtqly5qb/Belfast%20Media%20Festival%20Gerd%20Leonhard%20Public-web.pdf
Key trends in Social Media
(Vanessa Mieris, 2009)
Events / Phenomena
Patterns (Trends)
Structures (Drivers)
Drivers of tourism (I.Yeoman, 2008, 2012)
What drives the tourist in 2030 What drives tourism in 2030
Prosperity and affordability
Accessibility
Events
Cultural capital
Globalization and competition
Climate
• Wealth: in major generating markets
(shift of world economic order)
• Technology: change of technology,
change of consumers’ use of
information, change of tourism
distribution channels
• Resources:
o Food (food prices, hunger)
o Water (falling water tables)
o Environment (soil erosion,
temperature rise)
o Oil (peak oil)
Drivers of social media (J.Slevin, 2000)
Risk society:
• Globalisation
• De-traditionalisation
• Reflexivity
• Intensification
Uncertainties (expert interviews)
Tourism Social Media
Unstable European market
Emerging markets
Longevity of resources
Oil prices
Technological influence on
tourism industry
Border and visa regulations
Consumer behaviour
Privacy issues
Security issues
Information overkill – paradox of choice
Personal vs unpersonal service/
communication?
Reliability of info: Friends vs Professionals
Collective creativity / intelligence?
Regression? (mobbing, transparency,
addiction, crime) – cycle30
Information axis
Tra
vel axiis
Collective
information
devaluated
Collective
information
highly valued
Travel is experience
(emotion)
Centre of
expertise
Web
portal
Wiki
platform
Web
shop
Travel is efficient
(economic)
New responsibilities of travel industry
Empower the customer
Mediator in stead of authority
Develop new forms of dialogue
Develop strategic alliances
Take a cosmopolitan attitude
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