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A study finds that Facebook users may be the new votebank Indian politicians have to now worry about.
Social Media &Lok Sabha Elections
1 Elections to the Lok Sabha can be called any time anytime between now and the end of the Parliament's 5 year term on May 31,
2014 by when elections must be completed and a new Lok Sabha constituted. 2 Out of a total of 543 constituencies to which elections will be held3 XBRL or eXtensible business reporting language is an XML based information standard which is becoming ubiquitous around
the world. For more info visit www.xbrl.org
www.esocialsciences.com
Indian democracy is on the cusp of a
revolution led by social media users. At a
very conservative estimate, the fortunes of
contestants seeking election to the next Lok 1 2
Sabha from not less than 150 constituencies will
be determined by Facebook users making them
the newest Vote Bank with the power to shape
Indian politics.
The inevitability of a three way split of the
popular vote between the ruling UPA, the
principal opposition NDA and the emerging third
front formations increases the relevance of social
media users as a community, rendering unto
them an opportunity like never before to register
their presence.
A study carried out by the independent IRIS
Knowledge Foundation suggests that social
media usage is now sufficiently widespread to
have the power to influence the outcome of the
next elections to the Lok Sabha and consequently
government formation. The research was
conducted with data available in March 2013.
With Facebook emerging as the gorilla in the
social media space, the clout that Facebook users
enjoy is immense. The study has serious
implications, all of it positive, for Indian
democracy, for the way it empowers the citizens.
The study underscores the need for candidates to
chalk out a well thought out social media strategy
for their campaigns to be effective.
The success of social media in general and Facebook in particular in catalysing change will be predicated
on marrying the community which social media is able to create with relevant content to enhance 3
accountability. The relevance of XBRL in achieving this end cannot be emphasised enough as it allows
things to be mixed and matched in a manner hitherto unexplored. This explains the excitement in the USA
about the DATA Act which seeks to mandate the use of data standards such as XBRL. This promises to
usher in what we call c-governance or citizen led governance, the next logical step in the e governance
roadmap of countries worldwide.
The inspiration for the study is three fold.
Firstly, given the proximity of elections which
cannot be more than a year away, we felt it would
be the right time to identify broad trends and
recent events that may impact the elections.
There clear factors emerge in this context.
1. The Indian electorate has never been younger.
Between 2004 and 2009, the voting population
went up from 670 million to 720 million. The
number is expected to increase to 800 million by
the time the country goes to the polls, a greater
number of voters than ever before will be 25
years or younger.
Why the study
2. The last 5 years has also seen a greater
expression of disaffection in the government and
the political class by the citizenry who have taken
to the streets to protest. This was seen during the
fast by Anna Hazare, even if the protests did not
last for long. This happened during the infamous
4 The Internet and Mobile Association of India [IAMAI]
established in 2004 represents the online and mobile VAS
industry in India. With a membership of 125 Indian and
global companies, IAMAI is working to chart the growth
path for the digital industry in India. Website: www.iamai.in
rape incident in Delhi. Citizen activism is higher
than ever before and the young in India are
certainly showing a fair amount of restlessness
and unhappiness at the state of affairs. It is
unlikely that the voice that the citizenry found
would stay suppressed for long and it would be
interesting to see if it finds expression through
their vote at the hustings. It is significant to note
that online media generally and social media in
general have played a huge role in mobilizing
people for protests. The highest tribute that could
have been paid by way of recognizing this is the
setting up of a social media lab by Mumbai police
to track social media activity to anticipate
possible trouble spots and identify those they see
as trouble makers.
3. India is also rapidly urbanizing which is seen as
a sign of upward mobility. This has serious
consequences for the aspirations of the residents
and the extent to which they would go to realize
their objectives. Anecdotal evidence suggests
that an urbanized population is also an assertive
population, and prepared to take an aggressive
posture, and easily swayed given their access to
not just state controlled media but also alternate
points of view not available to them until now.
Secondly, a report entitled “Social Media in India –
2012” released by the Internet and Mobile 4
Association of India (IAMAI) in February 2013
throws up interesting findings.
1. The IAMAI report places the number of social
media users in Urban India at 62 Million (Mn) by
December 2012. The same report estimates that
the number of social media users will top 66
Cartoon in the Romanian political newspaper Aurora, during the 1926 parliamentary election. The People's' Party and its shadow partner, the National Liberal Party are represented as two rats with the caption : “The elector's seal -- death to all sorts of political rats”
www.esocialsciences.com
million by June 2013. It is logical therefore that
by the time elections to the 16th Lok Sabha are
held in mid 2014, the numbers would be even
higher, possibly closer to 80 million if the trend
holds. It is also likely that the 25 million strong
Indian NRI community who now have voting
rights would follow elections more closely even if
they are not able to be physically present in India
to be able to cast their vote, they can be a big
influencer too. After all, they are considerably
active on social media.
2. What the IAMAI report also highlights is that
Facebook is the leading website accessed by all
social media users, with as many as 97% of them
registering a presence on Facebook. The study
also finds that next to e mail, social media usage is
the biggest reason for people to connect to the
internet. It is also significant to note that people
use social media 7 days a week.
3. A third factor of significant relevance from the
point of view of this study is the revelation in the
IAMAI report that social media usage is spreading
fast in areas other than the top eight Indian
metros. One third of the social media users, as the
study reveals, are residents of smaller towns with
population of under 500000. Even more
significant is the fact that a quarter of social
media users are residents of towns with a
population less than 200000.
The third factor which prompted the study was
the impact of social media on the US Presidential
elections. In a piece in the MIT Technology 5Review entitled Facebook: The Real Presidential
swing State, writer David Talbot had predicted
that “the outcome of the 2012 campaign could
have less to do with grand vision than online data
analytics and peer to peer voter targeting.” As it
turned out, the Obama victory is credited to just
that. Obama's followers on Facebook and Twitter
5 August 15, 2012
www.esocialsciences.com
outstripped Romney's by a mile though a greater
percentage of Romney followers were “talking”.
Obama ran away with the election because he
used analytics to do peer to peer targeting. Which
is another source of inspiration for this research.
For peer to peer targeting to be effective, there
has to be a critical mass of social media users, the
numbers have to be there. But it is not the number
of fans or the number of likes and tweets that are
going to determine the probability of winning of a
certain candidate but the ability of the candidate
to engage with the electorate, by rising above the
media clutter and by trying to get his or her
message across to the voter directly. In today's
India, the number of social media users to achieve
this end has reached a tipping point. May be not in
every one of the 543 constituencies but certainly
in a significant number of them to warrant the
conclusion that they have the power to influence
elections and therefore government formation.
Barack Obama
The Methodology
T h e a p p r o a c h t o t h e s t u dy i s q u i t e
straightforward. We kept it simple.
1. We went by the data published by Facebook on
their website to help advertisers target their
audience better. We culled the data from this
page, constituency by constituency, one
constituency at a time. For instance, in the case of
the Thane Parliamentary constituency, we found
that there were over 400000 Facebook users who
were eligible to vote on the day the data was
pulled out. (On the day we wrote this report, we
found that the number has gone up to over
419580.) According to Facebook, these people
have disclosed that they live in Thane or in Navi
Mumbai which is part of the Thane Parliamentary
constituency.
2. Parallelly, we downloaded data from the
election commission to find out the number of
registered voters and the actual voter turnout in
the constituency during the last Lok Sabha
elections. We also looked at the margin of victory
of the winning candidate from the constituency.
(In the interest of maintaining consistency, we
ignored data that may have been thrown up in the
course of any by elections.)
Thus, in Thane Parliamentary constituency in
Maharashtra which we are using as an example
for this write up, we found that of the 1.8 million
registered voters, 750000 showed up to actually
vote. The winning candidate won by a relatively
narrow margin of 49000 votes.
(Writers note: We are stunned to see that within a
space of just three weeks when the data was first
culled to now when the report is being written up,
as many as 20000 new potential voters would
clamber on to Facebook, this can only accelerate as
elections approach and the noise level on Facebook
attracts new converts)
3. When viewed against the backdrop of 419000
Facebook users in this constituency, it is self
evident that Facebook users wield a tremendous
influence over the fortunes of the candidates in
this constituency especially in a tight race.
4. We went through this exercise for each and
every constituency in the country and classified
them in four ways – High Impact, Moderate
Impact, Low Impact and No Impact. The data has
been presented in the sheets that follow.
5 . I n o u r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , H i gh I m p a c t
constituencies are those where the number of
Facebook users are more than the margin of
victory of the winner in the last Lok Sabha
election, or where Facebook users account for
over 10% of the voting population. Our analysis
throws up 160 High Impact Constituencies out of
the total of 543 which will go to the polls.
6. The Medium Impact constituencies are those
where we have assumed that a Facebook user can
influence one other voter who may not be on
Facebook. Constituencies where the total number
of Facebook users is in excess of 5% of the voting
population. A total of 67 out of the 543
constituencies have been identified as being in
this category.
7. The rest of the constituencies have been
identified as Low Impact Constituencies or No
impact constituencies. The corresponding
numbers are 60 out of 543 in the Low Impact
category and the remaining 256 out of 543 as
being in the No Impact Category.
8. The detailed list is provided in the Appendices.
www.esocialsciences.com
www.esocialsciences.com
Limitations and caveats
1. Our approach can be dismissed for being
simple to the point of being simplistic. We have
used the number of Facebook users as an
indication of the clout of social media instead of
analyzing their behaviour to see if they are really
active and showing signs of wanting to make an
impact. However, we feel that this criticism may
not hold as the mere presence on Facebook
allows users access to alternate sources of
information and divergent points of view. Also
Facebook users, even when passive, turn out to be
listeners and there is enough evidence to suggest
that when the time for action arrives, they may act
in ways that could surprise everyone by the
unexpected nature of their reaction. Hence the
numbers are certainly a reasonable basis to form
conclusion. Without a doubt, a critical mass
exists.
2. We acknowledge that we may have understated
the impact of social media by not considering
other social media networks such as Twitter to
cite just one. If we had considered data from other
social media and added that too, the sphere of
influence of social media would be that much
greater. The IAMAI finding that over 97% social
media users are on Facebook gave us the
justification to confine this research to Facebook
alone.
3. Even so, the impact of Facebook is understated
in this study. A simple example will drive home
this point. Consider a constituency called Durg in
the state of Chattisgarh. According to the latest
Facebook data, the number of social media users
in Durg who are potential voters by virtue of
being residents of Durg and on account of being
more than 18 years old is 24780. (At the time we
culled the data, the number was 24320). Now
consider this. The industrial town of Bhilai is part
of the Durg constituency and boasts of 104220
people who make the electoral cut. In all of our
analysis, we have culled data only by the name of
the constituency and deliberately neglected to
include other places in the vicinity which too may
have some number of Facebook users. Thus it
would be fair to say that the number of Facebook
users in each constituency is understated. We
will produce an updated version of the study in
late 2013 with more refined data which includes
as many places in a constituency as we can
possibly identify.
4. Another reason for the understatement is what
we call the contiguous effect. For example,
Jadavpur and Diamond Harbour are both Lok
Sabha constituencies in the vicinity of Kolkata.
While data for each of these places throws up a
small number of Facebook users, the fact that
Jadavpur borders the Kolkata Dakshin
constituency and is part of Greater Kolkata means
that the right number to take into consideration
would be the aggregate number for Kolkata. Ditto
in the case of Diamond Harbor. Now, both of these
constituencies, are classified as Low or no Impact
constituencies which cannot be correct but in the
absence of more detailed data, we will stick to this
classification for now.
5. The simple arithmetic approach to identifying
the constituencies as high, medium and low
impact does not factor in voter behaviour on
account of any possible anti incumbency effect or
political realignments. In any event, since the
purpose of the study is limited to assessing
whether Facebook users will at all have an impact
if they so choose, we feel that the answer to this
question is obvious.
www.esocialsciences.com
Implications of the study for Contestants
1. No contestant can afford to ignore social media
in the next Lok Sabha election. Just as they have
budgets for traditional media spend and on the
ground activity, it is important that they have a
specific budget for social media activity.
2. When one sees the wins of the Congress and the
BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections, we find that 75
of the 206 seats won (36%) by the Congress and
43 of the 144 seats (30%) where they finished
second are counted among the High Impact
constituencies. In the case of the BJP, we find that
44 of the 116 seats (37%) they won and 50 of the
110 seats (46%) they lost fall in the high Impact
category. A well thought out social media
campaign will not only be about retaining
previously won seats but also about wresting
new seats. While there can be no two views on the
fact that social media usage is a largely urban
phenomenon, a rapidly urbanising India with
even small towns reporting a fairly active social
media usage offers pointers to how campaign
focus may need to be in order to gain new wins
while retaining the existing seats.
3. Unlike traditional campaigning which is
mandatorily required to come to a close 48 hours
before the polls, it is unlikely that the Election
Commission will be able to legislate and enforce
silence on social media networks as it would be
tantamount to stifling the voice of the people.
Which means that any development even in the
hours of polling can potentially influence voter
behaviour as the information will spread like wild
fire. What this also means is that savvy candidates
can harness the power of social media to unleash
a guerilla campaign on their opponents without
giving them the time to respond. We may see
some candidates take a hit and run strategy.
4. We believe that by mashing up this data with
social indicators of a constituency and personal
attributes of contestants, democracy will win. It is
one thing to share with a voting population,
aggregate data about those that they seek to elect
but making such data available in a granular form
could well trigger a different response from the
voter than ever before. For instance, we wonder
how a voter would react when faced with the
choice of electing an MP whose attendance record
in parliament is dismal or whose election
affidavit shows that his personal fortune has
increased manifold over the last 5 years or whose
comments display a huge level of insensitivity
towards women.
Long run impact
The impact of social media on elections
worldwide will be enhanced even further as
governments adopt “open data” policies – that is,
requirements for important government
information to be published online, in non-
proprietary formats such as XBRL that open it up
to search and analysis tools. Open data principles
also dictate that when governments publish a
particular piece of information – be it a spending
detail, a regulatory filing, proposed legislation, a
judicial opinion, or almost anything else – they
use stable Web addresses, known as Persistent
Uniform Resource Locators (PURLs), as much as
possible. PURLs allow the information to be
shared easily via Facebook and other social
networks. Facebook users can instantly share a
PURL with all their friends, and those users can
share it in turn with their own friends, because a
PURL functions as a permanent link to the
information. The combination of stable
publication via PURLs, easy analysis thanks to
XBRL and other formats, and wide dispersion via
Facebook sharing promises to make the online
democratic conversation more sophisticated and
more relevant than ever before.
This possibility is already reflected in legislative
proposals in the United States. Last April, the U.S.
House of Representatives passed the Digital
Accountability and Transparency Act, or DATA
Act, which would have required all U.S.
government spending information to be
published in an open format like XBRL at
permanent web addresses, with an explicit
requirement for the information to be made
available to be “freely shared by the public, such
as by social media.” Further action on the DATA
Act is expected in the U.S. Congress in the spring
of 2013. The Data Transparency Coalition, a U.S.
trade association of technology firms, has
become the primary private-sector advocate for
the DATA Act and similar legislation. One of the
Coalition's policy goals is to make all government
information shareable via Facebook and other
social networks. Here in India, IRIS Knowledge
Foundation, the publishers of this study are
seeking to do the same.
www.esocialsciences.com
APPENDIX
Appendix 1: High Impact Constituencies
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Assam
Assam
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Chandigarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Goa
Goa
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Hyderabad
Visakhapatnam
Vijayawada
Guntur
Rajahmundry
Kakinada
Tirupati
Nellore
Karimnagar
Narasaraopet
Chittoor
Arunachal West
Dibrugarh
Silchar
Tezpur
Pataliputra
Patna Sahib
Muzaffarpur
Buxar
Chandigarh
Raipur
Bilaspur
Korba
Durg
Dadar & Nagar Haveli
North Goa
South Goa
Surat
Rajkot
Bhavnagar
Jamnagar
Kheda
Valsad
Panchmahal
Junagadh
Bharuch
Banaskantha
Anand
Mahesana
Sabarkantha
Patan
Surendranagar
Ahmedabad East
Ahmedabad West
Asaduddin Owaisi
Daggubati Purandeswari
Lagadapati Raja Gopal
Rayapati Sambasiva Rao
Aruna Kumar Vundavalli
M.M.Pallamraju
Chinta Mohan
Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy
Ponnam Prabhakar
Modugula Venugopala Reddy
Naramalli Sivaprasad
Takam Sanjoy
Paban Singh Ghatowar
Kabindra Purkayastha
Joseph Toppo
Ranjan Prasad Yadav
Shatrughan Sinha
Captain Jai Narayan Prasad Nishad
Jagada Nand Singh
Pawan Kumar Bansal
Ramesh Bais
Dilip Singh Judev
Charan Das Mahant
Saroj Pandey
Patel Natubhai Gomanbhai
Shripad Yesso Naik
Cosme Francisco Caitano Sardinha
Shrimati Darshana Vikram Jardosh
Kuvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavalia
Rajendrasinh Ghanshyamsinh Rana (Rajubhai Rana)
Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Madam
Dinsha Patel
Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel
Chauhan Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh
Solanki Dinubhai Boghabhai
Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava
Gadhvi Mukeshkumar Bheiravdanji
Solanki Bharatbhai Madhavsinh
Patel Jayshreeben Kanubhai
Chauhan Mahendrasinh
Jagdish Thakor
Koli Patel Somabhai Gandalal
Harin Pathak
Dr. Solanki Kiritbhai Premajibhai
State Constituency
www.esocialsciences.com
Winner in 2009
Appendix 1: High Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Haryana
Haryana
Haryana
Haryana
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Ambala
Sirsa
Hisar
Mandi
Kangra
Srinagar
Jammu
Anantnag
Udhampur
Ranchi
Jamshedpur
Dhanbad
Singhbhum
Mysore
Dakshina Kannada
Gulbarga
Bellary
Davanagere
Udupi Chikmagalur
Tumkur
Uttara Kannada
Bangalore Rural
Bangalore North
Bangalore Central
Bangalore South
Thiruvananthapuram
Ernakulam
Palakkad
Kottayam
Thrissur
Alappuzha
Kollam
Malappuram
Kozhikode
Kannur
Indore
Bhopal
Gwalior
Jabalpur
Ujjain
Rewa
Satna
Dewas
Dhar
Pune
Nagpur
Inderjit Singh
Avtar Singh Bhadana
Selja
Ashok Tanwar
Bhajan Lal S/O Kheraj
Virbhadra Singh
Dr. Rajan Sushant
Farooq Abdullah
Madan Lal Sharma
Mirza Mehboob Beg
Ch. Lal Singh
Subodh Kant Sahay
Arjun Munda
Pashupati Nath Singh
Madhu Kora
Adagur H Vishwanath
Nalin Kumar Kateel
Mallikarjun Kharge
J. Shantha
G.M. Siddeswara
D.V.Sadananda Gowda
G.S. Basavaraj
Anantkumar Hegde
H.D.Kumaraswamy
D. B. Chandre Gowda
P. C. Mohan
Ananth Kumar
Shashi Tharoor
Prof. K V Thomas
M.B. Rajesh
Jose K.Mani (Karingozheckal)
P C Chacko
K.C Venugopal
N.Peethambarakurup
E. Ahamed
M.K. Raghavan
K. Sudhakaran
Sumitra Mahajan (Tai)
Kailash Joshi
Yashodhara Raje Scindia
Rakesh Singh
Guddu Premchand
Deoraj Singh Patel
Ganesh Singh
Sajjan Singh Verma
Gajendra Singh Rajukhedi
Kalmadi Suresh
Muttemwar Vilasrao Baburaoji
State Constituency Winner in 2009
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
Orissa
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Aurangabad
Nashik
Thane
Kolhapur
Kalyan
Latur
Dhule
Sangli
Amravati
Jalna
Ahmadnagar
Osmanabad
Chandrapur
Mumbai North
Mumbai North West
Mumbai North East
Mumbai North Central
Mumbai South Central
Mumbai South
Chandni Chowk
North East Delhi
East Delhi
New Delhi
North West Delhi
West Delhi
South Delhi
Sambalpur
Ludhiana
Amritsar
Hoshiarpur
Patiala
Gurdaspur
Jaipur
Jodhpur
Kota
Bikaner
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur
Coimbatore
Salem
Tirunelveli
Erode
Madurai
Viluppuram
Virudhunagar
Kancheepuram
Sivaganga
Chennai North
Chennai South
Chandrakant Khaire
Sameer Bhujbal
Dr.Sanjeev Ganesh Naik
Sadashivrao Dadoba Mandlik
Anand Prakash Paranjape
Awale Jaywant Gangaram
Sonawane Pratap Narayanrao
Pratik Prakashbapu Patil
Adsul Anandrao Vithoba
Danve Raosaheb Dadarao
Gandhi Dilipkumar Mansukhlal
Patil Padamsinha Bajirao
Ahir Hansaraj Gangaram
Sanjay Brijkishorlal Nirupam
Ad.Kamat Gurudas Vasant
Sanjay Dina Patil
Dutt Priya Sunil
Eknath M. Gaikwad
Deora Milind Murli
Kapil Sibal
Jai Prakash Agarwal
Sandeep Dikshit
Ajay Makan
Krishna Tirath
Mahabal Mishra
Ramesh Kumar
Amarnath Pradhan
Manish Tewari
Navjot Singh Sidhu
Santosh Chowdhary
Preneet Kaur
Partap Singh Bajwa
Mahesh Joshi
Chandresh Kumari
Ijyaraj Singh
Arjun Ram Meghwal
Namo Narain
Natarajan.P.R.
Semmalai S
Ramasubbu S
Ganeshamurthi.A.
Alagiri M.K
Anandan M
Manicka Tagore
Viswanathan.P
Chidambaram P
Elangovan T.K.S
Rajendran C
State Constituency
Appendix 1: High Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Winner in 2009
Appendix 1: High Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
Chennai Central
Lucknow
Kanpur
Gautam Buddh Nagar
Allahabad
Varanasi
Agra
Ghaziabad
Meerut
Bareilly
Aligarh
Moradabad
Muzaffarnagar
Chandauli
Kheri
Almora
Howrah
Balurghat
Kolkata Dakshin
Kolkata Uttar
Dayanidhi Maran
Lal Ji Tandon
Sri Prakash Jaiswal
Surendra Singh Nagar
Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh Alias Mani Ji
Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi
Dr. Ramshankar
Rajnath Singh
Rajendra Agarwal
Praveen Singh Aron
Raj Kumari Chauhan
Mohammed Azharuddin
Kadir Rana
Ramkishun
Zafar Ali Naqvi
Pradeep Tamta
Ambica Banerjee
Prasanta Kumar Majumdar
Mamata Banerjee
Sudip Bandyopadhyay
State Constituency Winner in 2009
Appendix 2: Moderate Impact Constituencies
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Assam
Assam
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Daman & Diu
Gujarat
Gujarat
Haryana
Haryana
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Puducherry
Punjab
Punjab
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Warangal
Kurnool
Eluru
Anantapur
Srikakulam
Machilipatnam
Gauhati
Jorhat
Karimganj
Bhagalpur
Katihar
Darbhanga
Madhubani
Daman & Diu
Vadodara
Gandhinagar
Karnal
Bhiwani-Mahendragarh
Rohtak
Shimla
Belgaum
Bijapur
Shimoga
Raichur
Mandya
Kasaragod
Ratlam
Shahdol
Mandsour
Solapur
Nanded
Akola
Jalgaon
Ratnagiri - Sindhudurg
Bhiwandi
Palghar
Shillong
Tura
Mizoram
Bhubaneswar
Berhampur
Balasore
Sundargarh
Puducherry
Sangrur
Ferozpur
Udaipur
Ajmer
Rajaiah Siricilla
Kotla Jaya Surya Prakash Reddy
Kavuri Sambasiva Rao
Anantha Venkata Rami Reddy
Killi Krupa Rani
Konakalla Narayana Rao
Bijoya Chakravarty
Bijoy Krishna Handique
Lalit Mohan Suklabaidya
Syed Shahnawaz Hussain
Nikhil Kumar Choudhary
Kirti Azad
Hukmadeo Narayan Yadav
Lalubhai Patel
Balkrishna Khanderao Shukla (Balu Shukla)
L.K.Advani
Arvind Kumar Sharma
Shruti Choudhry
Deepender Singh
Virender Kashyap
Angadi Suresh Channabasappa
Ramesh Chandappa Jigajinagi
B.Y. Raghavendra
Pakkirappa.S.
N Cheluvaraya Swamy @ Swamygowda
P Karunakaran
Kantilal Bhuria
Rajesh Nandini Singh
Meenakshi Natrajan
Shinde Sushilkumar Sambhajirao
Khatgaonkar Patil Bhaskarrao Bapurao
Dhotre Sanjay Shamrao
A.T. Nana Patil
Dr.Nilesh Narayan Rane
Taware Suresh Kashinath
Jadhav Baliram Sukur
Vincent H Pala
Agatha K. Sangma
C.L.Ruala
Prasanna Kumar Patasani
Sidhant Mohapatra
Srikant Kumar Jena
Hemanand Biswal
Narayanasamy
Vijay Inder Singla
Sher Singh Ghubaya
Raghuvir Singh Meena
Sachin Pilot
State Constituency Sitting MP
www.esocialsciences.com
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
Churu
Vellore
Kanniyakumari
Cuddalore
Tiruchirappalli
Karur
Gorakhpur
Jhansi
Saharanpur
Rampur
Azamgarh
Sitapur
Faizabad
Bijnor
Fatehpur Sikri
Mirzapur
Burdwan - Durgapur
Asansol
Purulia
Ram Singh Kaswan
Abdul Rahman
Helen Davidson J
Alagiri S
Kumar.P
Thambidurai.M
Adityanath
Pradeep Kumar Jain (Aditya)
Jagdish Singh Rana
Jaya Prada Nahata
Ramakant Yadav
Kaisar Jahan
Nirmal Khatri
Sanjay Singh Chauhan
Seema Upadhyay
Bal Kumar Patel
Sk. Saidul Haque
Bansa Gopal Chowdhury
Narahari Mahato
State Constituency
Appendix 2: Moderate Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Winner in 2009
Appendix 3: Low / No Impact Constituencies
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Nizamabad
Vizianagaram
Ongole
Mahbubnagar
Medak
Malkajgiri
Chelvella
Aruku
Adilabad
Peddapalle
Zahirabad
Secundrabad
Nagarkurnool
Nalgonda
Bhongir
Mahabubabad
Khammam
Anakapalli
Amalapuram
Narsapuram
Bapatla
Nandyal
Hindupur
Kadapa
Rajampet
Arunachal East
Lakhimpur
Barpeta
Autonomous District
Kaliabor
Dhubri
Kokrajhar
Mangaldoi
Nowgong
Gaya
Siwan
Valmiki Nagar
Ujiarpur
Karakat
Paschim Champaran
Purvi Champaran
Sheohar
Sitamarhi
Jhanjharpur
Supaul
Shri. Bishnu Pada Ray
Madhu Yaskhi Goud
Jhansi Lakshmi Botcha
Magunta Srinivasulu Reddy
K. Chandrasekhar Rao
Vijaya Shanthi .M
Sarvey Sathyanarayana
Jaipal Reddy Sudini
Kishore Chandra Suryanarayana Deo Vyricherla
Rathod Ramesh
Dr.G.Vivekanand
Suresh Kumar Shetkar
Anjan Kumar Yadav M
Dr. Manda Jagannath
Gutha Sukender Reddy
Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy
P. Balram
Nama Nageswara Rao
Sabbam Hari
G.V.Harsha Kumar
Bapiraju Kanumuru
Panabaka Lakshmi
S.P.Y.Reddy
Kristappa Nimmala
Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy
Annayyagari Sai Prathap
Ninong Ering
Ranee Narah
Ismail Hussain
Biren Singh Engti
Dip Gogoi
Badruddin Ajmal
Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary
Ramen Deka
Rajen Gohain
Hari Manjhi
Om Prakash Yadav
Baidyanath Prasad Mahto
Aswamedh Devi
Mahabali Singh
Dr. Sanjay Jaiswal
Radha Mohan Singh
Rama Devi
Arjun Roy
Mangani Lal Mandal
Vishwa Mohan Kumar
State Constituency
www.esocialsciences.com
Winner in 2009
Appendix 3: Low / No Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Haryana
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Araria
Kishanganj
Purnia
Madhepura
Vaishali
Gopalganj
Maharajganj
Saran
Hajipur
Samastipur
Begusarai
Khagaria
Banka
Munger
Nalanda
Arrah
Sasaram
Jahanabad
Aurangabad
Nawada
Jamui
Raigarh
Sarguja
Janjgir-Champa
Rajnandgaon
Mahasamund
Bastar
Kanker
Amreli
Porbandar
Bardoli
Kachchh
Dahod
Chhota Udaipur
Navsari
Kurukshetra
Sonipat
Hamirpur
Ladakh
Baramulla
Hazaribagh
Godda
Dumka
Rajmahal
Chatra
Kodarma
Giridih
Khunti
Pradeep Kumar Singh
Mohammad Asrarul Haque
Uday Singh Alias Pappu Singh
Sharad Yadav
Raghuvansh Prasad Singh
Purnmasi Ram
Uma Shanaker Singh
Lalu Prasad
Ram Sundar Das
Maheshwar Hazari
Dr. Monazir Hassan
Dinesh Chandra Yadav
Digvijay Singh
Rajiv Ranjan Singh Alias Lalan Singh
Kaushalendra Kumar
Meena Singh
Meira Kumar
Jagdish Sharma
Sushil Kumar Singh
Bhola Singh
Bhudeo Choudhary
Vishnu Deo Sai
Murarilal Singh
Shrimati Kamla Devi Patle
Madhusudan Yadav
Chandulal Sahu (Chandu Bhaiya)
Baliram Kashyap
Sohan Potai
Kachhadia Naranbhai
Radadiya Vitthalbhai Hansrajbhai
Chaudhari Tusharbhai Amrasinhbhai
Jat Poonamben Veljibhai
Dr. Prabha Kishor Taviad
Rathwa Ramsingbhai Patalbhai
C. R. Patil
Naveen Jindal
Jitender Singh
Anurag Singh Thakur
Hassan Khan
Sharief Ud Din Shariq
Yashwant Sinha
Nishikant Dubey
Shibu Soren
Devidhan Besra
Inder Singh Namdhari
Babulal Marandi
Ravindra Kumar Pandey
Karia Munda
State Constituency Winner in 2009
Appendix 3: Low / No Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Lakshadweep
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Lohardaga
Palamau
Bidar
Bagalkot
Dharwad
Chamarajanagar
Chikkodi
Koppal
Haveri
Hassan
Chitradurga
Chikkballapur
Kolar
Mavelikkara
Vadakara
Alathur
Chalakudy
Pathanamthitta
Attingal
Wayanad
Ponnani
Idukki
Lakshadweep
Sagar
Hoshangabad
Khandwa
Balaghat
Khargone
Morena
Bhind
Guna
Tikamgarh
Damoh
Khajuraho
Sidhi
Mandla
Chhindwara
Vidisha
Rajgarh
Betul
Yavatmal-Washim
Parbhani
Wardha
Maval
Nandurbar
Raver
Buldhana
Ramtek
Sudarshan Bhagat
Kameshwar Baitha
N.Dharam Singh
Gaddigoudar P.C.
Pralhad Joshi
R.Dhruvanarayana
Katti Ramesh Vishwanath
Shivaramagouda Shivanagouda
Udasi Shivkumar Chanabasappa
H. D. Devegowda
Janardhana Swamy
M.Veerappa Moily
K.H.Muniyappa
Kodikkunnil Suresh
Mullappally Ramachandran
P.K Biju
K.P. Dhanapalan
Anto Antony Punnathaniyil
Adv. A Sampath
M.I. Shanavas
E.T. Muhammed Basheer
Adv. P.T Thomas
Hamdullah Sayeed
Bhupendra Singh
Uday Pratap Singh
Arun Subhashchandra Yadav
K. D. Deshmukh
Makansingh Solanki (Babuji)
Narendra Singh Tomar
Ashok Argal
Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia
Virendra Kumar
Shivraj Bhaiya
Jeetendra Singh Bundela
Govind Prasad Mishra
Basori Singh Masram
Kamal Nath
Sushma Swaraj
Narayansingh Amlabe
Jyoti Dhurve
Bhavana Gawali (Patil)
Adv. Dudhgaonkar Ganeshrao Nagorao
Datta Meghe
Babar Gajanan Dharmshi
Gavit Manikrao Hodlya
Haribhau Madhav Jawale
Jadhav Prataprao Ganpatrao
Wasnik Mukul Balkrishna
State Constituency Winner in 2009
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Manipur
Manipur
Nagaland
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Bhandara - Gondiya
Gadchiroli-Chimur
Hingoli
Dindori
Raigad
Baramati
Shirur
Shirdi
Beed
Madha
Satara
Hatkanangle
Inner Manipur
Outer Manipur
Nagaland
Cuttack
Bargarh
Keonjhar
Mayurbhanj
Bhadrak
Jajpur
Dhenkanal
Bolangir
Kalahandi
Nabarangpur
Kandhamal
Kendrapara
Jagatsinghpur
Puri
Aska
Koraput
Faridkot
Fatehgarh Sahib
Khadoor Sahib
Anandpur Sahib
Jalandhar
Bathinda
Bhilwara
Ganganagar
Sikar
Jhunjhunu
Chittorgarh
Jaipur Rural
Alwar
Bharatpur
Karauli-Dholpur
Dausa
Nagaur
Patel Praful Manoharbhai
Kowase Marotrao Sainuji
Subhash Bapurao Wankhede
Chavan Harishchandra Deoram
Anant Geete
Supriya Sule
Adhalrao Shivaji Dattatray
Wakchaure Bhausaheb Rajaram
Munde Gopinathrao Pandurang
Pawar Sharadchandra Govindrao
Bhonsle Shrimant Chh. Udyanraje Pratapsinhmaharaj
Shetti Raju Alias Devappa Anna
Dr. Thokchom Meinya
Thangso Baite
C.M. Chang
Bhartruhari Mahtab
Sanjay Bhoi
Yashbant Narayan Singh Laguri
Laxman Tudu
Arjun Charan Sethi
Mohan Jena
Tathagata Satpathy
Kalikesh Narayan Singh Deo
Bhakta Charan Das
Pradeep Kumar Majhi
Rudramadhab Ray
Baijayant Panda
Bibhu Prasad Tarai
Pinaki Misra
Nityananda Pradhan
Jayaram Pangi
Paramjit Kaur Gulshan
Sukhdev Singh
Dr. Rattan Singh Ajnala
Ravneet Singh
Mohinder Singh Kaypee
Harsimrat Kaur Badal
Dr. C. P. Joshi
Bharat Ram Meghwal
Mahadev Singh
Sheesh Ram Ola
(Dr.)Girija Vyas
Lal Chand Kataria
Jitendra Singh
Ratan Singh
Khiladi Lal Bairwa
Kirodi Lal
Dr. Jyoti Mirdha
State Constituency
Appendix 3: Low / No Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Winner in 2009
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Pali
Barmer
Jalore
Banswara
Rajsamand
Jhalawar-Baran
Sikkim
Thanjavur
Dindigul
Thoothukkudi
Namakkal
Theni
Arani
Kallakurichi
Tiruppur
Thiruvallur
Sriperumbudur
Arakkonam
Krishnagiri
Dharmapuri
Tiruvannamalai
Nilgiris
Pollachi
Perambalur
Chidambaram
Mayiladuthurai
Nagapattinam
Ramanathapuram
Tenkasi
Tripura West
Tripura East
Mathura
Jaunpur
Deoria
Shahjahanpur
Etawah
Pratapgarh
Kushi Nagar
Farrukhabad
Gonda
Bahraich
Sambhal
Ballia
Badaun
Nagina
Dhaurahra
Bhadohi
Kairana
Badri Ram Jakhar
Harish Choudhary
Devji Patel
Tarachand Bhagora
Gopal Singh
Dushyant Singh
Prem Das Rai
Palanimanickam.S.S
Chitthan N S V
Jeyadurai.S.R
Gandhiselvan.S
Aaron Rashid.J.M
Krishnasswamy M
Sankar Adhi
Sivasami C
Venugopal.P
Baalu T R
Jagathrakshakan
Sugavanam. E.G.
Thamaraiselvan. R
Venugopal.D
Raja A
Sugumar.K
Napoleon,D.
Thirumaavalavan, Thol
Maniyan O.S.
Vijayan A K S
Sivakumar @ J.K. Ritheesh. K
Lingam P
Khagen Das
Baju Ban Riyan
Jayant Chaudhary
Dhananjay Singh
Gorakh Prasad Jaiswal
Mithlesh
Premdas
Rajkumari Ratna Singh
Ku. Ratanjeet Pratap Narayan Singh
Salman Khursheed
Beni Prasad Verma
Kamal Kishor
Dr. Shafiqur Rahman Barq
Neeraj Shekhar
Dharmendra Yadav
Yashvir Singh
Kunwar Jitin Prasad
Gorakhnath
Tabassum Begum
State Constituency
Appendix 3: Low / No Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Winner in 2009
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
Amroha
Baghpat
Bulandshahr
Hathras
Firozabad
Mainpuri
Etah
Aonla
Pilibhit
Hardoi
Misrikh
Unnao
Mohanlalganj
Rae Bareli
Amethi
Sultanpur
Kannauj
Akbarpur
Jalaun
Hamirpur
Banda
Fatehpur
Kaushambi
Phulpur
Barabanki
Ambedkar Nagar
Kaiserganj
Shrawasti
Domariyaganj
Basti
Sant Kabir Nagar
Maharajganj
Bansgaon
Lalganj
Ghosi
Salempur
Machhlishahr
Ghazipur
Robertsganj
Tehri Garhwal
Garhwal
Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar
Hardwar
Cooch Behar
Ranaghat
Bangaon
Joynagar
Ghatal
Devendra Nagpal
Ajit Singh
Kamlesh
Sarika Singh
Akhilesh Yadav
Mulayam Singh Yadav
Kalyan Singh R O Madholi
Menka Gandhi
Feroze Varun Gandhi
Usha Verma
Ashok Kumar Rawat
Annutandon
Sushila Saroj
Sonia Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi
Dr.Sanjay Singh
Akhilesh Yadav
Rajaram Pal
Ghansyam Anuragi
Vijay Bahadur Singh
R. K. Singh Patel
Rakesh Sachan
Shailendra Kumar
Kapil Muni Karwariya
P.L.Punia
Rakesh Pandey
Brijbhushan Sharan Singh
Vinay Kumar Alias Vinnu
Jagdambika Pal
Arvind Kumar Chaudhary
Bhisma Shankar Alias Kushal Tiwari
Harsh Vardhan
Kamlesh Paswan
Dr. Baliram
Dara Singh Chauhan
Ramashankar Rajbhar
Tufani Saroj
Radhey Mohan Singh
Pakauri Lal
Vijay Bahuguna
Satpal Maharaj
K.C. Singh Baba
Harish Rawat
Nripendra Nath Roy
Sucharu Ranjan Haldar
Gobinda Chandra Naskar
Dr. Tarun Mondal
Gurudas Dasgupta
State Constituency
Appendix 3: Low / No Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Winner in 2009
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
Alipurduars
Jalpaiguri
Darjeeling
Raiganj
Maldaha Uttar
Maldaha Dakshin
Jangipur
Baharampur
Murshidabad
Krishnanagar
Barrackpore
Dum Dum
Barasat
Basirhat
Mathurapur
Diamond Harbour
Jadavpur
Uluberia
Srerampur
Hooghly
Arambagh
Tamluk
Kanthi
Jhargram
Medinipur
Bankura
Bishnupur
Bardhaman Purba
Bolpur
Birbhum
Manohar Tirkey
Mahendra Kumar Roy
Jaswant Singh
Deepa Dasmunsi
Mausam Noor
Abu Hasem Khan Choudhury
Pranab Mukherjee
Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury
Abdul Mannan Hossain
Tapas Paul
Dinesh Trivedi
Sougata Ray
Kakali Ghosh Dastidar
Sk. Nurul Islam
Choudhury Mohan Jatua
Somendra Nath Mitra
Kabir Suman
Sultan Ahmed
Kalyan Banerjee
Dr. Ratna De (Nag)
Malik Sakti Mohan
Adhikari Suvendu
Adhikari Sisir Kumar
Pulin Bihari Baske
Prabodh Panda
Acharia Basudeb
Susmita Bauri
Anup Kumar Saha
Doctor Ram Chandra Dome
Satabdi Roy
State Constituency
Appendix 3: Low / No Impact Constituencies
www.esocialsciences.com
Winner in 2009
Appendix 4: State wise data
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Hyderabad
Visakhapatnam
Vijayawada
Guntur
Rajahmundry
Kakinada
Tirupati
Nellore
Karimnagar
Narasaraopet
Chittoor
Nizamabad
Vizianagaram
Ongole
Mahbubnagar
Medak
Warangal
Kurnool
Eluru
Anantapur
Srikakulam
Machilipatnam
Malkajgiri
Chelvella
Aruku
Adilabad
Peddapalle
Zahirabad
Secundrabad
Nagarkurnool
Nalgonda
Bhongir
Mahabubabad
Khammam
Anakapalli
Amalapuram
Narsapuram
Bapatla
Nandyal
Hindupur
Kadapa
Rajampet
Shri. Bishnu Pada Ray
Asaduddin Owaisi
Daggubati Purandeswari
Lagadapati Raja Gopal
Rayapati Sambasiva Rao
Aruna Kumar Vundavalli
M.M.Pallamraju
Chinta Mohan
Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy
Ponnam Prabhakar
Modugula Venugopala Reddy
Naramalli Sivaprasad
Madhu Yaskhi Goud
Jhansi Lakshmi Botcha
Magunta Srinivasulu Reddy
K. Chandrasekhar Rao
Vijaya Shanthi .M
Rajaiah Siricilla
Kotla Jaya Surya Prakash Reddy
Kavuri Sambasiva Rao
Anantha Venkata Rami Reddy
Killi Krupa Rani
Konakalla Narayana Rao
Sarvey Sathyanarayana
Jaipal Reddy Sudini
Kishore Chandra Suryanarayana Deo Vyricherla
Rathod Ramesh
Dr.G.Vivekanand
Suresh Kumar Shetkar
Anjan Kumar Yadav M
Dr. Manda Jagannath
Gutha Sukender Reddy
Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy
P. Balram
Nama Nageswara Rao
Sabbam Hari
G.V.Harsha Kumar
Bapiraju Kanumuru
Panabaka Lakshmi
S.P.Y.Reddy
Kristappa Nimmala
Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy
Annayyagari Sai Prathap
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Andhra Pradesh
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
www.esocialsciences.com
Arunachal West
Arunachal East
Dibrugarh
Silchar
Tezpur
Lakhimpur
Barpeta
Gauhati
Jorhat
Karimganj
Autonomous District
Kaliabor
Dhubri
Kokrajhar
Mangaldoi
Nowgong
Pataliputra
Patna Sahib
Muzaffarpur
Buxar
Gaya
Siwan
Bhagalpur
Katihar
Darbhanga
Madhubani
Valmiki Nagar
Ujiarpur
Karakat
Paschim Champaran
Purvi Champaran
Sheohar
Sitamarhi
Jhanjharpur
Supaul
Araria
Kishanganj
Purnia
Madhepura
Vaishali
Gopalganj
Maharajganj
Saran
Takam Sanjoy
Ninong Ering
Paban Singh Ghatowar
Kabindra Purkayastha
Joseph Toppo
Ranee Narah
Ismail Hussain
Bijoya Chakravarty
Bijoy Krishna Handique
Lalit Mohan Suklabaidya
Biren Singh Engti
Dip Gogoi
Badruddin Ajmal
Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary
Ramen Deka
Rajen Gohain
Ranjan Prasad Yadav
Shatrughan Sinha
Captain Jai Narayan Prasad Nishad
Jagada Nand Singh
Hari Manjhi
Om Prakash Yadav
Syed Shahnawaz Hussain
Nikhil Kumar Choudhary
Kirti Azad
Hukmadeo Narayan Yadav
Baidyanath Prasad Mahto
Aswamedh Devi
Mahabali Singh
Dr. Sanjay Jaiswal
Radha Mohan Singh
Rama Devi
Arjun Roy
Mangani Lal Mandal
Vishwa Mohan Kumar
Pradeep Kumar Singh
Mohammad Asrarul Haque
Uday Singh Alias Pappu Singh
Sharad Yadav
Raghuvansh Prasad Singh
Purnmasi Ram
Uma Shanaker Singh
Lalu Prasad
High Impact
Low Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Bihar
Hajipur
Samastipur
Begusarai
Khagaria
Banka
Munger
Nalanda
Arrah
Sasaram
Jahanabad
Aurangabad
Nawada
Jamui
Chandigarh
Raipur
Bilaspur
Korba
Durg
Raigarh
Sarguja
Janjgir-Champa
Rajnandgaon
Mahasamund
Bastar
Kanker
Dadar & Nagar Haveli
Daman & Diu
North Goa
South Goa
Surat
Rajkot
Bhavnagar
Jamnagar
Kheda
Valsad
Panchmahal
Junagadh
Ram Sundar Das
Maheshwar Hazari
Dr. Monazir Hassan
Dinesh Chandra Yadav
Digvijay Singh
Rajiv Ranjan Singh Alias Lalan Singh
Kaushalendra Kumar
Meena Singh
Meira Kumar
Jagdish Sharma
Sushil Kumar Singh
Bhola Singh
Bhudeo Choudhary
Pawan Kumar Bansal
Ramesh Bais
Dilip Singh Judev
Charan Das Mahant
Saroj Pandey
Vishnu Deo Sai
Murarilal Singh
Shrimati Kamla Devi Patle
Madhusudan Yadav
Chandulal Sahu (Chandu Bhaiya)
Baliram Kashyap
Sohan Potai
Patel Natubhai Gomanbhai
Lalubhai Patel
Shripad Yesso Naik
Cosme Francisco Caitano Sardinha
Shrimati Darshana Vikram Jardosh
Kuvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavalia
Rajendrasinh Ghanshyamsinh Rana (Rajubhai Rana)
Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Madam
Dinsha Patel
Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel
Chauhan Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh
Solanki Dinubhai Boghabhai
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
Medium impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Chandigarh
Chattisgarh
Daman & Diu
Goa
Gujarat
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Bharuch
Banaskantha
Anand
Mahesana
Sabarkantha
Patan
Surendranagar
Ahmedabad East
Ahmedabad West
Amreli
Porbandar
Vadodara
Gandhinagar
Bardoli
Kachchh
Dahod
Chhota Udaipur
Navsari
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Ambala
Sirsa
Hisar
Kurukshetra
Karnal
Bhiwani-Mahendragarh
Rohtak
Sonipat
Mandi
Kangra
Hamirpur
Shimla
Srinagar
Jammu
Anantnag
Udhampur
Ladakh
Baramulla
Ranchi
Jamshedpur
Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava
Gadhvi Mukeshkumar Bheiravdanji
Solanki Bharatbhai Madhavsinh
Patel Jayshreeben Kanubhai
Chauhan Mahendrasinh
Jagdish Thakor
Koli Patel Somabhai Gandalal
Harin Pathak
Dr. Solanki Kiritbhai Premajibhai
Kachhadia Naranbhai
Radadiya Vitthalbhai Hansrajbhai
Balkrishna Khanderao Shukla (Balu Shukla)
L.K.Advani
Chaudhari Tusharbhai Amrasinhbhai
Jat Poonamben Veljibhai
Dr. Prabha Kishor Taviad
Rathwa Ramsingbhai Patalbhai
C. R. Patil
Inderjit Singh
Avtar Singh Bhadana
Selja
Ashok Tanwar
Bhajan Lal S/O Kheraj
Naveen Jindal
Arvind Kumar Sharma
Shruti Choudhry
Deepender Singh
Jitender Singh
Virbhadra Singh
Dr. Rajan Sushant
Anurag Singh Thakur
Virender Kashyap
Farooq Abdullah
Madan Lal Sharma
Mirza Mehboob Beg
Ch. Lal Singh
Hassan Khan
Sharief Ud Din Shariq
Subodh Kant Sahay
Arjun Munda
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Dhanbad
Hazaribagh
Godda
Dumka
Singhbhum
Rajmahal
Chatra
Kodarma
Giridih
Khunti
Lohardaga
Palamau
Mysore
Dakshina Kannada
Gulbarga
Bellary
Davanagere
Udupi Chikmagalur
Tumkur
Uttara Kannada
Bangalore Rural
Bangalore North
Bangalore Central
Bangalore South
Bidar
Bagalkot
Dharwad
Chamarajanagar
Belgaum
Bijapur
Shimoga
Raichur
Mandya
Chikkodi
Koppal
Haveri
Hassan
Chitradurga
Chikkballapur
Kolar
Thiruvananthapuram
Ernakulam
Palakkad
Kottayam
Thrissur
Pashupati Nath Singh
Yashwant Sinha
Nishikant Dubey
Shibu Soren
Madhu Kora
Devidhan Besra
Inder Singh Namdhari
Babulal Marandi
Ravindra Kumar Pandey
Karia Munda
Sudarshan Bhagat
Kameshwar Baitha
Adagur H Vishwanath
Nalin Kumar Kateel
Mallikarjun Kharge
J. Shantha
G.M. Siddeswara
D.V.Sadananda Gowda
G.S. Basavaraj
Anantkumar Hegde
H.D.Kumaraswamy
D. B. Chandre Gowda
P. C. Mohan
Ananth Kumar
N.Dharam Singh
Gaddigoudar P.C.
Pralhad Joshi
R.Dhruvanarayana
Angadi Suresh Channabasappa
Ramesh Chandappa Jigajinagi
B.Y. Raghavendra
Pakkirappa.S.
N Cheluvaraya Swamy @ Swamygowda
Katti Ramesh Vishwanath
Shivaramagouda Shivanagouda
Udasi Shivkumar Chanabasappa
H. D. Devegowda
Janardhana Swamy
M.Veerappa Moily
K.H.Muniyappa
Shashi Tharoor
Prof. K V Thomas
M.B. Rajesh
Jose K.Mani (Karingozheckal)
P C Chacko
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
High impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Karnataka
Kerala
Alappuzha
Kollam
Malappuram
Kozhikode
Kannur
Mavelikkara
Kasaragod
Vadakara
Alathur
Chalakudy
Pathanamthitta
Attingal
Wayanad
Ponnani
Idukki
Lakshadweep
Indore
Bhopal
Gwalior
Jabalpur
Ujjain
Rewa
Satna
Dewas
Dhar
Sagar
Hoshangabad
Khandwa
Balaghat
Khargone
Ratlam
Shahdol
Mandsour
Morena
Bhind
Guna
Tikamgarh
Damoh
Khajuraho
Sidhi
Mandla
Chhindwara
Vidisha
Rajgarh
K.C Venugopal
N.Peethambarakurup
E. Ahamed
M.K. Raghavan
K. Sudhakaran
Kodikkunnil Suresh
P Karunakaran
Mullappally Ramachandran
P.K Biju
K.P. Dhanapalan
Anto Antony Punnathaniyil
Adv. A Sampath
M.I. Shanavas
E.T. Muhammed Basheer
Adv. P.T Thomas
Hamdullah Sayeed
Sumitra Mahajan (Tai)
Kailash Joshi
Yashodhara Raje Scindia
Rakesh Singh
Guddu Premchand
Deoraj Singh Patel
Ganesh Singh
Sajjan Singh Verma
Gajendra Singh Rajukhedi
Bhupendra Singh
Uday Pratap Singh
Arun Subhashchandra Yadav
K. D. Deshmukh
Makansingh Solanki (Babuji)
Kantilal Bhuria
Rajesh Nandini Singh
Meenakshi Natrajan
Narendra Singh Tomar
Ashok Argal
Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia
Virendra Kumar
Shivraj Bhaiya
Jeetendra Singh Bundela
Govind Prasad Mishra
Basori Singh Masram
Kamal Nath
Sushma Swaraj
Narayansingh Amlabe
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Lakshadweep
Madhya Pradesh
Betul
Pune
Nagpur
Aurangabad
Nashik
Thane
Kolhapur
Kalyan
Latur
Dhule
Sangli
Amravati
Jalna
Ahmadnagar
Osmanabad
Chandrapur
Mumbai North
Mumbai North West
Mumbai North East
Mumbai North Central
Mumbai South Central
Mumbai South
Yavatmal-Washim
Parbhani
Wardha
Solapur
Nanded
Akola
Jalgaon
Ratnagiri - Sindhudurg
Bhiwandi
Palghar
Maval
Nandurbar
Raver
Buldhana
Ramtek
Bhandara - Gondiya
Gadchiroli-Chimur
Hingoli
Dindori
Raigad
Baramati
Shirur
Shirdi
Beed
Jyoti Dhurve
Kalmadi Suresh
Muttemwar Vilasrao Baburaoji
Chandrakant Khaire
Sameer Bhujbal
Dr.Sanjeev Ganesh Naik
Sadashivrao Dadoba Mandlik
Anand Prakash Paranjape
Awale Jaywant Gangaram
Sonawane Pratap Narayanrao
Pratik Prakashbapu Patil
Adsul Anandrao Vithoba
Danve Raosaheb Dadarao
Gandhi Dilipkumar Mansukhlal
Patil Padamsinha Bajirao
Ahir Hansaraj Gangaram
Sanjay Brijkishorlal Nirupam
Ad.Kamat Gurudas Vasant
Sanjay Dina Patil
Dutt Priya Sunil
Eknath M. Gaikwad
Deora Milind Murli
Bhavana Gawali (Patil)
Adv. Dudhgaonkar Ganeshrao Nagorao
Datta Meghe
Shinde Sushilkumar Sambhajirao
Khatgaonkar Patil Bhaskarrao Bapurao
Dhotre Sanjay Shamrao
A.T. Nana Patil
Dr.Nilesh Narayan Rane
Taware Suresh Kashinath
Jadhav Baliram Sukur
Babar Gajanan Dharmshi
Gavit Manikrao Hodlya
Haribhau Madhav Jawale
Jadhav Prataprao Ganpatrao
Wasnik Mukul Balkrishna
Patel Praful Manoharbhai
Kowase Marotrao Sainuji
Subhash Bapurao Wankhede
Chavan Harishchandra Deoram
Anant Geete
Supriya Sule
Adhalrao Shivaji Dattatray
Wakchaure Bhausaheb Rajaram
Munde Gopinathrao Pandurang
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Maharashtra
Madha
Satara
Hatkanangle
Inner Manipur
Outer Manipur
Shillong
Tura
Mizoram
Nagaland
Chandni Chowk
North East Delhi
East Delhi
New Delhi
North West Delhi
West Delhi
South Delhi
Sambalpur
Cuttack
Bhubaneswar
Berhampur
Balasore
Sundargarh
Bargarh
Keonjhar
Mayurbhanj
Bhadrak
Jajpur
Dhenkanal
Bolangir
Kalahandi
Nabarangpur
Kandhamal
Kendrapara
Jagatsinghpur
Puri
Pawar Sharadchandra Govindrao
Bhonsle Shrimant Chh. Udyanraje Pratapsinhmaharaj
Shetti Raju Alias Devappa Anna
Dr. Thokchom Meinya
Thangso Baite
Vincent H Pala
Agatha K. Sangma
C.L.Ruala
C.M. Chang
Kapil Sibal
Jai Prakash Agarwal
Sandeep Dikshit
Ajay Makan
Krishna Tirath
Mahabal Mishra
Ramesh Kumar
Amarnath Pradhan
Bhartruhari Mahtab
Prasanna Kumar Patasani
Sidhant Mohapatra
Srikant Kumar Jena
Hemanand Biswal
Sanjay Bhoi
Yashbant Narayan Singh Laguri
Laxman Tudu
Arjun Charan Sethi
Mohan Jena
Tathagata Satpathy
Kalikesh Narayan Singh Deo
Bhakta Charan Das
Pradeep Kumar Majhi
Rudramadhab Ray
Baijayant Panda
Bibhu Prasad Tarai
Pinaki Misra
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Nagaland
NCT OF Delhi
Orissa
Aska
Koraput
Puducherry
Ludhiana
Amritsar
Hoshiarpur
Patiala
Gurdaspur
Faridkot
Fatehgarh Sahib
Sangrur
Ferozpur
Khadoor Sahib
Anandpur Sahib
Jalandhar
Bathinda
Jaipur
Jodhpur
Kota
Bikaner
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur
Bhilwara
Ganganagar
Sikar
Jhunjhunu
Chittorgarh
Udaipur
Ajmer
Churu
Jaipur Rural
Alwar
Bharatpur
Karauli-Dholpur
Dausa
Nagaur
Pali
Barmer
Jalore
Banswara
Rajsamand
Jhalawar-Baran
Nityananda Pradhan
Jayaram Pangi
Narayanasamy
Manish Tewari
Navjot Singh Sidhu
Santosh Chowdhary
Preneet Kaur
Partap Singh Bajwa
Paramjit Kaur Gulshan
Sukhdev Singh
Vijay Inder Singla
Sher Singh Ghubaya
Dr. Rattan Singh Ajnala
Ravneet Singh
Mohinder Singh Kaypee
Harsimrat Kaur Badal
Mahesh Joshi
Chandresh Kumari
Ijyaraj Singh
Arjun Ram Meghwal
Namo Narain
Dr. C. P. Joshi
Bharat Ram Meghwal
Mahadev Singh
Sheesh Ram Ola
(Dr.)Girija Vyas
Raghuvir Singh Meena
Sachin Pilot
Ram Singh Kaswan
Lal Chand Kataria
Jitendra Singh
Ratan Singh
Khiladi Lal Bairwa
Kirodi Lal
Dr. Jyoti Mirdha
Badri Ram Jakhar
Harish Choudhary
Devji Patel
Tarachand Bhagora
Gopal Singh
Dushyant Singh
No Impact
No Impact
Medium impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Puducherry
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Coimbatore
Salem
Tirunelveli
Erode
Madurai
Viluppuram
Virudhunagar
Kancheepuram
Sivaganga
Chennai North
Chennai South
Chennai Central
Thanjavur
Dindigul
Thoothukkudi
Namakkal
Theni
Vellore
Kanniyakumari
Cuddalore
Tiruchirappalli
Karur
Arani
Kallakurichi
Tiruppur
Thiruvallur
Sriperumbudur
Arakkonam
Krishnagiri
Dharmapuri
Tiruvannamalai
Nilgiris
Pollachi
Perambalur
Chidambaram
Mayiladuthurai
Nagapattinam
Ramanathapuram
Tenkasi
Tripura West
Tripura East
Prem Das Rai
Natarajan.P.R.
Semmalai S
Ramasubbu S
Ganeshamurthi.A.
Alagiri M.K
Anandan M
Manicka Tagore
Viswanathan.P
Chidambaram P
Elangovan T.K.S
Rajendran C
Dayanidhi Maran
Palanimanickam.S.S
Chitthan N S V
Jeyadurai.S.R
Gandhiselvan.S
Aaron Rashid.J.M
Abdul Rahman
Helen Davidson J
Alagiri S
Kumar.P
Thambidurai.M
Krishnasswamy M
Sankar Adhi
Sivasami C
Venugopal.P
Baalu T R
Jagathrakshakan
Sugavanam. E.G.
Thamaraiselvan. R
Venugopal.D
Raja A
Sugumar.K
Napoleon,D.
Thirumaavalavan, Thol
Maniyan O.S.
Vijayan A K S
Sivakumar @ J.K. Ritheesh. K
Lingam P
Khagen Das
Baju Ban Riyan
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Low Impact
No Impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Sikkim
Lucknow
Kanpur
Gautam Buddh Nagar
Allahabad
Varanasi
Agra
Ghaziabad
Meerut
Bareilly
Aligarh
Moradabad
Muzaffarnagar
Chandauli
Kheri
Mathura
Jaunpur
Deoria
Shahjahanpur
Etawah
Pratapgarh
Kushi Nagar
Farrukhabad
Gonda
Bahraich
Sambhal
Ballia
Badaun
Gorakhpur
Jhansi
Saharanpur
Rampur
Azamgarh
Sitapur
Faizabad
Bijnor
Fatehpur Sikri
Mirzapur
Nagina
Dhaurahra
Bhadohi
Kairana
Amroha
Baghpat
Bulandshahr
Hathras
Firozabad
Mainpuri
Lal Ji Tandon
Sri Prakash Jaiswal
Surendra Singh Nagar
Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh Alias Mani Ji
Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi
Dr. Ramshankar
Rajnath Singh
Rajendra Agarwal
Praveen Singh Aron
Raj Kumari Chauhan
Mohammed Azharuddin
Kadir Rana
Ramkishun
Zafar Ali Naqvi
Jayant Chaudhary
Dhananjay Singh
Gorakh Prasad Jaiswal
Mithlesh
Premdas
Rajkumari Ratna Singh
Ku. Ratanjeet Pratap Narayan Singh
Salman Khursheed
Beni Prasad Verma
Kamal Kishor
Dr. Shafiqur Rahman Barq
Neeraj Shekhar
Dharmendra Yadav
Adityanath
Pradeep Kumar Jain (Aditya)
Jagdish Singh Rana
Jaya Prada Nahata
Ramakant Yadav
Kaisar Jahan
Nirmal Khatri
Sanjay Singh Chauhan
Seema Upadhyay
Bal Kumar Patel
Yashvir Singh
Kunwar Jitin Prasad
Gorakhnath
Tabassum Begum
Devendra Nagpal
Ajit Singh
Kamlesh
Sarika Singh
Akhilesh Yadav
Mulayam Singh Yadav
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Uttar Pradesh
Etah
Aonla
Pilibhit
Hardoi
Misrikh
Unnao
Mohanlalganj
Rae Bareli
Amethi
Sultanpur
Kannauj
Akbarpur
Jalaun
Hamirpur
Banda
Fatehpur
Kaushambi
Phulpur
Barabanki
Ambedkar Nagar
Kaiserganj
Shrawasti
Domariyaganj
Basti
Sant Kabir Nagar
Maharajganj
Bansgaon
Lalganj
Ghosi
Salempur
Machhlishahr
Ghazipur
Robertsganj
Almora
Tehri Garhwal
Garhwal
Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar
Hardwar
Howrah
Balurghat
Kolkata Dakshin
Kolkata Uttar
Cooch Behar
Burdwan - Durgapur
Asansol
Kalyan Singh R O Madholi
Menka Gandhi
Feroze Varun Gandhi
Usha Verma
Ashok Kumar Rawat
Annutandon
Sushila Saroj
Sonia Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi
Dr.Sanjay Singh
Akhilesh Yadav
Rajaram Pal
Ghansyam Anuragi
Vijay Bahadur Singh
R. K. Singh Patel
Rakesh Sachan
Shailendra Kumar
Kapil Muni Karwariya
P.L.Punia
Rakesh Pandey
Brijbhushan Sharan Singh
Vinay Kumar Alias Vinnu
Jagdambika Pal
Arvind Kumar Chaudhary
Bhisma Shankar Alias Kushal Tiwari
Harsh Vardhan
Kamlesh Paswan
Dr. Baliram
Dara Singh Chauhan
Ramashankar Rajbhar
Tufani Saroj
Radhey Mohan Singh
Pakauri Lal
Pradeep Tamta
Vijay Bahuguna
Satpal Maharaj
K.C. Singh Baba
Harish Rawat
Ambica Banerjee
Prasanta Kumar Majumdar
Mamata Banerjee
Sudip Bandyopadhyay
Nripendra Nath Roy
Sk. Saidul Haque
Bansa Gopal Chowdhury
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
Purulia
Ranaghat
Bangaon
Joynagar
Ghatal
Alipurduars
Jalpaiguri
Darjeeling
Raiganj
Maldaha Uttar
Maldaha Dakshin
Jangipur
Baharampur
Murshidabad
Krishnanagar
Barrackpore
Dum Dum
Barasat
Basirhat
Mathurapur
Diamond Harbour
Jadavpur
Uluberia
Srerampur
Hooghly
Arambagh
Tamluk
Kanthi
Jhargram
Medinipur
Bankura
Bishnupur
Bardhaman Purba
Bolpur
Birbhum
Narahari Mahato
Sucharu Ranjan Haldar
Gobinda Chandra Naskar
Dr. Tarun Mondal
Gurudas Dasgupta
Manohar Tirkey
Mahendra Kumar Roy
Jaswant Singh
Deepa Dasmunsi
Mausam Noor
Abu Hasem Khan Choudhury
Pranab Mukherjee
Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury
Abdul Mannan Hossain
Tapas Paul
Dinesh Trivedi
Sougata Ray
Kakali Ghosh Dastidar
Sk. Nurul Islam
Choudhury Mohan Jatua
Somendra Nath Mitra
Kabir Suman
Sultan Ahmed
Kalyan Banerjee
Dr. Ratna De (Nag)
Malik Sakti Mohan
Adhikari Suvendu
Adhikari Sisir Kumar
Pulin Bihari Baske
Prabodh Panda
Acharia Basudeb
Susmita Bauri
Anup Kumar Saha
Doctor Ram Chandra Dome
Satabdi Roy
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Appendix 4: State wise data
www.esocialsciences.com
Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact
INC
BJP
SP
BSP
JD(U)
AITC
DMK
CPM
BJD
SHS
ADMK
NCP
TDP
RLD
CPI
RJD
SAD
JD(S)
JKN
AIFB
JMM
MUL
RSP
TRS
AGP
AIMIM
AUDF
BOPF
BVA
HJCBL
JVM
KEC(M)
MDMK
NPF
SDF
SWP
VCK
Appendix 5: Party wise impact
PARTYIMPACT LEVEL
TOTALHIGH MEDIUM LOW NO
75
44
2
4
2
3
3
2
3
3
4
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
28
18
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
27
11
4
3
3
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
76
43
15
11
18
16
10
10
11
6
4
4
3
3
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
206
116
23
21
20
19
18
16
14
11
9
9
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
www.esocialsciences.com
IRIS Knowledge Foundation is a public service initiative of IRIS Business Services Limited. The
Foundation best known for its social sciences research portal www.esocialsciences.com, seeks to
encourage research in the social sciences. We are committed to promoting younger researchers and new
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commentary and resources and encourages discourse even as we keep scholars posted on current
developments in the field.
Media Contact: Parag Pilankar (Phone: +91 9920593555, email: ) A copy of the study may be downloaded from .
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The team that carried out this study includes Parag Pilankar, Nitasha Rana, Mayur Narvekar, under the guidance of S
Swaminathan. The Foundation is grateful to Dr. S. Chandrasekhar, Associate Professor, IGIDR and Dr. Subho Ray, President, IAMAI
for their comments on an earlier version of this report. Any error though is entirely attributable to the team which worked on the
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