Social Support benefit

•Review of the progress of the new benefit

•Clarification of Proxies

Proxy testing

• Why Proxies?

• How were Proxies choosen?

• How do they work?

Red Door

ProxyLikely to be

poor Rural

Likely to be poor

Urban

Score Rural

Score Urban

59.1% 42.0% -0.43 -0.26

How do Proxies work?

Has a dog 33.6% 16.4% 0.3 0.19

Has blond hair

16.4% 4.8% 0.3 0.3

Wears a kilt 34.9% 16.8% 0.25 0.23

Disabled in the hhs

Phone

Car

Colour TV

Value of the Proxy

• A proxy has no value in itself.

• HBS does show differences by age of the car, however this has little relevance when analysed with all the other variables and using a single proxy score for a car produces a better result.

• Even things like a red front door could be a good proxy, except there are no data and they can be painted too easily!

Key facts about Proxies

• Proxies are not intuitive they are objective.

• Proxies only work as a package it is impossible to change either the proxy or the value without re-calculating the whole package.

• They cannot stay the same for ever, they should be reviewed regularly in line with the new HBS and the score adjusted.

Review of the Progress of Social Support Benefit

Progress of Social Support  quarter

Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

Column N % Count

Column N % Count

Column N % Count

Column N % Count

Successful applications 17.7%   59.7%   71.7%   75.7%  

Failed applications (income>GMI) 71.3%   32.5%   20.6%   17.0%  

Failed applications (failed proxy) .6%   2.8%   3.8%   3.2%  

Failed applications (failed art.5) .5%   2.0%   1.9%   2.1%  

Incomplete/Inconsistent applications

9.9%   3.2%   1.9%   2.0%  

Total   2632   21605   13137   12623

What do we learn

• Self targeting is working a high percentage of applicants qualify.

• Proxy testing is eliminating less than we expected.

• Exclusions on article 5 are higher than expected and we have identified two small changes to regulations.

• Incomplete documentation is OK and should reduce further.

Progress of Social Support

  Rural Urban Total

Average benefit amount per household (lei)

628.08 541.23 615.29

Average benefit amount per adult equivalent (lei)

216.72 209.91 215.82

Number of entitlements paid 16358 2826 19184

Amount due for September (lei)

10,274,120 1,529,519 11,803,639

For September

Progress compared to expectation

• 19,000 households is less than expected.

• Numbers seem to have stalled since June.

• However 5-6 raions are right on target.

Reasons• GMI is low set in 2007 on the 2006 HBS• Poor administration, lack of Sas, and budget cuts• Lack of knowledge of new benefit.

Next Steps

• Review the regulations/Legislation.

• Question the administration.

• Question the policy.

• Yearly revise the values of the proxies and the benefit.

How can Donors support the Ministry

• Let this policy have time to work and stop suggesting policy changes in the short term.

• Suggestions for changes to Proxies should always be supported by analysis of the HBS.

• If a problem is identified check the administration before jumping to suggested policy change.